Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

sullydnl said:
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This is totally why Russia cut off the reactors they have control of from the outside world.

I guess if these Russian soldiers are happy to ruthlessly murder civilians they won't have any issues blowing up a nuclear plant and contaminating an area for years or causing lots of cancer.
 
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RedRonaldo said:
Depends how you see it. We are very close to nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis, literally one button away - the Soviet captain had ordered to fire the missile, Moscow and Soviet deputy political officer had authorised it, and its up to Soviet commander to press the button to launch it, but he is rational, kept his cool and did not press the button, and the rest is history.
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TBH I think this whole setup of sanctions is entirely of China and USA creation for the purpose of China taking a controlling stake in Russia and the removal of Putin either by force or by appointment.

The West will never control Putin or Russia but it’s entirely plausible that China is sick of a hostile and irrational dickhead neighbouring their largest border with the threat of nuclear war always one press conference away. China are many things but they’re not the same level of confrontation.

China keep North Korea on a leash and id imagine their plans are the same for Russia.
 
JamesB__ said:
I don’t understand this. If Ukrainian figures are to be believed then Russia have lost 10,000 troops, but that still leaves 190k. Why would they already be at the point of desperately needing more?
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Possibly because many are conscripts who are either unmotivated and/or incompetent at carrying out basic orders. As opposed to more battle hardened mercenaries such as Wagner and others from places like Syria.
 
mariachi-19 said:
TBH I think this whole setup of sanctions is entirely of China and USA creation for the purpose of China taking a controlling stake in Russia and the removal of Putin either by force or by appointment.

The West will never control Putin or Russia but it’s entirely plausible that China is sick of a hostile and irrational dickhead neighbouring their largest border with the threat of nuclear war always one press conference away. China are many things but they’re not the same level of confrontation.

China keep North Korea on a leash and id imagine their plans are the same for Russia.
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This is correct.

It's also worth remembering that a full scale war in Europe would be very bad for China, they rely heavily on exports to the western world.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
This is correct.

It's also worth remembering that a full scale war in Europe would be very bad for China, they rely heavily on exports to the western world.
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Plus they have nearly $400billion worth of investment in Europe. No point in having a (multi-trillion $$) road & belt initiative when the end of that road is in ruins.
 
This discussion was a very good listen, arguably the two foremost experts on Russian military in the US. I have been following both Rob Lee and Michael Kofman for the last few months and interestingly this is the first time I've seen both (especially the latter) state that they don't see Putin achieving his political objectives now:

 


The Biden Administration also has people visiting Venezuela to try to mend some relations and potentially find alternative oil to replace Russian oil.

There could be additional capacity in the US, but several fracking industry heads have suggested that their shareholders won't let them expand production or build new wells because they'd rather reap the profits for $150-200/barrel oil.

Can't wait til all the Republicans pushing for this start attacking Democrats for high gas prices.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
This is correct.

It's also worth remembering that a full scale war in Europe would be very bad for China, they rely heavily on exports to the western world.
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Dont get me wrong China do some awful shit, but they’re not looking for a fight.

Putin really represents the last of these global “strongmen” who are hell bent on world domination and believe real war still exists.

It will be his downfall but it’s what appeals to his base.
 
sglowrider said:
Is the Moscow Stock Exchange supposed to open today?
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Closed until at least the 9th apparently. Can't see them ever opening it at this point since the fall will be even more spectacular than if they opened it last Monday.
 
Raoul said:
Closed until at least the 9th apparently. Can't see them ever opening it at this point since the fall will be even more spectacular than if they opened it last Monday.
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Was supposed to have re-opened on the 5th and now the 9th? Wow!!
 
The video on this page is a good explanation of how Putin doesn't have the resources to stablize the Ruble.

 
Raoul said:
Closed until at least the 9th apparently. Can't see them ever opening it at this point since the fall will be even more spectacular than if they opened it last Monday.
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I wonder if the Moscow Exchange has circuit breaker stops. I sincerely hope not.
 
Cee90 said:
Is it complete fantasy on my end to think that it would be somehow possible to hack mainstream media channels / broadcasts with clips of the atrocities taking place in Ukraine?

I imagine a lot of the older generation will rely on the TV to get their news, so they need to somehow know the reality of what’s going on.

Putins propaganda machine must be stopped.

I am also curious in terms of roughly what % of the Russian public support Putin and his actions? I guess we won’t know because anyone who protests will be reprimanded.
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sglowrider said:
Wait? Putin is a double-agent / freedom-fight? Or just a case of self-loathing?

He is fighting the Nazis in Ukraine whilst being a nazi himself?
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I wouldn’t call him a Nazi per se. A fascist for sure. But Nazi do thrive under fascism. And yeah, when you look at how Putin describes atrocities that happen in Ukraine you get a strange feeling that he’s describing something that he had seen from out of his window (although it’s unlikely that he has any in his bunker).
 
