Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Using chemical weapons against your brotherly nation tells you all you need to know about how far Putin is willing to go.

He'd probably use them in Russia if the need arises in his sick mind. Absolute psychopath
 
Rightnr said:
Using chemical weapons against your brotherly nation tells you all you need to know about how far Putin is willing to go.

He'd probably use them in Russia if the need arises in his sick mind. Absolute psychopath
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100%. Which is why endlessly enabling him by taking military options off the table will only incentivize him to keep murdering the masses.
 
sun_tzu said:
My calculus is that China isolating him would massively increase the chances of that happening
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I don't think it would influence him much TBH. He only understands the language of violence and coercion, which means the only thing that will change his risk calculus would be a threat to his own life or getting into a hot war with the United States (which would be tantamount to him committing suicide). Ultimately, Putin is all about his own self-preservation and the only way to influence him would be a threat to his own survival.
 
Raoul said:
NATO and the world need to prepare for how to respond if this happens. More sanctions simply won't cut it at this point. It will require a military response.
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Not if that response involves direct combat between NATO and Russians forces. The red line is a Russian attack on a NATO country - and there it must remain. As terrible for Ukraine as this may be, we cannot risk a nuclear WWIII. This is the hard truth.

Russia is losing this war. Chemical attacks will not change the outcome.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Not if that response involves direct combat between NATO and Russians forces. The red line is a Russian attack on a NATO country - and there it must remain. As terrible for Ukraine as this may be, we cannot risk a nuclear WWIII. This is the hard truth.

Russia is losing this war. Chemical attacks will not change the outcome.
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I think its inevitable at this point, unless of course NATO are ok with standing by with a genocide in Europe.

(Disclaimer: Genocide is genocide wherever it takes place, but far more conspicuous when it takes place next door).
 
If Ukraine have intelligence that Russia will carry out the chemical attack, can they not preempt? Obviously, intelligence might not stretch that far but just a thought.
 
Rightnr said:
If Ukraine have intelligence that Russia will carry out the chemical attack, can they not preempt? Obviously, intelligence might not stretch that far but just a thought.
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Preempt what ? Launch their own chemical attack against Russian soldiers in Ukraine ?
 
Rightnr said:
I meant prevent or stop the Russians.
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The information is apparently coming from the US side that the Russians are going to do it and blame the Ukrainians having done it to the Russians. It would be hard to stop something like that since they don't know how the attack would take place, whether by a dropped bomb from a bomber or otherwise.
 
Raoul said:
Preempt what ? Launch their own chemical attack against Russian soldiers in Ukraine ?
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Raoul said:
The information is apparently coming from the US side that the Russians are going to do it and blame the Ukrainians having done it to the Russians. It would be hard to stop something like that since they don't know how the attack would take place, whether by a dropped bomb from a bomber or otherwise.
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Wouldn't rule out putin sacrificing a few dozen of his own conscripts and doing a chemical attack on them and saying it was Ukraine
 
The Firestarter said:
How? That means unilaterally bombing their missile sites.
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hellhunter said:
Which would be fair game for Ukraine, if they could get close enough
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The above is what I had in mind since I imagine they'd launch from within Ukraine.

If not, it's another example of how asymmetric this war is. I can keep hitting you until I kill you but you cannot respond.
 
Rightnr said:
Using chemical weapons against your brotherly nation tells you all you need to know about how far Putin is willing to go.

He'd probably use them in Russia if the need arises in his sick mind. Absolute psychopath
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Has he used it at Chechnya?
 
Rightnr said:
Using chemical weapons against your brotherly nation tells you all you need to know about how far Putin is willing to go.

He'd probably use them in Russia if the need arises in his sick mind. Absolute psychopath
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Well he novichok’d Navalny, so already has to be fair.

And you’re right, he doesn’t give a feck. Absolute top cnut.
 
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Raoul said:
I think its inevitable at this point, unless of course NATO are ok with standing by with a genocide in Europe.

