Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[FrantikChicken]

I'm speaking to my friend in Moscow and she says it's getting pretty bad there. The price of basic things like milk etc goes up everyday and they're shutting down all independent TV and radio.

She can't access her savings in Euros/dollars and can only use russian currency, which is getting worse and worse.

A lot of the population, especially older folk are completely brainwashed. Half her friends have already fled the country. Some others are trying to pretend like nothing is happening and others are still trying to protest but people are more and more afraid because of jail sentences. People on the streets generally look scared and afraid, avoiding eye contact etc.

Says her friend works high up in government and nobody expected this to happen, it was kept very secret. Apparently only 5 people have close access to Putin and they're all very much under his influence. All the elite are scared of him.

 

[JJ12]

Why?

Just means the rest of the world gets to wake up and see how these countries act to murder.

Any sign of them backing Russia is a bit concerning to our civilisation.

Maybe there’s another angle?

 

[TMDaines]

 

[Dans]

I was born in USSR, am native Russian speaker, but not Russian by nationality. Let me give you an example. US ambassador in my country gives a speech in local language when he congratulates citizens on some national hoilidays. The Russian ambassador gives a similar speech in Russian. An absolute majority of Russian people never learnt languages of the ex-USSR republics, despite having born and lived there for 2-3 generations.

Wasn't aware of that - thanks. Then no need for Harms to chime in

 

[Water Melon]

Wasn't aware of that - thanks. Then no need for Harms to chime in

Harms is an absolutely terrific person, that much I am pretty sure of. It takes some courage to go out and protest like he did. Hats off to him.

 

[Dans]

As for China, given what they have done to the Uighurs, why would we expect anything less than their support for Russia?

What the west needs to be doing is investing in self sufficiency. Stop buying China tat, invest in renewables, in short do everything to minimise reliance on anything produced or extracted from either China or Russia. If that means selling fewer fecking phones, then so be it.

 

[Dans]

Harms is an absolutely terrific person, that much I am pretty sure of. It takes some courage to go out and protest like he did. Hats off to him.

I share your opinion based on his posts, absolutely. I was only asking that he verify what you said as a Russian (not knowing your background).

 

[Water Melon]

I share your opinion based on his posts, absolutely. I was only asking that he verify what you said as a Russian (not knowing your background).

He might be of completely opposite opinion to that of mine though. We all hate Putin, we all want peace and prosperity in our countries.

 

[Mihai]

This is interesting - can @harms chime in here - is this about how it is?

They are correct, based on my experience. I am from Moldova and we have a big russian ethnic minority. It's quite widespread that Russian speaking people don't bother to learn Romanian, which is the official language.

 

[MTF]

I'm not sure that would be wise. I could see a full scale air attack going for every known missile launching site in Russia. Probably the biggest air attack in history. If it required putting special forces in to disable facilities then so be it. The problem would be the Nuclear Subs.

I think the intention would be to try and limit the amount of sites they could launch more Nukes from. Rather than us simply trading one Nuke with another.

An attack on nuclear forces is called a first-strike, and because the message is loud and clear ("I'm taking your nukes away"), it is to be prosecuted with nuclear weapons not conventional ones, to maximize the chances of destroying all of the launchers and bases.

 

[Revan]

I'm not sure that would be wise. I could see a full scale air attack going for every known missile launching site in Russia. Probably the biggest air attack in history. If it required putting special forces in to disable facilities then so be it. The problem would be the Nuclear Subs.

I think the intention would be to try and limit the amount of sites they could launch more Nukes from. Rather than us simply trading one Nuke with another.

That guarantees a full retaliation from Russia though. It takes longer to shoot Russian ICBMs (and we don't know where many of them are) deep in Russia, then for Russia to throw them. And as you said, there are the Russian subs, who then would retaliate.

So, if Russia nukes Ukraine, I think there are two options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does massive non-nuke air strikes in Russian troops in Ukraine.

If Russia nukes some NATO country, I guess we have 3 options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does tit for tat to de-escalate the situation; c) NATO fully retaliates which means Russia fully counter-retaliates.

If Russia nukes US, then I think we expect a full immediate retaliation, in fact before the ICBM/SLBM hits the US, the US has thrown hundreds of nukes towards Russia with thousands being prepared.

 

[BlueHaze]

@harms How is everything with you my friend? And how is the situation in Russia right now?

 

[do.ob]

That's my take, too, but if you really think about it, does he really need such a settlement? If he's forced to retreat, he could just spin it like "see? We denazified Ukraine and took out their military. There's no threat to Russians anymore". It would probably weakens his political position against people who know what really happens. But if the sanctioned didn't lead to a coup, this wouldn't either I suppose. Russia has moved past facts, they'll just sell to their public whatever suits their narrative the most.

I think the real question is: How much is the population willing to accept? We see at North Korea that "modern" dictatorships can completely dominate the population but in contrast to North Korea, the Russians actually got a glimps what freedom and luxury (relatively speaking) tastes like.

