That the Ukrainians are not currently using their own planes to the maximum extent possible, probably because the Russians have deployed S400 SAMs within Ukrainian territory, which can easily shoot down most planes. The Ukrainian advantage is not in the skies, but rather one of a well organized and equipped counter-insurgency, which is why things like Stingers, Javelins, Drones, and similar technologies are preferable to planes.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
That the Ukrainians are not currently using their own planes to the maximum extent possible, probably because the Russians have deployed S400 SAMs within Ukrainian territory, which can easily shoot down most planes. The Ukrainian advantage is not in the skies, but rather one of a well organized and equipped counter-insurgency, which is why things like Stingers, Javelins, Drones, and similar technologies are preferable to planes.
Thanks. It makes sense.
In a war between nato and russia we would see russia bombing nato territory and nato wouldn't cross or attack the russian border? It doesn't seem reasonable.
And NATO would have to try to neutralize strategic facilities. In fact I would bet that NATO would be the first to heavily target Russia.
What makes you think that?
The only time article 5 has been invoked was after 9/11. The response was in Afghanistan itself, not just strengthening the security around US Territory. So with that precedent I believe if Russia attacked NATO territory they would defend their borders and also neutralise at source. Otherwise the waves just keep coming. So in defence I reckon they will have to attack Russian military bases.
You realise big chunks of Ukraine have been occupied by Russia since 2014, years before Zelenskyy was ever involved in politics? He was also by far the most concillatory presidential candidate between Russia and Europe in the last elections, but Putin has had no interest in ever dealing with him.
What’s your alternative history since Zelenskyy came to power where Ukraine would have got its territorial integrity returned whilst maintaining its sovereignty?
I think it’s just obvious, it doesn’t act as one entity, too many different motives, I mean look at the gas situation with Germany and Italy’s designer exports in the sanctions. NATO means Fk all when it comes down to the crunch.
Each country looks after their own and we will see it if it gets bad, I hope it doesn’t.
Sanctions and NATO are entirely unrelated
While I agree with you that it's probably best to not completely trust NATO 100%, I think you're confusing the EU with NATO. They are two separate entities.
Yes, whilst I agree I may have done, I do not think for one minute it’s completely unrelated at all, most EU countries are in NATO, the lines are most definitely blurred.
21 member states are both EU and NATO, let’s not be pedantic.
I wouldn't know whats more risky, a NATO no fly zone, or Anonymous hacking Kremlin TV and just broadcasting this image.
I believe Article 5 will be truly tested in an unprecedented way in the direct threat of a nuclear war. At that point, anything goes.
I trust NATO 99%. They are probably unbeatable in any form of conventional war.
But that 1% of doubt comes when Putin has his missile silos activated and aimed at Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and Madrid.
Exactly, they need to think like this now before it gets worse.
Definitely not returned. Crimea would be absolutely non negotiable for Putin. But what about some other concessions like completely giving up NATO ambition. Sometimes you need to step back to move forward. I believe that was the main thing that pushed Putin over the edge, the absolute red line leading to the full scale invasion. But I could be wrong. Mad Putin may have invaded anyway to expand his territory regardless. It's all speculation of course but I believe with hindsight he would play his cards differently. Knowing that Russia was serious about the attack (up to a few days before the invasion he was still down playing it) , how the west would only offer support from a safe distance and the fact he may still have to meet up with all of Russias demands after so many civilian deaths.
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I don't see why this would appear out of the norm. They are obviously supporting the government, which is why its being done in the open. What would be strange was if anti-Government protests broke out at the same mall.
Dude. The USA is NATO's key player and is not in the EU. There's a huge difference.
Mate really, step away from your keyboard for the night.
First you said Russia was communist, then you said differentiating the EU and NATO is being pedantic. You also got rinsed when you said not risking thermonuclear global armageddon is cowardly.
Seriously, take a break.
So NATO is weak and useless because some member states didn't act as one when imposing economic sanctions?
This sort of "are they being forced???" propaganda does nothing but make any self doubting Russians trust their own government more. Sometimes I am not sure if people are dumb enough to think every Russian is a drone or want to convince themselves of the situation.
There were (still are?) many rednecks who went America feck yeah when they invaded Iraq. No one was forced. It's just ultra nationalists supporting their government.
Putin doesn't give a shit about NATO, it's just a convenient excuse to attack and destroy Ukraine. We'll see how much of a threat he considers NATO if he decides to actually attack a NATO country. Ultimately, he doesn't want a fully democratic country with a large Russian speaking minority that looks to the West for trade and guidance right on his border. It's been well publicised how close the two countries are, you've basically got family members shooting each other. All those people in Rostov who get to hear how free and prosperous their Ukrainian cousins are... why don't they have that in Russia?
