Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

You just know that if the entire planet had the shit bombed out of it there would still be some little fecker in an ill fitting suit, with a Young Conservative badge on it, walking around with his side parted Sunday school hairdo, holding a British flag, telling everyone that the economy is still doing reeeeeaaallllyy well.

Yep. For those who lack imagination / a soul, putting things in financial terms is basically the only way they understand until the bomb lands on their head.
 
I think Putin will eventually give up on trying to capture Kiev, but settle instead for:

* Capturing Odessa and cutting Ukraine off entirely from any sea access. Then he will "control" the entire southern coastline
* Capturing the entire Donbas and Luhansk regions and declare them "independent" republics.

Then he will withdraw troops from other parts of Ukraine and attempt to sell the gains of land as a victory .

A period of stand-off lasting years along the new "borders" will then follow, with intermittent shelling (etc) of the kind that has been happening for years along the previous eastern "border".

The economic sanctions will remain in place for a long time and the Ukrainian forces will be armed and trained big-time by NATO troops.
How is he going to spin this one? He keeps on telling Russians that they are there to help the people in East Ukraine and that he wants to "denazify" the government.

The only thing Putin will settle for - at the very least - is international recognition of the new republics and a pro-Russian government, but ideally deweaponization of newer NATO countries as well.
 
How is he going to spin this one? He keeps on telling Russians that they are there to help the people in East Ukraine and that he wants to "denazify" the government.

The only thing Putin will settle for - at the very least - is international recognition of the new republics and a pro-Russian government, but ideally deweaponization of newer NATO countries as well.
This is never going to happen. The opposite will be the case after his war.
 
Of course it won't happen. But that's what he wants.

A likelier scenario is he pulls out of Ukraine because its not going anywhere and he has to focus on alleviating internal pressure through sanctions relief.
 
I wouldn't be against NATO telling Russia that they will remove all sanctions as soon as the last Russian troop is out of Ukraine.

No. The World has him in a chokehold - it shouldn’t be eased until he’s removed.

He has wreaked havoc and suffering in the West and in Europe with his meddling in our politics and left our cultures divided and now this in Ukraine while simultaneously threatening Nuclear War ffs.

The World shouldn’t let go now until he’s removed.

We’ve waited years for this opportunity.
 
Well it took the US/UK 3 weeks to take Baghdad. It's the media that controls the narrative so they are playing it hard that Russia is struggling, the same media at that time weren't saying that the US/UK coalition were struggling (although I'm sure Iraqi state media was!).

You'd figure given how we're being told Russia is so shit at this war thing that the EU would be less fearful about attacking them. They might throw a nuclear bomb on themselves.

This is a massive fecking army, they'll take over eventually. The EU won't do anything, that's the sad reality, I just hope the Ukrainians don't let them sleep easy for the time they are there.

Truest post in here. Russia are struggling no more or no less than most invasions.
 
No. The World has him in a chokehold - it shouldn’t be eased until he’s removed.

He has wreaked havoc and suffering in the West and in Europe with his meddling in our politics and left our cultures divided and now this in Ukraine while simultaneously threatening Nuclear War ffs.

The World shouldn’t let go now until he’s removed.

We’ve waited years for this opportunity.

Fair enough I don't disagree with you however I still would love there to be peace sooner rather than later. The longer this conflict continues, everyone loses.
 
Truest post in here. Russia are struggling no more or no less than most invasions.
They are definitely struggling more than for example the US did in Iraq. Yes, they took longer to reach Bagdad, but that is simply a much longer distance, and they made sure that they had absolute control over everything, especially total dominance in the air. Russia seems to be incapable to establish anything similar.
 
They wouldn’t even know what’s going on Kyiv mate.

Just something further on this. On R4 they have a show called the Media Show which is basically a behind the scenes look at the workings of the media. This week they had a British journalist who specialises on Russia, a Ukrainian journalist and a Russian journalist, obviously all pro-western. They agreed that Russia had now become a totalitarian state in terms of the media. There's no longer any independent media so bar the web etc there's only the Kremlin narrative in the public domain. I wonder if there'll be any roll back on that after the conflict or if this is a new paradigm for Russia in this sense.

@harms what do you make of this?
 
Just something further on this. On R4 they have a show called the Media Show which is basically a behind the scenes look at the workings of the media. This week they had a British journalist who specialises on Russia, a Ukrainian journalist and a Russian journalist, obviously all pro-western. They agreed that Russia had now become a totalitarian state in terms of the media. There's no longer any independent media so bar the web etc there's only the Kremlin narrative in the public domain. I wonder if they'll be any roll back on that after the conflict or if this is a new paradigm for Russia in this sense.

