Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
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Some context. Both Estonia and Germany can apply for those weapons to be paid for by the EU's EPF (European Peace Facility). And given the current political climate, it's almost certain that all EU countries helping Ukraine will get reimbursed for their deliveries by the Union's common budget. Otherwise, it would be really shocking to see Estonia give the equivalent of their entire Defense budget to Ukraine.

The current EU budget has about €5.7billions allocated to EPF.
 
GlastonSpur said:
This is why Europe and the UK need to get their act together fast. We need to be able to defend democracy and freedom by ourselves alone in the event that Trump - or a Trump-like figure - gains the Presidency again, because if they do, it's going to be bye bye America.

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Russian media control/influence certainly is pretty worrying. From what I gather its around 1/3rd of the US that are pretty much blanketed by "conservative" media. Be it from Fox News, Sinclair or Talk Radio etc and "conservative" in America may as well be Kremlin TV nowadays.

Look up how OAN started, rich American spends time in Moscow, comes back with Russian wife 30 years his junior and a couple years later starts a media network dedicated to attacking US democracy, this has become a successful network... There is a similar story for the man behind the main Brexit campaign, Aaron Banks.

Murdoch is the main problem, god only knows just how aligned he is with Putin and what his motives really are but his actions speak for themselves, he is a Russian asset.

Then people like Robert Mercer, the money behind Trumps original campaign, Richard Bannon, Breightbart, parler, most other alt-right media around the world, Cambridge Analytica, etc. He runs the highest performing hedge fund in America, protected by financial secrecy laws and suspected of being Putin's personal money laundering scheme.
 
GlastonSpur said:
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This is very interesting, but I wonder if he considered (or really what he would say, given he's the expert) that it could be simply that the Russian army feels it needs to redeploy urgently, and the spent formations they are withdrawing from northern Ukraine are still closer to where they need to redeploy, than any troops they would look to bring from the Caucasus or the Far East? Still, it is an army that has lost significant combat power either way you cut it.
 
Simbo said:
Then people like Robert Mercer, the money behind Trumps original campaign, Richard Bannon, Breightbart, parler, most other alt-right media around the world, Cambridge Analytica, etc. He runs the highest performing hedge fund in America, protected by financial secrecy laws and suspected of being Putin's personal money laundering scheme.
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Renaissance Technologies (US hedge fund founded by Jim Simons, where Robert Mercer was co-CEO until 2017) is not the same as Renaissance Capital, the Russia-focused investment bank.
 
Simbo said:
Russian media control/influence certainly is pretty worrying. From what I gather its around 1/3rd of the US that are pretty much blanketed by "conservative" media. Be it from Fox News, Sinclair or Talk Radio etc and "conservative" in America may as well be Kremlin TV nowadays.

Look up how OAN started, rich American spends time in Moscow, comes back with Russian wife 30 years his junior and a couple years later starts a media network dedicated to attacking US democracy, this has become a successful network... There is a similar story for the man behind the main Brexit campaign, Aaron Banks.

Murdoch is the main problem, god only knows just how aligned he is with Putin and what his motives really are but his actions speak for themselves, he is a Russian asset.

Then people like Robert Mercer, the money behind Trumps original campaign, Richard Bannon, Breightbart, parler, most other alt-right media around the world, Cambridge Analytica, etc. He runs the highest performing hedge fund in America, protected by financial secrecy laws and suspected of being Putin's personal money laundering scheme.
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First time I heard that Renaissance Technology has anything to do with Putin (hint: it doesn’t). While Mercer was co-CEO, it was the brilliant mathematician Jim Simmons who created it, hired Mercer 10 or so years later, and still is active on supervising the company as the main owner and the alpha dog (similar to how Bezos runs Amazon despite not being CEO).

Not everything right wing is a Russian asset. RT is not even right wing to be fair, considering that Simmons is a lifelong and big donor Democrat.
 
The 193-member UN General Assembly will vote on Thursday whether to suspend Russia from the Geneva-based UN Human Rights Council.

Reuters reports that diplomats have said that the US is pushing for the vote.

A two-thirds majority of voting General Assembly members in New York can suspend a country for committing gross and systematic violations of human rights. Russia is in its second year of a three-year term on the 47-member Human Rights Council.
 
Revan said:
First time I heard that Renaissance Technology has anything to do with Putin (hint: it doesn’t). While Mercer was co-CEO, it was the brilliant mathematician Jim Simmons who created it, hired Mercer 10 or so years later, and still is active on supervising the company as the main owner and the alpha dog (similar to how Bezos runs Amazon despite not being CEO).

