For most of the time there were no green corridors after the city got surrounded, unless you count those that led to Russia. So you were either lucky to get away before that or you were stuck inside.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Interesting indeed but he's fundamentally misread the West and massively overestimated Russian power. And I hope the Article 5 bit isn't typical Russian thinking because that could be a serious miscalculation.
Last edited:
The BBC reports:
"Ukrainian intelligence publishes list of Russian servicemen in Bucha
The Ukrainian intelligence service has published what it claims is a list of Russian personnel "who committed war crimes against the people of Ukraine in Bucha".
The list, published on the website of the Ministry of Defense, included the names, dates of birth, passport numbers and ranks of about 2,000 servicemen.
A message read: "Remember! All war criminals will be brought to justice for crimes committed against the civilian population of Ukraine."
It comes after senior government sources told the BBC that the UK government is considering action to target captains, majors, and colonels in the Russian military.
The measures could include sanctions as well as ways to hold individuals legally accountable for any crimes committed in Ukraine."
"Ukrainian intelligence publishes list of Russian servicemen in Bucha
The Ukrainian intelligence service has published what it claims is a list of Russian personnel "who committed war crimes against the people of Ukraine in Bucha".
The list, published on the website of the Ministry of Defense, included the names, dates of birth, passport numbers and ranks of about 2,000 servicemen.
A message read: "Remember! All war criminals will be brought to justice for crimes committed against the civilian population of Ukraine."
It comes after senior government sources told the BBC that the UK government is considering action to target captains, majors, and colonels in the Russian military.
The measures could include sanctions as well as ways to hold individuals legally accountable for any crimes committed in Ukraine."
That was what also my main source of shock, out of several items in the interview. It is so dangerous to ever assume that your adversary won't react/will back down from a stated red line, it's where the biggest blunders are committed. But if the US govt detects through whatever sources and means it has that this thinking is actually going on in Russian govt circles, then I would hope that troop commitments to the Baltics and Poland are increased even further.
Are ceasefire talks just ended now?
Just seen a tweet from a pro-Russian propagandist saying:
"What war crimes? They didn't commit any war crimes. There is no war. It's a special military operation. Can't have war crimes without a war."
"What war crimes? They didn't commit any war crimes. There is no war. It's a special military operation. Can't have war crimes without a war."
“If the glove don’t fit”
I never expected to see this in 21st century Europe, but from what has happened so far, perhaps Putin has decided to completely destroy Ukraine. They may keep bombombing one town with long range artillery and missiles till that town has no buildings standing any more, then move to the next town, and so on. I don't think that Putin cares about his own losses, he can sacrifice thousands of his soldiers and just blame the West for all that has happened.
This may take months. Unfortunately, I am not sure if Ukraine can do something in such a case. The easiest way to destroy long range artillery is air force, but they need a very long time to get trained in F-16s, and I imagine they do not have that many pilots available and the few they have are needed right now with whatever old Mig planes they have.
Perhaps another solution is drones. If USA has any high tech drones that can destroy artillery, they should give them to Ukraine. Perhaps contractors can operate those, without any direct involvement of NATO soldiers.
Last edited:
Ukraine is operating the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones with great success. I don't think that the US drones would be better suited for them, as in comparison they are a bit "overengineered", hopefully Turkey can and will deliver more of those.
This is incredibly dangerous, some of the rhetoric coming out of Russian state sources is in incredibly extreme. It must be stood up to, but I am genuinely worried about where that could end up. Our actions have failed to deter and we need to fix that, fast.
Indeed. Moreover, this Karaganov guy says: "I also know from the history of American nuclear strategy that the US is unlikely to defend Europe with nuclear weapons" .... which, apart from anything else, forgets that both France and the UK have nuclear weapons, and that even a single UK Trident submarine has the capacity to hit 40 Russian cities.
I mean I grew up in the cold war near a nuclear cruise missile route and there was no doubt about US resolve, none at all.
I also hope that Ukrainian forces will punch a hole in order to break that land bridge into smithereens once and for all.
On a different front, watch this interview with retired Major General Paul Eaton; the man was helping with investigations against war criminals from the Bosnian War back in 1998. Starting at 3:10 of the interview, this is where things get juicy. He says that NATO navies should be active in the Black Sea as there are reports of Russian ships laying down sea mines off the coast of Bulgaria, which could be considered as an act of aggression towards a NATO member.
Ukraine is a member of a UN resolution banning the use of mercenaries. To be fair though, so is Russia.
Interesting thread, from a retired General who reckons that Russia has already lost 30-50% of the front line invading combat units, and that he believes the Ukrainians "must - and will - defeat and perhaps destroy the RU army".
