Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Sure. But we were discussing whether Russia has lost goodwill and diplomtic leverage by invading Ukraine and the poster I was replying to suggested that this was the case only in Western countries, not the rest of the world. If anything India buying cheap Russian oil contradicts that claim.
That’s an interesting way to look at things. But then again it depends wether the discount eats up more than the recent price increases or not.


Eitherway if this here is accurate it means their losses are enormous.

Russia gets £3.5 billion less than it forecast for oil and gas in March:

"The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation announced on Tuesday that it received 302billion rubles less than expected for the month of March 2022. The country received oil and gas revenues of 496bilion (4.5billion) rubles in March, but was forecast to receive around 790billion (£7billion)."


Regarding their influence in general Africa is an important part of that, and The West has to pay attention to it. Look at this map:

FPmgGzFVgAAr9k_
 

Nice. If NATO doesn't join the fight itself (a decision I still support, although with a growing heavy heart after all these war crimes) "fight" them on all other fronts.
Close all embassies, cut any business ties, isolate them completely.

For the first two or three weeks I was one of those in the "it's only Putins war" camp. But the longer this goes, the more you hear and read of ordinary Russians in social media and on YouTube and the longer you don't witness any heavy reaction from oligarchs or Russian politicians, it's clear: this war is not only Putins war.

I'm not saying that all or even the majority of Russian people support the war. And I'm aware that demonstrating or even speaking out against it is dangerous. But: being quiet is one thing, supporting Putin and the "special operation" on social media and spreading Russian propaganda is a whole different story.
 
Nice. If NATO doesn't join the fight itself (a decision I still support, although with a growing heavy heart after all these war crimes) "fight" them on all other fronts.
Close all embassies, cut any business ties, isolate them completely.

For the first two or three weeks I was one of those in the "it's only Putins war" camp. But the longer this goes, the more you hear and read of ordinary Russians in social media and on YouTube and the longer you don't witness any heavy reaction from oligarchs or Russian politicians, it's clear: this war is not only Putins war.

I'm not saying that all or even the majority of Russian people support the war. And I'm aware that demonstrating or even speaking out against it is dangerous. But: being quiet is one thing, supporting Putin and the "special operation" on social media and spreading Russian propaganda is a whole different story.

Indeed. Every single person out there showing any form of support for the invasion can go feck oneself. They chose to die on that hill, and thus they are beyond any salvation for as far as things are going right now.

As for the embassies and consulates, Russia should feel fortunate that people out there aren't willing to get violent against the buildings just yet. But we may well get there if nothing changes for any better in the war, just like how many times that protests in front of US embassies and consulates have turned violent in the past.
 
NATO and the West need to ramp it up now: go all in with supplying, in massive quantities, every conceivable non-WMD weapon - both offensive and defensive - that the Ukrainian military either already know how to use or can be quickly trained to use.

For starters I want to see some of those Russian ships in the Black Sea hit with anti-ship missiles.
 
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That breaks my heart

I mean, why would you even do it, what's the benefit?

They do it because it they get pleasure from violence, killing and cruelty. It makes them feel like powerful "big men".
 
Mixed US/US/Norway group currently fighting over there with a serving Norweigian MP on the team.



They claimed this Javelin hit.
 
This is why Europe and the UK need to get their act together fast. We need to be able to defend democracy and freedom by ourselves alone in the event that Trump - or a Trump-like figure - gains the Presidency again, because if they do, it's going to be bye bye America.

 
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Mixed US/US/Norway group currently fighting over there with a serving Norweigian MP on the team.



They claimed this Javelin hit.


You see so much destroyed military equipment laying around. After the war, what can the UKR folks do about it? Got to be some hazardous materials in the tanks etc? Scrap metal?
 
You see so much destroyed military equipment laying around. After the war, what can the UKR folks do about it? Got to be some hazardous materials in the tanks etc? Scrap metal?
The Japanese used lots of scrap metal from tanks to build the Tokyo Tower and many of the post-WW2 buildings.
 