Eurotrash said:
Don't really know how these things work, but there must be some serious cost/penalty associated with keeping the exchange closed?
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"Faith" is important in a stock market. If it is closed for 7 days, it means that all the people who have money there (billions) do not have access to their money. Obviously, whenever they open, any sane person would want to get his money out of there. Basically, Putin has killed the Russian stock market for many years in the future. (Perhaps that's okay in his mind. Did the USSR have a Stock Market? Ha! )
 
harms said:
I wouldn’t call him a Nazi per se. A fascist for sure. But Nazi do thrive under fascism. And yeah, when you look at how Putin describes atrocities that happen in Ukraine you get a strange feeling that he’s describing something that he had seen from out of his window (although it’s unlikely that he has any in his bunker).
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I am curious: Does Putin use any socialist rhetoric when he talks to the Russians? I know that in practice whatever he says means nothing, he is most of all a Mafia Boss. However, I am curious what impression he gives in his speeches regarding the economy, not right now, I mean in the past 2 or 5 years. Would the average Russian think he is a capitalist? a socialist? a communist? what?
 
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frostbite said:
I am curious: Does Putin have any socialist rhetoric when he talks to the Russians? I know that in practice whatever he says means nothing, he is most of all a Mafia Boss. However, I am curious about what impression he gives in his speeches, not right now, I mean in the past 2 or 5 years. Would the average Russian think he is a capitalist? a socialist? a communist? what?
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No one in their right mind would think of him as a socialist of any kind. Those who like him would not call him a fascist even though it’s the most appropriate technical term — but they’ll probably agree with a conservative authoritarian leader.

He doesn’t have an ideology that defines him. His goal is to accumulate as much power and wealth as possible & everything else is secondary. It’s easier to have an outside force as an existential threat to Russia, so he antagonizes the West. Liberal ideas potentially strip him of his power, so he turns back to conservative ideals & rigid structures of the past. Etc.
 
harms said:
No one in their right mind would think of him as a socialist of any kind. Those who like him would not call him a fascist even though it’s the most appropriate technical term — but they’ll probably agree with a conservative authoritarian leader.

He doesn’t have an ideology that defines him. His goal is to accumulate as much power and wealth as possible & everything else is secondary. It’s easier to have an outside force as an existential threat to Russia, so he antagonizes the West. Liberal ideas potentially strip him of his power, so he turns back to conservative ideals & rigid structures of the past. Etc.
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I see. Fatherland, family, history, heroes, traditions, etc.
 
Interesting listening to the former PM Gordon Brown calling for a Nuremberg type War Crimes to be immediately set up for Putin.
While it may initially seem a bit far fetched, it is definitely something which should be done.
He outlines the process by which it could be set up without Putin being there. And if found guilty of war crimes, Putin and those associated with his actions could be arrested.

He rightly says that it will send a very strong message to him and his supporters that they are going to be held to account for their actions and that he will become even more isolated as they desert him.
 
harms said:
No one in their right mind would think of him as a socialist of any kind. Those who like him would not call him a fascist even though it’s the most appropriate technical term — but they’ll probably agree with a conservative authoritarian leader.

He doesn’t have an ideology that defines him. His goal is to accumulate as much power and wealth as possible & everything else is secondary. It’s easier to have an outside force as an existential threat to Russia, so he antagonizes the West. Liberal ideas potentially strip him of his power, so he turns back to conservative ideals & rigid structures of the past. Etc.
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This is why I do not really understand why there hasn't been more backlash against him and his oligarch cronies over the past 20 years - what rightfully belongs to the Russian people (wealth in resources) has been continuously stolen from under their noses, yet only really Navalny comes to mind when it comes to protesting/opposing him. My point here is, I think, that if that wasn't enough to sow discontent among the people enough to topple the regime, why would it be so now (or in a few months when the sanctions and losses of servicemen explode)? It seems to me like too many are accepting of Putin and everything he does. Why would that now change?
 
RedRonaldo said:
Well they could set a great firewall like the China does. It would help promote their propaganda to brainwash their people for sure.

You know in the eyes of billions of Chinese people, it is the Western propaganda (those we feed into everyday) which is evil. No kidding, majority of Chinese people there are in support of the Russian, and thinks NATO is the cause of the whole Ukraine war mess, while war crimes against civilians are mostly committed by Ukraine soldiers (Neo-Nazi) in order to gain global support. So it works for them, no matter how twisted it sounds to us.
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That's not what I've heard from my Chinese contacts at all. It's more a case of Ukraine being seeing as a victim of the fight between US and Russia with a heavy spin on the US agenda naturally.

You can't post anti Russia content but they've been censoring pro Russia content as well. Enforced neutrality but blame the US as much as you want.
 
Dans said:
This is why I do not really understand why there hasn't been more backlash against him and his oligarch cronies over the past 20 years - what rightfully belongs to the Russian people (wealth in resources) has been continuously stolen from under their noses, yet only really Navalny comes to mind when it comes to protesting/opposing him. My point here is, I think, that if that wasn't enough to sow discontent among the people enough to topple the regime, why would it be so now (or in a few months when the sanctions and losses of servicemen explode)? It seems to me like too many are accepting of Putin and everything he does. Why would that now change?
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Because in the active phase of accumulating resources he was lucky to have a prolonged period of high oil & gas prices — by sending some of the profits to people he was able to gain a lot of popular vote (there were many reasons but it's one of them). People that lived in USSR and then barely survived throughout the desperately poor 90's were happy to receive anything at all.

At this rate we're going back to the 90's (if not lower) economically — after living 20 years in relative comfort. So yeah, it can lead to some potential uprising.
 
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