One Side Knows How To Fight A War, And It’s Not Russia:
https://10ztalk.com/2022/05/09/one-side-knows-how-to-fight-a-war-and-its-not-russia/
https://10ztalk.com/2022/05/09/one-side-knows-how-to-fight-a-war-and-its-not-russia/
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
That story is truly weird - went to be treated by a shaman with the poison from a toad.
Sounds like Nacho Vidal.
Peter Zeihan on Russian oil production being halved by the end of the year. Starting at 10:50 mark he discusses what happened when demand fell at the end of the Soviet Union:
"The Russians at that point were producing roughly 11 million barrels a day of crude, and when internal demand dropped, and there wasn't sufficient external demand to make up the difference, pressure started building up back through the pipes to the well head. And when it reached the well head the Russians had a very simple choice to make: do we keep running it and risk the entire pipe system busting, and having leaks the entire 4,000 km length of the pipes or do we shut it in? So they shut it in.
"But Russia's oil production is in the permafrost, so the pipes go down through that frozen layer. As long as the liquid is moving that's not a problem, but once it stopped it started to expand a little bit, and it busts the rivets and it busts the pipes. So all the wells that were shut down in the late 80s, early 90s were shut down forever.
"We're starting to see that now, a situation where the pipes are backing up, refineries are going offline because they don't have anywhere to sell the crude to. And very soon, certainly within 2 months (said 2 weeks ago) the Russians are going to have to shut in production, and that production will be gone for decades. Because the last time this happened in 1988-92, they didn't get it back up online until this last December. So either way, the world is going to have to get used to 4-5 million barrels per day of less of Russian crude later this year."
This may explain part of the Russian threats to cut off oil. If they're gonna lose it anyway, why not threaten to take it away and see if that moves the political needle. Sounds exactly like how Putin operates according to Vexler. And may explain why they cut off Bulgaria though it seemed a strange political choice. But they're not worried about manipulating the politics of Bulgaria as much as Germany.
"The Russians at that point were producing roughly 11 million barrels a day of crude, and when internal demand dropped, and there wasn't sufficient external demand to make up the difference, pressure started building up back through the pipes to the well head. And when it reached the well head the Russians had a very simple choice to make: do we keep running it and risk the entire pipe system busting, and having leaks the entire 4,000 km length of the pipes or do we shut it in? So they shut it in.
"But Russia's oil production is in the permafrost, so the pipes go down through that frozen layer. As long as the liquid is moving that's not a problem, but once it stopped it started to expand a little bit, and it busts the rivets and it busts the pipes. So all the wells that were shut down in the late 80s, early 90s were shut down forever.
"We're starting to see that now, a situation where the pipes are backing up, refineries are going offline because they don't have anywhere to sell the crude to. And very soon, certainly within 2 months (said 2 weeks ago) the Russians are going to have to shut in production, and that production will be gone for decades. Because the last time this happened in 1988-92, they didn't get it back up online until this last December. So either way, the world is going to have to get used to 4-5 million barrels per day of less of Russian crude later this year."
This may explain part of the Russian threats to cut off oil. If they're gonna lose it anyway, why not threaten to take it away and see if that moves the political needle. Sounds exactly like how Putin operates according to Vexler. And may explain why they cut off Bulgaria though it seemed a strange political choice. But they're not worried about manipulating the politics of Bulgaria as much as Germany.
I couldn’t agree more with this. It is absolutely mind boggling that Ukraine still has jets & drones in the air.
A clip from Russian TV (probably posted here?) had a commentator talking about crowdfunding for commercial drones to be delivered to the front. I so hope that’s true.
It seems keeping UA supplied with the means to compete in the air, be it drones or otherwise, is one of the most crucial components for them to be able to continue to turn the tide.
The fact that they undertook low level bombing runs on Snake Island in broad daylight with seeming impunity is laughable. They did appear to fire off some chaff, but that was probably already part of the mission.
Not related to the conflict except for the slight topic deviation of May 9.
Bruh.
Bruh.
It’s actually incredibly impressive that they still have a functional WWI / Interwar tank.
However, there are other reports that Russia gets more money from oil now because of higher prices, so they don't need their savings, actually they may be making money since European consumption hasn't decreased that much.
Russia's entire federal budget for 2020 was around 280 billion dollars. Even without any sanctions and without other expenses than military, making money with those numbers (obviously with a big assumption that they are accurate) would be completely out of the question.
But again, if they can't access payments in euros, then that's not money they can use now to finance this war. Which is a nice thought.
Last edited:
Some more humanity in the midst of the insanity. There are a lot of heroes under the radar.
This cat deserves NPP consideration, definitely a nomination (although those are relatively simple to achieve).
Do you have any articles that can clearly verify this?
What I have read in WSJ points to the opposite. For example:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-oil-flows-but-increasingly-under-the-radar-11650541684
No mention of "Russians can't access payments".
It does not seem reasonable to me that the Russians, or anyone, would deliver anything without being able to access payments for that.
Last edited:
For sure he does.
I've done some searching, but I can only find a few articles that all go back to the same study by that think tank. However, I also found another article from the same Dutch newspaper (link) where the discuss this a little further, and reference Putin and Scholz both separately mentioning that Putin cannot access this money, with Putin saying that he needs those payments in rubles because payments in euros get frozen. So there really does seem to be something to it.
Yawn
This sounds like a fence sitting hedge by someone who should be providing more fidelity in her assessments (which she probably has in private, but can't reveal publicly).
It is indeed. But if they continue to lose tanks at the rate they are it could be getting rolled out to the front soon
Now imagine every Herschel Walker asking questions…
He’s the best.
When the war started he said that Russia are communists and communist countries inevitably starve, and Ukraine has a lot of grain, so Russia invaded them to take their grain and feed Russian people.
Just saw a poll where low IQ Herschel is trailing Warnock by 5. Not sure if that will hold, but encouraging.
Purely speculating, what would Russia gain from trading/economical perspective, if they would control all of Ukraines south and Transnistria? Strategically, this just seems like pure land grabbing effort, after government change in Kyiv failed. I know Donbass is rich in natural resources, but what good is it, if half the world has plans in place to stop trading with you, there's no way China will buy everything. Not to mention the whole infrastructure there needs to be rebuilt from scratch.
It would cripple Ukraine. As for Russia, no discernible benefit whatsoever for the reasons you mention unless you have an 18th century geopolitical mindset. The idea they could hold onto that territory is laughable to be honest.
Really not a fair poll, we don’t know which Herschel it is.
I don't think Putin has a coherent strategy. He knows he made a massive mistake by invading given what has happened over the past 75 days, but doesn't have a way to get out of it without looking like a feckless loser domestically. He therefore has to continue until he can point to a tangible victory he can sell to the Russian public. Trouble is, the damage of sanctions is greatly outpacing any military gains he's made (military gains are actually more so a quagmire than actual gains), to where he genuinely can't win under either scenario. Therefore the only plausible outcome will be that Russia gets hit hard domestically throughout the summer and beyond, to the point where it destabilizes him from within.
Last edited:
It would destroy Ukraine as we know it.
All we need now is Warnock to demolish him in a debate.
Back on topic, Transnistria could become a problem if something pops up there as Moldova just does not have the resources to contain nor counter the enemy's shenanigans. What would be the options for both Moldova and NATO in that potential scenario? We cannot let that pro-Russia enclave open a new front against Ukraine, but we also cannot let it destabilize Moldova either.
Last edited: