I think its pretty clear, at least from a US perspective.
- Russian troops out of Ukraine and back to pre-invasion positions (at a minimum).
- Continued sanctions that keep the economic boot to Putin's throat to destabilize him from within
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I think its pretty clear, at least from a US perspective.
- Russian troops out of Ukraine and back to pre-invasion positions (at a minimum).
- Continued sanctions that keep the economic boot to Putin's throat to destabilize him from within
Wow, if true that'd be a huge story.
The jury is still out. Thread here analysing it, lots of points suggesting fake. This would not be unprecedented for Russia if we remember the elaborate staged videos in the days running up to the invasion.
The biggest news today. G7 (EU+North America) has said it will not pay Russia for gas in rubles. Russia has replied that it will now shut off gas supplies as they will not supply "for free". The Russians are deadly serious, too, imo. Not saying the G7 should fold, but the economic fallout is going to be immense.
Bellingcat reporting it
Polonium FC
Holy shit
The bigger fallout will be on the Russians, because they will lose income that they can now ill-afford to lose, whilst the European economies are far stronger than that of Russia and so better able to absorb and withstand the economic pressure. It will also accelerate moves towards European independence from Russian energy supplies.
This is now fully subtitled for English-speaking viewers. Will watch second half later.
Yes, this is true, but Russia is already on a war-footing for the duration of the Ukrainian invasion. EU alternatives to Russian energy are at least two years away. It will be catastrophic in the economic short-term unless they reach a "third way" which seems unlikely as the entire point of the ruble demand is to say to European countries that the sanctions on the Russian economy are illegitimate. Russia, meanwhile, will move to the Asian market. Already constructing new pipelines in China.
Christ.
Taken from Reddit comments:
This feels like a predictably botched attempt at using Roman to unwittingly carry poison for Zelinskyy.
They've exported gas to China for some time now..It's nothing new.
Yeah, I know, but with new piplines it is the volume which is new. That goes for other Asian markets, too.
Also:
Square this:
With this:
The G7 should be able to:
-Use their reserves
-Buy more from other countries (logistics issues aside)
-Diversify their energy matrix
-Use a little less gas
On the other hand, how is Russia going to substitute the money income? Are China or India going to absorb all of the remaining demand AKA pay the same for resources they don't need?
They can use reserves without a problem but what other countries? OPEC sets the controls and Iran isn't out of the dark yet plus Venezuela is only in the process of coming back online (plus Russia has the largest foreign stake in proven Venezuelean oil reserves). Diversification will take time and using less gas amounts to rationing. Political suicide (ask Carter).
There have been many jokes about how Ruble is collapsing and people won’t be able to buy anything with it but it’s mostly repeated by people who haven’t really kept track. After initial impact there’s very little in that already, Zloty has basically lost 8% vs Dollar since the start of the war and to see Rubel drop by 20% is quite insignificant compared to what many anticipated.
I think many have overestimated the extent of harm sanctions are going to do to Russian economy. It will cripple it, there will be slowdown but it may not be nearly as catastrophic as advertised because many will still be finding loopholes to trade with Russia.
Keep dreaming, Russian new pipeline to China won’t be ready for at least another decade. They’ll crash hard. It will also be sold at a massive discount, probably just about enough to breakeven.
Right now the Pound has lost more than 5% versus the Ruble in the last month.
The ruble is maintaining its value due to the draconian controls put upon it. You are allowed to buy, but selling for foreign currency is made extremely difficult, if not impossible. This generates an artificial demand for the currency.
While these controls do maintain the value of the ruble in the short term, it makes economic growth very difficult.
While these controls do maintain the value of the ruble in the short term, it makes economic growth very difficult.
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Well China does need it they'll take up the slack for sure. LNG is only a tiny portion of their energy mix and they plan to make it a sizeable portion as it's the best route to meet climate targets.
In the short term Europe has gas reserves, which should last a few months at least, maybe more. It's spring now, so the need for heating decreases. Also Russia has large foreign currency reserves but half of that is frozen and the rest won't last indefinitely to both prop up their currency and keep the war efforts going. Overall I think Europe's gas reserves will probably outlast the Russians' timeline for this war. Without gas income presumably that financial time constraint will become even more pressing.
In order to find market share, Russia is now forced to sell its energy products at discounted prices compared to those from elsewhere.
I was thinking exactly that. Demand for gas should be decreasing heading into the summer.
Can Russia afford to cut its money tree until next winter? Can it even fund the war that long?
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A win win for China. I said sometime ago in the climate thread that they'd be upheaval as China tries to secure more gas, as it happens Europe has wilfully turned away from Russian gas anyway. The US wins, China wins. Europe loses.
That said gas pales to the export value of oil and I'm not sure they'll take that slack up. India might.
Well if the g7 are going to buy more from other countries and there isn't currently a huge over supply then India and China are going to have to buy more from Russia aren't they?
But why would anyone think the rouble would have collapsed yet - we know Putin was stockpiling wealth for this very scenario? The question is how much is the ruble being propped up by reserves and for how long can it go on - the graph will look like a cliff edge if we ever find out the answer.
I’m not sure I saw anyone warning that the Ruble would hold its ground and even bounce back a degree a month in, before suddenly tumbling at a later date. Happy to be corrected, as I am a bit miffed that the sanctions haven’t more damage to their currency in the short term.
Some Tom Clancy shit going on here.
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