That was a very interesting interview. And yes, I’d love to see a Ukrainian armored assault pushing to the city and one more to the sea. Cut off and surround the Russian attackers and push them to the beach.
We’ve got really good minesweeping technology we can put to work in the Black Sea If need be. Wesley Clark’s portion was interesting as well, and I am glad that he highlighted how important armored vehicles still are for maneuver warfare and how much the Ukrainians need them. The only way to get them to them fast enough to matter is for the former USSR nations around them to send them their extras.
Saw one saying that the CIA also made up Cubans raping and murdering people in Angola in 1975, so Bucha is obviously fabricated as well.
@frostbite unfortunately I agree. The more collateral damage done to Ukraine the better, in Putins eyes, since I’m sure he won’t be entertaining the notion of reparations.
Get the west to pay huge sums to rebuild Ukraine, whilst also pointing to the destruction to paint out to his own people that Ukraine is a shithole.
In my mind, one of the key points of any resolution to this should be that the sanctions remain in place until Russia pays for the damage it has done (in a literal sense). How they amend for the war crimes and genocide though, I have no idea and can’t imagine Ukraine (or I hope, the west) ever forgetting or forgiving what has happened.
Get the west to pay huge sums to rebuild Ukraine, whilst also pointing to the destruction to paint out to his own people that Ukraine is a shithole.
In my mind, one of the key points of any resolution to this should be that the sanctions remain in place until Russia pays for the damage it has done (in a literal sense). How they amend for the war crimes and genocide though, I have no idea and can’t imagine Ukraine (or I hope, the west) ever forgetting or forgiving what has happened.
It's a terrible idea to force Russia to pay for the rebuild, that will fuel a future war and solve nothing. By all means use frozen oligarch assets, Putin's money and so on, but if anything we should invest in it should we ever get a chance to see a relatively free Russia. It worked for Germany after WW2 and it's the clear failing of dealing with post Cold War Russia. We can't make that mistake again.
You’re mad. No. What worked in Germany was that after the fall of Berlin the entire state mechanism was torn down and built back up with completely different people and with the open admission that what they had done was wrong. They were also completely disarmed for decades.
There will be no such mea culpa in Putin’s Russia. They will try to spin this as a victory and failing that they will choose a narrative where they were the victims of western aggression and not the aggressors. They will fuel resentment and more grievance. They will stay highly militarised. So I’m not investing a single rouble. It’d be like investing in Germany while the Nazis are still in power. I’d rather burn my money first, it will do more good.
Last edited:
If you put money into Putin's Russia, he just use it to rebuild his army so he can have another go at genocide in the future.
No thanks.
No thanks.
No it really wouldn't be like that. You invest with conditions. You don't punish without conditions.
Clearly one of those conditions is Putin hanging from a rope and the media and democratic systems and so on to be made free again. What you don't do is give Russia no incentive to change.
Germany and Japan were crushed, they surrendered unconditionally, and they were occupied by the US for many years. Nobody is talking about bombing or occupying Russia. I can see no parallels here.
Why are you talking about giving money to Russia or investing in Russia??? Russia has experienced zero destruction! It is Ukraine that will need a lot of money to rebuild.
Exactly this. The only existential issue Russia faces is their own idea of how powerful they wish they were and want to project over reality. Mixed in with not just misreading the west but also completely underestimating the ability and power of the west (and I'm not including the USA into this). I actually have a good friend who is Russian and while he doesn't fall for all the BS doing the rounds, he does display some of these traits of personality when it comes to and being Russian. As for Article 5. The US wouldn't need to get involved, Europe alone would deal with Russian forces. Not that that matters anyway as the US forces are in most of the NATO borders prepared to be the first line of defence.
Well if thats a pre-condition then its going to be non starter for the current regime - and I suspect most of those in a position to take over without a full on civil war would also be part of the current regime (generals, senior political allies)
so your pre-condition seems to be a (no doubt bloody and long) civil war which Putin somehow looses - presumably with no western intervention or assistance or it turs into a nuke throwing contest
As unpalatable as it is they either need to find a way Putin can live out his (hopefully short) remaining days in his billion dollar house living like some recluse tyrant king... either that or accept terrible reltions for several years and hope somehow the person that succeeds putin (who will probably be chosen by putin) is somehow distanced from putin?
Either that or we go full operation mongoose 2.0 and try to engineer Putin falling down the stairs and accidentally landing in a noose? (exploding Vacheron Constantin could be the new poison cigar?)
It really would be like that. You’re literally dreaming right now.
A conditional offer on Putin hanging will be interpreted as domestic interference and an attack on Kremlin and Russia’s independence by the west. It will only unify Russia more like this war has done. Putin is already popular in Russia and if the west wants him dead, that will only make him more popular.
