Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Putin's specialty as previously shown in Grozny and Aleppo.
He has one strategy and that is to pound cities into rubble.
He was able to do that in Grozny because no one cared or even really took an interest. He was able to enter the theater in Syria because of Obama failing to act upon his supposed red line. And he is able to do it in Ukraine because, as part of his calculus and rationale for undertaking the current slaughter, he observed that the current POTUS is in his second childhood. Russia, mainly through Lavrov, has been pushing the notion of a post-western/US led order for years now. Now they're making it an observable reality on the ground.
 
We’re approaching the point where there will have been more refugees coming out of Ukraine in just over a week than there were in the entire year of the 2015 migrant crisis. It’s incredible how the neighbouring countries have coped.
 
Wtf? I'd love a Russian cat.

"Pspspspspsps come here puss puss."
"Fire can't melt steel beams. Is capitalist conspiracy."
"Should've got another dog ffs."
Trouble is they’re trained, masters of disguise. You wouldn’t know one until it was too late.

Look at this one down our local cat rescue centre. Looks entirely innocent.

 
We’re approaching the point where there will have been more refugees coming out of Ukraine in just over a week than there were in the entire year of the 2015 migrant crisis. It’s incredible how the neighbouring countries have coped.
I can feel it first hand here in Kraków which has probably taken the largest number of all European cities. It’s going to be okay as long as people keep the same attitude they had for the last week. We already had a big Ukrainian community here even before war, it’s going to increase significantly but I really think they will feel welcomed here.

Apparently around 450k of the 660k that had left until yesterday want to remain in Poland.

Border is still surreal. Went to a different one today, felt even more ridiculous. It’s like a completely different world to what I’m used to.
 
We’re approaching the point where there will have been more refugees coming out of Ukraine in just over a week than there were in the entire year of the 2015 migrant crisis. It’s incredible how the neighbouring countries have coped.
Saw this story on BBC News tonight… families waiting in Berlin for Ukrainian refugees to offer them a room/home.

Every time you think the worlds going to shit, good people remind you it’s not all bad.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60611188
 
Based on absolutely nothing from the past 20 years?

Based on everything the past 20 years. Despots and tyrants haven fallen all over the world. Some replaced by other despots and tyrants, and some not replaced at all.
Russia is a mafia state. Their political core of corrupt gangsters are turning on the leader. Will the people finally turn on the gangsters in the aftermath?

I really don't see why this is such an unrealistic outcome.
 
This is going to escalate to WW3 isn’t it?

Provided that a war is always unpredictable, the Guardian is now reporting this, which at least suggests they are trying to agree a playbook:

  • The Pentagon has established communication with the Russian ministry of defense, “for the purpose of preventing miscalculation, military incidents, and escalation”, a defense official told the AP. That such a “deconfliction” line has been established has not been officially announced yet, but multiple news organizations have confirmed the news. The line was reportedly established on 1 March.
 
The sad thing is Britain and American for all their rhetoric about “Putin must lose”couldn’t really be doing more to ensure Ukraine is defeated…whilst walking the tightrope of saying and doing just enough to pacify some listeners. Its never enough to even come close to risking Putin not getting what he wants. Watching the playground bully beat a kid to death but can’t intervene because attention will turn to you. They’ve decided to let putin have Ukraine that’s obvious, they are up against an undefeatable force, even without the 5000 nuclear weapons they have. A line of military vehicles 40km long has been stationary for 3 days and isn’t even under threat of attack front the air. That fact alone says it’s over already. It’s WW3 to our leaders if they shoot at Russians but what the fcuk is it now for anyone Ukraine. Soon it will be the same for other countries. If it was a boxing match the white towel would be getting thrown in by now on their behalf. I mean the white flags are flying around the world already because you can’t beat a nuclear powerhouse.

It’s more like Ukraine is just the latest, unfortunate, underserving warground in a more general list of wargrounds scattered on the entire planet, with any interested party playing their part.
 
What are these stupid cretins doing near that nuclear power plant? It's like they are either on a suicide mission or so utterly dumb they don't understand if that thing goes on meltdown they're all dead.
 
The sad thing is Britain and American for all their rhetoric about “Putin must lose”couldn’t really be doing more to ensure Ukraine is defeated…whilst walking the tightrope of saying and doing just enough to pacify some listeners. Its never enough to even come close to risking Putin not getting what he wants. Watching the playground bully beat a kid to death but can’t intervene because attention will turn to you. They’ve decided to let putin have Ukraine that’s obvious, they are up against an undefeatable force, even without the 5000 nuclear weapons they have. A line of military vehicles 40km long has been stationary for 3 days and isn’t even under threat of attack front the air. That fact alone says it’s over already. It’s WW3 to our leaders if they shoot at Russians but what the fcuk is it now for anyone Ukraine. Soon it will be the same for other countries. If it was a boxing match the white towel would be getting thrown in by now on their behalf. I mean the white flags are flying around the world already because you can’t beat a nuclear powerhouse.

