Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

CNN's coverage of this war has been top notch, which is not surprising given that they have been doing it well for decades. I remember watching Gulf War 1 in the early 90s with Bernard Shaw, Peter Arnette, and John Holliman reporting from Iraq as the US bombing started.

well, US media has quite the experience when it comes to reporting about war :angel:
 
Seeing some quotes in Polish media of Putin saying operation is nearly complete, is it actually becoming probable that they leave in the next few weeks, he feeds his country some bullshit about mission accomplished and things get much better? Wouldn’t get my hopes up but it doesn’t seem nearly as outlandish as it would have a few days ago.
Yeah read about his claims demilitarisation was nearly complete as well. Just unsure whose demilitarisation at this point
 
how would he sell that?
Well considering they now control all media in Russia and arrest people over saying basically anything that isn’t propaganda, I don’t think he would find it very difficult to sell it to whoever he needs to sell it to. For others with access to worldwide media there’s no outcome where he can win anyway.
 
This has been one of the most eye opening things for me: It feels really weird to have a war unfold through social media and the battle being fought in digital space too. People will correctly say there's always been propaganda and resistance that's been broadcast though media channels and that's true, but it's so much more immediate now.
Yeah, people have tried to argue Syria was the first, but I don’t think it was to the same extent. You had to actively seek that out, whereas this is just a deluge of information every hour. Smart phones, social networks and 3G/LTE Internet are now far more widely adopted than they were during the opening years of Syria.
 
Seeing some quotes in Polish media of Putin saying operation is nearly complete, is it actually becoming probable that they leave in the next few weeks, he feeds his country some bullshit about mission accomplished and things get much better? Wouldn’t get my hopes up but it doesn’t seem nearly as outlandish as it would have a few days ago.

how would he sell that?

If that tweet was true about them forcing out Ukrainians in that Eastern province and replacing them with Russians then by ‘liberating’ those two ‘Russian’ provinces to add to Crimea. Sham elections to follow.

Not having a puppet government in Kyiv would be a hard sell though.
 
If that tweet was true about them forcing out Ukrainians in that Eastern province and replacing them with Russians then by ‘liberating’ those two ‘Russian’ provinces to add to Crimea. Sham elections to follow.

Not having a puppet government in Kiev would be a hard sell though.
They wouldn’t even know what’s going on Kyiv mate.

Actually some theories here that he doesn’t actually know what is going on there, that he’s bunkered up and only fed whatever his generals may want him to hear. Weird as feck but nothing about this whole thing is any different.
 
Not sure Zelensky's newest tactic to blame NATO for not enforcing the no-fly zone is going to be productive.

It is infuriating NATO cannot step in but he should be careful not to antagonise his allies and especially lose the public opinion in the West.

Might sound cynical but I just don't think there's appetite for this action.
 
Putin is not mad.
He has made a calculated gamble.

He knows in a conventional war Russia will lose with heavy losses on both sides.
His one trump card is Nukes.

His hope is among all the slaves of the Military Industrial Complex on the West are some level headed politicians who will make the needed concessions that would mean Russia will still have a huge say on the future of Ukraine.

Hoping the sanctions will remove Putin is wishful thinking.

This is the most serious situation the world has been in since 1962.

But look at the players on the international stage we have now.
 
Putin is not mad.
He has made a calculated gamble.

He knows in a conventional war Russia will lose with heavy losses on both sides.
His one trump card is Nukes.

His hope is among all the slaves of the Military Industrial Complex on the West are some level headed politicians who will make the needed concessions that would mean Russia will still have a huge say on the future of Ukraine.

Hoping the sanctions will remove Putin is wishful thinking.

This is most serious situation the world has been in since 1962.

But looks at the players on the international stage we have now.

These are mutually exclusive.
 
Not sure Zelensky's newest tactic to blame NATO for not enforcing the no-fly zone is going to be productive.

It is infuriating NATO cannot step in but he should be careful not to antagonise his allies and especially lose the public opinion in the West.

Might sound cynical but I just don't think there's appetite for this action.
You have to think laterally and think that it may be on purpose that this is being said so that Putin cannot say that the West is in cahoots with Ukraine.
 
Pretty sure Lavrov already blamed Ukraine forces for not ceasing fire. Classic ‘no he did it first sir!’.