Not everything right wing is a Russian asset. RT is not even right wing to be fair, considering that Simmons is a lifelong and big donor Democrat.
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Its the Medallian fund that has the question marks over it, secretive, not open to outside investors and vastly higher performing that rentecs other ventures.

I agree, not everything right wing is a Russian asset but Russian intelligence love everything right wing and they act on it.
 
Simbo said:
Russian media control/influence certainly is pretty worrying. From what I gather its around 1/3rd of the US that are pretty much blanketed by "conservative" media. Be it from Fox News, Sinclair or Talk Radio etc and "conservative" in America may as well be Kremlin TV nowadays.

Look up how OAN started, rich American spends time in Moscow, comes back with Russian wife 30 years his junior and a couple years later starts a media network dedicated to attacking US democracy, this has become a successful network... There is a similar story for the man behind the main Brexit campaign, Aaron Banks.

Murdoch is the main problem, god only knows just how aligned he is with Putin and what his motives really are but his actions speak for themselves, he is a Russian asset.

Then people like Robert Mercer, the money behind Trumps original campaign, Richard Bannon, Breightbart, parler, most other alt-right media around the world, Cambridge Analytica, etc. He runs the highest performing hedge fund in America, protected by financial secrecy laws and suspected of being Putin's personal money laundering scheme.
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In a bit of "good" news, OANN was dropped by Direct TV yesterday

DirecTV to Drop One America News on Tuesday Despite Pressure - Bloomberg
 
Simbo said:
Its the Medallian fund that has the question marks over it, secretive, not open to outside investors and vastly higher performing that rentecs other ventures.

I agree, not everything right wing is a Russian asset but Russian intelligence love everything right wing and they act on it.
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It does not have any questions with regards to Russia over it. It is secretive same as other funds of hedge funds that heavily use statistical/machine learning patterns (Citadel, Jane Street, De Shaw etc). It is closed to outside investors cause they already have enough money and cannot replicate their algorithms with more money. And it outperforms the other funds cause it is better than them and have better employees*.

* Simons himself was a world-class mathematician, among other things having proved a conjecture that allowed Ed Witten to unify 5 different versions of string theory, and is heavily used in other physics fields (plasma physics etc). He was a pioneer in hedge funds, arguably being the first to leave aside intuition and security analysis, in favor of big data (we are talking at the early/mid-eighties). He then hired some of the smartest people he know (having worked at Berkeley and for NSA, he probably knew many smart people) and the fund has been doing incredibly well. Finding a job in Renaissance Technology is arguably harder than finding a job in any other company, and orders of magnitudes harder than being employed by FAANG. Because of the immense salaries (millions/year) they also have a non-existent turnover.

The right and wrongs of it and hedge funds in general can be debated to death, but it has nothing to do with Putin or Russia. The company was as secretive, and high-performing as now when Putin was a low-ranking KGB agent.
 
Simbo said:
Its the Medallian fund that has the question marks over it, secretive, not open to outside investors and vastly higher performing that rentecs other ventures.

I agree, not everything right wing is a Russian asset but Russian intelligence love everything right wing and they act on it.
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It's not right wing politics as a whole which is the problem here. Instead the problem lies with far right wing politics - opposed to democracy, actively seeking to undermine democracy, and wanting centralised power in the hands of an authoritarian dictator who will rule by decree in favour of the prejudices, myths and fantasies held dear by the far right.

In essence, the far right in any country doesn't need to consist of Russian intelligence assets .... because they are already philosophically kin to Russian ultra-nationalists
 
Orbán: Hungary 'will not give in' to pressure to extend EU sanctions against Russia's oil and gas
Reuters is carrying a little extra detail from Viktor Orbán’s press conference here which could be significant for the future. The Hungarian prime minister, fresh from winning his fourth consecutive election, told reporters Hungary must strengthen its alliance with Poland as it is a strategic alliance within the European Union.

Crucially, in response to a question about a disciplinary procedure flagged by the European Commission yesterday, Orban said Hungary would wait to see the EU’s letter, but “will not give in” to pressure to support an expansion of sanctions against Russia to oil and gas shipments, as that was a “red line” for Hungary.

The European Commission said yesterday is was launching a rule-of-law disciplinary procedure against Hungary.
 
If you want to help Ukraine in the fight, here is a website where you can donate to Ukraines military.

I donated a small contribution myself, if enough people help, it will make a difference I think:

https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/nat...srahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi

There is also a list of swift/iban adresses if you feel safer sending from your bank. I had no problems, used 3ds verification and it was safe for me.
 
stepic said:
this seems a pretty stupid oversight in the t&c's of the SC. what's the rationale do you know?
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To protect the interests of the 5 permanent members. Which is one of the reasons why UN exists in the first place.
 
