Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Eurotrash said:
The point is, for Russia to stop, Putin must get something that he can sell as a "win" so that he doesn't lose face. Crimea could be that.

The fact that they want to start to negotiate is a sign that the costs are becoming unbearable.
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Yes, but if they can't come to a reasonable position and the costs escalate each day for them more than they do for Ukraine then there's no need to rush to a deal. Agree on Crimea but should be under the conditions that @Revan proposed, a referendum under UN/outside supervision. Then for Donetsk and Luhansk I think Ukraine's position should be that they retain sovereignty over those territories but with levels of autonomy afforded to them.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
I'd take that deal tbh
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Why?? It's a terrible deal. Russia gets everything they wanted and Ukraine nothing. It's basically capitulation. Considering how the war is going, I'd bet Ukrainians feel fairly confident about defending from Russians. If I were Ukrainian, the only thing negotiable in that deal is Crimea.
 
Eurotrash said:
The point is, for Russia to stop, Putin must get something that he can sell as a "win" so that he doesn't lose face. Crimea could be that.

The fact that they want to start to negotiate is a sign that the costs are becoming unbearable.
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Ukraine is a democracy, the President can't just give away regions. But he can offer a referendum for Crimea, which would likely go Russia's way. Luhansk and Donetsk would be more tetchy, maybe semi-independence can be offered via constitutional change.

However the "blocs" thing is a no-go. Ukraine as a country must retain the right to join EU at the very least, if not NATO too. Otherwise there's no one guaranteeing their safety. Russian safety guarantees are not worth the paper they're written on.
 
Eurotrash said:
The point is, for Russia to stop, Putin must get something that he can sell as a "win" so that he doesn't lose face. Crimea could be that.

The fact that they want to start to negotiate is a sign that the costs are becoming unbearable.
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No way Crimea satisfies Putin. He'd want the entire coastline.
 
MadMike said:
Ukraine is a democracy, the President can't just give away regions. But he can offer a referendum for Crimea, which would likely go Russia's way. Luhansk and Donetsk would be more tetchy, maybe semi-independence can be offered via constitutional change.

However the "blocs" thing is a no-go. Ukraine as a country must retain the right to join EU at the very least, if not NATO too. Otherwise there's no one guaranteeing their safety. Russian safety guarantees are not worth the paper they're written on.
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Unfortunately it looks like EU won’t be offering them membership anytime soon. (I Hope I am wrong)

It’s looking increasingly like they will have to defeat Putin militarily, no matter the costs or the timeline, in order to get their true independence.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
The PM part has been debunked (or dropped) and the other two points are absolutely reasonable. If they don't accept that, and continue a war of attrition, then they are prolonging suffering for no good reason (if you assume that the deal is legitimate as ABC/NBC have reported). In the best case scenario, or close to it, the war ends with a settlement that looks like that. To throw that away now is insane.



According to "just war theory", the person refusing that is (at least rhetorically) criminal (in their stupidity).
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That's reasonable I guess if it means stopping the war and at not destroy all big East cities resulting in many civilian casualties...
 
MadMike said:
That's not in their current demands as per Kremlin spokesman though.
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It’s never been an official demand. But you can read it between the lines of Putin’s invasion speech. And you can see the strategy. They (Putin and his regime) want the entire coastal area between Crimea and Russia.
 
Jotun said:
Why?? It's a terrible deal. Russia gets everything they wanted and Ukraine nothing. It's basically capitulation. Considering how the war is going, I'd bet Ukrainians feel fairly confident about defending from Russians. If I were Ukrainian, the only thing negotiable in that deal is Crimea.
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Considering how the war is going? You mean the thousands of deaths, before Russia have even started using their full arsenal? I don't think they feel confident at all, I think they feel proud. And willing. They know Russia will eventually take the capital, and/or up the ante in regards to what kinds of weapons are in play. Ukraine won't back down, but I don't think that's because they're confident about their defense at all.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
Considering how the war is going? You mean the thousands of deaths, before Russia have even started using their full arsenal? I don't think they feel confident at all, I think they feel proud. And willing. They know Russia will eventually take the capital, and/or up the ante in regards to what kinds of weapons are in play. Ukraine won't back down, but I don't think that's because they're confident about their defense at all.
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I’d argue otherwise. It seems their plan is working perfectly. From day one the idea floated around was for them to frustrate Russia and stretch it out so the cost became unmanageable. Even if Russia takes Kiev so what? The war isn’t over and they don’t have the troops to keep what they have. It honestly looks as if the long term game theory into seeing Ukraine survive is not to give up anything
 
