Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Mciahel Goodman said:
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Mciahel Goodman said:
Don't think so. It was speculated that it could have been fake but the Ukrainians said they would investigate. Intercept states Ukrainian journalist has confirmed three dead bodies identified as Russian soldiers in the same location.

Full analysis here: https://theintercept.com/2022/03/31...ntercept&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social
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I don't know how legit theintercept is but I can't find anything at all to back up the claim this report is from Yuri Butusov. He is indeed a well know Ukranian journalist, with his own news site censor.net. He reports on a lot of stuff, but apparently gave this story soley to the theintercept? They are the only ones making this claim.

He's also some sort of world class forensics expert apparently, being able to identify the nationality of three completely charred remains...

What's that smell?
 
Simbo said:
I don't know how legit theintercept is but I can't find anything at all to back up the claim this report is from Yuri Butusov. He is indeed a well know Ukranian journalist, with his own news site censor.net. He reports on a lot of stuff, but apparently gave this story soley to the theintercept? They are the only ones making this claim.

He's also some sort of world class forensics expert apparently, being able to identify the nationality of three completely charred remains... Actually i've just rewatched the vid, apparently the red band on one of the arms of a completely charred body survived unscathed :lol:

What's that smell?
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TheIntercept is very legitimate. They're staffed by former NYT editors and major writers.

Withnail said:
As @firestarter pointed out the rehearsal video came out recently. That video looks fake enough anyway. Those lads were not shot.
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The rehearsal video was the same video with some music played in the background, from what I remember at least. It hasn't been confirmed yet but TheIntercept wouldn't run this if it wasn't somewhat (or even highly) credible. Might still turn out to be fake, but less likely now.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
TheIntercept is very legitimate. They're staffed by former NYT editors and major writers.


The rehearsal video was the same video with some music played in the background, from what I remember at least. It hasn't been confirmed yet but TheIntercept wouldn't run this if it wasn't somewhat (or even highly) credible. Might still turn out to be fake, but less likely now.
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I've just seen the claim is published on the Russian version of censor.net, so yeh, a fair source for theintercept I guess as its on the same domain. The story isn't published on the main Ukrainian version of the site though, strange.
 
Simbo said:
I don't know how legit theintercept is but I can't find anything at all to back up the claim this report is from Yuri Butusov. He is indeed a well know Ukranian journalist, with his own news site censor.net. He reports on a lot of stuff, but apparently gave this story soley to the theintercept? They are the only ones making this claim.

He's also some sort of world class forensics expert apparently, being able to identify the nationality of three completely charred remains...

What's that smell?
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You would want some degree of corroboration, especially when the Intercept is involved in their usual attempts to push contrarian narratives.
 
Raoul said:
You would want some degree of corroboration, especially when the Intercept is involved in their usual attempts to push contrarian narratives.
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Kind of agree. The intercept is not my go to but they do have more credibility that most. Used to love Mehdi Hasan's podcast.
 
WI_Red said:
Kind of agree. The intercept is not my go to but they do have more credibility that most. Used to love Mehdi Hassan's podcast.
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Its much more readable after they ditched "Glenn".
 
McGrathsipan said:
What are you thinking?
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It just feels as though we are at end game don’t you think? before it all started it was widely reported Russia couldn’t go much longer than a month financially. Oddly enough reports are they are now withdrawing and giving somewhat adjusted objectives.

I’m hoping it’s they withdraw and that’s it but it won’t be that easy. Worst case they are withdrawing their troops and intend to absolutely batter Kyiv with some quite nasty weapons.

I feel we are looking at a withdrawal of sorts and negotiated end to the conflict.

You?
 
TheReligion said:
It just feels as though we are at end game don’t you think? before it all started it was widely reported Russia couldn’t go much longer than a month financially. Oddly enough reports are they are now withdrawing and giving somewhat adjusted objectives.

