Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Maybe, maybe not. We'll see I guess. Unlike Vietnam and Afganistan, Ukranians don't live in the jungles or mountains. I think Mariupol is setting an example of what happens to towns that resist.. much like Grozny or Aleppo. Buildings are much easier targets than trees in the jungle are.

You do realize that the Russians don't have the resources to hold any cities/towns they "take over" yes ? Carpet bombing a city is easy. Fighting a protracted counterinsurgency is very difficult, especially when your troops don't even want to be in Ukraine.
 
At this point I have to wonder what planet you’ve been living on?

Russia has essentially all of its military in Ukraine at the moment and 16 days in still has no control of the country.

The economy is collapsing and when it’s reserves run out it will fall hard to the floor.

Finally there’s been plenty of open descent from state television and influential individuals from within Russia about the conflict and even more mass public protests.

The wheels are slowly falling off this. To suggest they could take and hold Ukraine THEN move on to Finland and other surrounding non NATO countries is utterly ridiculous when looking at the above facts.

None of those points you've listed are facts. Or even close to being true. Russia has less than a fifth of it's military in Ukraine, with many millions more as reserve personnel.

The economy isn't anywhere close to collapsing (-7% estimated contraction) and resources won't run out for a long while.

Not sure where you've got the dissent stuff from but I won't get into that argument, as how Russian society has been run under Putin for the last 20+ years is fairly common knowledge.

Also I didn't suggest they were going to move on to Moldova or Finland, I merely suggested that it'd be an option in the future given that Putin now knows that Nato won't protect non-Nato countries.

For any any cities they take they are going to have to leave men behind to fight insurgents. Insurgents who look like them, can probably speak like them and who can move largely undetected and at will. It will make Vietnam and Afghanistan look like positive military operations.

The Russian army is on a hiding to nothing, much like the Russian economy.

Maybe, maybe not. We'll see I guess. Unlike Vietnam and Afganistan, Ukranians don't live in the jungles or mountains. I think Mariupol is setting an example of what happens to towns that resist.. much like Grozny or Aleppo. Buildings are much easier targets than trees in the jungle are.

Also it wasn't that long ago that Ukraine fought a war against the Soviet Union, and lost.
 
None of those points you've listed are facts. Or even close to being true. Russia has less than a fifth of it's military in Ukraine, with many millions more as reserve personnel.

The economy isn't anywhere close to collapsing (-7% estimated contraction) and resources won't run out for a long while.

Not sure where you've got the dissent stuff but I won't get into that argument as how Russian society has been run under Putin for the last 20+ years is fairly common knowledge.

Also I didn't suggest they were going to move on to Moldova or Finland, I merely suggested that it'd be an option in the future given that Putin now knows that Nato won't protect non-Nato countries.



Maybe, maybe not. We'll see I guess. Unlike Vietnam and Afganistan, Ukranians don't live in the jungles or mountains. I think Mariupol is setting an example of what happens to towns that resist.. much like Grozny or Aleppo. Buildings are much easier targets than trees in the jungle are.

Also it wasn't that long ago that Ukraine fought a war against the Soviet Union, and lost.
Russians had 170ish BTGs in 2021, they’ve deployed 110ish to Ukraine. You seem to be conflating Soviet era strength with current strength.
 
None of those points you've listed are facts. Or even close to being true. Russia has less than a fifth of it's military in Ukraine, with many millions more as reserve personnel.

Yay, lets send reserve personnel to ukraine on horses like it's 1915!
 
None of those points you've listed are facts. Or even close to being true. Russia has less than a fifth of it's military in Ukraine, with many millions more as reserve personnel.

The economy isn't anywhere close to collapsing (-7% estimated contraction) and resources won't run out for a long while.

Not sure where you've got the dissent stuff from but I won't get into that argument, as how Russian society has been run under Putin for the last 20+ years is fairly common knowledge.

Also I didn't suggest they were going to move on to Moldova or Finland, I merely suggested that it'd be an option in the future given that Putin now knows that Nato won't protect non-Nato countries.



Maybe, maybe not. We'll see I guess. Unlike Vietnam and Afganistan, Ukranians don't live in the jungles or mountains. I think Mariupol is setting an example of what happens to towns that resist.. much like Grozny or Aleppo. Buildings are much easier targets than trees in the jungle are.

Also it wasn't that long ago that Ukraine fought a war against the Soviet Union, and lost.

But...they haven't taken Mariupol. You can't bomb the shit out of a place your troops have moved into...

