Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Never ceases to amaze me how often governments / organisations / companies make really unpopular or morally bankrupt decisions only to reverse that decision when uproar ensues to end up doing what they should have done in the first place with their reputation having taken a knock.
 
You cant compare the size of the Ukrainian military with that of Saddam's military. Iraq had a lot more tanks, planes and soldiers -- a lot who were battle-harden from its previous conflicts.
Big diff.

The number of (old) tanks, planes and soldiers means absolutely nothing when you're being peppered from the sky constantly by the world's most advanced air force and missile battery.

It's of course silly to compare anyway because a) Russia is, without nukes, a middle power and America is a hyperpower and b) because Ukraines military is probably in a better shape than the Iraqi military was in 2003.

Either way, Russia have lost a lot more already (I imagine partly because the imbalance of forces is much less) and hopefully this causes a rethink from the Russian inner circle.
 
The number of (old) tanks, planes and soldiers means absolutely nothing when you're being peppered from the sky constantly by the world's most advanced air force and missile battery.

It's of course silly to compare anyway because a) Russia is, without nukes, a middle power and America is a hyperpower and b) because Ukraines military is probably in a better shape than the Iraqi military was in 2003.

Either way, Russia have lost a lot more already (I imagine partly because the imbalance of forces is much less) and hopefully this causes a rethink from the Russian inner circle.

I think they thought they could invade Ukraine on the cheap -- a bit like the Cheney doctrine. The problem will be how will they hold the cities? They will need a lot more than the 190-200k troops they have utilised. Too thinly stretched out then they just get picked off during the next phase, insurgency. Then the body bags start to pile up for Putin.

In parallel, can Putin afford a sustained war? How will he pay for it all in view of all the financial restrictions. He will really have to pick his poison in a few months time.

Time is what the Ukraininans need. They need to buy time.
 
Well it took the US/UK 3 weeks to take Baghdad. It's the media that controls the narrative so they are playing it hard that Russia is struggling, the same media at that time weren't saying that the US/UK coalition were struggling (although I'm sure Iraqi state media was!).

You'd figure given how we're being told Russia is so shit at this war thing that the EU would be less fearful about attacking them. They might throw a nuclear bomb on themselves.

This is a massive fecking army, they'll take over eventually. The EU won't do anything, that's the sad reality, I just hope the Ukrainians don't let them sleep easy for the time they are there.

Baghdad is right in the middle of the country. It took 2 weeks to get there across desert and 4 days to take it once they'd arrived. At no point were the US forces significantly slowed down in their advances and they took less than 200 casualties in the whole campaign. Its nothing like the Russians stalled outside Kyiv.
 
:eek::eek: This looks so fake? But claimed to be the downing by Ukraine.

My first thought was fake...but i think i'm being duped by the high quality of the video?

 
Last edited:
:eek::eek: This looks so fake? But claimed to be the downing by Ukraine.

My first thought was fake...but i think i'm being duped by the high quality of the video?



In your opinion, what exactly looks fake about this video? I am by no means an expert, but to me, it looks real.
 
:eek::eek: This looks so fake? But claimed to be the downing by Ukraine.

My first thought was fake...but i think i'm being duped by the high quality of the video?



Looks real enough to me.

Just keep supplying the Ukrainians with Javelins and Stingers, and they can make this extremely difficult for the Russians.
 
In your opinion, what exactly looks fake about this video? I am by no means an expert, but to me, it looks real.

The smoke was my first thought, however that's what i mean by the good quality is throwing me. First thought was fake, but then i thought the HQ nature of it was just messing with my brain and is probably real :wenger:
 
I think they thought they could invade Ukraine on the cheap -- a bit like the Cheney doctrine. The problem will be how will they hold the cities? They will need a lot more than the 190-200k troops they have utilised. Too thinly stretched out then they just get picked off during the next phase, insurgency. Then the body bags start to pile up for Putin.

