Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Me at 69 (hopefully) - 4 years into my retirement, enjoying life visiting different parts of the world in my motor home. Kids doing well in their careers. Just hoping that me and my wife’s health is good and my kids are doing ok.

Putin at 69 - not content with the billions hes acquired leading one of the most resource rich countries in world he wants a little bit more. He’s prepared to sacrifice 10s of thousands of people and make millions homeless to get what he wants.

This guy needs to be flayed and soaked in vinegar.
 
Redlambs said:
So you honestly think he'll start a war with NATO? And still the question remains, what is the next step to stop that?




Is there a solid idea of how that happens? Seems like China are only distancing themselves now they realise the Russians have got themselves into bother, not because they have suddenly changed their vision for expansion.


I guess what I'm getting at is I just don't see a path for Nato or even individual countries like Poland/Germany to do anything other than continue to supply Ukraine and sanctions and I certainly don't think China will allow themselves to be manipulated into distancing, they'll only do what suits them. So I just don't really get what these vague suggestions of doing more really means?
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If he thinks he can get away with it, he will do it. He has proven that repeatedly since the early 2000s. In many cases, he can foment trouble within countries without actually attacking them, thereby bypassing Article 5.
 
Raoul said:
If he thinks he can get away with it, he will do it. He has proven that repeatedly since the early 2000s. In many cases, he can foment trouble within countries without actually attacking them, thereby bypassing Article 5.
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None of that is in doubt IMO. He's always been a threat, it's always been obvious he'll try something...I mean FFS the amount of "experts" saying "oh hell never invade Ukraine" whilst he plonks a 10th of that massive army right on the border is simply braindead.

But the question still remains of what is done about it now. What are you suggesting is to be done right now to help Ukraine win and stop his march? What are the choices here?
 
Redlambs said:
But the question still remains of what is done about it now. What are you suggesting is to be done right now to help Ukraine win and stop his march? What are the choices here?
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This depends on Putin's actions. If things are going as they are, he will eventually run out of resources because of poor execution, logistics, and morale - all at a time when his domestic economy is going to collapse.

He will try to negotiate his way out of this by attempting to gain a concession from the Ukrainians; which could be anything ranging from the annexation of Donbas, Ukrainian recognition of Crimea as Russian territory, and some sort of written assurance that Ukraine doesn't join NATO.The Ukrainians, who are generally repelling and frustrating Russian advances - and with the knowledge that Putin's resources are not limitless - will not be incentivized to capitulate under terms Putin already demanded before the invasion. Putin will then have to make a choice as to whether he wants to double down on violence, use a thermobaric weapon, a WMD etc. in a desprate attempt to get the Ukrainans to surrender so he can force a negotiated settlement that is favorable to him, then call for a ceasefire under the pretext that he got something out of his "special operation".

NATO and Biden in particular, have to have a plan in place in case he uses a tactical nuke or chemical/biological weapon inside Ukraine. They can't use the same cowardly logic of "it would start WW3 if we intervened", because all it would do is incentivize Putin to continue doing what he's doing because he knows everyone is too scared to intervene. There has to be some sort of line of demarcation that is drawn (which should be the use of WMDs in Ukraine) that lets him know his actions will result in an immediate escalation.

NATO should also look at setting up a No Fly Zone in areas of Ukraine where there is no fighting and deconflict it with the Russians to prevent any accidents. This was done successfully in Syria and should be on the table in Ukraine as well.
 
VorZakone said:
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Be interesting to a)see how the shipments get to Ukraine and...
B) what the ramifications would be if Russia meddled with the shipments, as surely that would be in NATO territory?
 
Champ said:
Be interesting to a)see how the shipments get to Ukraine and...
B) what the ramifications would be if Russia meddled with the shipments, as surely that would be in NATO territory?
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I suspect the Ukrainians pick it up across the border and bring it back to Ukraine.
 
Redlambs said:
Is there a solid idea of how that happens? Seems like China are only distancing themselves now they realise the Russians have got themselves into bother, not because they have suddenly changed their vision for expansion.

