Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
How the various Oligarchs got their money through domestic means within Russia is generally not of interest to most nations. Most of the money belongs to Putin anyway, so he's the one they are after.
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I hope you see the hypocrisy of that.
 
rpitchfo said:
Anybody think a Russian civil war is a possibility?
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In the short term no

You may get an uprising against Putin (or more likley a deal constructed for him to live out his life as a multi billionaire in that fortress / palace hes built)

What would come after that could be interesting - Russia is a huge and diverse area thats always been difficult to manage... its not totally impossible that you could see a real push from some areas for more autionomy (areas rich in natural resource for example - or st Petersburg which has a distinctly European vibe to it)... this of course has the potential to spill out into conflict

The huge concern there would be though the many missile silos and mobile launchers as well as nuclear reactors spread all over the country... you could in theory quickly end up with several independent (virtualy bankrupt) regimes that have little history of international relations and diplomacy

In many ways I can envisage scenarios where packing putin off to the black sea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Putin's_Palace and having somebody else assume a central leadership function guaranteeing his safety and of those close to him may ultimately be seen as a least worst option vs an uncontrolled revolution into the unknown.

It feels rather unpalatable that the end game could be putin living like a king in his billion dollar palace but ultimately its perhaps better than uncontrolled nuclear proliferation to unknown actors in financial predicaments
 
For me, it's not about the removal of just Putin but the whole KGB style of rule in Russia.
 
rpitchfo said:
Anybody think a Russian civil war is a possibility?
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Yes, but more along the lines of minorities like Chechenya, Dagestan and Tatarstan seeking independence. But, that would happen only if Russia is completely spent in Ukraine, which would probably take a long time.

I mean if I'm USA, I'm right now probably stoking rebellion and independence movements in those regions.

Considering how the war in Ukraine is going, I don't see Russia handling multiple fronts for a long time.

I assume, however that a "deal" will be reached in a few months. So, yes there is a possibility, but only if Putin completely and utterly commits to Ukraine, which is doubtful.
 
Simbo said:
Personally I think it is important that Ukraine is seen to win this war on its own with as little involvement from the US as possible. US is the big bad enemy that Putin uses/needs to strenghten his position, direct US involvement would only increase his support and lengthen his campaign. Whereas losing a war to Ukraine utterly cripples him domestically and makes his position untenable.

Its crazy to think we are even talking about Ukraine winning this war, two weeks ago nobody really thought that possible, but here we are.

Don't think I disagree with any of US/Biden's actions so far. Jets is a tricky subject but I do see their point. I think the whole Poland giving migs to US for them to decide not to use them was a planned/staged public show of the US demonstrating they are not getting involved, this is Ukraines war (while hopefully transporting as much weaponry/ammo accross the Polish border as they can handle, plus intelligence and advice).
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I really dont understand why everyone keeps thinking this. Putin will never ever just accept defeat. He will flatten Ukraine with bombs, starve them, and maybe use chemical weapons before he accepts defeat. Even if he cant take Kiev as I have said from the beginning he will just annex Ukraine. Once he had inflicted enough damage he will just pull back and keep the east and the south. Probably will take some form of agreement with Nato and whats left of the Ukraine leadership that involves him keeping them and some sanctions lifted. Then he will claim victory and spin a story how all the natzis are defeated and they are protecting Russian citizens in Crimea and Kharkiv etc.
I really hope Im wrong but I just cant see Russia pulling out with their tails between their legs and going home in humiliation.
 


I highly recommend a listen to this. One of the best parts is the discussion about the miscalculation by Putin will have consequences for all potential future conflicts and tensions. Ukraine putting up such a resistance has opened up the possibility of smaller but technologically adapted states to potentially feel confident pushing back on aggressors and push diplomatic boundaries against superpowers/regional powers.
 
UpWithRivers said:
I really dont understand why everyone keeps thinking this. Putin will never ever just accept defeat. He will flatten Ukraine with bombs, starve them, and maybe use chemical weapons before he accepts defeat. Even if he cant take Kiev as I have said from the beginning he will just annex Ukraine. Once he had inflicted enough damage he will just pull back and keep the east and the south. Probably will take some form of agreement with Nato and whats left of the Ukraine leadership that involves him keeping them and some sanctions lifted. Then he will claim victory and spin a story how all the natzis are defeated and they are protecting Russian citizens in Crimea and Kharkiv etc.
I really hope Im wrong but I just cant see Russia pulling out with their tails between their legs and going home in humiliation.
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He'll risk a civil war doing so. And he'll alienate China probably.
 
So much death and destruction all for nothing. Just waiting for the inevitable, when Putin finally kills everyone including the Ukrainian President. All they'll have is rubble and uprisings.
 
AaronRedDevil said:
So much death and destruction all for nothing. Just waiting for the inevitable, when Putin finally kills everyone including the Ukrainian President. All they'll have is rubble and uprisings.
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I am not that pessimistic. First and foremost, Ukraine already received tons of arms from the West. Secondly, Russia has not really felt the impact of sanctions thus far. Much worse is yet to come. Finally, China does not look as supportive of Putin as most of us expected to. It is going to be a long game.
 
