Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

It would also go some way to explaining the renewed effort to hit Ukraine’s airfields in recent days.

I'm sure that Saab are salivating at the prospect of selling their jets to Ukraine in the future. The Gripen, which is also used by the Czech Air Force, was designed in a way that it can take off from snow-covered landing strips or roads of only 800 metres (2,600 ft) long in a scenario of defensive force dispersal of combat aircraft. I wish Ukraine had those right now because it would fit their ability to disperse their existing forces on the ground.


What was it doing there in the first place?
 
I'm sure that Saab are salivating at the prospect of selling their jets to Ukraine in the future. The Gripen, which is also used by the Czech Air Force, was designed in a way that it can take off from snow-covered landing strips or roads of only 800 metres (2,600 ft) long in a scenario of defensive force dispersal of combat aircraft. I wish Ukraine had those right now because it would fit their ability to disperse their existing forces on the ground.



What was it doing there in the first place?
Honestly my gut feeling is that Russia are going to be up to all sorts of dirty tactics to goad US and/or NATO to see how far they will go
 
It certainly looks that way, although I'm not sure what Moscow would gain from that
Maybe they have a plan up their sleeves involving backup from China (who want to make a play on Taiwan asap) and North Korea (itching to fire their missiles). I feel like war is stirring and it’s not coming from nato and the US
 
Honestly my gut feeling is that Russia are going to be up to all sorts of dirty tactics to goad US and/or NATO to see how far they will go

I think the red line will be chemical/biological weapons. I think once a war escalated to that they won’t be able to simply watch on and hide behind Article 5 any longer.
 
Maybe they have a plan up their sleeves involving backup from China (who want to make a play on Taiwan asap) and North Korea (itching to fire their missiles). I feel like war is stirring and it’s not coming from nato and the US
The Russians don't want Moscow to be wiped off the map, so I doubt they'll want to escalate this with NATO.
 
The Russians don't want Moscow to be wiped off the map, so I doubt they'll want to escalate this with NATO.
You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve
 
What was it doing there in the first place?
It's possible someone made a really stupid mistake while setting the coordinates for the mission. It crashed as mentioned in the article near Jarun. There is also a village called Yarun in Ukraine (halfway between Kiyv and Riwne).
 
You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve
Without nuke options, they are toasted in a war against NATO. If he wants to go nuclear, he doesn’t need an excuse.

So, I don’t think so.
 
Russian ships leaving the Odessa area would be significant news. They could of course still attack by land.

Yeh the land route is through Mikolaiv, hence the focus there. Resorting to heavy bombardment now after multiple assaults have been repelled quite easily it seems.
 
I mean if he says no to putin his time left on earth will be measured in hours so I'm not sure that chats gonna work

Not really. The sudden death of Lukashenko would only embolden internal opposition forces inside his country. Putin wouldn't want that.
 
You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve

What though?

Nuclear is the big bluff, at least we hope it's a bluff, but what else could Russia or China offer? No chance there's some secret weapon unknown about in this day and age, and in direct conflict with Nato they would be battered. China don't want to be a part of this, it's why they remain seemingly on the fence, they know Putin has fecked this and they know the Russian army are stuck in the past. It's way more likely that those supporting Russia are playing the "I'm not involved" game hoping Putin has a plan but deep down knowing the world has to move on once this has been resolved one way or the other.
 
You say that but they are probably calculating who’s gonna get the best shots in first. Maybe he fancies his odds. Maybe he doesn’t use the nuke option and has something else up his sleeve

There are zero odds he can win vs NATO. He can only assure mutual destruction and we don't know if he is crazy enough to get there.

The other possibility is that he is now acting as a failed gambler. He doubles his bet because he still believes the West is morally weak and they will not go to war no matter what.
 
Russian ships leaving the Odessa area would be significant news. They could of course still attack by land.

I don't really understand this by the Russians, unless they don't have the supplies to remain or are intending to come back. Lurking off the coast of Odessa means the Ukrainians have to worry about an amphibious assault in addition to the attack from (or likely around) Mykolaiv. The Ukrainians could move some of the forces they've reserved in Odessa to send to Mykolaiv or the salient north of it to try to prevent it being bypassed.
 
According to two Meduza journalists, Putin's now purging the FSB division responsible for foreign intelligence with two high-ranking officials under arrest.
 
Geolocated outside Kyiv apparently



I don't understand the Russian tactics. Driving down a road, with no infantry screen either side, is just asking to to be ambushed and hit by anti-armour weapons.
 
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-planning-chernobyl-attack-ukraine/

Erm, what in the name of holy feck is this?!?!?!

This was something I discussed with friends. Biden and everyone is so adamant that they won't interfere while the war is 'limited' to Ukraine - what happens if they do something at Chernobyl or another plant? What happens is (worst case hypothetical scenario) he was to drop a nuke in Ukraine? Surely they couldn't still sit by and let it continue?
 
I think the red line will be chemical/biological weapons. I think once a war escalated to that they won’t be able to simply watch on and hide behind Article 5 any longer.
Nobody is "hiding" behind article 5. As Biden said, direct NATO involvement is WW3. There is a deliberate effort being made on our side to avoid escalation or the appearance of escalation, partly because of the whole WW3 thing, and partly because Putin likes escalation games and we just don't want to give him what he wants.
 
I don't understand the Russian tactics. Driving down a road, with no infantry screen either side, is just asking to to be ambushed and hit by anti-armour weapons.

They don't really have any tactics other than bombing the hell out of cities.
 
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/putin-planning-chernobyl-attack-ukraine/

Erm, what in the name of holy feck is this?!?!?!

This was something I discussed with friends. Biden and everyone is so adamant that they won't interfere while the war is 'limited' to Ukraine - what happens if they do something at Chernobyl or another plant? What happens is (worst case hypothetical scenario) he was to drop a nuke in Ukraine? Surely they couldn't still sit by and let it continue?
What would you want to happen and would you be prepared to die for that in a potential nuclear exchange? It's not an abstract question either.
 
This is not a drone, it's actually as almost as big as a plane. Weights 6000 kilograms!

And it travelled all the way throogh Hungary for around 40 minutes, to Croatia, and no one even noticed it until students from nearby buildings reported it to the police. NATO, eh? :lol:

The fact that this is not even a big news is even more disturbing.
The fact that they know exactly the route it took and how long it spent in which airspace shows that it was noticed. Probably it was identified as a reconaissance craft and therefore no action was taken.
 
Last edited: