Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

TMDaines said:
Not sure whose reputation has fallen further. The Russian military’s in general, or specifically the Kadyrovites’:



The top content is “Vanilla ISIS”.
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Doesnt it end with an incident? I know absolutely nothing about weapons, but the last guy fires and his weapon catches fire at the end, he then lowers it and something drops out of it. He stops smiling and the video cuts. The first guy seems to use the same kind of weapon but the rear end doesnt catch fire when he fires it.
 
Denis79 said:
Completely and utterly wrong. You do know the the war raged for almost 9 years in Bosnia before NATO intervened? Yugoslavia (Serbia) did not defeat Bosnia nor the other way around. Control of areas changed hands almost weekly for years, it was a no win for both sides.
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The entire war lasted less than four years, so I am not sure where does the 9 years come from.

Additionally, NATO intervened in Bosnan war, by introducing a no-fly zone, shooting down Serbian jets, and occasionally bombing Serbian positions. Of course, it was nowhere as a big intervention as in the war of Kosovo, where NATO essentially did all the decisive fighting.
 
"(Reuters) - Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 15.66% as of March 25, its highest since September 2015 and up from 14.53% a week earlier, the economy ministry said on Wednesday, as the battered rouble sent prices soaring amid unprecedented Western sanctions.

Inflation in Russia has accelerated sharply in the past few weeks as the rouble's fall to an all-time low boosted demand for a wide range of goods, from food staples to cars, on expectations that their prices will rise even higher.

In February, annual inflation in Russia was at 9.15%."

https://money.usnews.com/investing/...limbs-above-15-6-highest-since-september-2015
 
TMDaines said:
Not sure whose reputation has fallen further. The Russian military’s in general, or specifically the Kadyrovites’:



The top content is “Vanilla ISIS”.
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I don’t understand why the they came with a reputation anyway personally.

Some talking up these units like the SEALs or SAS. Bloody laughable.
 
Revan said:
The entire war lasted less than four years, so I am not sure where does the 9 years come from.

Additionally, NATO intervened in Bosnan war, by introducing a no-fly zone, shooting down Serbian jets, and occasionally bombing Serbian positions. Of course, it was nowhere as a big intervention as in the war of Kosovo, where NATO essentially did all the decisive fighting.
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9 years of skirmishes within ex-Yugoslavia. There was never a proper peace within the country between 1991and 2000/2001.

I fought in that whole war and the statement that the Serbian forces would have easily won it is untrue. Villages and strategic positions changed hands constantly. There were uprisings early 90's in Kosovo aswell without Serbs gaining control. NATO made no difference in Bosnia, maybe in the movies they did.
 
TMDaines said:
Not sure whose reputation has fallen further. The Russian military’s in general, or specifically the Kadyrovites’:



The top content is “Vanilla ISIS”.
Click to expand...


Are these the same guys that could apparently steamroll any army in Europe?
 
TheReligion said:
I don’t understand why the they came with a reputation anyway personally.

Some talking up these units like the SEALs or SAS. Bloody laughable.
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'Chechens' do generally have a good reputation for being hardened effective fighters, as reported by various encounters with the US in Afghanistan etc. These being the Chechens that wouldn't be seen dead helping Russia in any way shape or form.

These sorry excuses for soldiers under Kadyrov appear to be tryin to live off that reputation.
 
Hopefully the leadership of Georgia can finally decide whose side they are on:

 
These referendums to be independent states, and then to join the Russian Federation, are a complete nonsense and a piss-take of the democratic process.
 
Can someone who understands accounting and finance better than me explain this whole “paying in rubles” malarkey and its significance?

I understand having to buy rubles on the market to pay say Gasprom for gas, will bolster demand for the ruble and therefore its dollar exchange rate. But if Gazprom has an account in Euros or Dollars and you pay them in those currencies instead, they can still use those foreign currency reserves to buy ruble on the market which will have the same effect. Whether it’s the German govt buying Rubles or Gazprom… it makes no difference surely?

All you have to do is force your own Russian state companies to hold minimal reserves in foreign currency and convert everything else to rubles. What am I missing?

EDIT: I understand that if you have to pay in another currency your payment size might depend on exchange rates and thus you might want to buy swaps contracts from financial institutions to minimise your exposure to risk from adverse currency fluctuations. But still…
 
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Jotun said:
Whaaat? You are mixing up Croatian and Bosnian independence war with Kosovo war. Nato did not intervene in Bosnia or Croatia (except in an advisory role, towards the end).
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I can't believe what you said went unchallenged. It's reality defying....