In parallel, can Putin afford a sustained war? How will he pay for it all in view of all the financial restrictions. He will really have to pick his poison in a few months time.

Time is what the Ukraininans need. They need to buy time.

Yep, difficult to know whether Putin genuinely miscalculated so significantly or what we're hearing is slightly exaggerated in terms of Russian war aims. One of the major long term problems of dictatorships, especially ones based on one man, is that they inevitably surround themselves with yes men and discard of those who disagree.

So I can genuinely believe that Putin thought he'd be welcomed into Ukraine as liberators, I can believe that he genuinely thinks he's there to 'denazify' Ukraine. God knows what he's thinking now. Probably that he would have taken the country already if it wasn't for the pesky West.

Don't see how this can be a sustained operation for them to be honest.
 
The smoke was my first thought, however that's what i mean by the good quality is throwing me. First thought was fake, but then i thought the HQ nature of it was just messing with my brain and is probably real :wenger:

yeah, the quality is absolutely insane, that's true. If it's a fake, it's one of the best I've ever seen - and while it's reasonable to have doubts seeing such footage in this quality, I think it actually is real.
What we should never forget when watching this combat footage, that every human death is a tragedy and although one might cheer for the Ukrainians to be able to prolongue this war and showing what they are capable of, human beings were unnecessarily killed. Those soldiers have mothers, fathers, children, grandfathers, friends...ripped from their earthly existence. In the matter of seconds, for nothing.
I understand the reality of war and I am obviously pro Ukraine in this conflict, but even in the anonymity of such videos we must not forget the individuals on either side. It's incredibly sad.
War is hell.
 
yeah, the quality is absolutely insane, that's true. If it's a fake, it's one of the best I've ever seen - and while it's reasonable to have doubts seeing such footage in this quality, I think it actually is real.
What we should never forget when watching this combat footage, that every human death is a tragedy and although one might cheer for the Ukrainians to be able to prolongue this war and showing what they are capable of, human beings' bodies were unnecessarily killed. Those soldiers have mothers, fathers, children, grandfathers, friends...ripped from their earthly existence. In the matter of seconds, for nothing.
I understand the reality of war and I am obviously pro Ukraine in this conflict, but even in the anonymity of such videos we must not forget the individuals on either side. It's incredibly sad.
War is hell.

Presumably fighter pilots in the Russian military are a bit higher up the chain and probably on Putins side. feck him. (or her).

Edit: well...I guess as it's fake atleast nobody died!
 
Yep, difficult to know whether Putin genuinely miscalculated so significantly or what we're hearing is slightly exaggerated in terms of Russian war aims. One of the major long term problems of dictatorships, especially ones based on one man, is that they inevitably surround themselves with yes men and discard of those who disagree.

So I can genuinely believe that Putin thought he'd be welcomed into Ukraine as liberators, I can believe that he genuinely thinks he's there to 'denazify' Ukraine. God knows what he's thinking now. Probably that he would have taken the country already if it wasn't for the pesky West.

Don't see how this can be a sustained operation for them to be honest.
Or.............it's going to plan and he wants us to think it isn't? I think his aim is to have the Ukraine and turn it into Belorussia II. The longer it takes, the more leave, the more it's destroyed, the less livable it is. He then eventually gets a massive area rich in resources.
 
Presumably fighter pilots in the Russian military are a bit higher up the chain and probably on Putins side. feck him. (or her).

I understand the hate and that many of them willingly chose their fate, but I can not avoid feeling misery and having compassion with everyone involved, no matter what their motivations were. I pity the guilty as I pity the innocent. My brain says I shouldn't and that they don't deserve to be pitied, but I simply feel it.
 
The smoke was my first thought, however that's what i mean by the good quality is throwing me. First thought was fake, but then i thought the HQ nature of it was just messing with my brain and is probably real :wenger:

The smoke is what convinced me it was real footage. CGI isn't that good.
 