This is why Europe and the UK need to get their act together fast. We need to be able to defend democracy and freedom by ourselves alone in the event that Trump - or a Trump-like figure - gains the Presidency again, because if they do, it's going to be bye bye America.


That's absolutely astonishing.
Putin might never prevail militarily against Nato, but he doesn't have to. He just has to keep funding his troll army and shills and see how democracies in the West slowly erode
 
What serving Norwegian MP? Can't imagine that's legal.

Probably needs a Norweigian to verify but Sandra Anderson Eira, a member of Sámi Parliament of Norway. I'm guessing this is a seperate body to the main goverment parliament?

 
Very interesting interview and analysis of the current situation. Especially about the moral component in a war.

He also further validates my understanding that it is not just Putin who is responsible for this war, but there is a much deeper problem with the Russian mindset.

 
What serving Norwegian MP? Can't imagine that's legal.

When there were first rumblings about people going down to join the resistence I remember PST and Støre commenting on it, saying that it’s legal but not advised. An MP might be more complicated, though, with them representing the state to an extent.

Probably needs a Norweigian to verify but Sandra Anderson Eira, a member of Sámi Parliament of Norway. I'm guessing this is a seperate body to the main goverment parliament?



Yeah, not quite the same as someone from our national parliment or government.
 


I don’t like this attitude.

Can someone explain the downside of a negotiated peace deal that might look like a defeat but at the same time preserves innocent lives?

The West hopefully keeps harsh sanctions on Russia despite the negotiated deal. And Ukrainian lives are spared.
 


I don’t like this attitude.

Can someone explain the downside of a negotiated peace deal that might look like a defeat but at the same time preserves innocent lives?

The West hopefully keeps harsh sanctions on Russia despite the negotiated deal. And Ukrainian lives are spared.

I might be misreading this post but don’t let this stupid article fool you that NATO is pushing Ukrainians to fight further, no Ukrainian I know is prepared to give up even an inch of their territory to fascists now. That’s their call and we should respect it and support it with all the weaponry we can, any other outcome just gonna lead to more of the same later down the line as any agreement signed by Russia is not worth the paper it has been written on. West pushed Ukraine shamelessly to concede their territories back in 2014 for the “peace” deal which brought us here, the concessions with criminals don’t work as it only encourages them, I thought we learned it by now? This is actually the biggest fear for Ukraine now that west will get tired of it and will start signaling for negotiations in expense of Ukraine wishes, that would be a terrible mistake to make. Just ban Russian gas/oil and watch them explode within weeks.
 
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I don’t like this attitude.

Can someone explain the downside of a negotiated peace deal that might look like a defeat but at the same time preserves innocent lives?

The West hopefully keeps harsh sanctions on Russia despite the negotiated deal. And Ukrainian lives are spared.


If Russia gets a victory then Putin's position in Russia is absolutely secure and reinforced. To maintain that he will inevitably attack again, whether its Ukraine or elsewhere. It also proves that if a powerful country wants to steal from a weaker one, they can do so and no-one will stop them.

From Ukraine's perspective, they not only lose part of their country (and bear in mind this also means sacrifice their citizens and their possessions to the whim of a foreign power who has publicly said their identity shouldn't exist) but they get to live with the knowledge that Russia could just attack them again, any time they please and no-one is going to do anything about it.

Would you agree to this? Would you hand over Umeå or Malmö and the surrounding regions to a hostile power who had invaded, devastated Stockholm and Gothenburg and committed acts of genocide on the Swedish people? With no guarantees that they won't just come back and finish the job later?
 


I don’t like this attitude.

Can someone explain the downside of a negotiated peace deal that might look like a defeat but at the same time preserves innocent lives?

The West hopefully keeps harsh sanctions on Russia despite the negotiated deal. And Ukrainian lives are spared.


I'm sure such discussions have taken place but only in the sense all paths must be assessed with cold hard logic. It doesn't mean those options or agendas are pushed necessarily.

