Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

flameinthesun said:
Just wondering whether China sees this as an opportunity from a commercial/economical perspective to gain a foothold in Russia. With the Oil companies pulling out, talks of apple pullng out and countless others commercial companies, it's probably more ideal than ever for China to push its products, currency, economic tools etc in Russia with the Western companies suspending their activities.
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Russia/China trade has jumped 35% last year along, before the war started. It is likely to increase even more and probably double with the current sanctions in place. China will exploit that - no doubt about it.

Water Melon said:
This is a very likely scenario. There are two questions though. How will Russia pay? Their economy is plummeting. Will it mean that Chinese companies will be sanctioned in Western markets due to their support to Russia?
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There is already trade war between USA and China and one of the reasons why the trade between Russia and China is rising. Europe can't afford to sanction China really, unless it goes in openly as Russia ally and bring forces in Ukraine.

Currently China exports almost a trillion of worth of products and services on year basis. If Europe bans this it means it will complete an economical suicide. Most of the machinery in industries is imported from China and tools and repair kits too.

My guess is that China will remain "neutral" but provide the bridge for Russia to divert their export.
 
Smores said:
That's a bit strong sounds almost fascist. What next round up anyone born in Russia in camps unless they prove their loyalty?

We need to be a bit careful not to slip into something dark. Targeting oligarchs and making every statement we can against Russia is of course necessary, punishing innocent Russians who aren't even representing Russia is not.
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Suggesting banning people from partaking in sports is a slippery slope to internment camps. :lol:

What sanctions do you suggest that avoids hurting the civilian population of Russia but puts pressure on e.g. oligarchs?
 
Enigma_87 said:
Russia/China trade has jumped 35% last year along, before the war started. It is likely to increase even more and probably double with the current sanctions in place. China will exploit that - no doubt about it.


There is already trade war between USA and China and one of the reasons why the trade between Russia and China is rising. Europe can't afford to sanction China really, unless it goes in openly as Russia ally and bring forces in Ukraine.

Currently China exports almost a trillion of worth of products and services on year basis. If Europe bans this it means it will complete a complete suicide. Most of the machinery in industries is imported from China and tools and repair kits too.

My guess is that China will remain "neutral" but provide the bridge for Russia to divert their export.
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Most of those are energy imports. China needs Russian gas and a lot more of it in order to make any progress in it's climate pledges. Heck it needs it to keep lifting people out of poverty.

That'll be something that'll be tolerated because the alternative is further gas price hikes or China having to keep running very dirty and inefficient coal plants.
 
Team sports should be banned, individual not so much. F1 drivers, tennis players in singles, etc., they should be allowed to play but without a flag, IMO.
 
Smores said:
That's a bit strong sounds almost fascist. What next round up anyone born in Russia in camps unless they prove their loyalty?

We need to be a bit careful not to slip into something dark. Targeting oligarchs and making every statement we can against Russia is of course necessary, punishing innocent Russians who aren't even representing Russia is not.
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What did you imagine that the sanctions would do to the common people in Russia?

It's a war. We're well past the stage of "let's clamp down on those oligarchs but otherwise leave Russia as intact as possible."
 
Sky1981 said:
Should american citizen be punished for what they did in iraq?

Should japanese civilian be punished for world war 2?

Should Russian rich people that has no direct link with putin that just happen to have flats in UK got deported? Or got his asset frozen without due trial, or just based on some ad hoc bodies that plays judge jury and executioner. I dont even think escobar got his account frozen that easily.

Good intention, wrong principle.
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Seems like you are moving the goalposts a bit here. Has there been any talk about deporting the average Russian living abroad? I don't think so. Targeting the oligarchs I would be more than OK with - I would encourage it even. Anything that can be done to even slightly push for ending this war and removing Putin from power, I'm all for.

It might not be fair in the strictest sense, but we should use every tool available to make it clear to the Russian people, that this is not acceptable. It will hit some people that might be against it already, but so be it. That's unfortunately how countries work.
 
I'm conflicted on the Russian athlete thing. It's easy to say it's not their fault and politics should 'stay out of the sport' but on the other hand: Russia has to understand the gravity of their actions and this includes isolation from international sporting. I lean towards the latter.
 
Maagge said:
Suggesting banning people from partaking in sports is a slippery slope to internment camps. :lol:

What sanctions do you suggest that avoids hurting the civilian population of Russia but puts pressure on e.g. oligarchs?
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TBF I'm also opposed to banning people from partaking in sports just because they are Russian. National teams - yes. Events hosted inside Russia - yes. But banning someone because he's born there is not something I can accept.

Of course there are exception to what I said above like Mazepin for obvious reasons.
 
