I think they can embed a whole javelin team. It's a huge border , and a lot of Ukrainians have RU passports.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Hell, a javelin can be operated successfully by one person.
Haha, relax guys I was taking the piss out of the Russian diplomatic playbook
At this stage of the conflict, I don't think there is any need for any false flag operations in Russia. If the Ukrainians still have the ability to flatten a few Russian military or supply installations, more power to them.
I suggest you white text the next time.
Yeah but imagine if they could smuggle a couple of them into some *high value* target areas.
Incredibly brave and skilful of the Ukrainian pilots to be able to do this.
I wonder if this attack will be reported on Russian TV, or whether it won't because it doesn't fit well with the avoidance of using the "war" word.
Bear in mind that Russia constantly play a very strange game when it comes to processes. Even though no-one outside Russia is going to believe their 'justifications' for doing things, its usually very important to them that those justifications are present anyway. As if that box has to be ticked before they can proceed.
The Russians are proving themselves wildly incompetent at combined arms, but the idea that during a war they have no comprehensive air defense on their own border just seems like a nonsense. Especially as the systems they do have are very, very good.
Who knows, maybe it'll turn out to be one of those crazy true things that surprise everybody, but it seems pretty unfeasible considering the situation over there.
I don't think they'd be going through passport border controls. With javelin missiles in their luggage it might get a bit awkward when asked "anything to declare?"
Consider this: Helicopters can fly very low, so that sophisticated long range air defenses can't track them, if you know where those are stationed. And as the S-300/S-400 are quite big, we can be sure that Ukraine got necessary intel about those.
That only leaves the smaller systems, and for them it is a nightmare to decide if an incoming Mi-24 is friend or foe (and friend is mich more likely), as both sides use that type. Good reconaissance and a bit of daring to just surprise make such an attack possible.
Edit: just as I write about this I think this might also explain why they used helicopters and not performed a drone strike. The flight profile of a Bayraktar would be unique, and if it was detected by advanced air defence systems it would likely be shot down. But a Mi-24 is absolutely normal to fly around there and therefore not suspicious once it appears on radar.
Another video of the helo-attack, this time showing the start of the return route:
Source: Dude trust me
It is when you don't have airborne radars or satellite tracking. It's totally possible to detect low flying helicopters with modern technology.
Errm, no. IFF interrogation is not based on visual identification by some GI Joe. It’s a fully automated communication using electromagnetic signals. And it’s been used since WW2, it’s not new either. Even the oldest and shortest range manpads, like Stinger missile launchers, have IFF integrated. Never mind short-medium range SAM batteries.
The BBC reports:
"Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison says his country will send some armoured Bushmaster vehicles to Ukraine, following an address by President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Australian Parliament.
In his address on Thursday night, President Zelensky had said Ukraine was in desperate need of military aid.
The number of vehicles to be transferred was not immediately known, although Defence Minister Peter Dutton earlier said only four could be transported at a time on Australian military planes.
Canberra has previously used the vehicles in warzones like Afghanistan and Iraq."
"Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison says his country will send some armoured Bushmaster vehicles to Ukraine, following an address by President Volodymyr Zelensky to the Australian Parliament.
In his address on Thursday night, President Zelensky had said Ukraine was in desperate need of military aid.
The number of vehicles to be transferred was not immediately known, although Defence Minister Peter Dutton earlier said only four could be transported at a time on Australian military planes.
Canberra has previously used the vehicles in warzones like Afghanistan and Iraq."
It’s a long way to ship stuff mate. Easier, quicker and cheaper to pay a European country (say Netherlands, who already have Bushmasters) to send armoured vehicles on their behalf.
I don't really do white text posts but that's fair enough. I didn't expect so many to take me quite so literally, though considering the current situation I probably should have known better!
As expected, high likelihood it was a false flag, brace yourselves for something nasty from these horrible cnuts.
A false flag explanation doesn't make sense. There were no Russian casualties (and especially no civilians), the attack boosts the morale of the Ukrainian forces, it was a legitimate target in time of war (not a civilian target like a shopping mall or block of flats), it destroys Russian oil supplies.
Maybe if the US Air Force got involved they can speed it up, if they have any airlift capacity to spare at the moment. But yeah, a transfer from a European country would likely be quicker anyway.
It’s for internal consumption, it absolutely does. How can you justify the usage of nuclear/chemical weapon which he’s itching to deploy? Previously, it was just a special operation in Ukraine? Who uses nuclear/chemical weapons during special operations? However now these nazis are actually attacking Russia itself which unties their hands.
A false flag doesn't make sense, I agree.
The only escalation Russia can do at this stage is to use chemical or bio weapons, but we're all already half expecting them to do it anyway. There's no need for Russia to bomb their own supplies.
The only escalation Russia can do at this stage is to use chemical or bio weapons, but we're all already half expecting them to do it anyway. There's no need for Russia to bomb their own supplies.
