Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I'm not an expert and only became interested in Russian power structure due to the war, so not really an educated opinion. But from what I've read, Putin's inner circle and the second most powerful institution in Russia are the siloviki. Former KGB officers like him who are also obsessed with reestablishing the glory of the Soviet Union. Apparently some of them contributed a lot to Putin's world view and are just as delusional as him. Thing is, this is seen primarily as Putin's war so they could possibly retreat without it looking like their personal defeat.
Personally I believe assassinating Putin is a really, really risky idea. It might unite Russia against the West again and could be understood as a declaration of war. It could as well lead to the system imploding because everything revolves around him and the siloviki alone possibly aren't strong enough to keep it all together. It's better to create tension, IMO. The sanctions will take their toll on Russia. Even without them Russia would have a hard time supplying the war but with them it'll be impossible. With increasing pressure, even the elites will turn on each other since they still have their own interests in mind. It's by no means a sustainable or robust way of running a state and now that it is really put to test, it will show.
I also believe a "death by a thousand stings", especially if those stings come from within, is less likely to escalate the war than an assassination.
Yes, really.
As I said, Russia does not have enough troops to even encircle the vast perimeter of Kyiv, far less take a city where, in an urban environment, the general rule is that attackers will die at six times the rate of of defenders.
Indeed, the latest reports suggest that, due to Ukrainian counter-attacks, the Russians have been pushed back further away from Kyiv and forced to dig in defensive positions. It may even be that this large Russian army in the north is stuck, not even able to retreat back to where they came from.
You seem to be unware of the scale of Russian losses. On even a conservative estimate, 30,000 troops are now out of action: dead, wounded, captured, surrendered or deserted.
Edit: The Russian invasion of Ukraine is "pretty demoralised, pretty stuck and pretty stalled," the former UK head of Defence Intelligence says.
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The invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq did need popular support in the US to get started, so yes the average american also bears that responsibility.
I wonder if there are examples in neighbouring countries they could look to? I wonder.
I would 100% hold the citizens of those countries responsible, even more so than Russian ones.
Not only did the wars go ahead from both of those countries, both of them then proceeded to re-elect the leaders who had taken them into war.
Also have found some of thr discourse around the Chechnyans slightly weird.
First of all being lumped in with Syrians. I appreciate that Kadyrov essentially leads his own kingdom there but they are still Russians. It's therefore not this uniquely strange thing that Russians are called up in a Russian war.
Secondly this building up of them into almost semi mythical figures. They're men, normal men. Perhaps more used to hard situations than the average man in Europe but men nontheless. We're not talking about 100 BC anymore, wars aren't fought based on strength and swords and Spears. You may not even see your enemy before they take you out.
First of all being lumped in with Syrians. I appreciate that Kadyrov essentially leads his own kingdom there but they are still Russians. It's therefore not this uniquely strange thing that Russians are called up in a Russian war.
Secondly this building up of them into almost semi mythical figures. They're men, normal men. Perhaps more used to hard situations than the average man in Europe but men nontheless. We're not talking about 100 BC anymore, wars aren't fought based on strength and swords and Spears. You may not even see your enemy before they take you out.
Why would he do that? If Putin knew he would need a full month to conquer Ukraine, he would never start the whole thing. It was a blunder, but now he can't just quit because everyone would want his head.
If Putin is eliminated, all Russians will blame everything on Putin and they will all swear that they never ever supported Putin, never ever liked Putin not even a little bit, never ever knew who Putin was, same as Stalin.
I guess a good number must buy into the propaganda or at least get behind their troops if they're at war.
Plenty are 100% believing every pro-Ukraine tweet, as if both sides don't misinform and distort during war. Some just believe what they want to I guess.
Agree here. Assuming that you can win a war on the idea that your men are culturally "tougher" has proven to be a folly every time at least in the 20th century. The distinction that most counts is motivated and then experienced/well trained. If the Chechens are that because of their experiences in the late 90s and maybe since, then they can make a bigger contribution than another average unit. Other than that, a bullet or shrapnel does the same thing to an elite soldier as it does to a fresh conscript.
Byelorussia will be the next nation to drop out of Russia's orbit and look westward.
When Ukraine joins the EU, more and more Byelorussian people will look at their neighbour and get ideas. At some point there will be an uprising, supported by Ukraine, and Russia will be so weakened militarily and economically by this current war and the ongoing sanctions that they won't be able to stop it.
When Ukraine joins the EU, more and more Byelorussian people will look at their neighbour and get ideas. At some point there will be an uprising, supported by Ukraine, and Russia will be so weakened militarily and economically by this current war and the ongoing sanctions that they won't be able to stop it.
Jippy, problem is Ukrainian misinformation is harmless essentially (mostly with the intention to rise awareness and not let some other stupid news to dominate in the west media), it does not stop the destruction and Ukrainian genocide which we’re seeing, they’re the ones getting occupied not Russia.
Ukrainians throwing this out there to create chaos in Putin's mind?
And you have clowns still thinking that’s something about Nato or chemical weapons.
Putin just couldn’t stand a flourishing Ukraine which pivoted to the west on its doorstep, it would basically expose him domestically even amongst the most stupid.Unless the new Putin were willing to hold an actual free election in the country and step down when the time comes, I don't think having yet another (younger) FSB guy in charge would make things any better. I think we ought to keep the sanctions up if that were the case really.