Enigma_87 said:
TBF I'm also opposed to banning people from partaking in sports just because they are Russian. National teams - yes. Events hosted inside Russia - yes. But banning someone because he's born there is not something I can accept.

Of course there are exception to what I said above like Mazepin for obvious reasons.
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Exactly this.
 
Enigma_87 said:
TBF I'm also opposed to banning people from partaking in sports just because they are Russian. National teams - yes. Events hosted inside Russia - yes. But banning someone because he's born there is not something I can accept.

Of course there are exception to what I said above like Mazepin for obvious reasons.
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And that's a fair opinion and worth discussing. Suggesting it's a step away from internment camps is more than a bit of a reach.
I'm not sure I agree people can complain too much about unfairness given what's going on in Ukraine though.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Russia can't really afford to bomb the shit out of Ukraine as it is European country and is under the spotlight. It's unjust I know, but flattening it would result in serious outcry around the world where the consequences for them would be a lot bigger than when the States flattened Iraq/Afghanistan.
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It already does?
 
B20 said:
It is though. Russia will be hit on their cultural pride and togetherness by being deprived of sporting achievements.

F1 racers being excluded is a much lesser loss for those racers than what are lot of Russians are feeling as a result of these sanctions.
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Yeah, I tend to agree. I don't think banning them is wise. Making them play without flag and anthem is the fairest solution. Especially considering that those events will be televised in Russia, and the fans in stadiums etc can put many banners/choreography about the war. In a country that is ruled by massive propaganda news, this would be one of the very few ways that the truth can be shown in Russian TVs.
 
Maagge said:
Suggesting banning people from partaking in sports is a slippery slope to internment camps. :lol:

What sanctions do you suggest that avoids hurting the civilian population of Russia but puts pressure on e.g. oligarchs?
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Demonisation and punishment of all Russians and saying tough shit those other Russians are causing war is exactly what leads there if left to grow yes. The japanese world over had to endure such racism for decades and muslims more recently with ISIS.

As i said neutral flag them all with the exception of sports with actual nation medals.

If we do end up at war with Russia I don't have enough faith in UK and US politics that we wouldn't start putting Russians in interment camps.
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Enigma_87 said:
TBF I'm also opposed to banning people from partaking in sports just because they are Russian. National teams - yes. Events hosted inside Russia - yes. But banning someone because he's born there is not something I can accept.

Of course there are exception to what I said above like Mazepin for obvious reasons.
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I think there's a distinction to be made between A) banning Russians and B) banning people either competing under the Russian flag or seen to otherwise represent Russia or with some strong connections to the Putin regime. The problem is in F1 there is still a nationalistic aspect. You drive for a team, but compete under your flag with your anthem played on the podium should you win.
 
Amar__ said:
Team sports should be banned, individual not so much. F1 drivers, tennis players in singles, etc., they should be allowed to play but without a flag, IMO.
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I agree. Russian football players for example should be able to play for their (non-russian) clubs, but their national and professional teams should be banned.

In some sports the athletes compete for their country by default (cross country skiing for example), and in those cases it's simple. They shouldn't be allowed to compete.
 
The UK sanctions are going well. Big announcements, little action, government and media paralysed by lawyers working for oligarchs, and now oligarchs looking to sell all of their big assets before the sanctions take effect.
 
TMDaines said:
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Guy was president between 2010-2014 before getting deposed in Euromaidan and fleed to Russia, who welcomed him with open arms and refused to give him up.
Also ran 2004 presidential elections, with his opponent getting poisoned by dioxin. Main suspect was then head of ukrainian intelligence agency Volodymyr Stasyuk. He also fled, can you guess where?
 
ShoePolish said:
Guy was president between 2010-2014 before getting deposed in Euromaidan and fleed to Russia, who welcomed him with open arms and refused to give him up.
Also ran 2004 presidential elections, with his opponent getting poisoned by dioxin. Main suspect was then head of ukrainian intelligence agency Volodymyr Stasyuk. He also fled, can you guess where?
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I once joked with my wife about Ukraine somehow voting Yanukovych back in one day even after Euromaidan, given he was also ousted in the Orange Revolution. It's not so funny any longer.
 
TMDaines said:
The UK sanctions are going well. Big announcements, little action, government and media paralysed by lawyers working for oligarchs, and now oligarchs looking to sell all of their big assets before the sanctions take effect.
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Which they will in return for a nice backhander and donation to the usual coffers.
 