You might be right, but I can guarantee you that if your view prevailed at any point during the Cold War, human civilization wouldn't exist today. People aren't using "they've got nukes" as an excuse, it's the end game. War sucks, but even for the Ukrainians this is infinitely better than it would get if a genuine nuclear exchange took place, with World War 3. And even if everyone manages to restrain themselves enough to keep it a limited nuclear exchange and not the total destruction of humankind, the War that follows is going to be worse than anything we've seen yet.
 
The whole thing summarizes my feelings exactly. The longer we wait to take action, the higher the price will be.
The bit about choosing lower risk today for higher risk tomorrow is very poignant. That was basically Merkel's approach to governing Germany (and by extension setting the general direction for the EU), for all her supposed successes.

And now the chickens are coming home to roost.

There's probably many things the public doesn't know. Maybe Putin felt it wasn't the right moment yet. Maybe he wanted to wait out the pandemic.
I thought there were rumours he was shit-scared of dying (in general as well) of Covid. Now he feels safer that he (probably) has the Western vaccine (no way he uses the Russian one :lol: ).

So he's up for the 'challenge' of making a historic mark, especially because he's lost two years of the very few he's probably got left, withou the speculated illness and other threats around him.

This just underscoes that here is no feaasible way out for Putin in all of this. He will never be able to return to pre-invasion normalcy, nor will he be able to intimidate anyone with his farce of a military. He is basically reduced to being an insecure, old man with nukes. Can't see him lasting much longer to be honest.
I didn't reply to your earlier post and I'd love for you to be right about him being cooked but I don't see it (no expert, just my opinion/feeling).

Suffice to say, for the past 15 years, whenever I've felt things can get worse, no matter how far-fetched, it's happened. I feeling dread about this guy and all the cronies too afraid to raise a hand against a geriatric.
 
You might be right, but I can guarantee you that if your view prevailed at any point during the Cold War, human civilization wouldn't exist today. People aren't using "they've got nukes" as an excuse, it's the end game. War sucks, but even for the Ukrainians this is infinitely better than it would get if a genuine nuclear exchange took place, with World War 3. And even if everyone manages to restrain themselves enough to keep it a limited nuclear exchange and not the total destruction of humankind, the War that follows is going to be worse than anything we've seen yet.
It's all a big pile of shite this world we live in with all these super power nations finding themselves in the need of producing nuclear bombs. They can all go feck themselves. For what purpose other than to obliterate the planet would you ever need such a thing?
 
A russian writes in my local newspaper, she says Putin has calculated the reactions, sanctions and hatred towards Russias actions into his plans. It is meant to fuel nationalism in Russia. He wants this. Hatred and aggression from us in the west will be used in state media to shape the people in his ideology. He wants to Russians to hate the west. Another North-Korea, just a lot bigger and scarier.

The thing is to what end goal? The USSR-Afghanistan war nearly bankrupted and eventually broke up the USSR.

With all the current sanctions, how long can he maintain that posture?
 
This is giving me PTSD. Another Chernobyl would be too much...

The incompetent feckers can poison Europe before even getting into a real conflict.
I actually have PTSD and all of this shit show has made it worse. I am trying to stay away from all this but it's almost impossible not to follow as it feels the entire planet is on the line here.
 
I actually have PTSD and all of this shit show has made it worse. I am trying to stay away from all this but it's almost impossible not to follow as it feels the entire planet is on the line here.
It's fecked up. I've learnt to ignore a lot in my life to stay sane but this is a step too far.

My family may be in the way of another nuclear disaster, happening in the same country as Chernobyl. But this time because of a rabid egocentric maniac with an incompetent army.

Meanwhile, Roman is getting praise for donating to charity and being a good owner of Chelski. Just too much.
 
Can we hope Putin gets a bad case of covid or is that frowned upon?

I hope he gets a case of the Covidchok.

I'm curious what his precautions are right now for meetings aside from the two week isolation. I wonder if they have to go through metal detectors, etc. to be near him. Would be a real shame if the Kremlin received a bunch of nasal swabs covered in novichok for their COVID testing. Or maybe spike his Botox so he gets botulism.