Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Smithy89]

An astonishingly uninformed post.

They're cowardly, it's just my opinion.

 

[Dans]

Russia has said for years that it wont allow Ukraine to become a Nato country. Thats the whole reason for the war. If it remained a neutral state then this war would not have happened. On one hand its a democracy and they should damn well be able to choose if they want to be Nato or not. On the other hand if they just let it be and remained a neutral state they wouldn't have been flattened by Russia. They are damned if they do and damned if they dont. They cant and will not back down now. The endgame is Russia neutralizes Ukraine. They make it impossible for it to become Nato and at the same time sets up president that any of the other countries cant as well - Latvia, Estonia, Finland and yes even Belarus (they could elect a West leaning politician in the future). They have already achieved this objective no matter what happens in Ukraine. I cannot see any of those countries joining Nato. If they do they risk the same treatment as Ukraine. Maybe Finland would get away with it.

The Wests endgame is to demonize Russia. This will make it so all these countries dont lean towards Russia like Belarus has. Russia could even be influencing countries like Czech, Poland etc and trying to elect pro Russian governments. Its the game that has been played since the second world war. Also they have legitimate reasons to fk up the Russian economy and turn the world against them.

You really think so? He just crushed the demos last year. Not likely to be any democratic elections there any time soon.

 

[Sarni]

Australian military strategist gives his thoughts, says Ukraine awaits 3 big military decisions:

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...s-will-have-to-make-soon-20220301-p5a0ly.html

All valid points I think. Russia is bound to take over Eastern Ukraine by force quite soon and it is essential that Ukraine keep enough resources out West to regroup and try to take it back. I think we are close to entering a point where the war slows down and instead of constant fire we are going to see slower developments that will take weeks/months to form. Inevitably that will also cause West public opinion to shift their attention to elsewhere. It will be a long war.

 

[Interval]

I find it hilarious that Putin prepared for this for 3-4 years. He wanted the world to see the majestic Russian forces and power it still wields. He wanted to strike fear.

what on earth went on during the preps? How could logistics be this badly fecked in the first week? Did they play candy crush during military exercises? Did they assume they’ll drive into Kiev and there’s no need for plan B?

Embarrassing his nation for his ego.

I want to see the cognitive dissonance in his rationalisations.

fecking dickwad.

 

[africanspur]

Oh, it’s a different point. Wealthy kids that have their parents pay for Eton & the likes are, mostly, children of Putin’s elite. This is absolutely justified (well, almost as there’s this children not being responsible for the actions of his parent ethical conundrum… but it’s their parent’s money).

I’m talking about genuine student scholarships that you have to work for to get one. They’re cancelling them all over Europe.

That for me is a really really shitty thing to do.

 

[Danny1982]

FAO @Danny1982

Expected, seeing European countries already taken that stance. Similar to banning Russian media in Europe, expect Russia to ban Western media too in the coming days.

 

[harms]

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

Why? The only reason India and Pakistan have not gone into a complete war in recent times is nuclear bomb. Same for China vs India. On the other hand, look what is happening to Ukraine. It may sound weird, but I feel having nuclear bomb is the only guarantee that your country will not face full blown invasion.

It’s a bit of a catch-22. Nuclear bombs are a horrible invention that introduced a consistent threat of an imminent apocalypse and yet it’s the only thing that’s stopping it.

 

[IWat]

They're cowardly, it's just my opinion.

Fair enough, respect that. But they're probably the reason you've not had to be drafted so far in your life.

 

[Sarni]

I find it hilarious that Putin prepared for this for 3-4 years. He wanted the world to see the majestic Russian forces and power it still wields. He wanted to strike fear.

what on earth went on during the preps? How could logistics be this badly fecked in the first week? Did they play candy crush during military exercises? Did they assume they’ll drive into Kiev and there’s no need for plan B?

Embarrassing his nation for his ego.

I want to see the cognitive dissonance in his rationalisations.

fecking dickwad.

I honestly think their expectation was to be welcomed by Ukrainians and that there would be a significant division among Ukrainian people, which would basically make their task much easier.

 

[matt10000]

Anybody who thinks countries should have nuclear weapons needs their head looking at. Absolutely no need for them and this invasion has shown that, because without Russia's threat of them this war is over.

If your enemy has them then you also need them.

If you arm yourself with a knife and your neighbour points a machine gun at you, you are at their mercy.

If you have a machine gun too that you point back then assuming you have an early warning system to warn you as he/she starts to pull trigger, then you are both fecked.

 

[sullydnl]

I will just replay with one of his quotes:
Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain - Putin

You don't need to want to Soviet Union back to long for a Soviet empire. Again, something Putin's recent speeches have made clear, as he harkened back to imperial Russia repeatedly while actively criticising nearly every leader of the Soviet Union.