Maagge said:
And that's a fair opinion and worth discussing. Suggesting it's a step away from internment camps is more than a bit of a reach.
I'm not sure I agree people can complain too much about unfairness given what's going on in Ukraine though.
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It's understandable as the events leads to many emotions that are the very end of the spectrum and it's absolutely normal as it a tragedy.
harms said:
It already does?
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Putin isn't using the military equipment to the full extend. Might be because he expected less resistance, but if he uses more ballistic power the amount of civilian casualties will be much much higher.

There is a stark difference of how this is monitored compared to Georgia for example.
 
Maagge said:
And that's a fair opinion and worth discussing. Suggesting it's a step away from internment camps is more than a bit of a reach.
I'm not sure I agree people can complain too much about unfairness given what's going on in Ukraine though.
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Unfair is unfair. I have Russian friends who live here in Prague and have had their bank accounts blocked, supervisors refusing to help with their thesis in university, seeing Russians = Killers posters on the rallies for peace that they themselves go to, having visa issues (some might be deported if things don’t subside). They’re not supportive of Putin - there’s a reason they don’t live in Russia. What else are they supposed to do in this situation?

It’s absolutely tragic what Ukrainian people are going through. The second most unfairly affected group in this situation are the Russians though.I don’t think it’s wrong to acknowledge this.
 
What is the endgame for west with these sanctions and sending arms to Ukraine? While i supported it in the beginning it is starting to look very dangerous.

We are just cornering Putin more and more. No matter how west tries to paint that Russia failed so far noone is denying that Russia went easy on Ukraine in the first days.
Western leaders and especially people from USA acknowledged that and even stated that violence from Russia is likely to increase which we already seeing little by little but we are definitely far away from extreme measures.
People in Russian are not gonna overthrow Putin because he will take extreme actions before that happens.

The only way for me this stops escalating is to sit down with Russia and negotiate some kind of the deal.
West and Russia should really look into making Ukraine a buffer state, set up the government that is agreed with both sides and be watched on from both sides. Basically make Ukraine into Switzerland between Russia and Nato. But I'm afraid that west is never gonna back down to that point and it could be disastrous. Especially with the public support people on the west are giving to western states that option is looking less and less likely.

Not going through the negotiation route leads could result in my opinion in:
-Russia takes over Ukraine easily in next days/weeks but west doesn't acknowledge and it leads in more tension between west and Russia especially because of the impacts of the sanctions on Russian people (not likely that Russia will take over easily anyway)
-Ukraine keep resistance strong and impact of sanctions from the west and Ukraine getting better and better equiped leads Putin to take more and more extreme measures to end this as fast as possible (the most likely scenario)

In both cases tensions will increase and in both cases we will keep cornering Putin and it's very dangerous proposition which could lead into global catastrophy.

And sadly I really can't see any other outcome.
 
IWat said:
It happened with 2014, Syria etc. Some people say those weren't covered, but they were, it just gradually faded over time.

The location might keep it in European news longer.
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It will highly depend on which media we are talking about here. There is no such a thing as the "western media" here as different countries will be affected to a different degree here. In the US and UK this topic might lose steam with time but in the eastern European countries and the major players of the EU this will be a hot topic as long as this war lasts.

I don´t see German media looking to a different angle anytime soon for example. This war changes too much here. Starting from economical ramifications (losing a major foreign market, spike in costs for both the industry and population), the entire energy debate (having to compensate for the eventual loss of gas and oil), the foreign and security policy (arguably the biggest shift in this regard in the entire post WWII history) to the humanitarian consequences, especially the large number of refugees who fill filter into the country, because Poland won´t be able to house them all (nor should they be expected to) and the obvious way for them will be westwards. Given the large Russian population that lives in Germany this might become a inner political topic aswell, although so far pretty much any Russian organisation in the country has condemned Putin and the government has been very thourough in separating this war from the actual Russian population.
 
CassiusClaymore said:
Which they will in return for a nice backhander and donation to the usual coffers.
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It was so fecking predictable. The worry is that Russian-influence will only increase in London, not reduce, given how there is an entire industry set up to obfuscate their wealth, especially if the EU and the US get really serious in their jurisdictions.
 
Scarecrow said:
I’ve seen lots of posters on the

Unfair is unfair. I have Russian friends who live here in Prague and have had their bank accounts blocked, supervisors refusing to help with their thesis in university, seeing Russians = Killers posters everywhere. They’re not supportive of Putin - there’s a reason they don’t live in Russia. What else are they supposed to do in this situation?

It’s absolutely tragic what Ukrainian people are going through. The second most unfairly affected group in this situation are the Russians though.I don’t think it’s wrong to acknowledge this.
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What? They had their bank accounts blocked just because they are Russian?
 
