Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Tarrou said:
even if they did run out of fuel it wouldn't take that long to sort it

pretty sure they have petrol stations in Ukraine
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They’ve also run out of or are running out of food, begs the question what was this convoy full of if not fuel and food as well as munitions.

do you not think the stations might already have been looted by the first lot as it takes a lot of fuel to keep tanks and trucks going.
 
If you want a good, rather up to date (2016), very long form read on how the Russian military attempts to operate…

https://www.armyupress.army.mil/por...17-07-the-russian-way-of-war-grau-bartles.pdf

A key quote from it about the Russian battalion tactical group that relates to some of the issues we’re seeing in Ukraine…

“Although BTGs have a common training program, there are still problems… logistical and maintenance issues… one reform that has not been successful was the abolition of some logistics and maintenance units in favor of private contractors. Russia is currently trying to rebuild some of its organic logistics and maintenance units, but the process is slow going. BTGs are not immune to the logistics problems that still plague the Russian military and BTG commanders still complain about them.”
 
MDFC Manager said:
Which makes the Indian stance in all of this a bit perplexing really.
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The Indian stance in short is one of keeping our chances at defending territory expansion by China and Pakistan intact. We get a lot of our arms and ammunition from Russia, and 30% of our Oil. As a net oil importing country, we can't afford to lose access to that. Increasing oil prices is anyway one of the key reasons the current government may not come to power in the next election (at least that's the hope for a lot of us).

The decision looks bizarre but the US and the West have always take a pro- Pakistan stance, and even interfered in effectively an internal reorganization of Kashmir and Ladakh at the UN level. So this Government knows that if anything escalates with Pakistan, we will have no support from the West and we'll need Russia. If things escalate with China - we can fully expect the West to sympathise and provide aid given the China-US tensions.

The government's position is understandable, but does not make it less despicable. This is an actual invasion which we have failed to condemn.
 
christy87 said:
They’ve also run out of or are running out of food, begs the question what was this convoy full of if not fuel and food as well as munitions.

do you not think the stations might already have been looted by the first lot as it takes a lot of fuel to keep tanks and trucks going.
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I just don't believe the story at all, to be honest

there is so much nonsense being posted, and this just isn't believable

although it is quite plausible that petrol stations have run out of petrol, so yeah maybe
 
Shiva87 said:
The Indian stance in short is one of keeping our chances at defending territory expansion by China and Pakistan intact. We get a lot of our arms and ammunition from Russia, and 30% of our Oil. As a net oil importing country, we can't afford to lose access to that. Increasing oil prices is anyway one of the key reasons the current government may not come to power in the next election (at least that's the hope for a lot of us).

The decision looks bizarre but the US and the West have always take a pro- Pakistan stance, and even interfered in effectively an internal reorganization of Kashmir and Ladakh at the UN level. So this Government knows that if anything escalates with Pakistan, we will have no support from the West and we'll need Russia. If things escalate with China - we can fully expect the West to sympathise and provide aid given the China-US tensions.

The government's position is understandable, but does not make it less despicable. This is an actual invasion which we have failed to condemn.
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After watching what is happening to ukraine, it is hard believe there will be any help from west apart from thoughts and prayers in case of an invasion. So, I understand the position from our government. But, our govt should provide non-military aid to people in ukraine.
 
Raoul said:
There's clearly something wrong with the 40 mile convoy of vehicles. The broader issue is that the Russians have underperformed massively on logistics, which is hampering their ability to make overall progress.
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I was watching an interview from Radio-Canada with a former KGB agent exiled in France named Sergei Jirnov, who knows Putin personally. Addressing on reports from the Pentagon of Russian soldiers sabotaging their own equipment and even defecting, Jirnov says that's good news if anything. Russia still uses a large portion of conscripts and contractors in their forces, and that means they are more likely to stop fighting when they realize what they get into according to him. I wouldn't be surprised if a number of Russian soldiers sabotaged key elements from that convoy to make it stop.
 