And are you seriously trying to talk about a war fought over 100 years ago as some kind of evidence for your theory about how the current war will go? Do you not think a few things might have changed in the intervening time?
 
But you believe arming the ukrainian people to keep fighting will help solve the issue? This is adding fuel to the fire in my opinion and in the end it's the people who will pay the bill. Sanctions can cripple Russia yes, but it still doesn't prevent them from doing the worst and which is using nuclear...
Have you asked the Ukrainians whether they want to fight on?
 
I don't think things are nearly as bad as has often been portrayed in western media. A couple of thousand soldiers dead, it's nothing really in the grand scheme of things. Having air superiority means you can do pretty much what you want, it's why pretty much every Ukrainian official quoted in the news recently mentions the need for the no fly zone.

A month or two is nothing either, the Russians lost 20 million in WW2 in battles that lasted through cold snowy winters.. The problem is when you control the media, the politicians and pretty much the whole of society, you can control whatever narrative you want. If Russia loses a 100,000 soliders? Another 100,000 will simply be told to defend the motherland against the Ukranian nazi invaders in their place.

Even if the Ukrainian reports of 12,000+ Russian dead is likely an exaggeration, they've certainly lost a lot more than just "couple of thousand". U.S estimates - which are lower than European estimates - are between 5 - 6,000 dead Russians.

And for every dead soldier there are probably 3 times that many wounded. I'd reckon they have at least 20,000 killed, wounded, deserted, captured or surrendered . In another month, with higher casualty rates from trying to enter and take cities, that figure will rise to at least 80,000. And that's not to mention further loss of tanks and other vehicles.

Russia doesn't have another 100,000 spare soldiers of an adequate, properly trained, properly equipped, volunteer professional variety. Moreover, this isn't WWII when Russia actually was invaded by Nazis. This time its Russia doing the invading - hard to sell "defending the motherland against invasion", especially to an internet/social media generation.
 
None of those points you've listed are facts. Or even close to being true. Russia has less than a fifth of it's military in Ukraine, with many millions more as reserve personnel.

The economy isn't anywhere close to collapsing (-7% estimated contraction) and resources won't run out for a long while.

Not sure where you've got the dissent stuff from but I won't get into that argument, as how Russian society has been run under Putin for the last 20+ years is fairly common knowledge.

Also I didn't suggest they were going to move on to Moldova or Finland, I merely suggested that it'd be an option in the future given that Putin now knows that Nato won't protect non-Nato countries.



Maybe, maybe not. We'll see I guess. Unlike Vietnam and Afganistan, Ukranians don't live in the jungles or mountains. I think Mariupol is setting an example of what happens to towns that resist.. much like Grozny or Aleppo. Buildings are much easier targets than trees in the jungle are.

Also it wasn't that long ago that Ukraine fought a war against the Soviet Union, and lost.

:lol: settle down Vlad
 
I don't think things are nearly as bad as has often been portrayed in western media. A couple of thousand soldiers dead, it's nothing really in the grand scheme of things. Having air superiority means you can do pretty much what you want, it's why pretty much every Ukrainian official quoted in the news recently mentions the need for the no fly zone.
Anywhere between 5,000 and 10,000 soldiers reportedly lost, God knows how many AFVs and aircraft, they don't have air superiority, whilst Ukraine is being supplied with anti-tank and anti-air weapons all the time, plus they still have 56 fighters availabe if they need (or want) to use them.
 
Ukranians will fight, but in the end they will fail. It may take weeks, months, even years, but Putin won't stop until he has Ukraine. Everything we've seen in the past from him shows that he hate showing weakness, he hates not getting the outcome he wants and he will do whatever it takes to get there.

The only way to stop that is if the west provides enough to counter Russia's superior military capability, particularly in the skies, but it doesn't look like they'll even provide those jets Poland wanted to send. So in the end Ukraine will fight nobly, Ukraine will fight bloodily, and Ukraine will fall. They will lose a lot for nothing.

At that point you would wonder if it's simply better to just give up and accept your fate instead of all the bloodshed. If the west doesn't want to get involved due to the risk of nuclear warfare then there is no outcome other than Ukraine falling. And other non-Nato European countries will likely be next if Putin lives long enough, Maldova is almost certainly guaranteed, and Finland and Sweden are very feasible targets as Nato wouldn't get involved. The only saving grace is that Putin is already quite old. Had he been 10 years younger you'd almost certainly be looking at further invasions, and the question you'd have to ask is at what point do you intervene to stop the madness. Instead it looks as though Ukraine won't be the Czechoslovakia of WW2, but rather just a sacrificial lamb.
Basically zero chance he takes Ukraine and even less chance he ever gets anywhere near Finland or Sweden.
 