Ever since Ukraine overthrew his puppet in 2014 he's been looking to take them down. If COVID hadn't have happened I imagine this could well have happened sooner or maybe he needed to turn his countries attention to this battle to put aside the absolute shit show of a covid response. Either way, Ukraine represents Putin's biggest fear and that's a democratic Russia not voting him and his chosen interests into power.
The maniac won't stop until he physically cannot go on. I'm not a fan of sanctions as a means for regime change, but these set of sanctions certainly look like they'll squeeze Russia's ability to project its power. Here's hoping.
To put it bluntly, there is a huge difference between the EU and NATO, for the simple reason that the US is in the latter. You can't confuse EU hesitancy with an unwillingness to adhere to article 5. Biden has already come out and said that he would defend every inch of NATO territory and there is huge bipartisan support on this issue, something I haven't seen in a generation to be frank. Like I said before, the US doesn't sit around and have intellectual debates if they themselves are attacked or territory that they see as within their treaty obligations, they deploy the military immediately. And the US is far and away the most important military contributor to NATO, so the US fighting on your side is essentially NATO fighting on your side.
A person would be mistaken to think that Germany, a country who wants to keep the gas flowing from Russia, would be able to stand in the way of US fulfilling article 5 commitments if a wider war in Europe started. Unless of course they tell the US to leave Ramstein which would destroy any relationship they have with the US. I don't think Germany would take such a step based on how Scholz recently came running to Washington begging for Biden to pat him on the back to counter the bad press he was getting. These military considerations are separate from sanctions, which do require a lot more coordination from many nations for them to be effective.
NATO is not the EU.
Let's be clear: a full-scale nuclear war would wipe out all sentient life on earth - permanently. The survivors would mainly consist of bacteria and viruses. Anyone who throws out accusations of cowardice are quite simply far out of touch with this reality.
However terribly the people of Ukraine suffer, it's still better than the total extinction risked if NATO directly intervenes, because Putin, rather than accept defeat by NATO in Ukraine, would very likely escalate to tactical nukes. Once that happens, with NATO in direct combat with Russians, the downward spiral is all too predictable.
This is a hard truth.
We’ll it kind of looks like shitty propaganda that would come from the Kremlin or maybe Russian teens are just really uncool.
I bet there are uncool teens just like uncool teens who cheered on war on our side.
The US has immense influence in the world because of their economical and military strength, and because of its perception as the world’s main superpower (and their ability to project strength).
While the US might not particularly care about Latvia, abandoning Article 5 would mean the end of NATO, and the end of the perception of the US as the main superpower. Soon, other less peripherical countries would follow, as would Taiwan from China and the US would completely lose their global influence.
So, I think there is no way that the US, as long as they are in NATO, would allow a NATO member to fall. I also think that because the Ukraine adventure has been quite ugly, Putin would not attack a NATO member.
For what is worth, if Russia attacks some NATO member, I think that the US would obliterate that Russia army. If Russia then nukes some country, the US is gone retaliate proportionally. And then I guess it is either negotiations to agree or the end of the world if small nuclear exchanges escalate to strategic ones.
Hopefully we won’t ever see that happening.
I can't actually believe that. Ukrainians are just made of fecking steel.
No wonder their boxers have so much success.
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I agree with all of this. Of course, there always is a red line and in this case that's article 5. We all lose at the end of the day even in this scenario but that doesn't mean that US will accept being bullied over territory they have treaty obligations to. Let's all hope it doesn't come to this.
You have to realize if it got to this stage that Putin then will have made peace with dying himself too and that at that point it's not just up to Putin, he would need to have all rungs of the military on side to engage in such brinksmanship.
Against a nuclear armed country I don't think we would see it, Nato has enough capability to defend against anything coming across the border without needing to neutralise at source.
I do believe he is ready to go as far as he needs to achieve what he wants. His closest advisers also seem to be cut of the same cloth. And he most certainly wouldn't be in Moscow if he presses the big red button, so he'll probably survive.
In any case, if we were truly confident Putin would never go nuclear under any circumstances, we would have entered Ukraine already. There is definitely doubt there.
Stop being pedantic.
I am sure the US tracks Putin's movements and would have a nuke with his name on it regardless. Plus, if a strategic nuclear exchange occurred the US would likely act in a controversial way and nuke countries like China, Iran, and North Korea too. "If we go down, all of our competitors go down with us." That's why it should also be in China's interest to make sure that Putin doesn't escalate further.
So the russians would just keep attacking and launching missiles from their land and NATO would just be there taking them without attacking the sources? Do you really see things unfolding like that?
I hope so but unfortunately all I see is them patting him on the back for a job well done.
I am certain that at this point someone from his own circle will take him out, your basically killing your own family if you let that strike go ahead.