Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Frosty said:
Israel blocked Ukraine from buying Pegasus spyware, fearing Russia’s anger

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/23/israel-ukraine-pegasus-spyware-russia

Israel blocked Ukraine from buying NSO Group’s Pegasus spyware for fear that Russian officials would be angered by the sale of the sophisticated hacking tool to a regional foe, according to people familiar with the matter.

The revelation, following a joint investigation by the Guardian and Washington Post, offers new insight into the way Israel’s relationship with Russia has at times undermined Ukraine’s offensive capabilities – and contradicted US priorities.

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has been critical of Israel’s stance since Russia launched its full and bloody invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, saying in a recent address before members of Israel’s Knesset that Israel would have to “give answers” on why it had not given weapons to Ukraine or applied sanctions on Russians
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I don’t understand, Israel literally depends on the US for everything but they don’t seem bothered about biting the hand that feeds them. Russia is basically on the same side as them in Syria, however Russia doesn’t stand a chance in a conventional encounter with Israel based on their ability to wage war in Ukraine

I can kind of understand India’s position of walking a tightrope, but Israel is being pathetic. Maybe they just don’t want the world’s scorn turned on them, as questions will be asked of their own attitude to killing civilians.

Lots of Russians in Israel, might be that too.
 
the_cliff said:
So what's the alternative ?

Coal ?

Iran ?

The US wants to get back in Maduro's good books and wants the nuclear deal with Iran done to get Iranian oil back on the market but the Iranians don't seem too keen. Saudi and OPEC aren't playing ball and neither is China and that's just the oil. What about the natural gas ?
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Europe can actually forgo Russian gas entirely, it all depends on the price it is prepared to pay. But I have not seen any estimations that say that it would trigger some horrible unprecedented crisis. Recession, yes - but for instance for Germany (one of the most Russian-gas-dependent countries) the worst case estimate is 3% fall in GDP and every German on average would be poorer by 1000 EUR IN TOTAL over all the crisis time (so nor per month/year), which is bearable (milder than covid of 2008-09 crises) as long as the government can help the poorest.

It is not that it is not enough gas in the world without Russia, the price will just spike a lot until the alternative sources are developed - maybe you would need temporary rationing to make sure households have it and the industries that use gas heavily like chemistry bear the brunt - but economists disagree on whether rationing would be needed. Any solution would be a combination of increased liquefied natural gas imports from the US/Qatar etc via sea (problem is that you need a couple of years to build terminals), more renewables and energy efficiency. If Europe really commits and is prepared to endure pain for a couple of years it can do it. Whether a complete ban would stop Putin is another question, of course.
 
MTF said:
What's crazy to me (with my limited understanding) is how the Russian ground forces seemingly cannot exploit any penetration. It makes sense not to waste resources on taking a town like Kharkiv if you want to get past it, advance all the way to like Dnipro, and then basically cut off the Ukranian forces in the Donbass. But they haven't shown the ability or intention to make those thrusts. It's like war in slow motion, as if they didn't study their own Great Patriotic War.
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See my post above about the BTG’s limitations. It could explain why they’re unable to exploit gains… they could be losing too many men / material in the initial assault to be able to execute any kind of immediate follow up operations.
 
Max_United said:
Europe can actually forgo Russian gas entirely, it all depends on the price it is prepared to pay. But I have not seen any estimations that say that it would trigger some horrible unprecedented crisis. Recession, yes - but for instance for Germany (one of the most Russian-gas-dependent countries) the worst case estimate is 3% fall in GDP and every German on average would be poorer by 1000 EUR IN TOTAL over all the crisis time (so nor per month/year), which is bearable (milder than covid of 2008-09 crises) as long as the government can help the poorest.

It is not that it is not enough gas in the world without Russia, the price will just spike a lot until the alternative sources are developed - maybe you would need temporary rationing to make sure households have it and the industries that use gas heavily like chemistry bear the brunt - but economists disagree on whether rationing would be needed. Any solution would be a combination of increased liquefied natural gas imports from the US/Qatar etc via sea (problem is that you need a couple of years to build terminals), more renewables and energy efficiency. If Europe really commits and is prepared to endure pain for a couple of years it can do it. Whether a complete ban would stop Putin is another question, of course.
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Which are all very costly and would definitely push energy to a stage where it effects the average person more than 1000 EUR over the crisis time. I mean gas prices surged 34% just after the announcement that he wanted to sell gas in roubles.