VorZakone said:
But Crimeans and those in the separatist regions don't want to live under Ukrainian rule, if I'm not mistaken? It is what it is...
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Nobody asked them anything.

Crimeans had a bogus referendum. But most likely, they'd prefer being in Russia, although who knows after sanctions really hit home. LNR and DNR didn't have even a bogus referendum if I recall, just basically imported Russian soldiers and started fighting against Kiev.

Ukraine might cede Crimea, but DNR and LNR considering they were controlling most of the regions in the conflict? Never. The war will drag on, Russian positions will get worse and worse. Logistics harder and harder. If I'm Ukrainian my counter offers is: Russia completely withdraws, cedes Crimea and recognizes LNR and DNR as Ukrainian territory and Putin resigns.

As a bystander, I'm now leaning more towards Ukraine achieving its goals via war rather than Russia. Of course, the cost would be huge.
 
It is better for Ukraine and all of us if Putin loses this war, though the cost may be great.
 
Are Russia, China and India playing the game that they have the populations to survive a nuclear war? Russia with its space and China and India with vast, vast populations?

Western powers are based around centralised cities, does that make them easy targets?
 
Eurotrash said:
The point is, for Russia to stop, Putin must get something that he can sell as a "win" so that he doesn't lose face. Crimea could be that.

The fact that they want to start to negotiate is a sign that the costs are becoming unbearable.
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And how does the West sell a 'win' if it as much gives a Ukrainian telephone box to Putin? The sanctions are have neither deterred or halted Putin who has us over a barrel. 700,000 of those everyday bought and paid for by Biden.

Whatever happens now means backing down in some way or else thousands more will needlessly die.
 
Peter van der Gea said:
Are Russia, China and India playing the game that they have the populations to survive a nuclear war? Russia with its space and China and India with vast, vast populations?

Western powers are based around centralised cities, does that make them easy targets?
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No rational leader would play that game, because the leaders are some of the people most intensely targeted by nuclear strikes, so they're unlikely to survive themselves. Also I would rate the US' survivability at least the same as Russia's.
 
Jotun said:
If I'm Ukrainian my counter offers is: Russia completely withdraws, cedes Crimea and recognizes LNR and DNR as Ukrainian territory and Putin resigns.
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If you're gonna propose completely unrealistic scenarios during negotiations, you might as well not show up at all.
 
cyberman said:
I’d argue otherwise. It seems their plan is working perfectly. From day one the idea floated around was for them to frustrate Russia and stretch it out so the cost became unmanageable. Even if Russia takes Kiev so what? The war isn’t over and they don’t have the troops to keep what they have. It honestly looks as if the long term game theory into seeing Ukraine survive is not to give up anything
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Oh, I agree they see their plan is working so far. But what happens when/if Putin ups the ante, and starts throwing more and more powerful weapons in their direction? Will they remain confident (still not sure about this phrase) if Kyiv/other major cities starts to look like Aleppo? When the death toll has an extra 0 or two? I'm not so sure.
 
Peter van der Gea said:
Are Russia, China and India playing the game that they have the populations to survive a nuclear war? Russia with its space and China and India with vast, vast populations?

Western powers are based around centralised cities, does that make them easy targets?
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I don’t like entertaining these apocalyptic scenarios but the NATO (read the US) has enough nukes to make Russia pay no matter what geography and demographics might have you beleive.
 