April fools
It might do for a domestic audience like the Russian population.
If, for instance, you wanted to stoke a feeling of nationalistic outrage and defiance, without it seeming like the state has failed to protect any of its vulnerable citizens (strategic target, no deaths) then could this be a good way about it?
Key word is “we” in the west are expecting that and he doesn’t care about “us” but he still needs to justify such level of brutality internally
SORRY ITS THE DATE
I think we have to wait a bit (as with so many other things) on this helicopter attack to conclude who conducted the strike. Can't dismiss if indeed the Ukr Gen Staff isn't claiming, but that could come at a later time if their operations are being conducted in a very decentralized manner.
In other news, it seems the Russians are taking a beating in some locations as they try to fall back. As the expert (former soldier) on the Doomsday Watch podcast explained, fighting retreats are one of the hardest movements an army can conduct, trying to keep your firepower to the front while moving backwards.
In other news, it seems the Russians are taking a beating in some locations as they try to fall back. As the expert (former soldier) on the Doomsday Watch podcast explained, fighting retreats are one of the hardest movements an army can conduct, trying to keep your firepower to the front while moving backwards.
Will it achieve anything though? The idiots who support the war don't need more convincing, while the smarter ones who oppose the war will be clever enough to figure out the ruse anyway. They probably have access to VPN and western media.
That all depends on them being in the air at the time, in the right place, and able to effectively coordinate with the ground forces manning the anti aircraft systems. Low altitude flying is still incredibly effective and regularly trained by any competent air force.
Even beasts like the b 52 have been flying as low as 80 feet.
I would be very surprised if Ukrainians actually managed to stage this themselves. Maybe I’m giving too much benefit of doubt for Russian competence to be able to prevent something like this from happening.
In theory you are right. However we know that visual confirmation still is a factor, simply due to the fact that Russian helicopters show the Z mark.
And I wouldn't rule out that the Ukrainians who use the same systems and downed a lot of Russian helicopters might even be able to fool their electronic IFF.
But even if they simply don't respond, how do you determine if it is a foe, or just a friend who's got a malfunction? It's easy to identify a friend with an IFF, but much harder to reliably identify a foe.
I don't agree. Apart from the reasons I've already given, using WMDs would undermine Putin's claim that this is not a war, a claim which the Kremlin has gone to great lengths to push.
Moreover, using chemical weapons (or worse) will trigger a much more severe response from the West, which Russia can ill-afford, and further blacken Russia's name on the world stage. I don't see what they'd gain from it.
To rub more salt on the wound, on the same day, Ukraine demonstrating how to deal with low flying enemy helicopters.
I'm right in practice too.
The symbols of the Russian army have nothing to do with fried or foe. They originate in identifying which Russian army the vehicle is supposed to belong to, mostly pre-war. That was before they became part of the war propaganda and they started spamming Z everywhere as a symbol of support for the war.
How do you fool an IFF? Give a brother a source here. If you have hacked their military codes, maybe. But even those change all the time.
It's a pretty simple concept. In a war situation if an aircraft doesn't respond to IFF then it's a foe. Like in a top security facility if you spot someone without ID, who is armed and does not respond to commands they are immediately treated as an intruder.
Plus, no friend of yours would be flying with a malfunctioning IFF responder during a war. If they did you would receive warning from command in advance. Otherwise what are the chances it's a malfunctioning friendly versus an enemy? If you're not going to shoot down aircraft failing IFF check in a war, you might as well not use IFF at all. What you're describing is a non-issue.
Because there are actually a lot of people ready to defend putin and whatever he does, that those things matter (outside of Russia), so they can point at them as evidence, and from there the propaganda moves on. It looks hopeless from my and maybe your point of view, but in many circles it's like fresh air to continue the disinformation. Entire nations like Serbia live on the message from Moscow but also many others.
I'm afraid Putin will escalate this war destroying one of his cities with some kind of chemical weapon accusing Ukraine and giving him the green flag to use a nuclear weapon.
Exactly my point, the symbols are used to identify to which unit a craft belongs.
We know Ukraine destroyed and captured a lot of air defense systems. It is possible that they got valid codes in such an incident and just used them before they were changed. But obviously, that is just a wild theory, however it should be possible to happen.
Again in theory you are right. But on the other hand battle damage on helicopters is quite usual, not working communication or IFF aren't surprising, but of course a reason for concern. You don't want to just kill your pilot flying back from a hard battle, you want to make sure that it really aren't your own, so you try to get confirmation.
And when you think about the proven incompetence of the Russian air defense soldiers and their general lack of quality communication it becomes plausible that they wouldn't shoot at what they must consider a damaged Russian craft flying home, as they wouldn't expect Ukrainians flying into Russia.
This might however change now if this incident makes them paranoid, but it would lead to a massive increase in friendly fire.