Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Sarni]

You're obviously right, but you changed your tune quite a bit during this invasion

Yeah my anxiety has eased and I got time to listen to people who actually know their stuff and virtually none of them think there’s any real threat of full scale nuclear war (single attacks within Ukraine being possible nonetheless which is still tragic if it happens). I tend to not be rational when I am scared but I guess that is quite natural reaction.

 

[harms]

There's a courageous woman, a WW2 survivor, that comes to every protest now — they've arrested her twice now, I believe.

 

[Sir Matt]

Is this not a bad thing for the west in the long run?

If these networks are accepted in the West, it seems to be mostly through alliances with Visa, Mastercard, or Discover.

 

[Sir Matt]

There's a courageous woman, a WW2 survivor, that comes to every protest now — they've arrested her twice now, I believe.

I genuinely don't know how you look at a tiny old lady protesting and think, "yeah, I'm doing the right thing" when you arrest her. I guess at least they haven't beaten her so far like they do with younger people?

And in Kherson, they've started firing on the Ukrainian population for protesting.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

The second part shows how far you are from understanding the reality of Russian politics. And the first one is certainly not as clear cut as you seem to suggest.

You’re right, Harms, I don’t have a deep understanding of Russian politics, as is the case with most in the West.

My overall point is that I don’t think he’s going anywhere due a coup etc.

 

[GlastonSpur]

I genuinely don't know how you look at a tiny old lady protesting and think, "yeah, I'm doing the right thing" when you arrest her. I guess at least they haven't beaten her so far like they do with younger people?

And in Kherson, they've started firing on the Ukrainian population for protesting.

If they continue with that, they'll be inviting attacks on Russians troop from within the civilian population - I imagine a fair few of them have guns and explosives.

 

[BorisManUtd]

Parts of Belgrade sadly disagree with you.

I'm aware of that, it's sad to see it, some of the organisors of those pro-Russian protests are leaders of far right organisations but think many people that came geniunely believe they're there to support Russian people against Western propaganda that demonizes Russia (in their eyes).

Anyways, what's important for me is to see todays support for Ukraine from Belgrade + and Serbia as a country voting 'yes' to that UN resolution few days ago.

 

[choccy77]

The UK has a special brand of idiocy. Our extremists, of both left and right, are pathetic in comparison to those elsewhere.

Spoiler

This isn't the official Ukrainian Rally,

That got moved yesterday, because of this Anti War protest which is different and probably why Ukrainans were confused about the messages coming from who ever is running this thing.

Why on earth turn up in some massive truck ffs.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[hobbers]

If there's one thing the UK excels at it's having the most smelly and most uninformed protestors. On any issue from anti-war to anti-vax.

 

[Rightnr]

What a bunch of spineless cowards, yet it doesn't surprise me. I've seen those types all too much growing up.

I do wonder though, how far these policemen are willing to go? Are they all Putin yes men? At what point do they start asking questions? When it's their home that's in danger?

Or are they just an assembly of dumb and talentless people who, apart from toeing the Putin line, won't get anywhere in life.

 

[harms]

You’re right, Harms, I don’t have a deep understanding of Russian politics, as is the case with most in the West.

My overall point is that I don’t think he’s going anywhere due a coup etc.

He'll never step down himself — nor will he accept a change. There was a time when he obviously considered it but it was almost a decade ago. A coup is possible if general population reaches a certain level of disappointment which, seeing as our economy is in an unprecedented crisis, can happen at some point (a few months/years), threatening their entire existence. Not now though, sadly.

 

[TwoSheds]

If there's one thing the UK excels at it's having the most smelly and most uninformed protestors. On any issue from anti-war to anti-vax.

Smelly? Are we in primary school still?

 

[Raoul]

He'll never step down himself — nor will he accept a change. There was a time when he obviously considered it but it was almost a decade ago. A coup is possible if general population reaches a certain level of disappointment which, seeing as our economy is in an unprecedented crisis, can happen at some point (a few months/years), threatening their entire existence. Not now though, sadly.

Not sure about the viability of a coup at this time, but if he loses control of the population after sanctions begin to bite, things could go south very quickly imo.

 

[JPRouve]

The total absence of support still baffles me. I can't understand the rational behind it.

 

[harms]

I do wonder though, how far these policemen are willing to go? Are they all Putin yes men? At what point do they start asking questions? When it's their home that's in danger?

Or are they just an assembly of dumb and talentless people who, apart from toeing the Putin line, won't get anywhere in life.

Police in Russia tortures & sets up innocent people because they need to reach a certain number of solved cases to get their monthly bonus. So yeah, a lot of them are simply guys with no conscious who are used to solving any of their problems with violence — and the system is built in a way to encourage them in that behaviour.

 

[Beans]

What a bunch of spineless cowards, yet it doesn't surprise me. I've seen those types all too much growing up.

I do wonder though, how far these policemen are willing to go? Are they all Putin yes men? At what point do they start asking questions? When it's their home that's in danger?

Or are they just an assembly of dumb and talentless people who, apart from toeing the Putin line, won't get anywhere in life.

I've been thinking about how important flunkies are to tyrants. You can't surround yourself with capable people with ambition, they'll decide they don't need you.

However there are some capable people in the Russian Mafia, like Semion Mogilevich. One wonders how much influence he wields, and other top gangsters who are not well known like the Oligarchs are.

Mogilevich killed a guy who knew him just for speaking his name to a reporter, even though he didn't tell him anything but that he knew him, but couldn't say more because it was too dangerous.

His lawyer in the US was a former FBI Director. Totally normal phenomenon.

