Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Ukrainian parliament had already voted overwhelmingly to approve finalising an agreement with the EU. Putin told his puppet - Yanukovych - to stop it and instead go for closer ties with Russia.

When this triggered a popular uprising, Yanukovych fled the country. And then that same Parliament voted 328–0 in favour of removing Yanukovych from office.

It's abundantly clear that a big majority of Ukrainians supported the ousting of Yanukovych and thugs/goons that kept him power. If some brain-washed idiots died trying to turn the clock back to some mythic golden age of the USSR, then that's their bad choice.

You are glossing over the fact Graham and McCain were there in 2014 promising help and the US helped install an anti Russian government that ended up with 14,000 getting killed.
 
I think, it would be open for debate and interpretation.
Any deliberate attack/killing of a head of state/member of the government is an act of war.
But they are going to a state in open warfare. Russia could claim , it was a mistake (Ukrainian military target) or collateral damage.
Lets just say, it would be an incredibly risky and IMHO stupid move by Russia aka Putin to target them.
But on the other hand you can argue, that the visiting satesmen are taking a gamble with their lifes and a huge risk of further escalating the conflict.
My guess is, that the majority of non affected European NATO members would not outright declare war or support triggering Article 5. But I think, there would be further sanctions (no energy buys from Russia etc) and more direct support to the Ukraine.
Biggest question is, what would Poland do and which support from the USA would they have in their actions.
You could also argue the EUs move is a calculated snub to Putin. It is a sign that they believe Russia is too weak to do anything about it
 
Obviously Russia can not risk killing any EU states officials. They know they are coming and they will act accordingly.
 
Are we back to "US did lots of bad things so Russia can do it too" argument? Two wrongs do not make one right. Ukraine is a sovereign state. Zelenskyy won the most democratic elections in the history of all former USSR states. Nuclear warheads of Russia in Kaliningrad have always been much closer to NATO than the nuclear weapons of NATO to Russia. Ukraine are a sovereign nation with their own language and culture. It is up to Ukraine to decide whether they want to be members of EU and NATO. Ukranian governement had each and every right to get NATO membership ASAP, after having witnessed what has happened in Georgia and Crimea. Baltic states have been NATO states for years, and not a single millimeter of Russian soil have been occupied by NATO ever. Even after Crimea occupation, EU were very soft when it came to sanctions against Russia and were actively lobbying for Nordstream 2 which was going to increase their dependency on Russia's natural gas. So no hostility from NATO/EU at all. It has always been about Putin's pan to restore the great "Russian Empire". I hope he fails miserably and we get rid of this bloody maniac in the nearest future.
 
You could also argue the EUs move is a calculated snub to Putin. It is a sign that they believe Russia is too weak to do anything about it
Totally agree with this. So far everything the west has done seems weak and it feels like they are looking to avoid a war at all costs. Biden saying there would be no American and NATO involvement before the invasion probably factored into Putin's calculus regarding the war so, this move feels like a deliberate act by those presidents to signal to Russia that they are not afraid by putting themselves at risk.
 
You are glossing over the fact Graham and McCain were there in 2014 promising help and the US helped install an anti Russian government that ended up with 14,000 getting killed.

The bottom line is that the vast majority of Ukrainians want closer ties with the West, including the EU. They do not want to be part of Russia's "sphere of influence" for reasons that are spectacularly obvious.

No amount of weaselling on your part will change this bedrock fact. It's freedom, democracy and independence vs tyranny, brutality and oppression. Everything else is largely irrelevant.
 
Mongolia isn’t an active war zone though as far as I’m aware
Yeah, but Ukraine is also not one, at least accordingly to Russia. He can't have it both ways, by attacking the Polish,Czech, Slowenian delegation he would at least to have to acknowledge that Russia is at war with the Ukraine.
I'm no expert in international law, but deliberately attacking a delegation of a foreign state even in a war zone or a country at war with Russia is certainly high risk for him and there can be a case made, that this justifies a declaration of war.
 
Obviously Russia can not risk killing any EU states officials. They know they are coming and they will act accordingly.

I doubt Putin cares about that. If he's looking for a way of escalating - and he might well be given his desperation - this provides a potential way of doing it.
 
I doubt Putin cares about that. If he's looking for a way of escalating - and he might well be given his desperation - this provides a potential way of doing it.
Putin is already desperate to resolve the sh!te that he has created asap. He knows that his economy is dead and the longer the sanctions remain in place, the less likely he is to survive internally. Escalating this war further would speed up his end.
 
I doubt Putin cares about that. If he's looking for a way of escalating - and he might well be given his desperation - this provides a potential way of doing it.
I don't think that's remotely in his interest. Even if he's looking to escalate, it would be with the aim to gain something, i.e. pressure Ukraine into concessions, and/or intimidate Europe to not intervene. Allowing this delegation to be targeted would accomplish neither of those things.
 