I’m guessing some people will know who Bald and Bankrupt is on YouTube. He was in Ukraine in the days leading up to the invasion. His latest blog shows his experience getting out of the country.

 
carvajal said:
I feel sorry for that boy. Surely is poor people who see in the army a way out and send them to die so young. Before the start of this invasion I always had the idea that Russia was one step ahead. Getting involved in American elections, cyber warfare, and a network with tentacles in many countries around them. Of course, I thought that their armed forces were extremely fearsome ( I also watched a recruitment video where everything seems very glorious and imposing), not only because of their artillery but well-prepared infantry, a high command with a clear strategic idea and effective analysts, but after weeks planning the invasion, they are surprised at its toughness, they are sent without gasoline, communicating with amateur radios, with expired food and with officers who execute you if you are injured or leaving your body to rot in a forest
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A part of me thinks that Russia has yet to send out their elite forces which is the element that is one step ahead of everyone Bar US and maybe China. How much of their entire military force constitute though we don't know. Could just be only 10% of what they have and the rest of it has just been poorly maintained and outdated. Would make sense they don't want to show their hand yet because Putin greatly underestimated Ukraine's resistance. We'll see as this war drags on.
 
atkar83 said:
https://www.npr.org/2022/03/01/1083...talled-on-its-way-to-kyiv-a-u-s-official-says

It's not a random twitter message. Quite a few reputable sources have said US Intelligence has said the convoy has stalled. It hasn't moved in a day or two, I doubt thats on purpose
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Another possibility is that it's a strategic threatening pause. There's an awful lot of death on the way in that convoy. It's not just the Putin playbook but a pressure tactic of yore to ramp up threat to the max to bend the enemy's will before they enter the negotiating room.
 
Needham said:
Another possibility is that it's a strategic threatening pause. There's an awful lot of death on the way in that convoy. It's not just the Putin playbook but a pressure tactic of yore to ramp up threat to the max to bend the enemy's will before they enter the negotiating room.
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Very likely. However, I do not see where the negotiations could lead. It is a deadlock.
 
Water Melon said:
Very likely. However, I do not see where the negotiations could lead. It is a deadlock.
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I think the hope from the russian side is something along the lines of:
It's clear NATO won't commit troops
It's clear there won't be a no fly zone
We have the artilliaty in place to destroy Kyiv and kill a lot of people
So give us east of the river and the coastline or we destroy Kyiv and kill zelenskiy before we come back next week with the artilliaty around dinpro and ask the same.

I'm not sure I see many leaders facing what's coming not agreeing to whatever just to stop the impending massacre
 
Shiva87 said:
The Indian stance in short is one of keeping our chances at defending territory expansion by China and Pakistan intact. We get a lot of our arms and ammunition from Russia, and 30% of our Oil. As a net oil importing country, we can't afford to lose access to that. Increasing oil prices is anyway one of the key reasons the current government may not come to power in the next election (at least that's the hope for a lot of us).

The decision looks bizarre but the US and the West have always take a pro- Pakistan stance, and even interfered in effectively an internal reorganization of Kashmir and Ladakh at the UN level. So this Government knows that if anything escalates with Pakistan, we will have no support from the West and we'll need Russia. If things escalate with China - we can fully expect the West to sympathise and provide aid given the China-US tensions.

The government's position is understandable, but does not make it less despicable. This is an actual invasion which we have failed to condemn.
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Hard to know how true this is, if this happens it would only be due to the effect of the Indian diaspora and not due to any goodwill towards the Indian government or policy-makers. Think the Indian government should provide some humanitarian assistance to Ukraine, even if it was token, as the world's largest democracy.

With that said, no one in the West cares about Pakistan anymore after Bin Laden, apart from the fact they have nukes. Any intervention from the West in an India-Pakistan conflict would likely be along the lines of trying to stop any nuclear conflict from occurring.
 
sun_tzu said:
I think the hope from the russian side is something along the lines of:
It's clear NATO won't commit troops
It's clear there won't be a no fly zone
We have the artilliaty in place to destroy Kyiv and kill a lot of people
So give us east of the river and the coastline or we destroy Kyiv and kill zelenskiy before we come back next week with the artilliaty around dinpro and ask the same.

I'm not sure I see many leaders facing what's coming not agreeing to whatever just to stop the impending massacre
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I believe this is true. Which basically means we are not any closer to resolution.

BTW NYT’s The Daily podcast had one yesterday where they interviewed three Ukrainian men who had to stay in the country as they were in the 18-60. The conversation with the first two are particularly harrowing, just regular folk who never intended to participate in any war, had regular everyday jobs in marketing/art. The second one wanted to flee but got to the border too late, I can’t imagine what these people must be going through.

Also the image of a woman having to part with her husband because they wouldn’t let him out anymore is something I cannot erase from my mind either.
 
Tarrou said:
I just don't believe the story at all, to be honest

there is so much nonsense being posted, and this just isn't believable

although it is quite plausible that petrol stations have run out of petrol, so yeah maybe
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Yeah, I agree it sounds like nonsense. Russia could sweep across the Ukraine and destroy all resistance in a matter of days if that was their plan, but they obviously don't want to just kill everyone and destroy everything if they don't need to.