(Disclaimer: Genocide is genocide wherever it takes place, but far more conspicuous when it takes place next door).
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It's not inevitable. Moreover, genocide aims to totally destroy a nation or group. Putin will never be able to achieve that aim, even if he kills many tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

I repeat, Putin is losing this war. The most essential thing, barring an attack on a NATO country, is preventing this defeat of the Russian military from turning into a nuclear WWIII.
 
Rightnr said:
I'd like to understand the thinking of 'soldiers' who shoot at children. Absolutely disgusting and no excuses.
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I'm not saying that it false but I think we should also be careful regarding this sort of info coming from the SBU as well. They're trying very hard to make NATO react and while I think war propaganda is fair game, there's chances everything is not entirely true (even if I don't question for a second that russia's behavior is appalling).
 
It's a rotten comparison, but Kyiv could be like Ukraine's very own battle of Stalingrad - it's heavily fortified, the civilians have been armed and they will fight to the death to stop Russia. Could be either a complete disaster for the Russians, or a very, very bloody Russian victory at the cost of huge collateral damage to the city and remaining population.
 
Oly Francis said:
I'm not saying that it false but I think we should also be careful regarding this sort of info coming from the SBU as well. They're trying very hard to make NATO react and while I think war propaganda is fair game, there's chances everything is not entirely true (even if I don't question for a second that russia's behavior is appalling).
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Here's the excerpt, but I cannot vouch for the translation from the Russian:



" The SBU intercepted conversations between the occupiers: in Kharkiv they were ordered to shoot at civilians The Russian army is throwing more and more forces into the encirclement of the city, but it does not give the desired results, and the losses of the occupiers are incomparable. We continue to collect facts of Russian war crimes. "
 
Oly Francis said:
I'm not saying that it false but I think we should also be careful regarding this sort of info coming from the SBU as well. They're trying very hard to make NATO react and while I think war propaganda is fair game, there's chances everything is not entirely true (even if I don't question for a second that russia's behavior is appalling).
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Yes, I've said this from the beginning - just because we're on Ukraine's team, doesn't mean we can't call out misinformation from either side. Not saying this is specifically misinformation, but I agree with your general point.
 
Rajma said:
Many Ukrainian football teams have their preseason done in Turkey around this time.
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But surely they're not thinking of going back now? I'm wondering if they got stranded here.
 
TMDaines said:
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The war ending in Putin getting Dombas as a negociation prize was the most likely theory since day one unfortunately. I still think it is. Now lets see how far west he goes. In my opinion, the question is probably more about Russia installing a pro-Russia governement in Ukraine if they take Kyiv.
 
The Firestarter said:
Can they counterattack though, they will need new hardware for that.
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It's a matter of waiting for the perfect moment until the Russians trap themselves in a vulnerable area where they can be picked off by surrounding Ukrainians. That is how the French lost the Indochina War at Dien Bien Phu.
 
Raoul said:
That wouldn't stop Putin though. The only thing that will stop him is trouble inside Russia through an uprising or coup and/or the US getting militarily involved. His calculus so far has been "I can do what I want because I have nukes and you wouldn't dare attempt to stop me". The US needs to do the same to him by taking some sort of provocative military action that ignores Putin and seeks to protect Ukrainians. Put the pressure on Putin to respond to that at at time when he's losing the war in Ukraine and in danger of crushing pressure back home.
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I agree, sacrificing Ukraine shouldn't be an option.
 
TMDaines said:
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Maybe. Maybe not. I don't think western leaders like Putin much right now and would prefer for him to go down. Only way is if he completely loses in Ukraine. So if sanctions keep piling up, with hostile population in controlled area, after enough time, I can see Russian front completely and utterly collapsing. Even now, based on certain estimates about the rate of their loses suggest they might be spent soon. Of course those estimates could be too optimistic. But how long the Russians can keep going before they collapse.

Of course the scenario in the tweet is also quite likely. If there is one thing I don't trust politicians is to support the right side when it gets tough. But that's a cynical take and I'm really trying to be optimist here, that eventually Ukraine will prevail.
 
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