All this WWIII talk is batshit. I think the rest of the world are playing this correctly at the moment. I don't think there is one single person involved who wants a world war or to use nukes. If anyone in the UK, US, Europe or wherever felt for one minute Russia was going to fire one then they would get in first. 100%

Why on earth would anyone get involved now and risk a nuclear war (total destruction of the planet) when the signs are good. The Russian troops are in disarray, it seems they are poorly trained and have many logictical and mechaniical issues, as well as their own personal and moral disagreements.about the attack on Ukraine and reports of the lack of food, equipment, training etc

The Ukrainians are holding their own well and have a leader who is inspiring hope to his countrymen and women. It even appears that the Russian fake news and disinformation propaganda war is being lost with many speaking out against the war from inside Russia. That on top of many of the Russian speaking areas of Ukraine also showing extreme anger at the invasion.

The sanctions placed on Russia and its citizens will start to hurt badly causing more unrest from the Russian people, and the strategic support from many countries is invaluable too. As is the support of equipment and weapons and the training that had been done prior to the invasion.

With all that in mind, why on earth would anyone risk escalating things further? Implementing a no fly zone or sending troops or the like. That would be insane. I think this has been played well so far and that thankfully calmer heads are prevailing. I just hope that continues, as Putin will undoubtedly become more and more enraged.and desperate the longer things don't go his way.

All that being said though, I get how hard it is to feel like we are sitting back and doing nothing while all this is going on. I feel incredibly sad when thinking about all the lives being lost and destroyed by this. And I also feel awful for what many Russian citizens will have to endure when the sanctions really start to kick in. It will lead to much suffering of innocent people. All of it is sad and avoidable.

I just hope it can all end as quickly as possible with the least amount of casualties and suffering on all sides, and certainly without further escalation or anyone else getting involved. I would hope that's what everyone would want, but after reading some of the comments in here, I have to wonder and that's quite scary.
 
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Can't say I'm terribly familiar with the Russian Instagram influencer sphere and maybe she does just really likes sharing pics of food but I do wonder if she's actually crying because she previously had a steady income and she now likely has lost that.
 
Russia may have numbers but their maintenance and logistics is terrible, to the point it doesn't even matter how many men or weapons you have. And if Russia was so overpowering, they wouldn't be asking Belarus, Mercenary groups and the Chechens/other states to provide man power. This is definitely making Russia look weak on a global stage. They don't even have air superiority yet despite having a much larger airforce

Difference opinion, but I don't think any of that is truly happening.
 


Savage.

Maybe, maybe not. We'll see I guess. Unlike Vietnam and Afganistan, Ukranians don't live in the jungles or mountains. I think Mariupol is setting an example of what happens to towns that resist.. much like Grozny or Aleppo. Buildings are much easier targets than trees in the jungle are.

Also it wasn't that long ago that Ukraine fought a war against the Soviet Union, and lost.

Are you serious to even compare now with a war that took place in 1917? JFC.:wenger:

And let's talk about extreme examples of urban combat. The Nazis already tried pounding Leningrad and Stalingrad into oblivion, and yet that was never enough to break the defenders. At Leningrad, Axis forces failed hard although the Soviets suffered a total of 3,436,066 casualties against 579,985 casualties for Axis forces. At Stalingrad, the Soviets had 1,129,619 casualties while the Axis lost between 747,300 and 868,374 combat casualties. The defenders are bound to suffer greatly, but are Russians willing to lose as many soldiers as the Nazis did if they keep on losing valuable veterans and officers until resorting to yet-to-be-trained conscripts when that is not a fight for their own existence? If you know History, I'm sure you can draw parallels between Putin's army and Nicholas II's army during WW1 in terms of very poor performance despite strong numbers.
 
A good interview that crystalises the Ukraine conflict and some of its uniqueness.



Really good interview.

The part about the UN establishing humanitarian corridors is often overlooked because they haven't done so in a while, but they also can get involved to ensure humanitarian help to get through as a part of their mandate. If they want to bring in non-NATO troops to enforce the protection of humanitarian convoys, they are always welcome to do so. I think they are long due to do something big to get their good image back after 2-3 decades of nothing.
 