Pintu said:


I don’t like this attitude.

Can someone explain the downside of a negotiated peace deal that might look like a defeat but at the same time preserves innocent lives?

The West hopefully keeps harsh sanctions on Russia despite the negotiated deal. And Ukrainian lives are spared.
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What’s stopping Putin from overreaching into another country? Or you know fecking up Ukraine again to gain further concessions?
 
Pintu said:


I don’t like this attitude.

Can someone explain the downside of a negotiated peace deal that might look like a defeat but at the same time preserves innocent lives?

The West hopefully keeps harsh sanctions on Russia despite the negotiated deal. And Ukrainian lives are spared.
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The tweet is incredibly misleading if one were to actually read the article. Its also not a quote, but rather one of the two journos adding their own perception of things.
 
Frosty said:
They cannot be kicked out of the UN as they have veto power on the Security Council.

They can be kicked out of the Human Rights Council with a 2/3 majority vote of the General Assembly.

As for whether it would make a difference, here is what the US ambassador to the UN said about the matter:



So part of increasing international isolation and reducing their voice in international institutions. The same reason why Russia was excluded from the Council of Europe (the body which administers the European Convention on Human Rights).
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Interesting thanks
 
Raoul said:
The tweet is incredibly misleading if one were to actually read the article. Its also not a quote, but rather one of the two journos adding their own perception of things.
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I only read the article after posting this. The article is actually more nuanced and doesn't only paint the cynical approach that this tweet would have us believe.

But it is a legitimate train of thought (among others of course) to draw from the actual quotes.

Devil_forever said:
What’s stopping Putin from overreaching into another country?
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It is not Ukrainians job to protect the rest of the world. I personally would think that this apparently not-so-strong Russian army can't really afford to invade an EU country, and certainly never a NATO country. Especially if we keep the sanctions and prevent them from rebuilding their army.

It is the countries that are currently out of both NATO & EU that should be extended some sort of protection and I think there are some plans being worked right now to achieve that.

Listen to NATO's Stoltenberg saying it yesterday. And he names Georgia and Bosnia for exemple.




Or you know fecking up Ukraine again to gain further concessions?
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That's a fair question and that why Ukraine should insist on the Security guarantees they are working on.
 
Poland has arrested two citizens of Belarus on charges of spying for Minsk, which could carry a 10-year prison sentence if they are found guilty, a regional prosecutor’s office said on Wednesday.

Tensions have been running high between the neighbours over a migrant crisis that the European Union and Poland say was engineered by Belarus, a charge Minsk denies. The EU also accuses Minsk of supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported.

“...the suspects heard charges of espionage on behalf of the Belarus intelligence services,” a regional prosecutor’s office in Poznan, west Poland, said in a statement

“They are suspected, among others, of conducting reconnaissance of military and civilian facilities of critical importance for the defense of the Republic of Poland,” the statement also said.

Both were arrested for three months and are facing up to 10 years in prison.
 
Pintu said:
I only read the article after posting this. The article is actually more nuanced and doesn't only paint the cynical approach that this tweet would have us believe.

But it is a legitimate train of thought (among others of course) to draw from the actual quotes.
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This might be more of the geopolitics thread, but I suppose the thinking is that, every day Russia is fighting Ukraine, Russia will lose soldiers and equipment, is paying for the war, and will continue to face these sanctions. As soon as there is a peace treaty, the first two stop and the third might follow soon after. So a long-term view might be that the Ukraine's suffering is worth it if it means Russia will be weakened to the point where the country will be largely toothless geopolitically for (possibly) decades.

(That's not my view, in case I need to add that.)
 
British embassy guard charged with spying for Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-61015772

A security guard at the British embassy in Berlin suspected of spying for Russia has been extradited to appear in court charged with nine offences under the Official Secrets Act.
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David Ballantyne Smith, 57, is due to appear at Westminster Magistrates' Court on Thursday.
The UK national was arrested by German police on 10 August.
The offences are alleged to have happened between October 2020 and August 2021.
Mr Smith, who had been living in Potsdam, in Germany, was flown back to the UK on Wednesday ahead of his appearance at Westminster Magistrates' Court.
The Metropolitan Police said the nine charges related to the collection and communication of information useful to the Russian state.
Nick Price, head of the special crime and counter terrorism division of the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), said Mr Smith was accused of seven offences of collecting information with the intent of sending it to the Russian authorities, one of attempting communication and one of providing information to a person he believed was a member of the Russian authorities.
He said the CPS had worked closely with its German counterparts to bring Mr Smith back to the UK after obtaining an extradition warrant.
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Yeh looking up his recent activities, it seems a fair move by Twitter.

 
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