 

[RoadTrip]

@Jerch is a known WUM, just so everyone in this thread knows. Engaging in debate is futile.

 

[Real Madras]

My heart is really hurting seeing what’s going on in Ukraine. Children dying and peoples homes are being destroyed.
We as humans are a cancer to this earth.

 

[Smithy89]

Fair enough, respect that. But they're probably the reason you've not had to be drafted so far in your life.

I do understand they're a deterrent more than anything, but i can't get my head around a country actually using one, and that particular government thinking it would be the right thing.

 

[VorZakone]

All valid points I think. Russia is bound to take over Eastern Ukraine by force quite soon and it is essential that Ukraine keep enough resources out West to regroup and try to take it back. I think we are close to entering a point where the war slows down and instead of constant fire we are going to see slower developments that will take weeks/months to form. Inevitably that will also cause West public opinion to shift their attention to elsewhere. It will be a long war.

If Russia has the money to continue fighting. I wonder if financial experts have analyzed this.

 

[Sarni]

I do understand they're a deterrent more than anything, but i can't get my head around a country actually using one, and that particular government thinking it would be the right thing.

None of the Western countries will ever use one as a means of attack.

The only way they are ever used is there's a psychopath with nothing to lose in charge. While some seem to think that's where Putin may already be or may get to eventually, I reckon he loves his Russia too much to be the one who destroyed it forever. Let's hope.

 

[B20]

I do understand they're a deterrent more than anything, but i can't get my head around a country actually using one, and that particular government thinking it would be the right thing.

Crazy as it sounds, Hiroshima and Nagasaki probably saved more lives than it cost.

 

[Sarni]

If Russia has the money to continue fighting. I wonder if financial experts have analyzed this.

Yeah the way they may eventually retreat is if they cannot afford to keep Ukraine under their control, which I reckon is bound to happen. Over the long term it will not be sustainable for them to keep a country of that size and with that level of resistance. It is just not possible.

 

[sglowrider]

It seems like a complete no-brainer for Finland at this point. They are already fairly close to the 2% of GDP on military spending, so no massive increase is needed.

Plus they are replacing the F-18s with a networked F-35 which could easily plug/integrate into Nato's fleet

 

[matt10000]

I do understand they're a deterrent more than anything, but i can't get my head around a country actually using one, and that particular government thinking it would be the right thing.

USA used them in 1945 and it ended the second world war.

 

[africanspur]

You mean Sweden? Norway were a founding member.

I think Putin has hugely miscalculated the after effects of this. He's likely to get another one or two Nato members on his doorstep, made China realise he's not a reliable partner, and created a fourth military superpower in a united EU.

Agreed 100%. He may win the war in the short term in Ukraine but has critically weakened Russian weakness across Europe and reshaped how the rest of Europe sees him and Russia.

I can't see that this will be even close to worth it for him at all.

Feels like a fatal miscalculation.

 

[Jerch]

@Jerch is a known WUM, just so everyone in this thread knows. Engaging in debate is futile.

My initial post was that we could end this in peace only with diplomacy basically. However you spin it around I don't see good outcome without diplomacy. Hopefully I'm wrong because I sadly am not seeing politics seeking diplomatic solutions.
I don't know how is this considered a WUM.

 

[FootyGirl88]

 

[Hernandez - BFA]

Not many updates from today it seems?

 

[B20]

Yeah the way they may eventually retreat is if they cannot afford to keep Ukraine under their control, which I reckon is bound to happen. Over the long term it will not be sustainable for them to keep a country of that size and with that level of resistance. It is just not possible.

The hope is that with the sanctions they won't be able to afford it in the short term either.

That's Ukraines only viable strategy really. Draw out the war until Russia is effectively bankrupt.

 

[Maticmaker]

I wonder how the German rearmament announcement was received in Russian political circles

Indeed..Germany could be the key (or one of them) in all of this. A fully rearmed Germany with a new military imperative/ structure in place would raise a few 'Ghosts' in Moscow. If the Germans also closed off Nordstream 2 forever and with an EU fully behind them pledged to providing support to the Ukraine to remain a truly independent country as a member of the EU; a few alarm bells that are may be silent at the moment would start ringing in parts of the Russian political circles.

 

[Balljy]

It’s the complete opposite — giving promising Russian students/academics an opportunity to study/work abroad would lead to brain drain way more effectively. Just like it did in the 90’s.

If all of those students (mostly top of the pile, as it’s not that easy to get a foreign scholarship) are forced back to Russia, you’re giving all of that potential back to Putin.

