Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Ain’t too many people around the world now looking to the UK Prime Minister to be a key player in ending this diplomatically, or to be leading the talks once the war ends.

Well, Brexit meant the UK surrendered sitting at the top table of global diplomacy. We’re very much below the US, the EU leaders, and those who represent the biggest European countries.

Every cloud has its silver lining then. England has been blamed for nearly everything and our current record whichever party it is, Blair and Boris are our recent efforts. It's probably best UK sit out the next 500 years and let someone else try and get the blame.
 
This is good news. Putin -and people in his inner cercle- won’t care about small manifestations, But this kind of pressure if they stand by it can be a real game changer.



Putin will just find new board members and imprison the current ones.
 
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
Funny how you haven't mentioned Putin's huge role. "I can't justify Putin invading Russia...but it's mainly the wests fault" right...

If you were thinking about putting a headguard on, can I punch you in the face before you do and say you had a huge role in my actions?
 
After Chernobyl radiation spread as far as the UK in the form or radioactive rain, in other words the whole of Europe is at risk depending on the wind direction.

It's extremely unlikely there will be any problems, Russian troops don't want to blow the lid off the reactors right next to them any more than we want them to. The thick concrete and metal designed to keep them in also does a good job of keeping unwanted things out, the risk is more to the water and generators needed to keep them from overheating. An operating reactor is also more much dangerous than a shutdown one so i hope Ukraine is not running them right now.

The assembled research by specialists for Greenpeace International concludes that the safety of Zaporizhzhia is severely compromised by the war. In a worst-case scenario, where explosions destroy the reactor containment and cooling systems, the potential release of radioactivity from both the reactor core and the spent fuel pool into the atmosphere could create a disaster far worse even than the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe of 2011, with areas of land hundreds of kilometres from the reactor site potentially becoming inhospitable for decades. Even without direct damage to the plant, the reactor’s rely heavily on the electric grid for operating cooling systems, on the availability of nuclear technicians and personnel and access to heavy equipment and logistics.

Three reactors are currently operating and three have been shut down since the start of the war.

edit:

Russia’s aggression has already damaged two radioactive waste disposal sites at Kharkiv and Kyiv. So they are not exactly... careful!!
 
Now that is utterly disrespectful to everything that people from former Warsaw Pact countries have experienced during the Cold War. Do you think they would have joined NATO if the Soviets treated them better during the 40 years of Soviet rule? Those countries had a right to do whatever they want based on their own assessments about reality on the ground and past history; that is the primary principle of sovereignty.

Cuba went their separate opposite to the US because of near colonial rule prior to 1959. And as far as everyone is concerned, Cuba has maintained privileged relations with Russia since then and the US still have to suck it up.

It should also be pointed out that Putin isn't demanding Eastern Europe turn into variations of Switzerland. He actively wants to extend the Russian State's influence and re-create that Warsaw Pact.
 
As I said this makes no sense. Hiroshima had a power of 15kT, Tsar Bomba had 50MT, that is more than 3000 times bigger.

It didn't destroy the atmosphere, or kill everyone. It just did a massive explosion.
Dude, just go research the subject. Feck. I'm no nuclear physicist. My memory is too bad. I can't even remember the point I was trying to make.

It's very doubtful that all those could actually be used. Those on strategic ICBMs probably could be fired, those mounted on bombers and submarines on patrol also quite likely. Eveything in store most likely wouldn't be able to be used after the initial strikes, so we would be far closer to 1,000 than 15,000 actually detonated bombs.

And no, it is unlikely that it would wipe humankind from the planet. Especially the southern hemisphere would be largely unaffected by direct strikes, a bit of cooling down would cause troubles as well as the increased radiation background, but we as a species would likely survive, like we did the ice ages or catastrophic supervolcanoes.
You're underestimating the power of nuclear warheads. But anyway, I will gladly agree to disagree. That's my way of saying I'm outta here, 'cause I have stuff to do :)
 
Now that is utterly disrespectful to everything that people from former Warsaw Pact countries have experienced during the Cold War. Do you think they would have joined NATO if the Soviets treated them better during the 40 years of Soviet rule? Those countries had a right to do whatever they want based on their own assessments about reality on the ground and past history; that is the primary principle of sovereignty.