I guess what I'm getting at is I just don't see a path for Nato or even individual countries like Poland/Germany to do anything other than continue to supply Ukraine and sanctions and I certainly don't think China will allow themselves to be manipulated into distancing, they'll only do what suits them. So I just don't really get what these vague suggestions of doing more really means?
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I am nowhere near an expert so I cannot give you a firm answer. I have been fortunate to speak to people from Chatham House and a couple of diplomats before. Given what little I know I think every country will have designed war games or similar where Russia and China have to be diplomatically separated.

And there will be some idea of what moves will take place and what 'incentives' will be offered. You are right that China won't be manipulated. They will be given incentives. Quite what or how far the West will go I'm not sure about. But the UK had to do something similar to stop the French selling missiles to Argentina during the Falklands War. That took negotiation and they were an ally.

I think there will be discussions in NATO about red lines. You are absolutely asking the right questions as they are the ones I am asking too.

Sorry for rambling.
 
VorZakone said:
I suspect the Ukrainians pick it up across the border and bring it back to Ukraine.
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Only the West border is free, and with Lviv under apparent shelling, I'd imagine the net is closing in on the supply route.
 
VorZakone said:
I suspect the Ukrainians pick it up across the border and bring it back to Ukraine.
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I'm surprised how little Russia appears to have been targeting arms and other shipments, the border with Poland and Slovakia is long but there's not that many major crossing points. One truck looks pretty much the same as another from the air I guess.
 
Raoul said:
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The last point is pretty interesting. So far we have been given clear indication that the rise of the right-wing in EU and US have been with Kremlin working in the shadows. Hopefully this war will help put and end to this.
 
matherto said:
You honestly think they didn't?
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The coalition went in with UN Security Council authorization because Iraq had literally invaded Kuwait. What false pretenses are there? Unless you don't know the difference between George HW Bush and George W Bush...
 
BarstoolProphet said:
The last point is pretty interesting. So far we have been given clear indication that the rise of the right-wing in EU and US have been with Kremlin working in the shadows. Hopefully this war will help put and end to this.
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Great point, and an issue I feel is left in the background,

The whole last 8 years of western politics have been dominated by russian influence, it's a Curtis documentary waiting to happen.
 
Champ said:
Great point, and an issue I feel is left in the background,

The whole last 8 years of western politics have been dominated by russian influence, it's a Curtis documentary waiting to happen.
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Russia basically killed all their subversion efforts with this invasion. Fewer people will take these populists serious anymore. That's my expectation anyway.
 
VorZakone said:
Russia basically killed all their subversion efforts with this invasion. Fewer people will take these populists serious anymore. That's my expectation anyway.
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Indeed, almost feel like this is a last throw of the dice by Russia/Putin with regards to their political outlook.
 
BarstoolProphet said:
The last point is pretty interesting. So far we have been given clear indication that the rise of the right-wing in EU and US have been with Kremlin working in the shadows. Hopefully this war will help put and end to this.
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That sounds very optimistic to me. Putin isn’t alone. China is just as interested in undermining western democracies. And The populists will still be hugely supported by Orban and his coalition.

And to be honest, EU’s reaction to Russia’s propaganda has been quite poor. The level of censure is ridiculous and very unhealthy for our democracies.That will undoubtedly backfire and play into the hands of conspiracy theorists and other extremists.
 
TMDaines said:
Channel 4 News also showed this tonight. Hard to describe anything like this as Ukrainian winning. The country is being slowly pummelled to destruction.
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It's not. This is happening to few cities close to Russian territory, where the Russian logistics is intact. They are not able to support their troops deeper into the country to perform this kind of attack. In most of Ukraine Russia is limited to careful airstrikes (and those are always risky as the air defense is still working), in some areas where Russian troops are active they have to be careful as they don't have working support lines and can't waste resources on massive shelling.
 
Raoul said:
Trouble is, Putin is operating without any restrictions which will allow him to do whatever he wants in Ukraine, and if that's allowed, there's nothing that will disincentivize him from going beyond Ukraine. There has to therefore be a strong line of demarcation that will result in NATO taking action before he completely decimates Ukraine and its population with chemical weapons, thermobarics, false flags involving some sort of WMD, or just general incompetence that results in a nuclear reactor spewing radiation across Europe. Biden and NATO are playing this a bit too safe at the moment, which is actually incentivizing Putin to be more brutal within Ukraine, because he suspects those watching him don't have the courage to stop him.
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What would be an appropriate response from the US?
Beyond strong sanctions that is.
 
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