At that point you would wonder if it's simply better to just give up and accept your fate instead of all the bloodshed. If the west doesn't want to get involved due to the risk of nuclear warfare then there is no outcome other than Ukraine falling. And other non-Nato European countries will likely be next if Putin lives long enough, Maldova is almost certainly guaranteed, and Finland and Sweden are very feasible targets as Nato wouldn't get involved. The only saving grace is that Putin is already quite old. Had he been 10 years younger you'd almost certainly be looking at further invasions, and the question you'd have to ask is at what point do you intervene to stop the madness. Instead it looks as though Ukraine won't be the Czechoslovakia of WW2, but rather just a sacrificial lamb.

Basically zero chance he takes Ukraine and even less chance he ever gets anywhere near Finland or Sweden.

Both Finland and Sweden are in EU. NATO founding member Denmark is the only EU country currently not covered by EU's article 42.7 (the equivalent of NATO's article 5). And guess what, Denmark has just decided to hold a referendum in june to abolish their opt out and join EU's defense pact (Thank you Putin).

Even if Putin is crasy enough to want war with EU, such a war could very quickly become a NATO war as 21 of the 27 EU members are in NATO. And Biden doesn't seem to appraise the security of Europe in the same way Trump did. Is he crasy enough to want that WW3?

Furthemore Europe is taking more steps to strength its defense capabilities. Many countries have already announced increased spending on defense. And yesterday the EU summit announced a new plan with up to 200 billions for defense.
 


You can always rely on Fox to twist the past and turn something that should be easy reporting in to outright bullshit.

Did they forget Trump withholding aid to Ukraine and trying to convince the public it was Ukraine that interfered with the election and not Russia and openly blackmail them to open an investigation into Biden.

The exact actions that led to his first impeachment...

Ffs
 
You can always rely on Fox to twist the past and turn something that should be easy reporting in to outright bullshit.

Did they forget Trump withholding aid to Ukraine and trying to convince the public it was Ukraine that interfered with the election and not Russia and openly blackmail them to open an investigation into Biden.

The exact actions that led to his first impeachment...

Ffs

The "While most Americans stand behind Ukraine’s struggle to protect its democracy" certainly doesn't cover "most in Fox"



 
The "While most Americans stand behind Ukraine’s struggle to protect its democracy" certainly doesn't cover "most in Fox"





It's quite amazing how Mate and Greenwald just stick with the Kremlin script without questioning. Mate is an Assadist scumbag. Even professional contrarian Matt Taibbi issued a mea culpa after months of saying Russia wouldn't invade and it was just the West fear mongering.
 
Great interview and pretty chilling.



Agree, this is incredibly chilling.
Especially, at around minute 24 as she explains the Helsinki meeting with Trump and Putin.
(not going to explain because this isn't the thread for that conversation, just sayin')

This conclusion is particularly terrifying. The Russian oligarchs need to end this Putin monster before the worst outcome imaginable ends us all
 
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A month or two is nothing either, the Russians lost 20 million in WW2 in battles that lasted through cold snowy winters.. The problem is when you control the media, the politicians and pretty much the whole of society, you can control whatever narrative you want. If Russia loses a 100,000 soliders? Another 100,000 will simply be told to defend the motherland against the Ukranian nazi invaders in their place.

In a war of attrition against an invader where they had the advantage of using the terrain against the enemy, the motivation of fighting for the survival of their nation and way of life, and where the enemy's forces gradually atrophied as they lost soldiers, machinery, and morale ...
 
Can't say I'm terribly familiar with the Russian Instagram influencer sphere and maybe she does just really likes sharing pics of food but I do wonder if she's actually crying because she previously had a steady income and she now likely has lost that.
Exactly this I'd imagine.

I'd be pretty upset if I got told my income would stop due to something I have no control over or probably know little about.
Tweets like these do not need to be shared on here in my opinion, most Russians are innocent victims of Putin's war, no need to gloat over their hardships.
Chelsea fans however...
 
It's might be alarming real to alarm you.
Exactly that.

It's brilliant propaganda.

My point was this has been mocked up quickly but shows how easy it is to come up with realistic images and videos.
 
According to this (and the sources cited) it was well monitored during it's flight: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zagreb_2022_Tu-141_Crash

And the reason could simply be that it run out of fuel (which would be no surprise if the theory is right that it was intented to fly to Yarun, Ukraine, not Jarun, Croatia). If it started somewhere near the Ukraine/Russian border it would fit very well the known operating range to drop down in that area.

I understand the reason why it crashed, but there is absolutely no explanation why it hasn't been intercepted or reported by Hungarians to Croatia. It was monitored by a radar but no one was alarmed, and the fact that only after aftermath of the crash they "guessed" what it is is ridiculous.