That only decreases the chances of him being taken out, as anyone who does this will obviously be painted as a western stooge. And if it happens his immediate successor, after the power grab, will be more likely to use what happened to clamp down even harder on democracy and turn to full totalitarianism while making Russia forever hostile to the west.
There is no incentive big enough you can give to a man (and his clique) with control of a country the size of Russia, to give it up. We can’t even do that with Kim ffs.
You wouldn't make this sort of offer publicly would you...bear in mind we are currently already punishing them with sanctions and at the moment they are also losing their war and standing in the world. There is plenty of incentive to remove Putin in the next few months and then after that we need to work out what the best way of being constructive is. They have to be seen to be punished sure, use frozen assets for that if you like. But in the background we need a plan to incentivise change instead of just breeding new resentment.
I was wondering about this as well. But wouldn’t that leave their northern flank exposed? I know Russia have retreated up there but if they knew Ukraine forces had been diverted south, surely they’d just March back in? Or has that ship sailed now for Russia?
Our first thoughts should be for Ukraine, not Russia. There absolutely should not be a situation where half of Ukraine is rubble, but we are sitting here thinking about how to make sure Russia is able to recover and rebuild.
I agree with using frozen assets and Putin's money where possible, but that wont be nearly enough. You talk about fueling a war, I think the following would fuel a war;
- Ukraine not feeling that Russia has paid for their acts of aggression, creating even more lasting resentment and hostility.
- The West having to pour resources into rebuilding Ukraine whilst Russia is allowed to rebuild its strength.
Russia, and the Russian people, have largely chosen their course. All the dreams of liberty and freedom in the world arent going to change that. Its unfortunately time to accept that Russia is a hostile, rogue state on Europe's doorstep, and act appropriately. The 'softly softly' approach plainly does not work on Putin or on Russia.
Money isn't real. "Paying" should primarily take the form of justice. Putin should die or go on trial, the ministers should be tried, the oligarchs should have their assets confiscated (or more where appropriate), the propagandists in the media should be tried, the police and military should be held accountable. Ukraine shouldn't want for money, the West will be desperate to invest there over the coming years and they previously had good trading relations with China too. There is enough money to rebuild Ukraine without alienating Russia permanently. Obviously it should be dependent on some form of visible justice for the current Russian regime, I hoped that goes without saying.
This is getting dumber and dumber. Who would you make this offer privately to then? Putin? His circle, who are in positions of power? The people you can't buy because they're already billionaires from the kleptocracy against the state and part of the same clique?
You've built a complete oxymoron. You want to make a private offer but not to anyone who is in the state apparatus, whom you want to punish. But no one outside it could take Putin down. So who is this offer for?
I agree with you about the need for western policy to look beyond Putin to try and push Russia towards the west rather than further away.
Won't happen though. Politicians both sides will follow public sentiment and that's still rightly or wrongly emotion based. For the likes of Biden to change tone and not lose votes for being weak Russia would need to apologise, no new Russian leader could do that right now.
I'd expect both sides will remain hostile for some time publically with a gradual softening based on behind closed door deals.
Im not sure how many votes he would actually loose as hes going to be portrayed as weak anyway (wouldnt do no fly zone... putin didnt invade when trump was in power... the afghan withdrawal emboldened putin... biden does not are about stopping putin he just wants to save his sons million dollar consultancy contracts in Ukraine)
I think your right about both sides remaining hostile for the foreseeable but Im not sure it would make much of a difference to the shellacking the Dems will get in the mid terms anyway (more people died of covid under biden... biden caused inflation with his covid stimulus and they want to spend more... he wants to take your guns and kill your babies etc etc plus biden created CRT and allows men to swim against women - he even stopped JFK junior coming back to help trump bring down a peadophile ring... its all on hunters laptop - even hillaries emails) - whatever level of crazy gets people on board the republicans will cover all bases from gas costs more to Qannon
Given the progressive wing seem as frustrated with biden (or at least the process in the senate) I think hes a lame duck after November
No, clearly you have to make an offer to some sort of dickhead with power and you have to offer him something in return, way of the world. Who that person is, how the feck do I know? It's a bit like fans saying what director of football we should get - nobody knows feck all about the job or the people so why do you have an opinion on it? In this case you would imagine the western governments are ever so slightly better clued up than a man on a football forum. Well at least I would.
Yep that is what I would hope too. Anyway who thinks there's an overnight fix for any of this is mad. It will take decades of good policy choices (yes I know that's unlikely but it happened after WW2, it's not impossible).
Having Russia pay for a rebuild would make them feel even more that they own it and stake a claim down the line.