Zehner said:
He'll risk a civil war doing so. And he'll alienate China probably.
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He wont care. The ex Oligarch that Putin locked up for 10 years said think of Putin like a mob boss or the main gang leader in a prison. They have a different mindset and the basis is to never show weakness or you will be taken out. As far as Putin sees it backing down is not an option.
 
UpWithRivers said:
He wont care. The ex Oligarch that Putin locked up for 10 years said think of Putin like a mob boss or the main gang leader in a prison. They have a different mindset and the basis is to never show weakness or you will be taken out. As far as Putin sees it backing down is not an option.
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He can set the narrative anyway. Retreat and communicate to the public "see? We've demilitarized them and now we're backing off. We were always telling the truth all along, it was never about an occupation".
 
Can't we at least airlift some food, medicine and water to Mariupol in a Red Cross helicopter? Happy to let the Russians check the cargo first before flying in.

The people there need help and they can't evacuate because the Russians keep on shelling the evac routes.
 
Water Melon said:
I am not that pessimistic. First and foremost, Ukraine already received tons of arms from the West. Secondly, Russia has not really felt the impact of sanctions thus far. Much worse is yet to come. Finally, China does not look as supportive of Putin as most of us expected to. It is going to be a long game.
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That's all well and good. But I just can't see anything stopping Putin. Protest won't do anything. Just a bunch of noise outside. Unless they January 6th it. Only way it stops as if someone puts a bullet in him.
 
AaronRedDevil said:
That's all well and good. But I just can't see anything stopping Putin. Protest won't do anything. Just a bunch of noise outside. Unless they January 6th it. Only way it stops as if someone puts a bullet in him.
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Could well be a case, however, do not forget that Russian citizens have never faced sanctions like these. Lots of intelligent people are trying to leave the country, while oligarchs are losing their wealth too. China dooes not seem to be very supportive either. Am not sure there are many people supporting what Putin has done. Each and every day is hurting him so much more. Support of the West is huge and does not seem to be stopping anytime soon.
 
Hopefully, when Putin's inner circle realise that they'll be going down with him, they'll whack the cnut.
 
interesting listening to nicky campbell in radio 5 this morning constantly referring to Putin and his circle as a mafia and evil gangsters and thugs. the beeb dont seem to take the same approach to other authoritarian regimes.
 
Hopefully they work out some kind of neutrality deal allowing both sides to save face and withdraw because as we saw in Chechnya if the Russian army can’t occupy something they will completely destroy it. Zelensky has to realize by now that pursuing NATO membership has been a disaster for the Ukraine and the west doesn’t care about them.
 
AaronRedDevil said:
That's all well and good. But I just can't see anything stopping Putin. Protest won't do anything. Just a bunch of noise outside. Unless they January 6th it. Only way it stops as if someone puts a bullet in him.
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Putin is no wizard. In the end he's just a human being and if his economy doesn't produce the ressources necessary to wage war against Ukraine, then there's nothing he can do. The logistical and economical problems of Russia and it's military are very real. Alll his weaponry doesn't mean a thing if it's a) maintained badly, b) somewhere far away from the front line or c) nobody is there to control it. Russia's military is his muscle but it's useless if the blood supply is cut off.

Of course he could still use weapons of mass destruction like nukes or chemical warfare since through long range missiles. But that's an entirely different level of escalation and in order to do that, he'd have to be truly mad since it definitely means his demise and the downfall of Russia, too. And all the eperts currently are convinced that he is not mad but rather still rational - it's just that the information he's provided with is completely flawed due to the filter bubble he created for and the yes men he surrounded himself with. A system that shall prevent people from saying what's on their mind and telling the truth might be good to sustain your power but it's also a really bad basis to make decisions.

What I'd find very interesting to know: Is the Chinese intelligence and government system as flawed as this?
 
Mastadon said:
Hopefully they work out some kind of neutrality deal allowing both sides to save face and withdraw because as we saw in Chechnya if the Russian army can’t occupy something they will completely destroy it. Zelensky has to realize by now that pursuing NATO membership has been a disaster for the Ukraine and the west doesn’t care about them.
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I don't believe we should judge the innocent party's actions based on the aggressor's paranoid and illegal response.
 
UpWithRivers said:
I really dont understand why everyone keeps thinking this. Putin will never ever just accept defeat. He will flatten Ukraine with bombs, starve them, and maybe use chemical weapons before he accepts defeat. Even if he cant take Kiev as I have said from the beginning he will just annex Ukraine. Once he had inflicted enough damage he will just pull back and keep the east and the south. Probably will take some form of agreement with Nato and whats left of the Ukraine leadership that involves him keeping them and some sanctions lifted. Then he will claim victory and spin a story how all the natzis are defeated and they are protecting Russian citizens in Crimea and Kharkiv etc.
I really hope Im wrong but I just cant see Russia pulling out with their tails between their legs and going home in humiliation.
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It is a long way from certain but it has become a possibility, instead of certain defeat. This is huge shift, within two weeks.

