I left Moscow many years ago so I can’t speak from experience but that description accords with what I have heard from people living there. It seems that, beyond foreign travel and the difficulty of transferring money, the full impact of sanctions will take a while to filter through. Also, from my circle, I don’t know anyone who is actually in the military (most of them middle-class Muscovites who would get a friendly doctor’s certificate to excuse them from the draft).
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
I left Moscow many years ago so I can’t speak from experience but that description accords with what I have heard from people living there. It seems that, beyond foreign travel and the difficulty of transferring money, the full impact of sanctions will take a while to filter through. Also, from my circle, I don’t know anyone who is actually in the military (most of them middle-class Muscovites who would get a friendly doctor’s certificate to excuse them from the draft).
Could not care less if the Chief Rascist is micromanaging the war. Ukraine has now access to an unlimited amount of arms. US will make sure that Rascist forces are defeated on battlefield.
Do y'all expect something to happen in Transnistria? Could be an attempt to fix Ukrainian forces away from the frontlines.
Unbelievable that Putin is just going to be welcomed to the G20. Not until October, though.
Probably the Chinese influence. With a bit of luck, he might have succumbed to his (allegedly) terminal illness by then or suffered a Mussolini-type fate.
Yeah, there's been some very suspicious activity there in the past few days.
Just seems like a lot of bluster trying to create a media distraction, rather than a military one. They reported have 1.5k troops there? Plus some drafted security. Ukraine has at least double the troops available to it than before this kicked off, so 450k+, they got spare. It would occupy some and their equipment for sure but I'd expect its already there and this threat covered for the most part.
The alternative is an attempt to fully take Moldova... They don't have the forces but in true Putin style is there a possibility of staging a coup? I did see some reports that the leadership there may be vunerable but don't know much about that. Then there is always the question of whether Romania would step in.
Reports that western countries have advised all citizens to leave Moldova is apparently twaddle:
Certainly seems to be something going on there though.
Promote him on that post alone.
9 posts, maybe a little early.
One of those people you wish would post more!9 posts, maybe a little early.
Play the kids!
Well thats fecking depressing. If no-one is feeling sanctions then maybe we should stop, my gas bill will come down at least.
This isn't the League Cup you know.
Excellent piece on Zelensky and the first days of the war.
God bless Poland.
Ukraine is really getting the treatment that Republican Spain should have been given. It's wonderful to see.
If this forum isn't a Mickey Mouse cup I don't know what is
9 posts, maybe a little early.
That's plenty. I was promoted in less than 10 posts myself.
you're not helping
So what round are we in?
Yeah, but you're a real doctor!
Anyway, Ukraine eh! How about it! And what about those sanctions!
Knocked out by MK Dons in the 2nd round.
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again?
To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?There are sanctions?!
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again?
To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?
I expected the sanctions would take a while to 'bite', especially as Russia have a lot of surplus cash and can (as the poster said) do all sorts of short-term currency manipulation to shore up the economy. We really need to put more pressure on India and China (I only expect India to be persuaded at best).
So, no games to even play those kids in. What was your point again?
To try and get this back on topic: a post like @DT12's does actually make me wonder what the sanctions will accomplish for Ukraine right now. Long-term, they may well be crippling. But if Russia is managing to get its products in without too much extra cost and trouble, and they can continue to export and get their main sources of foreign income as well - then what's being achieved here in the short term?
Mid to long term consequences can create short pressure, too. And if for example the end game of the west is a palace coup, then the narrative "Putin has wrecked our ecnomy for years to come and for what?" will be a powerful one.
Just ridiculous. I prefer it to be a G19 (or even a G18) than seeing little bald feck at the meeting. And doesn't Xi have to deal with the failure of his zero-COVID policy at home rather than influencing the G20 to let Putin in?
For the record, the next country rich enough to be integrated in the G20 and that is not represented by the European Union if Russia has to be replaced is... Taiwan (21st ranked in the world for nominal GDP).
I blame the forum for never voting me most helpful mod/admin.
Only if Russians start feeling it though. Abstract talk in the west about Russia's economy being wrecked in the longer term won't impress Russians that don't see those discussions, are getting paid, and see full shelves in the shops. But...
...maybe that's the better next step. Rather than trying to close loopholes, get at Russia's enablers. But while India might turn around with the right promises and support, I am not sure what the EU and US can do to pressure China. If anything, China might dig in as soon as there is any more public pressure.
That might be getting in the domain of the geopolitics thread, but I think it's an interesting point directly for the war itself. So much was made of those sanctions, and people on here were all expecting a full implosion of the Russian economy. Yet what's it actually doing to affect the war itself and improve Ukraine's short-term outlook? The sanctions might be a bit of a dud in that sense?
I certainly never voted for you. Yes, because I wasn't a member yet.
precisely.A perfect example of why sanctions take a long time to have an effect.
You're only looking at the common people though. But that's just one pressure point. If we assume that the consequences will eventually come, then that puts the Russian army on a bit of a clock to make gains before that happens and that could maybe explain why they didn't take more time to reorganize after their initial setback.
That same logic could also bolster the morale of Ukrainian defenders, give them hope that Russia will have to scale back of they hold out long enough.
But also an example of why sanctions work.
Yeah, I suppose in the upper echelons, people would see what's happening and where that's heading - and might be more interested in trying to get Putin out of power. Still, those people are overall very selfish I would think. If they don't suffer themselves and the people aren't complaining, it would be uncommonly altruistic of them to start risking their own neck to avoid long-term consequences.
"In fact, it has donated at least 25% of its 808-strong total tank arsenal."
This is great, thank you Poland!
I think they should give their 100% of their tank arsenal to Ukraine, and the rest of the West should go to Poland and get ready to protect them. The US has already sent parts of the 82 Airborne Division. There is also an Aegis ashore installation in Poland (and another one in Romania). And obviously Poland is protected by the US Air Force.
In an ideal world I would like the US to deploy even more Army and Air Force units to Poland and the Baltics. But I understand that in the current configuration it is a bit of a strain on the troops that are nominally based in the continental US, as they are away from their homes and families for the periods of deployment.
I wouldn't lay too much store in what the poster said about the effect of sanctions. Some of it was based on what he said about just one company (his wife's), which prints cigarette packets. Many companies will rely on much more sophisticated components that were previously imported from the West, and no amount of smuggling is going to replace all the missing stuff.
Also, many of the companies that have pulled out of Russia are temporarily continuing to pay their Russian staff, but this won't continue for much longer. For this and other reasons, unemployment in Russia is going to rise steeply. And the Russian stock market is down by around one-third since Feb. 16th - and is still only open on a highly restricted, artificial basis.
But more importantly, it's a long-term game, so whilst Russia is benefitting now from higher gas/oil/coal prices, this won't continue forever because the EU is now slowly moving away from the purchase of these commodities from Russia, so eventually reduced demand will feed through into lower prices.