Cuba went their separate opposite to the US because of near colonial rule prior to 1959. And as far as everyone is concerned, Cuba has maintained privileged relations with Russia since then and the US still have to suck it up.

Was NATO the only solution to those countries becoming a part of the 'West'?

You know what I am saying.
 
Would the radiation from this really travel across Europe? I understand the importance of not blowing up a nuclear power plant, but how does it affect the rest of Europe?

Depends on the wind direction, but likely they just want to control the light switches.
 
The only thing I have contemplated in the last 24 hours, reading bits of Chomsky et al, is the argument that the West politically exposed Ukraine, lured them into no man’s land between East and West, with suggestions and promises that we were never likely to keep.

Yes, unquestionably, Ukraine and the Ukrainian people should be able to self determine its political direction. Yes, unquestionably, the blame entirely lays at Russia’s door for the terrible events of the last week and the last eight years.

But I have started to wonder whether Ukraine has been badly let down by the US, NATO and the EU. We give Ukraine and other similar countries and their peoples the carrot of NATO and EU membership, yet hold them at arm’s length until they join. We hide behind the fact they are not part of NATO, that they are a not an EU member, for our inaction when they invaded, despite selling them the promise of promise European integration.

I feel massive guilt towards my wife and her family for where Ukraine now finds itself. It’s easy to say, “Well, you are not part of NATO, and not part of the EU,” for not militarily defending them, until you actually have to say that to people who are having their homes and country destroyed.

There’s a real possibility that both NATO and the EU, whilst being emboldened and resilient right now, face a real identity and confidence crisis should the worst happen to Ukraine. Why would third countries want to align themselves with us, with the intention of one day joining, if we just allow a dictator to sabotage and then invade them whilst on their journey?

Both organizations have standards and requirements for membership. The worst we can say is that perhaps these are too strict and there should be a function to relax requirements and instead prescribe solutions that can be implemented post membership but the suggestion that working toward NATO or EU membership for any former Soviet Republic or Warsaw Pact member is detrimental is ridiculous and diminishes their intellectual standing in my opinion.

This isn't a time to throw out contrarian arguments for the sake of appearing balanced.
 
why do you want to ‘take a chance’ when you have evidence from not so long ago that has resulted in millions suffering? shouldn’t the lesson be to not repeat that mistake. And more importantly isn’t the goal here to stop the war and stop more innocent lives being lost.

Mate, we're repeating Neville Chamberlain's mistake here. We know that outcome of that. 10s of millions died.

Who is going to come in and be more hardline than Putin? The likelihood that one of his opponents that he wasn't able to kill with Polonium would step in is higher than somene who is actually more dangerous than Putin even existing in Russia and taking over post Vlad.

To put it in terms of risk, appeasing Putin and allowing him to stay in power is a straight loss scenario. Ukraine will lose their independence and possibly Moldova as well. Him being removed from power at least offers the world a chance of gain.
 
christ, do you realize how many lives will be lost before anything of this sort can happen? and you’re casually arguing for a regime change in a country with nukes and the second-largest army in the world.

First, Russia does not have the second largest army in the world. It only has the 5th at best in terms of active personnel (professionals). I think we all have seen how poorly an army can be run with a majority of those involved being conscripts, and that's before I go on with the odds of a repeat of the 1917 mutinies that led to the Tsar's downfall.

Speaking of nukes, where do they come in the equation if there's a change of government in the Kremlin? I know people feared this or that during the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the nuclear arsenal remained locked or later dismantled in an extent with respect to the START treaty.
 
The US and the West should never have enticed Ukraine about joining NATO.
It was directly threatening to Russia.

Non military benefits should not have been conditional on Ukraine joining NATO.
No one can justify Putin invading Ukraine.
But lets not pretend the West did not have a huge role in what is happening now.
I actually somewhat agree with that, regarding the level of western hypocrisy there. Especially when you see the whole world is supporting Ukraine now, which is good, but in contrast to how no one cares about Iraq people during Iraq invasion back then, it was just so fecked up. A lot of civilians died in that war for no reasons, over 100,000, and up to a million in total. Which proves most people are fecking hyprocrites.