You wouldn't warn Putin if this was legit. You'd just hope it would happen behind the scenes. Therefore it's bullshit.
And you have clowns still thinking that’s something about Nato or chemical weapons.
The money that will pump in for the rebuild will let Ukraine thrive anyway in the coming years I should think.
Well said, this is spot on.
I heard they're like if Keanu Reeves had joined the avengers, all 1.4 million of them. Sobering thought ey.
I wonder to what degree Ukrainian agents inside Russia have penetrated the Russian security and intelligence services? Being able to more easily recruit agents who speak Russian like a native, and knowing the inside tracks on Russia probably better than any Western agents can, must be distinct advantages.
Serious amount of disinformation being put out by the Ukrainians so far in this war, no reason to believe a word coming out of Kiev. Obviously Moscow is probably worse but I’m really wary of our view and expectations of this crisis being shaped by online algorithms funneling an overwhelmingly pro-Ukrainian and by extension narrow and distorted picture through to us.
Pardon my ignorance, but how common is the bolded bit among citizens of countries that were former soviets? The Ukrainian family I’m sponsoring also told me their mother tongue is Russian. Not that it matters of course but I guess I wasn’t expecting it.
Quite common. Having been born in USSR it was always about Russian language prevailing other languages. It was a shame not to speak Russian but it was not that of a big deal of not being able to speak the language of your nationality.
Probably very common. In my travels throughout Ukraine (including Crimea), I actually didn't encounter anyone who didn't speak Russian as a first language. That's obviously not to say they agreed with Russian politics. A majority of Russian speakers seem to be in the east and south.
These are Psy-Ops that take place pretty regularly during war. They are more so military operations to influence outcomes than attempts to inform as we may be accustomed to by way of routine press reports. Ukrainian intel are well aware of Putin's extreme paranoia, so if this helps to destabilize him amongst his inner circle, then it will be viewed as a success - even if it doesn't immediately yield any tangible policy changes.
Putin must be absolutely bricking it right now after a month in which everything imaginable has gone wrong for him, so this sort of destabilizing narrative will only make things worse.
It is, they don't care.
The BBC reports:
"Ukrainian defense officials have claimed that Russia's Kostroma 331st Guards Airborne Regiment has been destroyed by its forces.
In an update posted to the Ukrainian General Staff's Facebook page, officials said that the regiment had been involved in engagements around the capital city of Kyiv and that just one member of the unit had survived an encounter with Ukrainian troops.
The update also claimed that the commandant's office in the Russian city of Belgorod was investigating a case against 10 servicemen of the 138th motorised rifle brigade who mutinied after taking heavy losses during an offensive in the eastern city of Kharkiv.
The BBC cannot independently verify these claims."
"Ukrainian defense officials have claimed that Russia's Kostroma 331st Guards Airborne Regiment has been destroyed by its forces.
In an update posted to the Ukrainian General Staff's Facebook page, officials said that the regiment had been involved in engagements around the capital city of Kyiv and that just one member of the unit had survived an encounter with Ukrainian troops.
The update also claimed that the commandant's office in the Russian city of Belgorod was investigating a case against 10 servicemen of the 138th motorised rifle brigade who mutinied after taking heavy losses during an offensive in the eastern city of Kharkiv.
The BBC cannot independently verify these claims."
Key Takeaways:
- We now assess that the initial Russian campaign to seize Ukraine’s capital and major cities and force regime change has failed;
- Russian forces continue efforts to restore momentum to this culminated campaign, but those efforts will likely also fail;
- Russian troops will continue trying to advance to within effective artillery range of the center of Kyiv, but prospects for their success are unclear;
- The war will likely descend into a phase of bloody stalemate that could last for weeks or months;
- Russia will expand efforts to bombard Ukrainian civilians in order to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting (at which the Russians will likely fail);
- The most dangerous current Russian advance is from Kherson north toward Kryvyi Rih in an effort to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to surround or take Kryvyi Rih in the coming days, and may not be able to do so at all without massing much larger forces for the effort than they now have available on that axis;
- The Russians appear to have abandoned plans to attack Odesa at least in the near term.
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This is a good timeline and visualization of the foreshadowing by Russia that they were going to bomb hospitals and the bombing of the maternity hospital in Mauriopol. It's also why all of their warnings about chemical weapons, nuclear weapons, and terrorist attacks make it obvious that Russia is considering doing all of these things.
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/03/europe/mariupol-maternity-hospital-attack/index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2022/03/europe/mariupol-maternity-hospital-attack/index.html
If that’s true, that’s a big blow to the Russians. I know the 331st commander was confirmed KIA a couple days ago. That unit is considered to be elite.
Quietly floated sounds like an offer they can not refuse. At least hopefully. Ukraine having the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile would be almost as good as a no fly zone.
Turkey aren't doing that at all. Why would they be happy to accept any shit for it, also that then feels like a more blatant NATO intervention doesn't it?
What do you mean by a more blatant intervention? NATO have been supplying tons of arms already along with intelligence.
As opposed to all the other weapons NATO countries have given Ukraine?
The Ukrainians are already receiving Stingers and Javelins from NATO, and Turkey has been supplying them with the Bayraktar drones they are using to hit Russian ground targets, so this wouldn't be anything new. It would however make it harder for the Russians to fly over Ukraine, which would ostensibly give the Ukrainians aspects of the no fly zone they've wanted from the beginning.