Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Dans said:
This is good - hope she's right:

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I would agree with a lot of that

Also one aspect that has crossed my mind is that there simply isn't any recent history of a large modern military coming up against a large amount of modern defence capabilities

Think us rolling through Iraq or Afghanistan

Or Russia ploughing through Georgia or Syria

Perhaps all sides have overestimated just how effective tanks, helicopters and planes are when they are up against modern defences?

Perhaps the Falklands is the last time the British army was involved with somebody equipped to put up some real resistance ... and that's 40 years ago

We have seen certainly for a generation the modern helicopters etc being unrivalled and I do wonder how effective even the most advanced nato armies would be coming up against the modern anti aircraft missiles, anti tank weapons and advanced electronic countermeasures... for sure I expect it would be more difficult that was experienced against the taliban or rolling into Iraq

Perhaps putin also underestimated the difficulty this would cause a rapid advance?
 
stefan92 said:
Luckily a totally different type of reactor. The WWER concept is much closer to western designs and optimized for civilian usage, just producing a lot of energy safely. Chernobyl's RBMK on the other hand was optimized for creating plutonium for the military and therefore inherently unsafe.
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Is this true?
 
Incredible scenes of Ukrainians spontaneously celebrating liberation. They are either hijacking Russian military equipment or jumping on the moving vehicles with Ukrainian flags.




More scenes in recent days in a new thread:

 
Mariupol mayor live on BBC now saying that the Russians started shelling the city during the evacuation time and started shooting on roads on the way out of the city.

They have had to take citizens backs to the shelters.
 
WPMUFC said:
:eek::eek: This looks so fake? But claimed to be the downing by Ukraine.

My first thought was fake...but i think i'm being duped by the high quality of the video?

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Yeah not buying that's from this conflict, it's certainly not a random person filming it. There's so much misleading footage out there that unless there's multiple verification reports it's safe to assume it's false.
 
TMDaines said:
Incredible scenes of Ukrainians spontaneously celebrating liberation. They are either hijacking Russian military equipment or jumping on the moving vehicles with Ukrainian flags.




More scenes in recent days in a new thread:

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Incredible.
 
TMDaines said:
Mariupol mayor live on BBC now saying that the Russians started shelling the city during the evacuation time and started shooting on roads on the way out of the city.

They have had to take citizens backs to the shelters.
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Surely that can not be true. This is just twirling moustache evil if real.
 
africanspur said:
Yep, difficult to know whether Putin genuinely miscalculated so significantly or what we're hearing is slightly exaggerated in terms of Russian war aims. One of the major long term problems of dictatorships, especially ones based on one man, is that they inevitably surround themselves with yes men and discard of those who disagree.

So I can genuinely believe that Putin thought he'd be welcomed into Ukraine as liberators, I can believe that he genuinely thinks he's there to 'denazify' Ukraine. God knows what he's thinking now. Probably that he would have taken the country already if it wasn't for the pesky West.

Don't see how this can be a sustained operation for them to be honest.
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Many Russian experts have been saying that Putin has dreams of putting back together the former USSR -- and Ukraine is only the beginning. The next target will be Poland or the Baltic states. His legacy project.

If that's the case, it might explain his budget force for Ukraine. He needs to keep a whole of resources in the pocket for the other Soviet states. He always probably mis-read the Ukrainian sentiments as you mentioned (due to being surrounded by 'yes' men) and then had half expected rose petal-strewn roads.

But when you under-man wars, you are susceptible to being picked off in a lot of places especially later when he has to hold the key cities. The Ukrainan strategy is probably to draw them in and then pop them off in urban environments -- and increasing the bodybag count and the domestic political pressures. A poison shrimp strategy.

He may ultimately falter in Ukraine even before his other dream projects kick into gear.
 
It's quite clear Russia have yet to bring their full military force to play.

saving for a full scale invasion of other Soviet states? and possible war with NATO?
 
sun_tzu said:
I would agree with a lot of that

Also one aspect that has crossed my mind is that there simply isn't any recent history of a large modern military coming up against a large amount of modern defence capabilities

Think us rolling through Iraq or Afghanistan

Or Russia ploughing through Georgia or Syria

Perhaps all sides have overestimated just how effective tanks, helicopters and planes are when they are up against modern defences?

Perhaps the Falklands is the last time the British army was involved with somebody equipped to put up some real resistance ... and that's 40 years ago

We have seen certainly for a generation the modern helicopters etc being unrivalled and I do wonder how effective even the most advanced nato armies would be coming up against the modern anti aircraft missiles, anti tank weapons and advanced electronic countermeasures... for sure I expect it would be more difficult that was experienced against the taliban or rolling into Iraq

Perhaps putin also underestimated the difficulty this would cause a rapid advance?
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Or his kick-off timing was poor -- now the vehicles are struggling to get through the muddy roads and fields as the grounds are thawing now.