We believe it because of what we are seeing every day. A clearly over-hyped and under-funded/supplied/trained/maintained/motivated Russian military that barely seem capable of winning a single head on battle with Ukrainian forces. The Russians have already pirimarily resorted to heavy bombardment and flattening ground. He can't take a country this way... Time is not on their side as the sanctions will bite deeper and deeper every day. Russia cannot replace any hi-tech equipment, they have a limited supply. Yes they have ungodly quantities of old hardware in soviet warehouses, but unless it has been well maintained all this time (very unlikely), it just won't work. Whereas Ukraine only grows stronger.

The main question marks are in the South, Mariupol is pretty much being sacrificed right now. They appear to be easily defending Mykolaiv however which means Odessa is also safe. One thing I am fairly certain of now is that Kyiv will never fall.
 
Mastadon said:
Hopefully they work out some kind of neutrality deal allowing both sides to save face and withdraw because as we saw in Chechnya if the Russian army can’t occupy something they will completely destroy it. Zelensky has to realize by now that pursuing NATO membership has been a disaster for the Ukraine and the west doesn’t care about them.
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They are already doing the Chechnya/Aleppo thing, as we speak, the orders have been given. Its just slower because Ukraine actually has some air defense.
 
TMDaines said:
Seems like they are purging all of the Meta companies.



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The important bit is that they're not just banning it. They started the process of including them (Meta) in the list of extremists organisations which, in theory, can mean even something as insane as a prison sentence for posting/having an app on your phone... We'll know more when they'll pass the resolution though.
 
TMDaines said:
Seems like they are purging all of the Meta companies.



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Facebook announced yesterday that they would make an exception and allow people to use hate speech against Russians in general (not just Russian military/invasion). This is probably Russia's response, in part.
 
Frosty said:
I thought the EU had decided against this though (specifically France and Germany). Is this spin?
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They decided against the “fast track” outside the normal process that Zelensky asked for. They all say we have to follow the rules, but we are positive to making it as fast as possible.

We will know more later today with the common declaration they’ll put forward. Bear in mind that this is an extraordinary “informal” meeting and no big decisions can be made. They will give the commission the mandate to prepare some big plans, that will be acted in the normal summit at the end of the month.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Facebook announced yesterday that they would make an exception and allow people to use hate speech against Russians in general (not just Russian military/invasion). This is probably Russia's response, in part.
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Unless i've missed something, it's not what i've read. Even in their internal moderation email they mentionned :


"We are issuing a spirit-of-the-policy allowance to allow T1 violent speech that would otherwise be removed under the Hate Speech policy when: (a) targeting Russian soldiers, EXCEPT prisoners of war, or (b) targeting Russians where it's clear that the context is the Russian invasion of Ukraine (e.g., content mentions the invasion, self-defense, etc.)," it said in the email.

"We are doing this because we have observed that in this specific context, 'Russian soldiers' is being used as a proxy for the Russian military. The Hate Speech policy continues to prohibit attacks on Russians," the email stated.
 
Withnail said:
Facebook making sound decisions as usual I see.
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It's dubious but you could argue they made a cultural distinction for the sake of Eastern European states that will be filled with anti-Russian sentiment and will spread it online.
 
Pintu said:
They decided against the “fast track” outside the normal process that Zelensky asked for. They all say we have to follow the rules, but we are positive to making it as fast as possible.

We will know more later today with the common declaration they’ll put forward. Bear in mind that this is an extraordinary “informal” meeting and no big decisions can be made. They will give the commission the mandate to prepare some big plans, that will be acted in the normal summit at the end of the month.
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It is a shame how that is not how it is being reported by Reuters etc. Thanks for the clarification though.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
Facebook announced yesterday that they would make an exception and allow people to use hate speech against Russians in general (not just Russian military/invasion). This is probably Russia's response, in part.
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I missed this from Facebook.

Ironic to say the least.

 
Oly Francis said:
Unless i've missed something, it's not what i've read. Even in their internal moderation email they mentionned :


"We are issuing a spirit-of-the-policy allowance to allow T1 violent speech that would otherwise be removed under the Hate Speech policy when: (a) targeting Russian soldiers, EXCEPT prisoners of war, or (b) targeting Russians where it's clear that the context is the Russian invasion of Ukraine (e.g., content mentions the invasion, self-defense, etc.)," it said in the email.

"We are doing this because we have observed that in this specific context, 'Russian soldiers' is being used as a proxy for the Russian military. The Hate Speech policy continues to prohibit attacks on Russians," the email stated.
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It's the "targeting Russians" part that is ambiguous and not at all clear ("Russians are scum, defend Ukraine" would be OK in that context because "Russians" can be taken as a proxy for "Russian soldiers"). Apply that logic to Israel and you see how dubious it is (outright racist).
 
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