"William Sessions, former FBI Director from 1987 to 1993 during the Presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George H. W. Bush (41), was Mogilevich's attorney in the United States until Sessions' death on June 12, 2020.[18][19]"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semion_Mogilevich

 

[Rightnr]

Police in Russia tortures & sets up innocent people because they need to reach a certain number of solved cases to get their monthly bonus. So yeah, a lot of them are simply guys with no conscious who are used to solving any of their problems with violence — and the system is built in a way to encourage them in that behaviour.

It just makes my blood boil reading this and knowing there's so many decent people in Russia living with this bullshit.

Living without hope is one of those things that really can crush a person, so all the best to you and other brave people who stand up despite all of this.

 

[Raoul]

This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

 

[Raoul]

 

[11101]

And how many sons, husbands, wives, mothers and fathers would they have killed if they weren’t shot down? Sorry, but I have no sympathy for anyone who is part of an army invading a foreign country. It’s not like these pilots are the conscripts that are being forced out into the front lines either. They chose this career and trained in it, knowing what it might entail.

There are no two sides here. If every pilot chose to not be part of this invasion then will Putin order them all to be jailed and executed and then magically make more pilots appear out of nowhere? They are complicit in invading an innocent neighboring country who did nothing. At some point you have to be held accountable for your own actions and not just say you were just following orders.

That's a fair point and I'm not advocating they shouldn't be shot down, just that we shouldn't celebrate the death of the grunts from either side. These aren't the people calling the shots and having lived in China and Japan for a bit I've seen how seemingly normal, intelligent people can be so easily brainwashed into the party line when it's all they've ever known.

 

[JPRouve]

This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

To be fair Belarus are seen as Russia's accomplices and have been sanctioned. So it actually makes sense.

 

[Pintu]

 

[choccy77]

If there's one thing the UK excels at it's having the most smelly and most uninformed protestors. On any issue from anti-war to anti-vax.

Friday along Southbank in London there was an anti vax protest.

Was like 9 people and they had someone dressed as Boris and all these prop boxes of Vaccinations.

No-one gave a damn about them.

 

[do.ob]

Saying for a poll that you want to stop Russian gas imports is one thing, accepting the consequences is another matter entirely. A couple of days ago I saw someone from the liberal side, who put a Ukraine flag in his twitter name, blame the government for the increase in gas prices.

 

[Carolina Red]

Good thread on the issues the Russians are facing in the air

 

[Rightnr]

What a PoS thing to do, assuming he did it willingly because we've seen how that goes in China.

This is why saying sportspeople are innocent in all of this is also naive.
They'll be used every which way by the regime for propaganda.

 

[Sarni]

This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

To be fair I’m not in favor of Poland allowing them to use Polish airfields, especially with them being so close to my home.

 

[JPRouve]

What a PoS thing to do, assuming he did it willingly because we've seen how that goes in China.

This is why saying sportspeople are innocent in all of this is also naive.
They'll be used every which way by the regime for propaganda.

He is responsible for his own actions. It's wrong to take the actions of that person and translate it to others because several russian athletes also expressed their disagreement.

 

[Raoul]

To be fair I’m not in favor of Poland allowing them to use Polish airfields, especially with them being so close to my home.

That's quite understandable.

 

[Raoul]

To be fair Belarus are seen as Russia's accomplices and have been sanctioned. So it actually makes sense.

Sanctioned isn't the same as being militarily attacked. Belarus is little more than Russia's vassal state.

 

[Sarni]

That's quite understandable.

Our government has been very clear on not allowing them to use Polish airports, and have also been very clear that no jets have been offered yet and may never be. It seems to be pressure from Ukraine and maybe US.

 

[Beans]

This just in: Its cool to use Belarus to invade Ukraine, but not if other nations loan their airfields to Ukraine.

Sounds good, go ahead and attack Poland you beef-witted flax-wench!

 

[Raoul]

Our government has been very clear on not allowing them to use Polish airports, and have also been very clear that no jets have been offered yet and may never be. It seems to be pressure from Ukraine and maybe US.

At this point its unneeded since it appears the Russians are going backwards without much required assistance from neighboring countries. By this time a week from now, Putin's economy will be in severe pain which will eventually cause him to change his calculus imo.

 

[TMDaines]

Second United match since the invasion. Still the players can’t muster anything other than “peace” and “no war”. Genuinely pathetic.

 

[TMDaines]

This isn't the official Ukrainian Rally,

That got moved yesterday, because of this Anti War protest which is different and probably why Ukrainans were confused about the messages coming from who ever is running this thing.

Why on earth turn up in some massive truck ffs.

Yeah, the official one got moved down the road to Parliament Square.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.

 

[JPRouve]

Sanctioned isn't the same as being militarily attacked. Belarus is little more than Russia's vassal state.

The point is that Belarus are considered as having entered the war. That's the premise of the sanctions.

 

[Carolina Red]

I genuinely don't know how you look at a tiny old lady protesting and think, "yeah, I'm doing the right thing" when you arrest her. I guess at least they haven't beaten her so far like they do with younger people?

And in Kherson, they've started firing on the Ukrainian population for protesting.

Ways to make the insurgency worse. Chapter 1…

 

[Raoul]

Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.

The only viable result is Putin being forced into leaving Ukraine (but not Donbas or Crimea) because sanctions are risking a Russian revolution from within. That is the likeliest and more realistic scenario given that neither side are going to cede any concessions unless they absolutely have to. That means Putin obliterating Ukraine through unprecedented carpet bombing and indiscriminate attacks on all things Ukrainian (including civilians) to force a surrender - or, the scenario in my first sentence that forces Putin to withdraw or else risk being overthrown from within.