A dictator lives and dies based on his (projected) strength. Brainwashing his own population is one thing, but if he were to leave Ukraine empty handed after more or less humiliating his military, losing thousands of soldiers and wrecking his own economy, then I assume the people around him would get their daggers out.
The same goes for his foreign policy: I assume Nato could relatively easily stop his forces in Ukraine, but it's this image of a strong and unscrupulous leader that makes them too afraid to get actively involved.
And even this idea that he has absolutely nothing to fear about on the domestic front might be a bit naive. It sure doesn't feel like it, but we're just a couple of days into the war and the sanctions, war enthusiasm and emotions are probably at their peak. But that doesn't mean it will always be like that, once the economy deteriorates further and the coffins come home, going on and on about Nato and Nazis in Ukraine might not be so effective anymore.

 

[UncleBob]

That guarantees a full retaliation from Russia though. It takes longer to shoot Russian ICBMs (and we don't know where many of them are) deep in Russia, then for Russia to throw them. And as you said, there are the Russian subs, who then would retaliate.

So, if Russia nukes Ukraine, I think there are two options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does massive non-nuke air strikes in Russian troops in Ukraine.

If Russia nukes some NATO country, I guess we have 3 options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does tit for tat to de-escalate the situation; c) NATO fully retaliates which means Russia fully counter-retaliates.

If Russia nukes US, then I think we expect a full immediate retaliation, in fact before the ICBM/SLBM hits the US, the US has thrown hundreds of nukes towards Russia with thousands being prepared.

Nobody is firing nukes.

 

[Revan]

Nobody is firing nukes.

We live in hope.

 

[BlueHaze]

It's fecked up. I've learnt to ignore a lot in my life to stay sane but this is a step too far.

My family may be in the way of another nuclear disaster, happening in the same country as Chernobyl. But this time because of a rabid egocentric maniac with an incompetent army.

Meanwhile, Roman is getting praise for donating to charity and being a good owner of Chelski. Just too much.

I'm assuming your family is in Ukraine? Blessings to them if that's the case, hope everything is okay with them. As for the sports stuff, don't bother wasting your energy with that crap mate.

 

[Dans]

They are correct, based on my experience. I am from Moldova and we have a big russian ethnic minority. It's quite widespread that Russian speaking people don't bother to learn Romanian, which is the official language.

Thanks Mihai. Sounds much like most Brits abroad to be honest.

Hoping your country doesn't get dragged into this.

 

[RedSky]

An attack on nuclear forces is called a first-strike, and because the message is loud and clear ("I'm taking your nukes away"), it is to be prosecuted with nuclear weapons not conventional ones, to maximize the chances of destroying all of the launchers and bases.

Doing so just leads to Russia firing them back. It's a lose, lose scenario and although we'd be going after military targets, we'd have no assurances that Russias would be. At least by conventional means it puts less emphasis on firing them back as we haven't traded. Perhaps just wishful thinking on my part but if we did launch a single Nuke at Russia then that would be the end of days. No thank you.

 

[BlueHaze]

"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022

 

[RedSky]

Anyway, hypothetical nuclear war can probably be thrown in a different thread. So if you want to continue that discussion go start a thread @Revan

 

[Water Melon]

"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022

Ffs

 

[VorZakone]

"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022

Dammit Biden, not now.

 

[Dans]

Dammit Biden, not now.

The least conspicuous POTUS ever, and for good reason.

 

[Smores]

Any sign of them backing Russia is a bit concerning to our civilisation.

Maybe there’s another angle?

Well It's not really about backing Russia, they don't allow anything with a strong political message especially if it's protests.

Just the usual censorship really from them.

 

[RedorDead21]

That guarantees a full retaliation from Russia though. It takes longer to shoot Russian ICBMs (and we don't know where many of them are) deep in Russia, then for Russia to throw them. And as you said, there are the Russian subs, who then would retaliate.

So, if Russia nukes Ukraine, I think there are two options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does massive non-nuke air strikes in Russian troops in Ukraine.

If Russia nukes some NATO country, I guess we have 3 options: a) NATO does nothing; b) NATO does tit for tat to de-escalate the situation; c) NATO fully retaliates which means Russia fully counter-retaliates.

If Russia nukes US, then I think we expect a full immediate retaliation, in fact before the ICBM/SLBM hits the US, the US has thrown hundreds of nukes towards Russia with thousands being prepared.

You say “Russia” but it’s basically a guy and his inner circle…you don’t seem to imagine a scenario where they target a Putin kill only, say a drone attack on him before they push any nuclear button surely that destroys the planet? Yea taking him out might not impact any Russian nuke strike but you’d have to try and hope before simply going straight to the end game. We must have secret service operatives in Moscow im not suggesting in his inner circle but certainly around perhaps…it’s fanciful but they came close to just this with Hitler.

 

[Interval]

"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022

Someone please please find him a retirement community. It was either this guy or trump. Damn.