If this is the case, the delay due to the Winter Olympics must be keeping ol' Vlad up at night. 'Feckin Xi and his stupid Olympics!!!'
 
TMDaines said:
Mariupol mayor live on BBC now saying that the Russians started shelling the city during the evacuation time and started shooting on roads on the way out of the city.

They have had to take citizens backs to the shelters.
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Sadly, I can't say this wasn't unexpected. I feel very little will come of talks until the Russians run out of options.
 
GueRed said:
It's quite clear Russia have yet to bring their full military force to play.

saving for a full scale invasion of other Soviet states? and possible war with NATO?
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200,000 soldiers for Ukraine out of his total 900,000 capacity. He will need another 200k just to hold on to Ukraine after he takes over the critical cities. But maybe weary of his western flanks after especially if Finland and Sweden decided to sign up for Nato.

He maybe stretched too thin for his grand plans.
 
Jotun said:
Surely that can not be true. This is just twirling moustache evil if real.
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The mayor was literally live on the BBC talking to Victoria Derbyshire about it. Not saying there’s not a possibility of dishonesty or disinformation from Ukrainian side, but cease fire is not being observed.

 
sglowrider said:
Many Russian experts have been saying that Putin has dreams of putting back together the former USSR -- and Ukraine is only the beginning. The next target will be Poland or the Baltic states. His legacy project.

If that's the case, it might explain his budget force for Ukraine. He needs to keep a whole of resources in the pocket for the other Soviet states. He always probably mis-read the Ukrainian sentiments as you mentioned (due to being surrounded by 'yes' men) and then had half expected rose petal-strewn roads.

But when you under-man wars, you are susceptible to being picked off in a lot of places especially later when he has to hold the key cities. The Ukrainan strategy is probably to draw them in and then pop them off in urban environments -- and increasing the bodybag count and the domestic political pressures. A poison shrimp strategy.

He may ultimately falter in Ukraine even before his other dream projects kick into gear.
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Poland was not a part of USSR.
 
GlastonSpur said:
NATO began with onlooker status (since Ukraine is not part of NATO)
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True Ukraine isn't part of NATO, but it has been supplying Ukraine and 'poking the Russian Bear' through its closeness in relations. NATO's ability to influence matters on the ground in Ukraine itself will diminish over time, even when the Wests sanctions do have an effect, it will be on the Russian people not on Putin and he will hang on until he gets what he's wanted. Its very doubtful that Putin wants to take over the whole of Ukraine, with all that would involve militarily, economically and politically, but to seize land, just enough and for long enough, to satisfy the broad mass of the Russian public that its been a worthwhile 'special operation'


Spark said:
“Putin will get everything he wants” is also highly unlikely, as demilitarising Ukraine will now mean a long term commitment similar to the US in Afghanistan (and the Soviets before them).
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If Putin does want all of Ukraine, then 'no' that wont happen for the reasons you have given, but if he can secure the east and the southern coast line, with the Crimea as a fall back position, that 'strategic land grab' could go on for years and could even out last the Wests sanctions, for all sanctions fail, eventually. Of course Putin may then decided to step down... or be forced to 'spend more time with his family', either way he will have made his mark and reversed some of the humiliation of losing the cold war!
 
sglowrider said:
Many Russian experts have been saying that Putin has dreams of putting back together the former USSR -- and Ukraine is only the beginning. The next target will be Poland or the Baltic states. His legacy project.

If that's the case, it might explain his budget force for Ukraine. He needs to keep a whole of resources in the pocket for the other Soviet states. He always probably mis-read the Ukrainian sentiments as you mentioned (due to being surrounded by 'yes' men) and then had half expected rose petal-strewn roads.

But when you under-man wars, you are susceptible to being picked off in a lot of places especially later when he has to hold the key cities. The Ukrainan strategy is probably to draw them in and then pop them off in urban environments -- and increasing the bodybag count and the domestic political pressures. A poison shrimp strategy.

He may ultimately falter in Ukraine even before his other dream projects kick into gear.
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I can’t see it being true personally

And if it is true, that his next move would be the Baltic states or even Poland, then all of NATO will be at war with Russia. It’s not even remotely a “ooooo what’s going to happen now” scenario, it’s war.

One foot on Latvian, Estonian, Lithuanian or Polish soil…..isn’t a scenario we can all look at as something occurring in Eastern Europe….it doesn’t effect us, it does! it’s exactly the same as stepping foot on British soil, it’s literally no different, and we will be obliged and certainly willing to meet Russia with the full might of all of NATO.