Imagine when there's no Russian gas in Europe.
 
the_cliff said:
Which are all very costly and would definitely push energy to a stage where it effects the average person more than 1000 EUR over the crisis time. I mean gas prices surged 34% just after the announcement that he wanted to sell gas in roubles.

Imagine when there's no Russian gas in Europe.
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Renewables and energy efficiency measures are cheaper than gas...they don't require any fuel for one thing.
 
TwoSheds said:
Renewables and energy efficiency measures are cheaper than gas...they don't require any fuel for one thing.
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They aren't actually cheaper, they're about the same price.

But they also require fossil fuels to make.
 
The Firestarter said:
Terrorist tactics.
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Yep. It was also an Al-Qaeda tactic against Shi’a in Iraq. Detonate a VBIED in a heavily populated civilian area, wait for first responders to arrive, then detonate a second VBIED nearby. Mass carnage every time.
 
the_cliff said:
Which are all very costly and would definitely push energy to a stage where it effects the average person more than 1000 EUR over the crisis time. I mean gas prices surged 34% just after the announcement that he wanted to sell gas in roubles.

Imagine when there's no Russian gas in Europe.
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All of this was included in 1000 EUR estimate already, they of course considered not only the direct price effects, would have been pretty amateurish to do so :) The one-time increase (it was close to 20% actually) does not translate to automatic increase in what Europe pays, not all the gas is bought on the spot market, some is bought via long-term contracts which do not correspond to current price one-to-one. Plus as the energy sources are replaced, gas prices would go down. But above all, historically it wasn't energy price shocks that triggered the biggest recessions like Great Depression/2008-2009/covid. 70s recessions/stagflation was bad but not as bad - and let us not forget that oil prices were jumping at least as much as now if not more at the time. My point is that we are likely talking about average-sized recession as a price to pay at worst but not some massive collapse.
 
The BBC reports:

"British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to announce on Thursday that the UK will provide Ukraine with about 6,000 extra missiles.

At the Nato and G7 leaders' meetings in Brussels, Johnson will also unveil £25m ($33m) of funding to help pay Ukrainian soldiers and pilots.

The UK government will also provide £4.1m for the BBC World Service to help support its Ukrainian and Russian language services in the region.

"The United Kingdom will work with our allies to step up military and economic support to Ukraine, strengthening their defences as they turn the tide in this fight," Johnson said.

"One month into this crisis, the international community faces a choice. We can keep the flame of freedom alive in Ukraine, or risk it being snuffed out across Europe and the world."

Britain said the new package will come on top of around 4,000 missiles already provided by the UK to Ukrainian forces.

The latest funding is in addition to £400m already committed in humanitarian and economic aid, said UK officials."
 
Carolina Red said:
That sound you just heard was Fox News and the Trumplican Party shitting a collective brick
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Let's hope so - Tucker Carlson in particular, when they reveal nice little monthly "additions" to his bank account.
 
GlastonSpur said:
Let's hope so - Tucker Carlson in particular, when they reveal nice little monthly "additions" to his bank account.
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I wouldn't have expected to ever be a paper trail about these payments, however if we are to extrapolate from the Russian competence on display so far, it wouldn't surprise me one bit.
 
It wouldn't surprise me if a fair few of the Anonymous hackers are actually employees of GCHQ (signals intelligence, cyber security and more), an organisation which is known to have very sophisticated hacking capabilities.

After all, an "anarchist" collective like Anonymous would be the perfect front/disguise for such involvement, allowing government denial of any such activity.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Fecking pieces of shit.:mad::mad::mad::mad:

Such people are the type deserving to have their balls cut off and shoved into their throats after they're dead, all regardless of which army they serve in.
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If you go to her feed, she posted a pic of one of the Russian soldiers who did it.
 
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