Have a read at the wiki page for the NATO intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina. NATO got involved militarily in 1994 with the Operation Deny Flight which closed the airspace over Bosnia and that involved shooting down 4 Serbian jets. It was followed with Operation Deliberate Force which was a sustained bombing campaign against Bosnian Serb targets. It involved 400 planes, dropping around 1000 bombs including (controversially) ~20 depleted uranium bombs.

Those events preceded the Dayton Peace Agreement.
 
MadMike said:
Can someone who understands accounting and finance better than me explain this whole “paying in rubles” malarkey and its significance?

I understand having to buy rubles on the market to pay say Gasprom for gas, will bolster demand for the ruble and therefore its dollar exchange rate. But if Gazprom has an account in Euros or Dollars and you pay them in those currencies instead, they can still use those foreign currency reserves to buy ruble on the market which will have the same effect. Whether it’s the German govt buying Rubles or Gazprom… it makes no difference surely?

All you have to do is force your own Russian state companies to hold minimal reserves in foreign currency and convert everything else to rubles. What am I missing?

EDIT: I understand that if you have to pay in another currency your payment size might depend on exchange rates and thus you might want to buy swaps contracts from financial institutions to minimise your exposure to risk from adverse currency fluctuations. But still…
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That's what the Italian PM has said was their interpretation from discussions with Putin. It's an indirect mechanism.

I think the paying in non-dollar would be more about reducing dollar dependency rather than supporting the ruble. They changed their contracts post Iran sanctions to stipulate non dollar payments if necessary, although no idea of the clauses which I'm sure are many.
 
GlastonSpur said:
"(Reuters) - Annual inflation in Russia accelerated to 15.66% as of March 25, its highest since September 2015 and up from 14.53% a week earlier, the economy ministry said on Wednesday, as the battered rouble sent prices soaring amid unprecedented Western sanctions.

Inflation in Russia has accelerated sharply in the past few weeks as the rouble's fall to an all-time low boosted demand for a wide range of goods, from food staples to cars, on expectations that their prices will rise even higher.

In February, annual inflation in Russia was at 9.15%."

https://money.usnews.com/investing/...limbs-above-15-6-highest-since-september-2015
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Not particularly high if true. Poland is at 12% without war or sanctions.
 
MadMike said:
I can't believe what you said went unchallenged. It's reality defying....

Have a read at the wiki page for the NATO intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina. NATO got involved militarily in 1994 with the Operation Deny Flight which closed the airspace over Bosnia and that involved shooting down 4 Serbian jets. It was followed with Operation Deliberate Force which was a sustained bombing campaign against Bosnian Serb targets. It involved 400 planes, dropping around 1000 bombs including (controversially) ~20 depleted uranium bombs.

Those events preceded the Dayton Peace Agreement.
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Yes, you are right. I stand corrected. NATO got more involved towards the end of the war.
 
Russia pretty much admitting defeat on all three of their Kyiv fronts it seems. Multiple reports today of them retreating from Bucha/Hostamel and from Nova Basan to the east after a heavy defeat.
 
Sarni said:
Not particularly high if true. Poland is at 12% without war or sanctions.
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Yes, but did Poland's rate rise by more than 1% in a single week? Let's see how the two rates compare in 2 or 3 months from now.
 
UK significantly increases the range-type of weapons to be supplied to Ukraine.

 
German Chancellor Scholz via Twitter:

Russian gas deliveries are paid for in euros and dollars in accordance with existing contracts. This is the case, it will remain the case, and I also made this clear yesterday in my conversation with President Putin.

 
GlastonSpur said:
Yes, but did Poland's rate rise by more than 1% in a single week? Let's see how the two rates compare in 2 or 3 months from now.
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Actually it did raise by 2.5% in 3 weeks. The issue with week over week inflation is that there’s really no way to estimate it with any serious level of accuracy.

I mean if Russia faces inflation of 20-25% in a few months it’s bad but still not catastrophic given what’s going on in the world.
 
TwoSheds said:
Fascinating article about how the war may be all about oil prices and actually it was arguably never necessary to win it quickly in Putin's mind.

https://bylinetimes.com/2022/03/30/weak-oil-the-looming-collapse-of-putins-petro-dictatorship/
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Interesting piece, but how long would it take for Germany to "bring forward its renewable energy targets and is actively seeking alternative sources of fossil fuels"

As far as I know they're closing down their last nuclear reactors this year -and these type of projects take years if not decades to implement.
 
VorZakone said:
Drone footage from Mariupol is just insane. The city is destroyed.
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All for a land bridge to Crimea. If Putin negotiates a ceasefire not involving Mariupol, the cost of rebuilding it should be paid for by frozen Russian assets.
 
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