Pintu said:
It’s never been an official demand. But you can read it between the lines of Putin’s invasion speech. And you can see the strategy. They (Putin and his regime) want the entire coastal area between Crimea and Russia.
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It's not just about what they want. It's about what they're willing to settle for to end the war. Pretty sure they'd happily swallow all of Ukraine if they had capitulated in the first 2-3 days. That's what Putin's speech on the eve of the war was alluding to.
 
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Skåre Willoch said:
Oh, I agree they see their plan is working so far. But what happens when/if Putin ups the ante, and starts throwing more and more powerful weapons in their direction? Will they remain confident (still not sure about this phrase) if Kyiv/other major cities starts to look like Aleppo? When the death toll has an extra 0 or two? I'm not so sure.
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That’s what they’re fighting for though? They made the decision to fight weeks ago, they can’t go back on it now or it’s been all for nothing.
 
Enigma_87 said:
That's reasonable I guess if it means stopping the war and at not destroy all big East cities resulting in many civilian casualties...
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There's no demand that is reasonable if the security guarantees are provided solely by the aggressor (Russia). Inclusion in blocs will be a red line for Kyiv, someone has to guarantee their security.

Enigma_87 said:
It might not be the official demands though. We've heard many mixed statements in terms of end goal from them.
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It's the Moscow reporter for ABC News quoting the Kremlin spokesperson. You think he's lying?
 
Skåre Willoch said:
Oh, I agree they see their plan is working so far. But what happens when/if Putin ups the ante, and starts throwing more and more powerful weapons in their direction? Will they remain confident (still not sure about this phrase) if Kyiv/other major cities starts to look like Aleppo? When the death toll has an extra 0 or two? I'm not so sure.
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It's not certain though. I'm not saying I have insight into this, but as anything else munitions are limited in quantity and ability to produce. Whatever Russia has in stockpile and whatever it has scheduled to be produced over coming months, it has to balance the opportunities to use them in Ukraine with their other defense priorities that include defense of their other borders.
 
cyberman said:
That’s what they’re fighting for though? They made the decision to fight weeks ago, they can’t go back on it now or it’s been all for nothing.
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For sure. And that's where the pride and willingness come into play, rather than confidence. And I do think that pride and willingness will fade a lot with a massive increase in destruction and death.

I'd fight the world to save my loved ones, but I definitely wouldn't feel confident about it.
 


Expect more of this. The hate towards Russia is spreading. And it is not a good thing.
 
MTF said:
It's not certain though. I'm not saying I have insight into this, but as anything else munitions are limited in quantity and ability to produce. Whatever Russia has in stockpile and whatever it has scheduled to be produced over coming months, it has to balance the opportunities to use them in Ukraine with their other defense priorities that include defense of their other borders.
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But do you think Putin will give up if he runs low on ammo, or do you think he'll switch to more effective/brutal weapons and escalate further?
I think Putin is as likely to back down as Ukraine are. If/when he is forced to make some changes for financial/logistical reasons, I don't think those changes will be in the direction of backing down. I think it will be in the direction of ramping up the pressure.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
Considering how the war is going? You mean the thousands of deaths, before Russia have even started using their full arsenal? I don't think they feel confident at all, I think they feel proud. And willing. They know Russia will eventually take the capital, and/or up the ante in regards to what kinds of weapons are in play. Ukraine won't back down, but I don't think that's because they're confident about their defense at all.
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Russia take capital??? Maybe, but I consider it unlikely. Sarajevo was sieged for almost four years. If there are supplies coming in the city, it can defend almost indefinitely. Plus Kiev is HUUGE. Encircling it would be very hard, taking even harder. Even then, breaches of encirclement to provide supplies are possible. Note, that as the war goes on, Ukrainian manpower will grow. They are in full mobilization, but it takes time. Foreign fighter will keep coming.

