Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

IWat said:
Swapping out the institutional SWIFT kit for CIFS isn't really the problem, although that's in the £x millions alone. It's every other system expecting things in USD that would then come through in Yen. They'd need to figure out how to manage stuff on the general ledger before and after the switch and then everything that relies on the ledger, which is most things. All the treasury management stuff etc. And that's before you get into stuff like fraud systems.
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I think i could guess which bank by reputation if that's the cost. I've worked on most if not all of that list in projects just not in regards to Yen and i can't grasp the cost but maybe there's other factors in play.

For a full from scratch rebuild you might be right to be fair.
 
the_cliff said:
Basically China's enormous growth in this economy (post 2008).

No country has had more growth in this economy.
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Yes but China was obviously coming from an extremely low base compared to the US. It's clearly had huge growth, but not devoid of its own problems, eg the parlous state of its property sector, which is about a third of its economy.
 
TMDaines said:
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I watched this and he basically said that they'd been getting messages from sources since last year that Putin was basically reinforcing his dictatorship. But obviously that doesn't really help with his open source work. It did make them pay more attention to Russia. According to this source, Putin had boasted to a small circle of loyalists about going to war with Ukraine.

The warning they received last year is that a full dictatorship would materialize in March of this year. What was already known back then that there’d be a lot of discontent among the elites, there was already some thinking about a coup or disobedience. This is going to be increased manifold because of the unprecedented loses. Russia will be a different society in two weeks because of the actions of different actors re: sanctions. Again, a source said that people around Putin are freaking out and looking to secure their interests and looking at what they can do about Putin, but again this isn't something he can verify through open source investigation (obviously).

They specifically wanted to pay attention to false flags, to be able to debunk them which they did but basically also said that they were so bad that no one would be convinced by them. Putin went to war anyway.

Their focus is on archiving war crimes.

People close to Putin asses the nuclear threat as realistic even if analysts in the west don’t which scares him. It is unknowable through data.

Talking about the Russian casualties: conflict intelligence team is a Russian outlet that focusses on war crimes and activities, they are doing a bottom up approach where they look at sources with burnt out tanks and dead bodies. They found 700-900. He himself looks at destroyed airplanes, tanks etc. to get to an analytic number to get an idea of how many people were there before it was destroyed.
 
antsmithmk said:
This is all starting to get a bit silly now.
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Same principle as Mason Greenwood being cut out of Football Manager and FIFA. EA, just like SI, don’t want their brand associated with Russian football right now.

Edit: … and just like that, Sports Interactive to do the same with Football Manager.

 
Enigma_87 said:
Which is again mostly produced by the BRICS and OPEC countries.

70% of Palladium is mined by SA and Russia. China, Russia and India are the top three producers of Aluminum, with China way ahead of the pack. China and Russia are the biggest producers of gold worldwide, etc.




China won't show their true colors in the current situation and IMO will play double game. One of the biggest problem in China is energy as mentioned, and Russia can give them resource at discounted price, so naturally they will take this opportunity. They already concluded a new 30 years deal with Russia for the supply of natural gas and building a new infrastructure.

Russia/China can also negotiate a fix price it's not like they will be window shopping in this scenario..
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I think you're adding yuan plus yuan and getting five.
 
Jippy said:
I think you're adding yuan plus yuan and getting five.
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Not saying something like this will happen but one way or another China would probably would be the worlds leading economy after all this finishes.
 
Smores said:
I think i could guess which bank by reputation if that's the cost. I've worked on most if not all of that list in projects just not in regards to Yen and i can't grasp the cost but maybe there's other factors in play.

For a full from scratch rebuild you might be right to be fair.
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As an example, if you want high availability, multi-data centre implementation of Swift, you are talking hardware security module, messaging interface, communications interface, jump server etc that all needs to be replicated on different sites. You then need to load balance that. For security, that needs to be on isolated dedicated hardware in a secure-zone. Data centre kit is not cheap.

You've then got to put the monitoring, anti-fraud (That alone is 7 figures over multiple years for licenses for us before you even start buying servers for it) etc in on top. You then need to test it all. Heck in my world the annual security test of our Swift implementation is typically a week engagement, that's £6-8k to get a 3rd party to come in.

That's just Swift on its own. It's not as simple as throwing some servers in the corner, throwing some software on and you're off to the races. I wish it was.

Haha, you can PM and I will confirm or deny! I'm not saying it would be a billion for the record, that was about the only thing I could compare it to, but it would be very expensive.
 
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MTF said:
Is your portfolio allocated as such?
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Mostly diversified, but yes it has China assets. Waiting for ByteDance to go public probably this or the beginning of next year. Needless to say I've pulled out all Russian assets end of last year.
 
Enigma_87 said:
Mostly diversified, but yes it has China assets. Waiting for ByteDance to go public probably this or the beginning of next year. Needless to say I've pulled out all Russian assets end of last year.
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Fair enough. Yeah, Tiktok has seemed to have the staying power that Snapchat didn't.

Sorry, enough about the off-topic.
 
There is a first broadcast on YouTube involving body language experts analyzing the recent behavior of Vladimir Putin around the Russia Ukraine invasion right now. The Behavior Panel is a group made up of the world's top 4 body language and behavior experts: Scott Rouse, Mark Bowden, Chase Hughes, and Greg Hartley.

 
Danny1982 said:
They took Kherson (a large city in the South) and they completed the siege of Mariupol (by meeting the forces of the DPR in the East and completing the land-bridge to Crimea). No substantial gains in the north apart from bombing Kiev and Kharkiv and some minor advnaces around Kharkiv.
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Got it. Thanks.
 
Jippy said:
Yes but China was obviously coming from an extremely low base compared to the US. It's clearly had huge growth, but not devoid of its own problems, eg the parlous state of its property sector, which is about a third of its economy.
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I think you misunderstood me, I wasn't saying China has the strongest economy. I was mentioning how China may think twice about wanting to put a toll on the current economy by joining forces with Russia seeing as it's the country that has had the most growth in the same economy.
 
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