But back to Ukraine war, I don''t believe Ukraine wanting to join NATO is the main reason why Putin Russia is invading Ukraine now, it just doesn't make sense for all that, I mean, Putin/Russian themselves wants to join NATO several times over past decades too didn't they? He is definitely on something else this time for sure, something out of greed or insanity.
 
Both organizations have standards and requirements for membership. The worst we can say is that perhaps these are too strict and there should be a function to relax requirements and instead prescribe solutions that can be implemented post membership but the suggestion that working toward NATO or EU membership for any former Soviet Republic or Warsaw Pact member is detrimental is ridiculous and diminishes their intellectual standing in my opinion.

This isn't a time to throw out contrarian arguments for the sake of appearing balanced.

It isn't for the sake of balance. We left them massively exposed and we can say but yeah we're not that bad guy here but that doesn't change anything.

If you enter into talks with NATO you should be under NATO protection. They wouldn't have been invaded had we done so.
 
Both organizations have standards and requirements for membership. The worst we can say is that perhaps these are too strict and there should be a function to relax requirements and instead prescribe solutions that can be implemented post membership but the suggestion that working toward NATO or EU membership for any former Soviet Republic or Warsaw Pact member is detrimental is ridiculous and diminishes their intellectual standing in my opinion.

This isn't a time to throw out contrarian arguments for the sake of appearing balanced.

The way to get these former Warsaw Pact countries to 'join the west' is not to make NATO any kind of condition.

In fact the goal should be to eventually disband the need for NATO.
 
They live in a different reality to the rest of us.



As a lawyer, I'm used to, well, bending the truth a little bit every now and then. But if I had to say shit like this, I couldn't sleep at night. What a cnut.
 
You don’t understand the Russian (*Putin’s) perspective then. At least not the official line of propaganda.
It's my understanding that Putin's perspective (saying it was 'Russia's' was perhaps my mistake so I apologize for that) is that Ukraine is a part of Russia and shouldn't be separated from the wider Russian sphere. My point was, what actually is Putin offering the Ukraine that makes this sustainable in the long run?

Every powerful nation needs an ideology to prop it up whether it's the liberty, communism, capitalism, Islamic/Christian fundamentalism etc. Putin's ultra nationalistic, anti-west outlook is not really anything to hang your hat on-it kind of looks ideologically bankrupt to me.
 
First, Russia does not have the second largest army in the world. It only has the 5th at best in terms of active personnel (professionals). I think we all have seen how poorly an army can be run with a majority of those involved being conscripts, and that's before I go on with the odds of a repeat of the 1917 mutinies that led to the Tsar's downfall.

Speaking of nukes, where do they come in the equation if there's a change of government in the Kremlin? I know people feared this or that during the collapse of the Soviet Union, but the nuclear arsenal remained locked or later dismantled in an extent with respect to the START treaty.
still doesn’t answer my question, do you realize how many lives will be lost in the process before we can even get to the point you’re suggesting. who is going to be responsible for the lives lost?
 
Ain’t too many people around the world now looking to the UK Prime Minister to be a key player in ending this diplomatically, or to be leading the talks once the war ends.

The key powers in the world remain UK, US, France and Germany (NATO wise and EU)
 
I actually somewhat agree with that, regarding the level of western hypocrisy there. Especially when you see the whole world is supporting Ukraine now, which is good, but in contrast to how no one cares about Iraq people during Iraq invasion back then, it was just so fecked up. A lot of civilians died in that war for no reasons, over 100,000, and up to a million in total. Which proves most people are fecking hyprocrites.

But back to Ukraine war, I don''t believe Ukraine wanting to join NATO is the main reason why Putin Russia is invading Ukraine now, it just doesn't make sense for all that, I mean, Putin/Russian themselves wants to join NATO several times over past decades too didn't they? He is definitely on something else this time for sure, something out of greed.

You mean apart from the millions who demonstrated against the war around the world? And the major countries who opposed it (incl. Germany and France)? It is a myth that nobody cared about the Iraq, but clearly a popular myth.
 
The key powers in the world remain UK, US, France and Germany (NATO wise and EU)

Key powers in NATO and EU for sure; the US obviously also in the world. These other 3 do not matter that much on a global scale, honestly.
 