Using Ukranian troops in a proxy war against Putin is obviously beneficial to NATO as it weakens Russia further and further. It's a huge opportunity to destabilize a regional power without actually having the drawbacks of war so yeah an early peace deal would be detrimental to that.

I think Zelenskyy seems wise enough to identify what's best for Ukraine rather than outside interests.
 
West pushed Ukraine shamelessly to concede their territories back in 2014 for the “peace” deal which brought us here, the concessions with criminals don’t work as it only encourages them, I thought we learned it by now? This is actually the biggest fear for Ukraine now that west will get tired of it and will start signaling for negotiations in expense of Ukraine wishes, that would be a terrible mistake to make. Just ban Russian gas/oil and watch them explode within weeks.

I agree we act very cowardly back then. But I don’t see us doing anything right now.

Lithuania is stopping the imports of Russian gas while at the same time allowing Russian deliveries to Kaliningrad through its soil. I don’t how that is regulated and if you can unilaterally stop it.

Most of Europe aren’t even considering a stop, because so far we are clearly not willing to make the very hard sacrifices that are needed to crush Russian economy quickly.

The US has refused so far to hand over the jets that would have changed so much in this fight.
 
I'm sure such discussions have taken place but only in the sense all paths must be assessed with cold hard logic. It doesn't mean those options or agendas are pushed necessarily.

Using Ukranian troops in a proxy war against Putin is obviously beneficial to NATO as it weakens Russia further and further. It's a huge opportunity to destabilize a regional power without actually having the drawbacks of war so yeah an early peace deal would be detrimental to that.

I think Zelenskyy seems wise enough to identify what's best for Ukraine rather than outside interests.
If proposals get serious enough for Zelensky to put them up for the referendum, those will get rejected overwhelmingly anyway.
 
Yeah, not quite the same as someone from our national parliment or government.

She's also living in the US, running some sort of fishing business and making a movie (about her experiences working in fishing, as a very male oriented profession, she hasn't gone to Ukraine to get material for her movie).

I wouldn't really describe her as a politician, at least not anymore.
 
Would you agree to this? Would you hand over Umeå or Malmö and the surrounding regions to a hostile power who had invaded, devastated Stockholm and Gothenburg and committed acts of genocide on the Swedish people? With no guarantees that they won't just come back and finish the job later?

I don’t think it’s reasonable for Ukraine to hand over territories to Russia, especially given that what happened in Butcha and Mariupol could happen in other cities. But at the end of the day those decisions should be up to them and we should support whatever they chose that doesn’t harm us.

Ps: I’m from Örebro and I don’t have much sympathy for Malmö. If only the Danes could take over that absurdly incompetent money waste of a city.
 
I don’t think it’s reasonable for Ukraine to hand over territories to Russia, especially given that what happened in Butcha and Mariupol could happen in other cities. But at the end of the day those decisions should be up to them and we should support whatever they chose that doesn’t harm us.

Ps: I’m from Örebro and I don’t have much sympathy for Malmö. If only the Danes could take over that absurdly incompetent money waste of a city.

It's never on the table in the first place, in my opinion, but I would think that the attrocities taking place make it even less reasonable for Ukranians to hand over territory.
 
That's absolutely astonishing.
Putin might never prevail militarily against Nato, but he doesn't have to. He just has to keep funding his troll army and shills and see how democracies in the West slowly erode

You're right - it is astonishing. QAnon nutters, "Christian" evangelical crazies, white supremacists, and assorted neo-fascists are taking over the Republican Party bit by bit.
 
It's never on the table in the first place, in my opinion, but I would think that the attrocities taking place make it even less reasonable for Ukranians to hand over territory.

Honestly, I say that will drive Ukrainian forces to fight even harder to kick all remaining Putinists out of the country, perhaps even try to get to pre-2014 borders once more.
 


The Russian have apparently attached explosives to the Antonov Bridge across the Dnieper, so that if they have to retreat from Kherson they can blow the bridge and so stop a further southward advance of the Ukrainians.