I’m hoping it’s they withdraw and that’s it but it won’t be that easy. Worst case they are withdrawing their troops and intend to absolutely batter Kyiv with some quite nasty weapons.

I feel we are looking at a withdrawal of sorts and negotiated end to the conflict.

You?
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I feel it's 4 possible scenarios:

1. They're retreating tired and demotivated troops out from the North after hitting fierce resistance. That allows them to rearm and redeploy into areas they have had success (South and East).
2. They're retreating with the intention of launching chemical weapons at Kyiv (I don't think this will happen given the International outcry from it occurring).
3. They're retreating back with the intention to draw Ukraine out and stretch their forces. This will make them weaker overall and easier to over whelm.
4. They're retreating to pull Ukraine forces South with the intention of drawing Ukraine forces South and East to then launch a new surprise attack from the North back towards Kyiv.

Unlikely it's 2, 1 makes sense given their initial blitzkrieg style attack failed hopelessly. 4 could make sense if they've managed to draw Belarus troops into the war. They could pull Ukraine troops away from Kyiv and then Belarus joins the war and tries to attack Kyiv like Russia did with a swift attack.

Personally, it's 1 and 3 for me.
 
RedSky said:
I feel it's 4 possible scenarios:

1. They're retreating tired and demotivated troops out from the North after hitting fierce resistance. That allows them to rearm and redeploy into areas they have had success (South and East).
2. They're retreating with the intention of launching chemical weapons at Kyiv (I don't think this will happen given the International outcry from it occurring).
3. They're retreating back with the intention to draw Ukraine out and stretch their forces. This will make them weaker overall and easier to over whelm.
4. They're retreating to pull Ukraine forces South with the intention of drawing Ukraine forces South and East to then launch a new surprise attack from the North back towards Kyiv.

Unlikely it's 2, 1 makes sense given their initial blitzkrieg style attack failed hopelessly. 4 could make sense if they've managed to draw Belarus troops into the war. They could pull Ukraine troops away from Kyiv and then Belarus joins the war and tries to attack Kyiv like Russia did with a swift attack.

Personally, it's 1 and 3 for me.
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I don’t see one being a viable tactic. Essentially giving all your gains back and starting from square one. You’d simply replenish the troops at the front lines without conceding territorial superiority.

3 is interesting though and could be a possibility. Still feel it would be hard though given how awful they’ve been tactically thus far.
 
RedSky said:
I feel it's 4 possible scenarios:

1. They're retreating tired and demotivated troops out from the North after hitting fierce resistance. That allows them to rearm and redeploy into areas they have had success (South and East).
2. They're retreating with the intention of launching chemical weapons at Kyiv (I don't think this will happen given the International outcry from it occurring).
3. They're retreating back with the intention to draw Ukraine out and stretch their forces. This will make them weaker overall and easier to over whelm.
4. They're retreating to pull Ukraine forces South with the intention of drawing Ukraine forces South and East to then launch a new surprise attack from the North back towards Kyiv.

Unlikely it's 2, 1 makes sense given their initial blitzkrieg style attack failed hopelessly. 4 could make sense if they've managed to draw Belarus troops into the war. They could pull Ukraine troops away from Kyiv and then Belarus joins the war and tries to attack Kyiv like Russia did with a swift attack.

Personally, it's 1 and 3 for me.
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One is the most plausible to me. I think they regroup to take Odessa. Doing somwould ultimately strangulate Ukraine.
 
calodo2003 said:
One is the most plausible to me. I think they regroup to take Odessa. Doing somwould ultimately strangulate Ukraine.
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They have no chance whatsoever of taking Odessa. They're now struggling to even hold onto Kherson.
 
TheReligion said:
It just feels as though we are at end game don’t you think? before it all started it was widely reported Russia couldn’t go much longer than a month financially. Oddly enough reports are they are now withdrawing and giving somewhat adjusted objectives.

