He’s just trying to sell his book; the way this is framed is a bit scaremonger-ish.
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
We’re only a month into this conflict and by most accounts it is deemed to be going well from the Ukrainian perspective, then you see scenes just from one town like Bucha and the reports still coming out of Mariupol. Wait until the accounts are settled here on how many Ukrainians have been killed, disappeared or otherwise displaced. We’re not even at a stage where the Russians can start to implement their solutions to the “Ukrainian question” on a wide scale.
But, yes, hopefully the scale of what Russia ultimately achieves here will not bear any comparison to what Nazi Germany and its collaborators did in the Holocaust. I don’t think funding them to the gills is the best way of finding out though.
After Putin falls, there may be calls to repurpose NATO in a new collective security organization that includes Asian countries.
Not to mention a lot of these destroyed vehicles don't have to be in use. They could be stationery and destroyed at bases. That makes the number of planes/helicopters destroyed a little more realistic, as we know Russia have used airfields that Ukraine have hit time after time with artillery. Those numbers i'm sure are inflated, but I don't think by too much.
You really think he will?
Even if Russia loses this war, their propaganda will spin it and it will probably even strengthen Putins support among the people.
If close to accurate, then absolutely.
Just looking at tanks alone, 600 would be the equivalent of the armored force of the British and French Armies combined, or also roughly the Spanish, Italian, and German Armies combined.
It might not be quick but I think he has fecked himself in the medium/long term. They are going to be international pariahs after this and the economic damage will be more or less permanent. Especially as it will speed up a transition away from the fossil fuels which is a major earner for Russia. And he isn't getting any younger.
Their economy won’t be able to come back and he will never be able to return to the international community, which will over time weaken him at home. At some point he will either be overthrown or assassinated.
Unfathomable despite all civilizational advancement, violence still becomes a legitimate recourse when diplomacy fails thanks to fragile egos and deeply embedded insecurities.
Precisely. I really don't know why people make up shit on TV -- it would make no sense for China to take on the US and to invade Asian countries, especially after what has happened to Russia vis a vis the biggest set of sanctions ever. Plus the russian experience in UKR.
They have a military budget build-up only to supplement it being the 2nd largest economy in the world.
Its partly racism IMO. The whole yellow peril and all.
Is this posted in the right thread, in response to the right post?
Good update on how things are going in the south of Ukraine
Ruble back to pre war levels with greater gas/oil profits expected than last year (up to 33% more - 320 bn). That graph makes a mockney of the sanctions
Not sure how that happened but thanks, I’ve removed it and I’ll respond to the correct post forthwith.
From what I've read, China could take Taiwan anytime.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/mi...-failed-miserably-in-taiwan-invasion-wargame/
I have no idea what he's on about, but if it's war it's certainly not the traditional sense but rather continuing to challenge US in regards to power, which everyone expects.
Everyone knows China are playing both sides, they have no interest in picking sides, but they are hardly "fervent supporters of Moscow".
The Ruble is incredibly in a stronger position versus the Euro than it was a year ago. That feels insane to me.
Only if you don't understand that their financial system is not playing by the same rules as most other countries'.
'Russia's Ruble is reduced to rubble': Joe Biden
This was Biden boasting of the sanctions and its impact on the ruble.
The economical war doesn’t seem to be working short term (it’s probably eating up Russia form the inside but it doesn’t matter on the ground for Ukrainians civilians). It’s a long term game. I am starting to think we shouldn’t go any further in this hurtful economical escalation. People wanting Germany to stop import of gas immediately are ignoring the unpredictable effects on Europe.
It is time for the military escalation instead. Let’s call Putin’s bluff and impose a NFZ over Ukraine.
80% of all Russian profits made in other currencies now have to be converted to rubles. Russia is paying 20% interest on rubles. Foreign owned stocks and bonds cannot be sold. Sending money abroad is restricted. I imagine the government is buying rubles as well.
https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble
It’s easy for people to fall for the imperialistic crap at the moment as they don’t lose anything personally — at least they haven’t yet realized just how fecked they are by the consequences of the invasion & sanctions. It’s a propaganda bubble that can be burst and most likely will in the future.