There's an interview on WSJ with some Ukrainian special forces guys saying they are going out every night attacking the Russian supply columns. They say they've lost 2 guys to about 60 Russians killed and dozens of trucks and armour destroyed. All of them armed with UK donated weapons and trained by Nato over the last few years.
 
There's an interview on WSJ with some Ukrainian special forces guys saying they are going out every night attacking the Russian supply columns. They say they've lost 2 guys to about 60 Russians killed and dozens of trucks and armour destroyed. All of them armed with UK donated weapons and trained by Nato over the last few years.

If the below article is true and specialists from around Europe are being brought together to create a mercenary insurgency army it would be a major boost to the Ukrainian effort.

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/sas-veterans-ukraines-fight-russia-26352610
 
One of the replies in the comments says it's a mistranslation. Not 1 year ago but 1 hour ago?


It’s 1 hour. If it was in Russian it would be 1 year. The Ukrainian word for hour is very close to the Russian year.
 
Maybe it's cynical, but I'm extremely sceptical of the Mariupol ceasefire. Seems like an excuse to level the city afterwards, claiming everyone remaining is an enemy combatant
 
Maybe it's cynical, but I'm extremely sceptical of the Mariupol ceasefire. Seems like an excuse to level the city afterwards, claiming everyone remaining is an enemy combatant

Do they need excuses for that anymore?
 
:eek::eek: This looks so fake? But claimed to be the downing by Ukraine.

My first thought was fake...but i think i'm being duped by the high quality of the video?


Imagine being the pilot and having that half-second realisation that you are finished on this world. Sad, scary stuff.
 
So which was it? :lol:

This twitter account was the one claiming it translated to "a year ago" but they fecked up the translation and used Russian. The actual translation in Ukrainian was "an hour ago". :lol: :lol:

So very likely to be real footage.
 
So overall, Putin has spent the last 2 decades creating his own reality however contrary it is to the facts. This has served him well as it has allowed to turn people both at home in Russia and overseas into fractious elements due to the confusion that he could play to his own wants. He has spoken to the west in both threatening and friendly terms to prove his importance. The problem is when put into the crucible of war the reality of the situation is always dominant no matter how much fiction you try to spin. This war has told the world that this isn't some super strategist, with a vast military power he can use. Outside of the Nukes ( I know not a small thing, but negligible due to MAD) the fears of Russian invasion into Europe and NATO countries is highly improbable in terms of Russia's capabilities and they're not a superpower but more akin to UK and France, powerful, but on their own unable to dominate the world through military projection.

My one concern is that this is the chance to get Putin and the KGB system of governance in Russia and change the future relations between Russia and the West. Whether its one that is taken is a different matter entirely.
 
yeah, the quality is absolutely insane, that's true. If it's a fake, it's one of the best I've ever seen - and while it's reasonable to have doubts seeing such footage in this quality, I think it actually is real.
What we should never forget when watching this combat footage, that every human death is a tragedy and although one might cheer for the Ukrainians to be able to prolongue this war and showing what they are capable of, human beings were unnecessarily killed. Those soldiers have mothers, fathers, children, grandfathers, friends...ripped from their earthly existence. In the matter of seconds, for nothing.
I understand the reality of war and I am obviously pro Ukraine in this conflict, but even in the anonymity of such videos we must not forget the individuals on either side. It's incredibly sad.
War is hell.
Great post, there are no winners with bloodshed (ask those soldiers who return from "winning" a war, what mental state they're in).
That said, super chuffed Ukraine is proving able to defend itself, at least more than expected. Even if I'm unsure what's true as the media are mostly mobs of agenda spinning storytellers.
 
Italian authorities have seized assets of around 140 million so far, according to La Repubblica. These include two yachts and a 1000sqm villa in Tuscany.
 

This is the reason that companies shouldn't be allowed to get too big. Even if they are right in this instance to deprive Russians of their livelihood, they can easily abuse this or use this as a threat in the future.