TMDaines said:
I once joked with my wife about Ukraine somehow voting Yanukovych back in one day even after Euromaidan, given he was also ousted in the Orange Revolution. It's not so funny any longer.
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Just goes to show deepness of russian grip into other country politics, and lengths they will go to, to keep it their way, not just in countries around them. Yesterday, the only westerner not to vote on EU help to Ukraine in euro parliament was latvian member Zdanoka, long accused of working towards pro russian goals, yet there's no security mechanisms, that have prevented this from happening and giving her a seat on the parliament.
I'm sure whole brexit, from Nigel Farage to voter influence to tory party, was laced with russian influence.
 
Jerch said:
What is the endgame for west with these sanctions and sending arms to Ukraine? While i supported it in the beginning it is starting to look very dangerous.

We are just cornering Putin more and more. No matter how west tries to paint that Russia failed so far noone is denying that Russia went easy on Ukraine in the first days.
Western leaders and especially people from USA acknowledged that and even stated that violence from Russia is likely to increase which we already seeing little by little but we are definitely far away from extreme measures.
People in Russian are not gonna overthrow Putin because he will take extreme actions before that happens.

The only way for me this stops escalating is to sit down with Russia and negotiate some kind of the deal.
West and Russia should really look into making Ukraine a buffer state, set up the government that is agreed with both sides and be watched on from both sides. Basically make Ukraine into Switzerland between Russia and Nato. But I'm afraid that west is never gonna back down to that point and it could be disastrous. Especially with the public support people on the west are giving to western states that option is looking less and less likely.

Not going through the negotiation route leads could result in my opinion in:
-Russia takes over Ukraine easily in next days/weeks but west doesn't acknowledge and it leads in more tension between west and Russia especially because of the impacts of the sanctions on Russian people (not likely that Russia will take over easily anyway)
-Ukraine keep resistance strong and impact of sanctions from the west and Ukraine getting better and better equiped leads Putin to take more and more extreme measures to end this as fast as possible (the most likely scenario)

In both cases tensions will increase and in both cases we will keep cornering Putin and it's very dangerous proposition which could lead into global catastrophy.

And sadly I really can't see any other outcome.
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You kinda forgot to factor in what the Ukrainians want in your little scenario here.

The end game is simply that a free and democratic sovereign nation retains its freedom and sovereignty without "the west" or Russia deciding for them if they should be a buffer state etc.
 
Jerch said:
What is the endgame for west with these sanctions and sending arms to Ukraine? While i supported it in the beginning it is starting to look very dangerous.

We are just cornering Putin more and more. No matter how west tries to paint that Russia failed so far noone is denying that Russia went easy on Ukraine in the first days.
Western leaders and especially people from USA acknowledged that and even stated that violence from Russia is likely to increase which we already seeing little by little but we are definitely far away from extreme measures.
People in Russian are not gonna overthrow Putin because he will take extreme actions before that happens.

The only way for me this stops escalating is to sit down with Russia and negotiate some kind of the deal.
West and Russia should really look into making Ukraine a buffer state, set up the government that is agreed with both sides and be watched on from both sides. Basically make Ukraine into Switzerland between Russia and Nato. But I'm afraid that west is never gonna back down to that point and it could be disastrous. Especially with the public support people on the west are giving to western states that option is looking less and less likely.

Not going through the negotiation route leads could result in my opinion in:
-Russia takes over Ukraine easily in next days/weeks but west doesn't acknowledge and it leads in more tension between west and Russia especially because of the impacts of the sanctions on Russian people (not likely that Russia will take over easily anyway)
-Ukraine keep resistance strong and impact of sanctions from the west and Ukraine getting better and better equiped leads Putin to take more and more extreme measures to end this as fast as possible (the most likely scenario)

In both cases tensions will increase and in both cases we will keep cornering Putin and it's very dangerous proposition which could lead into global catastrophy.

And sadly I really can't see any other outcome.
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Yes, but there is no other way. Leave him get Ukraine easily, in 2 years it is gonna be Baltics, in 4 Romania/Bulgaria, and in 6 Poland. Also, China would get Taiwan.

The nuclear force is called deterrent because that is that purpose. All actors should know that using it, is the end. It is not something to threaten and get some advantage (land/invading countries etc), cause that just makes the bully threat more. I guess next time it is gonna be Poland is part of Russia and if anyone resists, I nuke the world.


So, I think to prevent a nuclear war, the West should actually risk going into a nuclear war.
 
We definitely need to do more on nuclear disarmament. We can't have despots wanting to blow up the world every 50 years.
 
Zelenskyy's Telegram channel is now starting to post all of his addresses with an English subtitled version. Not sure why these are not being posted to Youtube.

https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official

Also his speech to the EU Parliament brought at least two English-language interpreters to tears yesterday. Here is one, around 4:00:

 
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