I doubt Putin cares about that. If he's looking for a way of escalating - and he might well be given his desperation - this provides a potential way of doing it.
I don't think he wants to escalate. Most of his threats regarding other nations just appear as attempts to get them to stay away, don't think anyone will test him on them though.
 
You are glossing over the fact Graham and McCain were there in 2014 promising help and the US helped install an anti Russian government that ended up with 14,000 getting killed.

Why do you make it sound like all the casualties in Dombas are on the Russian speaking side? It's this way in all your messages mentioning this figure.

In those 14000, more than 10000 were fighters on both sides, the rest are civilians in both Ukraine controlled and DPR/LPR controlled cities and it's actually pretty evenly distributed.
 
Yeah he's done. He will never be accepted back into the civilized fold in any meaningful way, neither socially nor economically (or any other vaguely relevant way).

He has in the span of 3 weeks managed to destroy the mythology that Russia has a highly competent military worthy of competing with the great powers, and obliterated the Russian currency and economy. Even if he were to magically change his mind and suddenly grovel for a cease fire, the sanctions will remain in place until he is sufficiently weakened to where he can be overthrown from within.

This is my fear. When an agreement is eventually reached and he gets his token bit of victory land and withdraws his troops, the world will quickly forget and loosen it's grip on Russia's neck. These sanctions and controls need to remain in place as long as the current regime is there. It will be costly to everybody though and I'm not sure the political appetite will remain for long after the war is over.
 
This is my fear. When an agreement is eventually reached and he gets his token bit of victory land and withdraws his troops, the world will quickly forget and loosen it's grip on Russia's neck. These sanctions and controls need to remain in place as long as the current regime is there. It will be costly to everybody though and I'm not sure the political appetite will remain for long after the war is over.
It depends on who gets elected next in these countries, most importantly the US.
 
This is my fear. When an agreement is eventually reached and he gets his token bit of victory land and withdraws his troops, the world will quickly forget and loosen it's grip on Russia's neck. These sanctions and controls need to remain in place as long as the current regime is there. It will be costly to everybody though and I'm not sure the political appetite will remain for long after the war is over.

I personally don't think the sanctions will go away as fast as they would be needed to save the Russian economy in time. Western leaders probably see the sanctions as a way to finally get rid of him and will want to leave them in place to further weaken him domestically.

Either way, the dye has been cast.

 
I know very little about the region, but I was watching a youtuber called Bald and Bankrupt, who often visits Eastern Europe and the former USSR. He talks to people and a lot of people, especially older people talk about how life was better under the USSR. This is usually in places that used to be subsidised by the USSR and since it's collapse have fallen into decay and poor governance.

Wasn't that Bald and Bankrupt guy the one who somebody on Reddit or somewhere came up with a theory he was some sort of murderer/rapist/trafficker or something? Not that that's particularly relevant to whether your point is true or not, just saying I seem to remember there may have been reason to believe he's not a goodie?
 
Wasn't that Bald and Bankrupt guy the one who somebody on Reddit or somewhere came up with a theory he was some sort of murderer/rapist/trafficker or something? Not that that's particularly relevant to whether your point is true or not, just saying I seem to remember there may have been reason to believe he's not a goodie?

Yeah. Idk about the details. I think it's speculation?
 
Wasn't that Bald and Bankrupt guy the one who somebody on Reddit or somewhere came up with a theory he was some sort of murderer/rapist/trafficker or something? Not that that's particularly relevant to whether your point is true or not, just saying I seem to remember there may have been reason to believe he's not a goodie?
He's a dickhead, he was in Ukraine when the fighting broke out and no doubt put himself there on purpose for views and not for any noble cause.

I don't know whether the allegations about him are true but I saw that he was on a refugee train in one of his videos, probably taking up space that another person could have used.
 
This is my fear. When an agreement is eventually reached and he gets his token bit of victory land and withdraws his troops, the world will quickly forget and loosen it's grip on Russia's neck. These sanctions and controls need to remain in place as long as the current regime is there. It will be costly to everybody though and I'm not sure the political appetite will remain for long after the war is over.

I think we are beyond the point where there will be any normalisation of relations with Putin. At some point, of course, Europe and, in particular, Russia have to move back to a more constructive relationship (you can’t change your geographical location) but that won’t happen until there’s a new face in the Kremlin.
 
bloody hell that’s brave. Presumably Russia won’t dare touch them.
I believe they re still shelling Kyiv so unless they are going to stop completely or unless they are sure where they are and are confident in their accuracy then anything is possible (especially with a bunch of conscripts and the "fog of war")

I suspect they didn't intentionally down MH17... but things happen quickly and things go wrong
 
I don't think he wants to escalate. Most of his threats regarding other nations just appear as attempts to get them to stay away, don't think anyone will test him on them though.

His historical pattern of behaviour suggests that he opts for escalation over defeat - and he's facing defeat. That doesn't mean he'll necessarily choose to escalate by militarily attacking these travelling EU politicians, but it's not impossible.