I’m hoping it’s they withdraw and that’s it but it won’t be that easy. Worst case they are withdrawing their troops and intend to absolutely batter Kyiv with some quite nasty weapons.

I feel we are looking at a withdrawal of sorts and negotiated end to the conflict.

You?
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I feel we're not far off. I noticed that Russia's defence of the ruble today was woeful, for the first time in a few weeks. It could be that the signs of financial squeezing are finally showing.

Either way, I reckon they'll probably give the Donbas and Odesa one hell of a pounding before they give up.
 
Mciahel Goodman said:
TheIntercept is very legitimate. They're staffed by former NYT editors and major writers.


The rehearsal video was the same video with some music played in the background, from what I remember at least. It hasn't been confirmed yet but TheIntercept wouldn't run this if it wasn't somewhat (or even highly) credible. Might still turn out to be fake, but less likely now.
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Simbo said:
I've just seen the claim is published on the Russian version of censor.net, so yeh, a fair source for theintercept I guess as its on the same domain. The story isn't published on the main Ukrainian version of the site though, strange.
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German outlet Bild run it with some corroboration as well. They detailed the vetting process they did. After géolocalisation of the video, speech analysis by independent experts and then corroborating with sources on the ground.

They concluded that “it was carried out by Ukrainian soldiers from the 92nd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army and volunteer squads associated with the Azov Regiment”.

The tweet in the spoiler comes with a link to their article in German.
 
nimic said:
A war is a conflict, it's not uncommon to talk about wars like that.
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How about a special operation? I mean it really does no good for Ukrainians calling this a conflict, when they’re subject to a brutal and largest full scale war/aggression/genocide since ww2.
Would you call a rape a conflict between male/female as well? Such understatements in the public space just play into Putin’s hands even if done without any bad intent.
 
The BBC reports:

"Ukraine's security chief has denied that Ukraine attacked an oil depot in Russia this morning. Now we have more details of Oleksiy Danilov's comments.

Speaking on Ukrainian television, Danilov hinted that the attack may have been carried out by Russians unhappy with the war - and he said similar incidents would likely follow."

So that's a new twist on things: the suggestion that elements of the Russian military are now deliberately trying to undermine Putin's war efforts. Even if it's not true, the thought that it might be is going to mess with Putin's mind.
 
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The Telegraph reports that a Russian soldier has died from radiation poisoning as a result of exposure in the Chornobyl exclusion zone. The US has stated it cannot verify claims of radiation poisoning, but the facility was handed back to Ukrainian civilian control yesterday
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GlastonSpur said:
The BBC reports:

"Ukraine's security chief has denied that Ukraine attacked an oil depot in Russia this morning. Now we have more details of Oleksiy Danilov's comments.

Speaking on Ukrainian television, Danilov hinted that the attack may have been carried out by Russians unhappy with the war - and he said similar incidents would likely follow."

So that's a new twist on things: the suggestion that elements of the Russian military are now deliberately trying to undermine Putin's war efforts.
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Somehow I cant believe this. If this thing really happened its full blown revolution territory.
 
Erm, a video is going viral on Twitter that is supposedly from a pro-Russian military group of Russian soldiers burning a Ukrainian PoW on a cross.
 
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Rajma said:
How about a special operation? I mean it really does no good for Ukrainians calling this a conflict, when they’re subject to a brutal and largest full scale war/aggression/genocide since ww2.
Would you call a rape a conflict between male/female as well? Such understatements in the public space just play into Putin’s hands even if done without any bad intent.
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What? WW2 wiki page has the word "conflict" a couple of times just in the first paragraph, for example. People use that word all the time when talking about war.
 
TMDaines said:
Erm, a video is going viral on Twitter that is supposedly from a pro-Russian military group of Russian soldiers burning a Ukrainian PoW on a cross. Jesus Christ.
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errr
 
Just saw a clip with dead UKR civilians absolutely littered everywhere on a long residential street. Almost screams chemical attack.
 
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