Problem is, even if it was Ukraine who fired first, whatever Russia say now after the constant lies which are refuted with evidence against them just makes them untrustworthy. Who, aside from the Russian public (if that) is going to believe them?
Yeah, he could release footage of Ukrainian soldiers saying on camera "we are going to break the ceasefire first" and show a newspaper with today's date on it, and my gran standing there who also phones me to confirm that this all happened, and I wouldn't believe it at this point.
 
Not sure Zelensky's newest tactic to blame NATO for not enforcing the no-fly zone is going to be productive.

It is infuriating NATO cannot step in but he should be careful not to antagonise his allies and especially lose the public opinion in the West.

Might sound cynical but I just don't think there's appetite for this action.

He's attempting to shame NATO into a a NFZ, when that obviously won't work, since the US and others have made the correct calculation that a NFZ means shooting down Russian planes, which means NATO would be lured into a hot war with Russia. His frustration is obviously justified given that his life, that of his family, and his country are hanging in the balance. That said, it would appear the approach that is working is arming Ukrainian units with intelligence and sophisticated weapons, and simultaneously strangling the Russian economy into submission. Short of suicide (nukes), the odds that Putin will eventually have to capitulate are growing by the day.
 
You have to think laterally and think that it may be on purpose that this is being said so that Putin cannot say that the West is in cahoots with Ukraine.
Good point.

Fight in front of Russia, send 'volunteers' through the backdoor.
 
They will encounter the same sentiments in all ex-soviet regions.
Absolutely! Why does he think they want NATO and EU membership and to move away from his influence? Nobody wants to be ruled by thugs who have stolen billions from the people and who are happy to oppress and even kill those who disagree with them. It's not rocket science. Yet he blames the West:rolleyes:
 
Putin is not mad.
He has made a calculated gamble.

He knows in a conventional war Russia will lose with heavy losses on both sides.
His one trump card is Nukes.

His hope is among all the slaves of the Military Industrial Complex on the West are some level headed politicians who will make the needed concessions that would mean Russia will still have a huge say on the future of Ukraine.

Hoping the sanctions will remove Putin is wishful thinking.

This is the most serious situation the world has been in since 1962.

But look at the players on the international stage we have now.
I think he realized nukes are not working because to use them and justify this in front of his group there would need to be direct military threat from anyone to Russia and the way NATO countries have played it so far has been largely brilliant. They’ve pushed him into the corner without using a single soldier. At this point nukes are gone and he seems to have realized that in his last two speeches.
 
Mayor of Mariupol in CNN now basically confirming the Russians used the ceasefire to lure citizens into the open, then attacked them.

He claims Putin's goal is to destroy Ukraine as a nation.
 
Well considering they now control all media in Russia and arrest people over saying basically anything that isn’t propaganda, I don’t think he would find it very difficult to sell it to whoever he needs to sell it to. For others with access to worldwide media there’s no outcome where he can win anyway.
If he captures Mariupol he can claim he neutralized azov batallion. They are neo nazis. Mission accomplished.
If that tweet was true about them forcing out Ukrainians in that Eastern province and replacing them with Russians then by ‘liberating’ those two ‘Russian’ provinces to add to Crimea. Sham elections to follow.

Not having a puppet government in Kyiv would be a hard sell though.

But how would he be selling the west sanctioning Russia so harshly? I mean, even if Putin retreats immediately, I don't think there's a chance the west will lift the sanctions anytime soon.
He'd lose a lot of credibility in front of his people if he doesn't get Kiev, imo. He'll surely keep trying and eventually succeed, I fear. He knows he crossed too many lines already to simply pull out of this conflict at this stage.
 
They wouldn’t even know what’s going on Kyiv mate.

Actually some theories here that he doesn’t actually know what is going on there, that he’s bunkered up and only fed whatever his generals may want him to hear. Weird as feck but nothing about this whole thing is any different.

True but in the eyes of the rest of the world if he doesn’t come out of this controlling Ukraine in some way he’s going to look like a right balloon.
 
I think he realized nukes are not working because to use them and justify this in front of his group there would need to be direct military threat from anyone to Russia and the way NATO countries have played it so far has been largely brilliant. They’ve pushed him into the corner without using a single soldier. At this point nukes are gone and he seems to have realized that in his last two speeches.

Its simply a waiting game now.

One thing you can be sure about.
He will still be there.
And Ukraine is in the shits even when the Russians leave.

Going to take a long time to recover.
 
Well of course NATO is involved. The sanctions for one are a form of economic warfare.
Indeed, but they won't have a no fly zone for fear of shooting down Russian planes, yet are happy that NATO weapons are doing just that but in different hands.