@harms what do you make of this?
I very much doubt that any rollback would happen under Putin. Why would he give any amount of freedom back when he had already took it?
 
They are definitely struggling more than for example the US did in Iraq. Yes, they took longer to reach Bagdad, but that is simply a much longer distance, and they made sure that they had absolute control over everything, especially total dominance in the air. Russia seems to be incapable to establish anything similar.

Agreed. Kyiv is 55miles (90km) from the Belarus border and 125miles (200km) from the Russian border. America launched their attack into Iraq from Kuwait which is 280miles (450km) from the the Kuwait border.
 
Air superiority was established pretty much from the 1st day as well in the iraqi wars,
 
People saying in previous pages that Putin is planning to capture NATO Baltic states including Poland next. This is categorically impossible. He might want to, but he will never try.

Putin himself has said many times that he knows Russia can't beat NATO in a conventional war. The Russian army has no chance against European forces supplemented by the United States and Britain, who are better equipped, better trained and have superior firepower both in numbers and in technological advantage. Superior western air power would maintain air superiority from day-one, Russia is using predominantly older MiG and SU aircraft, some of which have been upgraded through the decades but are absolutely no match for the modern fighters of NATO countries with considerably better avionics systems and AA missiles.

We've seen how poorly Russia has done against Ukraine, with disorganised order of battle, poorly trained conscripts and constant supply chain issues. That's against Ukraine, a nation with a relatively small military that relies largely on old soviet hardware supplemented with some donated western tech. Russia vs Europe is a non-starter, Putin knows this and wouldn't try it. If he did, they'd lose so badly that Russia's military would take a generation to recover.

The only way Putin could make headway in Europe would be full-scale nuclear war, in which case, capturing Baltic states becomes irrelevant because the world is ending anyway.
 
People saying in previous pages that Putin is planning to capture NATO Baltic states including Poland next. This is categorically impossible. He might want to, but he will never try.

Putin himself has said many times that he knows Russia can't beat NATO in a conventional war. The Russian army is no match for European forces supplemented by the United States and Britain, who are better equipped, better trained and have superior firepower both in numbers and in technological advantage.

We've seen how poorly Russia has done against Ukraine, with disorganised order of battle, poorly trained conscripts and constant supply chain issues. That's against Ukraine, a nation with a relatively small military that relies largely on old soviet hardware supplemented with some donated western tech. Russia vs Europe is a non-starter, Putin knows this and wouldn't try it. If he did, they'd lose so badly that Russia's military would take a generation to recover.

The only way Putin could make headway in Europe would be full-scale nuclear war, in which case, capturing Baltic states becomes irrelevant because the world is ending anyway.
Georgia is more likely to be attacked next.
 
Georgia is more likely to be attacked next.

Possibly. Moldova will be looking over their shoulders too. Although I'm not sure if the Russian war machine will be able to afford multiple wars over the coming years, not just because of the losses in Ukraine but because of the crippling blows Russia's economy has taken. That said, capturing Georgia would likely be an easier task than Ukraine, who took steps to expand the size of their military after 2014.
 
I wonder what happens if the Americans start asking Israel "mate what the absolute feck?!"
I wonder what Israel's angle is here. I doubt they'd want a Jewish president to be killed by a hit squad and might lobby for Zelensky to stay alive.

On the other hand, they might fear that the Ukrainian resistance inspires the Palestinians to take up weapons again. Every country that has representatives visiting Putin has its own interests but in this case, I'm not quite sure what Israel wants to discuss.
 
Truest post in here. Russia are struggling no more or no less than most invasions.

Not comparable at all. Significant longer distance (Baghdad fell in about 3-4 days after they reached the city) from where they were deployed (Kuwait) than Kyiv is from the border to Belarus, US had air superiority from pretty much day 1 and the RU casualties is minimum 10x more than what the US suffered during the entire Iraqi war.

I think even the staunchest pro-Russian military analyst would admit that they are struggling heavily so far.
 
That’s not great…

A western ally talking to Putin can only be a good thing. Bennett is pragmatic and is actually a good intermediary. Israel ultimately sits with the west in terms of allegiance, but regarding Ukraine he's been largely neutral while still calling for peace - a bit like India thus far.
 
Maybe they're just doing what Macron's doing? Why is Israel talking to Putin weird? Why are people surprised? I know I'm missing something here...

I think this basically boils down to people disliking Israel because of the conflict with the Palestinians, and failing to understand that shades of grey are real, and Israel can actually be a good neutral intermediary where the Russia-Ukraine war is concerned.

TLDR: They think everything Israel does is bad.