It's more likely a threat, surely.
 
Camilo said:
Yeah, I agree it sounds like nonsense. Russia could sweep across the Ukraine and destroy all resistance in a matter of days if that was their plan, but they obviously don't want to just kill everyone and destroy everything if they don't need to.

It's more likely a threat, surely.
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No chance
 
Camilo said:
Yeah, I agree it sounds like nonsense. Russia could sweep across the Ukraine and destroy all resistance in a matter of days if that was their plan, but they obviously don't want to just kill everyone and destroy everything if they don't need to.

It's more likely a threat, surely.
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The nazifier was thinking that he could just roll over. He underestimated Ukraine's resources and determination. He was also probably hoping to see more welcome from general population. Heavy bombardment to destroy everyone has never been the plan. Now he is in a deadlock. If he goes ahead all guns blazing, there will be many thousands dead and probably even tougher sanctions. Stepping back is not an option either as sanctions are just kicking in, Russia is turning into a pariah state while it's economy is bleeding heavily already.
 
roseguy64 said:
So what's the latest? Last I saw a day or so ago was that Berdiansk fell but the remaining cities were on the seesaw/fine.

Only peeped that a load more sanctions have come in/banning from organizations.
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They took Kherson (a large city in the South) and they completed the siege of Mariupol (by meeting the forces of the DPR in the East and completing the land-bridge to Crimea). No substantial gains in the north apart from bombing Kiev and Kharkiv and some minor advnaces around Kharkiv.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
I'm not fond of Boris, and I look forward to his departure. But this is a strange post, the UK's support of Ukraine has been excellent, no word of a lie, I had a Ukrainian on discord personally thanking me (which I found a little surprising!) Britain was among the first to send not only equipment, but before the invasion a number of troops intented to assist the Ukrainians with familiarising themselves with our equipment.
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Yet it took a massive sway of public opinion against him and his party's shocking immigration stance with regard to refugees before he eventually gave in?
 
Raoul said:
There's clearly something wrong with the 40 mile convoy of vehicles. The broader issue is that the Russians have underperformed massively on logistics, which is hampering their ability to make overall progress.
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That column is as much an occupation force as an invasion force. It's full of non motorised supply packages and logistics trucks, it's an MSR. Russia had expected their first wave to meet with little resistance, complete the invasion and then move all the equipment down to start the occupation.

That hasn't happened so that column has had to pause there whilst the main invasion force changes approach to one of artillery and aerial bombardment. Once they feel the Ukrainian forces are sufficiently depleted they will have a second try at moving into Kyiv, and only once that's complete will that column start to move.

There are obviously problems with Russian logistics but I'm not convinced that's why the column has stalled.
 
TMDaines said:
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I think there is a probability of the West thinking the opposition to Putin is much stronger than it actually is. The media loves the stories about demonstrations and Russians wanting the leave the country, but in reality I expect the general population still very much believes what the media and Putin tells them.
 
hellhunter said:
No chance
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Depends on Putin end game. If this war continues for a year or two he can take it all. This of course is economical suicide and I don't believe he'll commit to that.

Most likely his game is to overthrow the government and take the East.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Depends on Putin end game. If this war continues for a year or two he can take it all. This of course is economical suicide and I don't believe he'll commit to that.

Most likely his game is to overthrow the government and take the East.
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don't think they can even continue for a few months honestly
 
not playing devil’s advocate but how many more days do russia need to survive whilst still invading before the majority of westerners shift their focus elsewhere and largely forget about it? the bbc website is still very dominated by the war, as are the new channels, except when the sky presenter smiles and says “now for a quick look at the weather.”

but how long before other stories start to filter to the top of the page?
 
Just wondering whether China sees this as an opportunity from a commercial/economical perspective to gain a foothold in Russia. With the Oil companies pulling out, talks of apple pullng out and countless others commercial companies, it's probably more ideal than ever for China to push its products, currency, economic tools etc in Russia with the Western companies suspending their activities.
 
rimaldo said:
not playing devil’s advocate but how many more days do russia need to survive whilst still invading before the majority of westerners shift their focus elsewhere and largely forget about it? the bbc website is still very dominated by the war, as are the new channels, except when the sky presenter smiles and says “now for a quick look at the weather.”

but how long before other stories start to filter to the top of the page?
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I think as long as this remains a large-scale conventional kind of war and Kyiv holds (largest foreign press presence), it'll remain big news. The moment it turns into an insurgency we'll see this fizzle out.
 
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