 

[gorky_utd]

"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022

 

[Sir Matt]

Modern deployed physics packages are thermonuclear fission bombs. They use regular fission cores which are boosted by tritium gas, in a process that I won't describe here. That is very different from a hydrogen (fusion) device which although can reach greater yield is impractical and requires certain conditions which are hard to maintain.

Thermonuclear indicates they are fusion bombs. The fission reaction then causes the fusion reaction of the tritium stage.

 

[Rajma]

I was born in USSR, am native Russian speaker, but not Russian by nationality. Let me give you an example. US ambassador in my country gives a speech in local language when he congratulates citizens on some national hoilidays. The Russian ambassador gives a similar speech in Russian. An absolute majority of Russian people never learnt languages of the ex-USSR republics, despite having born and lived there for 2-3 generations.

What country is this? Latvia/Estonia I take?

 

[golden_blunder]

Russians brainwashed… after four years with Trump leading the US and a failed coup, after all the Brexit thing aimed at dividing Europe, after having had Russian funded leaders and parties in all the EU to shift its geoplitics… after all that we are now complaining about Russians apathetically accepting their country becoming North Korea 2.0? A bit precious, maybe. Fortunately for us in the West, Biden’s apparatus is keeping all proportionally in touch, for now. What comes tomorrow, we can’t know yet… No one is expecting Putin just to backdrop with a snarl, that’s where people really knowing and managing warfare sh*t will hopefully come apt.

Posted by a mate from Poland

The "Soviet man" is characterised by his tendency to follow the authority of the state in its assessment of reality, to adopt an attitude of mistrust and anxiety towards anything foreign and unknown, and is convinced of his own powerlessness and inability to affect the surrounding reality; from here, it is only a step towards lacking any sense of responsibility for that reality. His suppressed aggression, birthed by his chronic dissatisfaction with life, his intense sense of injustice and his inability to achieve self-realisation, and his great envy, all erupt into a fascination with force and violence, as well as a tendency towards "negative identification" – in opposition to "the enemy" or "the foreigner". Such a personality suits a quasi-tribal approach to standards of morality and law (the things "our people" have a right to do are condemned in the "foreigner").

— "Conflict-dependent Russia. The domestic determinants of the Kremlin's anti-western policy", Maria Domańska

************************

To understand why so many people in Russia seem to be indifferent, or supportive of the war in Ukraine, one must understand the effect of over 100 years of mind programming and propaganda, that resulted in creating "Homo Sovieticus" .

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hom...rg7dGZTA0pv4JytwdeD5mXUxPHptt1r6M65uHYUCEWWik

 

[Sarni]

We live in hope.

No, it's pretty much certain there will be no nukes. I was concerned about it a few days ago but even since it has become very, very clear there is literally zero chance of nuclear war.

 

[nickm]

Report in German news suggesting that Zelenski has survived another assasination attempt thanks to someone in the russian secret service who is against the war.

Could be propaganda, would be nice if it was true though.

I wouldn't be surprised if that's a cover story, seems a bit too convenient. Maybe cover for methods the US is keen to keep more secret.

 

[Dans]

I wouldn't be surprised if that's a cover story, seems a bit too convenient. Maybe cover for methods the US is keen to keep more secret.

As someone else said, if it were true, you'd not publically say so! Case closed I think.

 

[pauldyson1uk]

Concerning at the very least

I dont find it the least bit concerning.

 

[Sarni]

I'd probably expect Zelensky to be well outside of Kyiv already.

 

[sglowrider]

"Putin may circle Kyiv with tanks but he'll never gain the hearts and souls of the Iranian people." - POTUS 2022

Tbf he mumbled thru the Uk..rain....part of the word. Sounded like Iranian instead.
His dentures probably got in the way.

 

[The Firestarter]

Thermonuclear indicates they are fusion bombs. The fission reaction then causes the fusion reaction of the tritium stage.

The point is that the bulk of the released energy comes from the fission. Only 1% comes from the fusion. Which is not the case in an actual fusion bomb.

 

[Revan]

I'd probably expect Zelensky to be well outside of Kyiv already.

He has not done any video outside for a few days, I think.

 

[IWat]

I'm not sure that would be wise. I could see a full scale air attack going for every known missile launching site in Russia. Probably the biggest air attack in history. If it required putting special forces in to disable facilities then so be it. The problem would be the Nuclear Subs.

I think the intention would be to try and limit the amount of sites they could launch more Nukes from. Rather than us simply trading one Nuke with another.

Not something I am an expert in. But the only way I see this working is if you had a number of subs scattered across the north coast of Russia that simultaneously launched from right off the coast, they might just be able to hit the launch sites before the info could work its way through the chain of command to authorise, back to the launchers and for them to get the weapons away.

It doesn't solve the sub problem though, and it doesn't solve the mobile launchers.

 

[Rajma]

Let me guess, you’ve read a study that was done by Putin’s sociological institution. That really tells you everything you need to know.

So far every invasion/occupation from Putin has been met with a rise in popularity, I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine that he consolidated a bit again, those who have been leaning anyway I guess. If only your country was full of brave people like you this would have never happened in the first place, as Putin would have been long gone by now.