I'm confused by the NATO stance if I'm honest!!
 
China are allies with Putin and Russia, China also has the worlds biggest army and to no surprise Putin is now threatening the rest of the EU.
 
But how would he be selling the west sanctioning Russia so harshly? I mean, even if Putin retreats immediately, I don't think there's a chance the west will lift the sanctions anytime soon.
He'd lose a lot of credibility in front of his people if he doesn't get Kiev, imo. He'll surely keep trying and eventually succeed, I fear. He knows he crossed too many lines already to simply pull out of this conflict at this stage.
I really can’t see how he succeeds now. Even if he somehow gets the better of Ukraine hasn’t got the ability to hold it. Russia are failing before our eyes
 
I think Putin will eventually give up on trying to capture Kiev, but settle instead for:

* Capturing Odessa and cutting Ukraine off entirely from any sea access. Then he will "control" the entire southern coastline
* Capturing the entire Donbas and Luhansk regions and declare them "independent" republics.

Then he will withdraw troops from other parts of Ukraine and attempt to sell the gains of land as a victory .

A period of stand-off lasting years along the new "borders" will then follow, with intermittent shelling (etc) of the kind that has been happening for years along the previous eastern "border".

The economic sanctions will remain in place for a long time and the Ukrainian forces will be armed and trained big-time by NATO troops.
 
Indeed, but they won't have a no fly zone for fear of shooting down Russian planes, yet are happy that NATO weapons are doing just that but in different hands.

I'm confused by the NATO stance if I'm honest!!

The NATO stance is to try whatever they can to stop Putin without giving him reason to escalate.
 
Indeed, but they won't have a no fly zone for fear of shooting down Russian planes, yet are happy that NATO weapons are doing just that but in different hands.

I'm confused by the NATO stance if I'm honest!!

It's not confusing at all. It's the cold war coming back. People have pointed out the stance a million times.
 
He already considers NATO countries to be in the war, so what is there to stop them? (And don’t say nukes ffs)
This is utterly naive. He says he considers NATO to be 'in the war' but his actions say otherwise.

If he thought NATO was party to the war (even if it's 'special operation'), he'd be attacking NATO member states and we all know how that'd go short of him using nukes.
 
I think Putin will eventually give up on trying to capture Kiev, but settle instead for:

* Capturing Odessa and cutting Ukraine off entirely from any sea access. Then he will "control" the entire southern coastline
* Capturing the entire Donbas and Luhansk regions and declare them "independent" republics.

Then he will withdraw troops from other parts of Ukraine and attempt to sell the gains of land as a victory .

A period of stand-off lasting years along the new "borders" will then follow, with intermittent shelling (etc) of the kind that has been happening for years along the previous eastern "border".

The economic sanctions will remain in place for a long time and the Ukrainian forces will be armed and trained big-time by NATO troops.
That’s what I fear and what would still be a complete disaster for Ukraine, even though many would think Ukraine has “won”.
 
He already considers NATO countries to be in the war, so what is there to stop them? (And don’t say nukes ffs)

He's also a a highly accomplished liar who is full of bluster. As long as there is no actual fighting between both NATO and Russia, both sides are incentivized to keep it as such.
 
I feel like starting a nuclear war is probably worse for the financial markets than the sanctions tbf.

If someone is stupid enough to start a nuclear war, the financial markets will be the last of your worries.
 
Indeed, but they won't have a no fly zone for fear of shooting down Russian planes, yet are happy that NATO weapons are doing just that but in different hands.

I'm confused by the NATO stance if I'm honest!!

Its to arm Ukraine with weapons and intelligence but avoid at all costs, a shooting war with Russia, all the while eroding Putin's power from within by bringing down the Russian economy.
 
If someone is stupid enough to start a nuclear war, the financial markets will be the last of your worries.
You just know that if the entire planet had the shit bombed out of it there would still be some little fecker in an ill fitting suit, with a Young Conservative badge on it, walking around with his side parted Sunday school hairdo, holding a British flag, telling everyone that the economy is still doing reeeeeaaallllyy well.
 
Its to arm Ukraine with weapons and intelligence but avoid at all costs, a shooting war with Russia, all the while eroding Putin's power from within by bringing down the Russian economy.

This invasion is about spheres of influence.
Putin/Russia is not going to just withdraw without NATO recognizing Russia's voice in the region going forward.
Sanctions alone wont cut it.