Russian manpower will get worse and they can not enter total war and full mobilization (which is what Ukraine will be doing), as it would cause unrest in the country. As the Russian army is bogged down in Ukraine, they will have to divert resources. If they withdraw from Syria, Assad might fall. They need to keep resource in the country to prevent unrest and rebellion. As economy collapses, you can bet that Dagestan and Tatarstan will have ideas about independence, Chechens likely too. Who knows who else. If the war keeps long enough, Russia might end up losing their own territory.

Also while Russian economy and war effort collapses under these sanctions, Ukraine will be propped by the west. Putin is right in one thing, these sanctions are a declaration of war. He isn't fighting just Ukraine, he is fighting whole western world. Ukraine is just a proxy. Unless China bails him out (which I don't see as they will want to stay neutral) he can't keep this up. He needs to finish this and quickly. But I don't see how.

Unfortunately, war toll will be heavy on all of us and it will fall hardest on Ukraine.
 
Fearless said:
Crimea, LNR and DNR with NATO keeping it's nose out.
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Agreed, followed by a further incursion into Ukraine in 7 or 8 years time to take more of the country as NATO still can't be involved. If they agreed to those terms, Ukraine would actually be in a worse position compared to now as not joining NATO would be written into their constitution.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
Oh, I agree they see their plan is working so far. But what happens when/if Putin ups the ante, and starts throwing more and more powerful weapons in their direction? Will they remain confident (still not sure about this phrase) if Kyiv/other major cities starts to look like Aleppo? When the death toll has an extra 0 or two? I'm not so sure.
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Yeh confident might not be the right word, but these people will never capitulate, even if Putin 'ups the ante'.

However, we might actually already be seeing the full extent of Russia's current military power, and it is dwindling by the day.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
Considering how the war is going? You mean the thousands of deaths, before Russia have even started using their full arsenal? I don't think they feel confident at all, I think they feel proud. And willing. They know Russia will eventually take the capital, and/or up the ante in regards to what kinds of weapons are in play. Ukraine won't back down, but I don't think that's because they're confident about their defense at all.
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I am pretty sure the Russians can take most of the Ukrainian cities. The question is whether the russiana can hold the cities.
They will fail as they will need more like 500,000 russian troops to hold the major cities and part of the country. Otherwise Russian bodybags will be the tool that drowns the Russians .
 
Skåre Willoch said:
But do you think Putin will give up if he runs low on ammo, or do you think he'll switch to more effective/brutal weapons and escalate further?
I think Putin is as likely to back down as Ukraine are. If/when he is forced to make some changes for financial/logistical reasons, I don't think those changes will be in the direction of backing down. I think it will be in the direction of ramping up the pressure.
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But will he be able to do that? They don't appear to be able to resupply their front line, most usable roads are more or less blocked by stuck Russian convoys and the Ukrainian air defense is still working. It is a recipe for disaster for the Russians, the longer this takes, the more ressources they'll lose.
 
Eurotrash said:
The point is, for Russia to stop, Putin must get something that he can sell as a "win" so that he doesn't lose face. Crimea could be that.

The fact that they want to start to negotiate is a sign that the costs are becoming unbearable.
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In some countries not throwing your people into the meat grinder might be seen as a win. Although when that meat grinder is entirely of your own making that may change things.
 
Skåre Willoch said:
But do you think Putin will give up if he runs low on ammo, or do you think he'll switch to more effective/brutal weapons and escalate further?
I think Putin is as likely to back down as Ukraine are. If/when he is forced to make some changes for financial/logistical reasons, I don't think those changes will be in the direction of backing down. I think it will be in the direction of ramping up the pressure.
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What more effective weapons though? The strategic bombers that can carry more payload but are needed in case they want to do any long-range strikes against NATO or China in a potential conflict? Cluster munitions that are devastating to cities, but whose ideal target are concentrations of enemy military formations? Again, I don't know if it is the case or what they have or don't have in reserve, I just mean that it's wrong to assume that they necessarily have a lot more available and that they're willing to use in this instance.
 
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