Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion







This is concerning. There've been theories/rumors about Russians using tactical nukes under the guise of Ukraine having nuclear weapons and using them.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
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Putin wants control or at least some say over what happens with the natural gas supply in the Crimean peninsula. Ukrainian control of that threatens Russia’s monopoly as a natural gas supplier for Europe (they currently provide 50% of Germany’s natural gas supply), and therefore the Russian economy.

I think that and the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO (therefore surrounding Belarus on three sides) are what drives him with this. That and the fact that he’s seemingly a bit unhinged.
 
Any updates following the latest conversation between macron and Putin today?
 
Sir Matt said:
The Russians' initial intent was to orchestrate some fast coup by sending in troops to Kyiv and carrying out precision strikes to knock out Ukraine's air defenses. They failed both of those completely. Their detachments sent into Kyiv early on were destroyed. Russia may have some control of the skies, particularly in Eastern Ukraine, but they don't have complete air dominance. If they did, they'd be using it across Ukraine. Since Ukrainian air defenses remain at least partially intact, Russia is highly restricted in where they can fly.

Russia has lost more materiel because it's an invading force against Ukrainians defending their homeland, their logistics suck, and most of their equipment is very dated. Additionally, their military planning and maintenance of said equipment seems to be deficient with all of the trucks getting stuck, breaking down, running out of fuel, etc. Lots of equipment losses by Russia are because their vehicles are stuck, abandoned, or isolated. The Ukrainians only need smaller groups who can move quickly, launch some Stingers/Javelins and move.

Based on reading tweets from actual military academics, there's doubt about whether Russia even has the forces to effectively encircle Kyiv, much less control the rest of Ukraine. Russia has committed 95% of their forces to Ukraine. There aren't hundreds of thousands more troops ready to deploy or equipment to support them. Videos from inside Russia show them moving ancient equipment from the far east, which doesn't bode well for their effectiveness if they are brought into service.
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I have seen this idea of Russian equipment being old and dated circulated around, but I don't understand how it's true. A lot of of the stuff you see on Twitter cannot be relied on, especially war reporting. We are on Ukraine's side and want to see Ukraine succeed in defense so there is a lot of bias in these reports. How can Russia not have enough forces/manpower to encircle Kyiv? That doesn't seem logical.

EDIT: to be clear, to me it seems like a way for the rest of the world to say "yeah! we're helping! Ukraine is winning!" without actually helping. There's a reason Zelensky is pleading every day.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Assuming that Russian losses continue to mount and Putin's stated objective of "regime" change remains out of reach, I'm trying to see a way out that both Kiev and Putin might eventually accept.

All I can come up with is:

* Kiev agrees to recognise Russian occupation of Crimea and formally cede it to Russia.
* Putin agrees to immediately withdraw all forces back into Crimea and Russia.
* Kiev agrees to cede either the Donbar or Luhansk regions (but not both) either to Russia or as an "independent" republic.
* Russia recognises the legitimacy of the Kiev government and Ukraine (with its new, reduced borders) as a sovereign state, independent of Russia.
* Kiev reserves the right to apply to join the EU and/or NATO, but agrees not to do so for at least 10 years.
* Russia formally acknowledges the above right, given the 10-year caveat.
* Kiev reserves the right to continue bringing in defensive weapons and receive military training from the West.
* Russia agrees that it if ever invades Ukraine again, it's claim to Crimea and Donbar/Luhansk becomes defunct.
* Discontinuation of Western sanctions are not part of the agreement.

That's a lot for both parties to swallow, but then it (a) stops all the killing; and (b) gives some "wins" for both.
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I think yesterday you also mentioned capturing Odessa and cutting Ukraine off entirely from any sea access. Perhaps at that point and with those areas under control, and as long as he is not able to take Kiev, he will be willing to negotiate and include those areas in his demands.
 
hobbers said:
If there's one thing the UK excels at it's having the most smelly and most uninformed protestors. On any issue from anti-war to anti-vax.
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I think it comes from the nationalistic brexit politics of the era. It doesn’t matter what the message is….as long as you make the most noise
 
TMDaines said:
Very grim scenes from Irpin:
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I think we're not allowed post that here.