I agree as they would be sending students back now. This isn't in isolation though, they are also planning to poach the better educated people from Russia as well, but it seems to the two policies are at cross purposes.

 

[Sarni]

The hope is that with the sanctions they won't be able to afford it in the short term either.

That's Ukraines only viable strategy really. Draw out the war until Russia is effectively bankrupt.

Unless the West is cornered into loosening the sanctions or not going any further by the threat of nukes. Some seem to think this will eventually happen. It's a tough situation.

 

[Skills]

It'll be sad to see countries now reinforcing their nuclear capabilities while still shunning nuclear for "safety reasons".

 

[IWat]

I do understand they're a deterrent more than anything, but i can't get my head around a country actually using one, and that particular government thinking it would be the right thing.

The concept is called Mutually Assured Destruction. The theory goes that while there are 2+ powers who retain the capability to destroy the other, neither side will use them or desire to come into direct conflict with each other.

The flaw is a) you get proxy wars, although they tend to not be on the same kind of scale b) a complete nutter who has no regard for their own life or the future of their country

 

[hellhunter]

It'll be sad to see countries now reinforcing their nuclear capabilities while still shunning nuclear for "safety reasons".

You could argue that none of this would happen if Ukraine still had its nukes.

 

[IWat]

It'll be sad to see countries now reinforcing their nuclear capabilities while still shunning nuclear for "safety reasons".

Nuclear weapons programs and civilian nuclear energy are kind of 2 different beasts. Modern gen 3-4 civilian nuclear energy plants are incredibly safe.

 

[spiriticon]

20,000?!!!! Why didn't they evacuate them before???? There were so much advance warnings...

 

[11101]

The concept is called Mutually Assured Destruction. The theory goes that while there are 2+ powers who retain the capability to destroy the other, neither side will use them or desire to come into direct conflict with each other.

The flaw is a) you get proxy wars, although they tend to not be on the same kind of scale b) a complete nutter who has no regard for their own life or the future of their country

That's what worries me. I don't think for a minute that Putin will actually use his. He is a tyrant who has made a big mistake with Ukraine but he's not a lunatic. If a genuine loose cannon like Kim Jong Un gets his hands on them though?

 

[sullydnl]

 

[IWat]

That's what worries me. I don't think for a minute that Putin will actually use his. He is a tyrant who has made a big mistake with Ukraine but he's not a lunatic. If a genuine loose cannon like Kim Jong Un gets his hands on them though?

I hate to break it, but North Korea already have nuclear warheads and they now seem to have the delivery system. He won't use them though unless he really does want to meet the grave.

 

[TheGame]

With the prospect of insurgency in Ukraine to continue even if Russia manage to win some control, Putin is doing the brain dead thinking that the UK/US did when they invaded Iraq. How some people call this idiot some sort of mastermind is beyond me. He's manage to cripple his country and people in the space of a couple of weeks alongside killing innocent people.

 

[hellhunter]

Should we expect increased shelling and bombing in the lead up to this for Putin to hammer home his point?

 

[B20]

My initial post was that we could end this in peace only with diplomacy basically. However you spin it around I don't see good outcome without diplomacy. Hopefully I'm wrong because I sadly am not seeing politics seeking diplomatic solutions.
I don't know how is this considered a WUM.

Your idea of diplomacy was to run roughshod over Ukrainian sovereignty and decide things for them. and on top, was essentially a Chamberlainian exercise where you explicitly acknowledged that you'd be willing to sacrifice free democracies to placate Russia's aggression.

I acknowledge the sentiment for a peaceful solution, but your proposals are, to put it bluntly, too chicken shit for this situation.

A world where we do what you propose is on that proves to be the death knell of western democracy, where Russia and China will feel empowered to keep up the war of attrition and we'll be good little lapdogs as long as you leave the ourselves alone. Be sure that what happens in Ukraine has consequences for what happens in the baltic sea region, Taiwan and the Arctic.

The silver lining in all this has in fact been that the European response has been the opposite of what you proposed. Germany will now become a more prominent military factor, the EU is more united than ever as everyone realised just what our common values are and what is at stake in the European project.
Democracy and free and open societies matter. They are deserving of support and protection. There's a new European manifesto written for the 21st century thanks to Putin now.

 

[Revan]

The concept is called Mutually Assured Destruction. The theory goes that while there are 2+ powers who retain the capability to destroy the other, neither side will use them or desire to come into direct conflict with each other.

The flaw is a) you get proxy wars, although they tend to not be on the same kind of scale b) a complete nutter who has no regard for their own life or the future of their country

MAD is essentially a Nash equilibrium. Two rational actors reaching that, means neither will do a unilateral attack or disarm.

The only problem with MAD is what happens if one of the actors is not rational.