Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I remember after the Crimea annexation, Putin went on a TV show where an old lady called in asking why he hasn't taken Alaska back yet.
Who's that guy? Today's version of General Orlov?
They can try occupying Venus while they're at it, but they will end up with Uranus.
Will the sanctions against Russia work?
Kyiv Independent reporter calls out G. Greenwald for being an ass-hat. 
Great thread on logistical problems the Russians face
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An optimistic view here. And a really good read.
There is optimism and there is delusion, I think a lot of that read is of the latter.
I don't see Russia backing down, in fact I think it will galvernise them and as we know, propaganda is a very strong tool that Russia will use on its people to increase support.
I also believe we've seen nothing yet of the level that Russia will increase attacks, this is a war Putin can't afford to lose and he will do anything to ensure he doesn't.
I'd love to think Russia's army will be defeated and Ukraine manages to hold out, but that is very unlikely given the fatigue and state the country will be in after months of shelling. There is only so much you can take from constant bombardment of missiles, day and night, week after week. That is being completely ignored in this guy's article.
I’ve just heard that Britain is finally opening its doors to refugees - does anyone else have confirmation? Better late than never I suppose.
Looking at the Russian logistics issues it is however possible that they won't be able to increase their attacks much, and also that they won't be able to sustain it for months. It is optimistic, but not impossible that Ukraine can repel them in a few weeks.
Not with soldiers but I suspect they can level the cities with artillery given enough time. Ukraine don't seem able to stop that, even if they can hunt tanks successfully and disrupt supply lines in general.
I think the West needs to step up their assistance before there's nothing left of the country.
What about the fatigue of Russian troops after months in the field, being killed and wounded day after day? There are no available troops to rotate/replace them with.
What do everyday Russians think about this war?
I found the "1420" channel in youtube. This channel has short videos where a young guy asks questions to people in Moscow. From this channel alone, I got these impressions about Russians:
1. They are like us.
2. They still support Putin.
I know that the first one sounds silly, but since I have never been to Russia, it was surprising for me that everything looks very much like any north european city. The second one was a big surprise. Most of them don't see a big problem, and certainly they don't feel ashamed about the destruction of Ukraine, the deaths, the 2 million refugees. Perhaps they don't know much about it? But still ... these people look sophisticated enough to get their news from the internet (see point 1)...
Now this channel is mostly about young people, and they live in Moscow, which is the capital. I'd bet that if you ask the same questions in a small city, 100% would support Putin and the war. And they would be against EU and the West in general.
Here is the link. Any suggestions for something else like this from Russia?
https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel/videos
I found the "1420" channel in youtube. This channel has short videos where a young guy asks questions to people in Moscow. From this channel alone, I got these impressions about Russians:
1. They are like us.
2. They still support Putin.
I know that the first one sounds silly, but since I have never been to Russia, it was surprising for me that everything looks very much like any north european city. The second one was a big surprise. Most of them don't see a big problem, and certainly they don't feel ashamed about the destruction of Ukraine, the deaths, the 2 million refugees. Perhaps they don't know much about it? But still ... these people look sophisticated enough to get their news from the internet (see point 1)...
Now this channel is mostly about young people, and they live in Moscow, which is the capital. I'd bet that if you ask the same questions in a small city, 100% would support Putin and the war. And they would be against EU and the West in general.
Here is the link. Any suggestions for something else like this from Russia?
https://www.youtube.com/c/1420channel/videos
But which cities? Apparently only a few close to the border, not every city in the country. Mariupol might get the Grozny treatment, but cities like Riwne or Lviv are safe against that, simply due to the distance. So Ukraine is able to stop the Russian advances, and is therefore saving huge parts of the country. Russia isn't even able to convincingly take Kiyv under fire, they are regrouping there for days now. That doesn't look like they can burn the city to the ground.
It won't be that easy. Artillery range is only 20-30km, that puts them well within striking range of a Ukrainian counter offensive or sporadic attacks especially when considering the size of the country. Plus forward observers won't be able to get close enough to direct accurate fire. The Ukrainian Army is well dug in and the people are living underground so it will be very hard to break through with artillery alone.
Aircraft are the bigger worry and why Ukraine is begging for a no fly zone. That won't happen but more anti aircraft kit would make a difference.
Iran sending missiles onto the US embassy
North Korea testing icbm's
China getting more vocal about Taiwan
India "accidentally" sending a missile into Pakistan
This could escalate into a period of huge world geopolitical issues... And that's without the potential for nuclear or other military escalation in Ukraine
North Korea testing icbm's
China getting more vocal about Taiwan
India "accidentally" sending a missile into Pakistan
This could escalate into a period of huge world geopolitical issues... And that's without the potential for nuclear or other military escalation in Ukraine
Indeed, that whole “End of History” theory didn’t exactly hold up well.
There's a frenzy of pushback against the status quo underway. Current US admin is perceived as hampered by incapable leadership, qualms about taking the fight back to the enemy, and presiding over a divided nation. After the fallout of a pandemic, it's use it or lose it for the world's authoritarian regimes.
What does he propose?
Not saying that it’s the right time, yet, to escalate this. But let’s not pretend there is no loss beyond the loss of life in Ukraine of doing nothing. It might not be today, this year, or even this decade. But every minute we don’t respond to the threat on our way of life, is a minute which boldens people like Putin. It’s not just about state lines and alliances by contract. We are rightly trying to find a solution which doesn’t cause all out war, but our biggest mistake was taking off the table a firm response if needed.
On the plus side Biden would be within his rights to declare martial law and arrest the Republicans who are pushing Russian bullshit on Fox wouldn't he? Could arrest Uncle Rupe as well for that matter, the evil old cnut.
No idea, but found it interesting to hear a German politician talk about escalation of measures, in whichever way he means
He's sending missiles into a city 50 miles from a NATO country... If there isn't any escalation at that then it's a matter of time till he starts shelling people at the crossing points... Is that the time to escalate ... Or do we have to wait till a missile crosses the border ... Or perhaps that's an accident so do we have to wait till several do... And by a few km just to be sure... Or do we just wait till he hits Warsaw?
If Ukraine wanting to join NATO was too much of a threat and in Putin's mind justifies rolling the tanks in then sending missiles to kill civilians 50 miles from a NATO country surely is enough for us to do something
I'm all for recognising st Petersburg as an independent state and launching a special military operation to protect them
Obviously not but putin can't be allowed to get away with how he has acted
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It's hard to summon up the imagination necessary to imagine Biden, Blinken, Harris etc issuing a clear red line after which actions a, b, and c will be taken in such a way that Putin or Lavrov would take them seriously. They'd smirk the threats off.
Gove said the government will begin a scheme where people will be offered £350pcm to host Ukrainian refugees. Minimum 6 months.
Website for sponsor sign up is going up tomorrow (Monday).
However it’s still on Patel and the home office to make it possible for them to come in by either waiving visa requirements or making it possible for them to obtain a visa easily. Nothing on that front yet afaik.
Source: Guardian article