On what I've seen, this is harrowing. I'm pretty sure a CNN reporter was at the same bridge Friday or Saturday.
 
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Kaush949 said:
Almost all cellphones in Russia are running on iOS or Android. Why can't the big tech be forced to do send out push notifications messages to russians with this kind of footage. The kremlin can only prevent this disabling internet all together.
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This would be like openly trying to interfere in Russian internal politics and I hope I don't have to explain to you what they leads to.
 
Rightnr said:
I think we're not allowed post that here.

On what I've seen, this is harrowing. I'm pretty sure CNN reporter was at the same bridge Friday or Saturday.
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Gonna start struggling to post links to anything if the Russians decide indiscriminate bombing in civilian areas is the approach. I assumed we were allowed to link to stuff.
 
TMDaines said:
Gonna start struggling to post links to anything if the Russians decide indiscriminate bombing in civilian areas is the approach. I assumed we were allowed to link to stuff.
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Then so be it. Let's not break forum rules. There is plenty to link to that don't have dead bodies.
 
shamans said:
I have seen this idea of Russian equipment being old and dated circulated around, but I don't understand how it's true. A lot of of the stuff you see on Twitter cannot be relied on, especially war reporting. We are on Ukraine's side and want to see Ukraine succeed in defense so there is a lot of bias in these reports. How can Russia not have enough forces/manpower to encircle Kyiv? That doesn't seem logical.

EDIT: to be clear, to me it seems like a way for the rest of the world to say "yeah! we're helping! Ukraine is winning!" without actually helping. There's a reason Zelensky is pleading every day.
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From actual military academics and professors re: the encirclement of Kyiv:












As for ancient equipment:









https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500213943012319252

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1500245892451950600


You seem to be under the impression that Russia has a fully modern, well-funded military. They may have a relatively small number of advanced planes, weapons, and vehicles, but they don't have lots of it. They also have to keep some in reserve for unforeseen events (like NATO invading :lol:). The US has 3000ish of M1A1 tanks in various iterations on active duty, but Russia only has about 500 of its most advanced T-90 tank and 550 active T-80 tanks (before losses in Ukraine).

Depending on the people you follow, Twitter can be a great resource for near real-time information on the war. There are groups like Bellingcat who are experts at locating, identifying, and analyzing images and videos from war zones. It has its limitations, but it's far more accurate than generalist military experts on TV.
 
Rightnr said:
This would be like openly trying to interfere in Russian internal politics and I hope I don't have to explain to you what they leads to.
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Well, maybe I'm being dumb, but what would it lead to? The Kremlin could hardly bomb Apple HQ.
 
VorZakone said:
Then so be it. Let's not break forum rules. There is plenty to link to that don't have dead bodies.
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I appreciate the spirit of the rules and would not have posted it, if I expected it would be deleted. It was a few minutes of footage that happened to show a few civilians laying where they died as part of the wider destruction of the area today. It was footage from an accredited news organisation and a Ukrainian public broadcaster.

I appreciate neither wanting overly morbid or gory content here, especially not embedded into the site as you read, but it seems to be a bit heavy handed if you are no longer allowed to link to tweets that contain this sort of video.
 
Some are beginning to reflect on their complicity in creating the monster:

 
TheReligion said:
All the clubs are doing the same aren’t they? Not sure what else you would want tbh
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No. The vast majority of clubs, if not all, have made direct reference to plight of the people of Ukraine. United just trot out vapid slogans.
 
Rightnr said:
Declaration of war?
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Russia has 80% or more of its military bogged down in Ukraine.

Good luck with taking on the vastly superior NATO forces.

Even Putin isn’t that daft, hence the steady stream of bullying threats. I’m at the point where I feel we should just push it a bit more.
 
TMDaines said:
No. The vast majority of clubs, if not all, have made direct reference to plight of the people of Ukraine. United just trot out vapid slogans.
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So every club in the league have been doing what exactly? I’m curious to know.

Have every other club dumped sponsorships and what not too? If I recall United were the first to do this and the first to even reference the war. Everyone else followed afterwards?

Don’t mind the club getting stick when deserved but doesn’t half feel like you’re just moaning for the sake of it. United conducts itself very well as highlighted by the Greenwood incident.
 
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