That’s a scenario none of us want, but it will happen if these so called former generals stating Putins apparent plans are remotely true, which I don’t think they are.

Putin has given his nuclear threats, but before that President Biden has already warned that every inch of NATO soil will be protected with the full and entire force of the US and NATO.
 
Any more news on the impact of the sanctions? Analysis or predictions?
 
TMDaines said:
Another angle from Kherson:


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Beautiful. Watching Ukrainians come together in spite of horrendous circumstances have been so inspirational.
 
Maticmaker said:
True Ukraine isn't part of NATO, but it has been supplying Ukraine and 'poking the Russian Bear' through its closeness in relations. NATO's ability to influence matters on the ground in Ukraine itself will diminish over time, even when the Wests sanctions do have an effect, it will be on the Russian people not on Putin and he will hang on until he gets what he's wanted. Its very doubtful that Putin wants to take over the whole of Ukraine, with all that would involve militarily, economically and politically, but to seize land, just enough and for long enough, to satisfy the broad mass of the Russian public that its been a worthwhile 'special operation' ...
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The phrase "poking the Russian Bear" is not appropriate. This bear has not been caged - instead it is putting others in cages, by aiding repression in many of its old soviet republics, annexing Crimea and areas of E. Ukraine etc.

Resistance to this annexation and repression is not "poking the bear" - it's resistance against an aggressor.

NATO's ability to influence matters on the ground in Ukraine will only increase from here onwards. The flow of weapons and money into Ukraine will gradually ramp up. And the vast majority of Ukrainians will be more eager than ever to turn their eyes westward and away from Russia.
 
harms said:
Nothing to do with a war breaking out & changing the whole public discourse?
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1-10 on the first list being almost exclusively right-wing reactionaries is suspicious. It's not like those guys like Shapiro and Bongino haven't been talking of the war.
 
hellhunter said:
What's the alternative?
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Either don't help or actually help. I'm sure the Ukrainians are very encouraged by the west politicians condemning Russia while London is still an absolute cesspit of Russian money and influence. That will sure stop hospitals and civilian buildings from getting bombed.
 
hellhunter said:
Is it normal to use a fecking Sprinter (or similar) for conquering and occupying a city?
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Maybe the Russians plan to turn up late, do half a job, and say they'll give you a call next week when they have time to finish their invasion but right now they have to leave to pick up their kids from school?
 
Russia: Ukrainian nationalists prevented civilian evacuation
This morning, Mariupol's deputy mayor and a resident in the city told the BBC that Russia continued to shell the area despite a supposed ceasefire beginning at 07:00 GMT.

But Russia's defence ministry has a very different version of events.

It says Ukrainian "nationalists" prevented civilians from leaving the the cities, according to Russia's Ria news agency.

The ministry said that Russian forces came under fire after it had set up humanitarian corridors for civilians to leave the city.
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The problem is that Putin lost the information war the moment he invaded, because it became clear he's an outright liar. I don't know why they still try.
 
Smithy89 said:
Either don't help or actually help. I'm sure the Ukrainians are very encouraged by the west politicians condemning Russia while London is still an absolute cesspit of Russian money and influence. That will sure stop hospitals and civilian buildings from getting bombed.
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Without European and US sanctions, this war could go on for years. Nevermind the other aid in shape of intel, weapons and other material. Short of cutting Russian gas/oil or declaring war, I don't think there's much the West can do
 
Boycott said:
1-10 on the first list being almost exclusively right-wing reactionaries is suspicious. It's not like those guys like Shapiro and Bongino haven't been talking of the war.
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Using 2 lists with 10 positions on them with no context to make any conclusion is unscientific. That's not to say that it can't be true, but throwing a baseless argument in to see if it sticks is exactly the kind of stuff that Shapiro & co. are doing.
 
hellhunter said:
What's the alternative?
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From a German perspective the bare minimum would have been to check the usability of the equipment, before promising it to the Ukrainians and having them waste their time on it while they are at war. I can understand that the Bundeswehr might not have a lot of weapons to give in its current state, but this is just shameful. And in general the sanctions, while still having an effect, seem half-assed.
 
do.ob said:
From a German perspective the bare minimum would have been to check the usability of the equipment, before promising it to the Ukrainians and having them waste their time on it while they are at war. I can understand that the Bundeswehr might not have a lot of weapons to give in its current state, but this is just shameful. And in general the sanctions, while still having an effect, seem half-assed.
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These reports about nonfunctional weapons, was that the first delivery? Or the second one of DDR material?
 
hellhunter said:
These reports about nonfunctional weapons, was that the first delivery? Or the second one of DDR material?
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As far as I know it's referring to the second delivery, but only makes it marginally better.
 
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