The way to get these former Warsaw Pact countries to 'join the west' is not to make NATO any kind of condition.

In fact the goal should be to eventually disband the need for NATO.

Was it a condition? These countries wanted the security that NATO provides to their independence after living under the Russian boot for 70 years.
 
But back to Ukraine war, I don''t believe Ukraine wanting to join NATO is the main reason why Putin Russia is invading Ukraine now, it just doesn't make sense for all that, I mean, Putin/Russian themselves wants to join NATO several times over past decades too didn't they? He is definitely on something else this time for sure, something out of greed or insanity.
Russia joining the NATO would have meant to create a new common security architecture in Europe. The decision against that made clear to Russia that NATO exists to oppose the Russians.

Putin wants to restore the Russian empire as it existed before the SU. Ukraine was wrestled away from Russia in WW1
 
I actually somewhat agree with that, regarding the level of western hypocrisy there. Especially when you see the whole world is supporting Ukraine now, which is good, but in contrast to how no one cares about Iraq people during Iraq invasion back then, it was just so fecked up. A lot of civilians died in that war for no reasons, over 100,000, and up to a million in total. Which proves most people are fecking hyprocrites.

But back to Ukraine war, I don''t believe Ukraine wanting to join NATO is the main reason why Putin Russia is invading Ukraine now, it just doesn't make sense for all that, I mean, Putin/Russian themselves wants to join NATO several times over past decades too didn't they? He is definitely on something else this time for sure, something out of greed or insanity.

People conveniently forget about Iraq which is actually worse because that war was totally for a made up reason.

Putin/Russia want their 'sphere of influence'.

The only way to avoid what happened and more such events is build trust.
You can do that even with your' traditional enemy'.

Goal? Mutual survival.
 
I actually somewhat agree with that, regarding the level of western hypocrisy there. Especially when you see the whole world is supporting Ukraine now, which is good, but in contrast to how no one cares about Iraq people during Iraq invasion back then, it was just so fecked up. A lot of civilians died in that war for no reasons, over 100,000, and up to a million in total. Which proves people are fecking hyprocrites.

But back to Ukraine war, I don''t believe Ukraine wanting to join NATO is the main reason why Putin Russia is invading Ukraine now, it just doesn't make sense for all that, I mean, Putin/Russian themselves wants to join NATO several times over past decades too didn't they? He is definitely on something else this time for sure, something out of greed.

To be fair, there was huge opposition to the Iraq war - France and Germany were against it, and there was the huge march in London. But when the PM has a 100+ majority, there’s not much can be done. Also, Ukraine is our Eastern border (”our” meaning Europe/ UK) and the aggressor has been our historic antagonist and so it’s only natural there is greater scrutiny because there is more at stake compared to Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen etc. There is undoubtedly double standards in terms of how we react to the refugees compared with non-white countries but that’s a topic for the other thread.
 
People conveniently forget about Iraq which is actually worse because that war was totally for a made up reason.

Putin/Russia want their 'sphere of influence'.

The only way to avoid what happened and more such events is build trust.
You can do that even with your' traditional enemy'.

Goal? Mutual survival.

The fact you’re grading these things is worrying. One worse than the other.
 
To be fair, there was huge opposition to the Iraq war - France and Germany were against it, and there was the huge march in London. But when the PM has a 100+ majority, there’s not much can be done. Also, Ukraine is our Eastern border (”our” meaning Europe/ UK) and the aggressor has been our historic antagonist and so it’s only natural there is greater scrutiny because there is more at stake compared to Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen etc. There is undoubtedly double standards in terms of how we react to the refugees compared with non-white countries but that’s a topic for the other thread.

Yes. it seems as if some want to run with a sweeping generalisation that no one in west cares about what goes on in the ME or other parts of the world. Totally wrong and misleading.
 
Russia joining the NATO would have meant to create a new common security architecture in Europe. The decision against that made clear to Russia that NATO exists to oppose the Russians.

Putin wants to restore the Russian empire as it existed before the SU. Ukraine was wrestled away from Russia in WW1

Putin is against the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (1918) and The Treaty of Rapallo (1922).