The support for the war is real but it’s not based on reality and the more the latter creeps in (and I’m not only talking about economics, I’m talking about the military disaster that it turned out to be), the less popular that support will end up being.
I know that I’m clutching at straws here and Putin’s regime has enough raw power to suppress any opposition for years, but he’s really fecked in historical perspective.
You have to understand that it’s an illusion, based on a set of rules that almost eliminated any opportunity inside Russia to convert rubles to dollars. People that have dollars on their bank accounts can’t take them out without converting them into rubles. You can’t move more than 10k$ abroad. You can’t buy dollars in cash with rubles — you’ll only get a sum on your banking account that you can’t cash out without converting it back to rubles.
That and billions of dollars from the reserve funds that have been spent on softening the blow.
I can't answer for Biden, but i would hope it was meant as a long term view. Russia is doing everything they can to support and maintain the ruble, but it's not a long term solution under these type of sanctions. It's far more complicated than simply looking at ruble valuation, it's the mechanisms behind it and how sustainable they are which is the interesting part.
Our PM just announced that Estonia will stop buying gas from Russia this year, following Lithuania. Wish rest of the EU would make the same decision fast now.
I think most will do it as fast as they can. Unfortunately not anywhere near soon enough to crush Putin's war machine. The only effective way to really protect Ukraine from having what we saw in Butcha repat itself in other parts is to intervene militarily.
Yeap. They pay E850million per day to Putin's Russia.
The less dependent you are on Russian oil/gas, the easier it is to put a ban in place. Obviously one can and should question the longer term strategy from the likes of Germany which has led to their reliance on Russia, but as things stand right now its not really something they can just do overnight. In the longer term, all of Europe is going to be weaning its way off of Russian resources, which will weaken Russia immeasurably.
The ruble is now even stronger than it was pre-invasion 
Fair play, Russia's economic defenses are as strong as Ukraine's military defenses.
Luckily for us, we can hold our sanctions indefinitely while the physical war has to end at some time.
Fair play, Russia's economic defenses are as strong as Ukraine's military defenses.Luckily for us, we can hold our sanctions indefinitely while the physical war has to end at some time.
" Ukrainian Military Intelligence reported increasing Russian censorship in an effort to combat growing morale problems among Russian troops. Ukraine’s GUR reported that Russian officers are intensifying censorship of their troops and restricting access to the internet due to low morale.[1] The GUR claimed that Russian commanders complain about increasing Ukrainian influence over the information consumed by Russian soldiers. The GUR claimed to have intercepted an extract from an order issued by the Deputy Commander of the Western Military District for military and political work, which blamed low Russian morale on the internet and social media. The document reportedly instructs Russian officers to either ban or severely censor all messages received by personnel, as well as access to the internet. Draconian measures to restrict access to information among Russian personnel will likely further exacerbate low morale and desertion rates."
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-6
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-6
It's the sums of money flowing from European countries into Russia for energy versus the sums flowing into Ukraine for humanitarian and lethal aid that is truly sickening.
A regular reminder that Navalny might not be Putin, but he and his team are still no friends of Ukraine.
It feels hugely artificial to me
Sanctions were never going to crush his military forces, Ukraine were always going to struggle big time. It does however look like the vast majority, if not everyone, underestimated how long Ukraine would be able to hold on, and just how much damage they'd be able to inflict on Russian forces.
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It's a daft comparison.
The amounts spent on Ukraine is fairly fecking insane, by any standard. We're talking humanitarian aid, insane costs related to weapons and ammunation, then you factor in the costs in terms of companies shutting down their operations in Russia.
Like Shell:
Key Facts.it expects a post-tax impairment of between $4 billion and $5 billion of assets and charges related to credit losses and contracts in Russia in the first quarter of 2022,, higher than its previous estimate of $3.4 billion.
For humanitarian aid, it's also important to remember that throwing £100million on something might not actually work, you still need the infrastructure to transport it around.
Then there's the money that'll be spent moving away from Russian oil and gas, the immediate consequences it will have on finances in Europe.
It really, really, shouldn't be underestimated just how big the consequences and costs are.
Yep. It has parallels with the shutting down of the Russian stock market on the grounds that it can't collapse if it isn't open.
Give it another couple of months and the economic pips in Russia will really start to squeak.