Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[DT12]

I noted from the beginning that Putin has made a massive mistake, which it appears he has. NATO has expanded and he has been severely weakened, as have Russia’s so called interests under his totalitarian dictatorship. Time to pull off the mask and concede this has clearly not gone to plan and Russia is far weaker today than it was 100 days ago.

As is every country in the world because of this war. And so the question becomes: what does the next 6 months look like? Who holds which cards? Because while the USA is making sure it's getting a monopoly on Russian uranium (while hypocritically bullying the EU into cutting itself off from Russian energy), I'm curious how you think the EU is going to magically transition to "cleaner energy" without buying all the stuff they'll need to do that from Russia. If you seriously think this country can be isolated from the global economy then you don't understand the basics of the issue.

 

[Cheimoon]

What I am saying is that Raoul is living on a separate planet (and has been since March if his posts in this thread can be reliably judged) if he thinks the West is going to keep on writing blank cheques for Ukraine, or that anyone in the West actually cares about that country beyond its ability to be used as a sacrificial pawn to weaken Putin's army.

Which is exactly why I think Russia might not win. The US will keep supplying weapons to Ukraine to ensure Russia isn't winning (but not necessarily defeated either). Cause every day the war continues, Russia gets a little weaker.

 

[Carolina Red]

Ooooh you're posting heterodox

You posted that you look forward to rubbing it in someone’s face that they were wrong about Ukraine winning… I don’t know what you expect folks to take from that.

 

[Frosty]

I don't see a particularly happy future for Europe if Putin wins, or at least if he satisfies his initial definition of winning.

Moldova and Georgia will soon be next, given they are outside of the EU and NATO.

If Putin succeeds in Ukraine they further attempts will be made to subvert Western European democracy. We have already seen attempts to interfere with elections and extra-judicial killings and that is before this war.

There may be more brazen attempts and threats made toward ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then perhaps a new Cold War?

I hate sounding like there is a clash of civilisations, but I do think that this conflict is far more existential in nature than given credit for.

 

[Frosty]

Too pessimistic for everyone?

 

[DT12]

You posted that you look forward to rubbing it in someone’s face that they were wrong about Ukraine winning… I don’t know what you expect folks to take from that.

I naively expected you to read the full post and take from it something other than a facile reduction.

 

[The Firestarter]

But remember folks don't send hateful PMs.

 

[WI_Red]

This thread will improve immeasurably if fatuous stuff like this stops being written, i.e "Ooooh you're posting heterodox, it means YOU WANT PUTIN TO WIN!"

What I am saying is that Raoul is living on a separate planet (and has been since March if his posts in this thread can be reliably judged) if he thinks the West is going to keep on writing blank cheques for Ukraine, or that anyone in the West actually cares about that country beyond its ability to be used as a sacrificial pawn to weaken Putin's army.

Yeah, never said you want Putin to win. I said it was weird you posting that you could not wait to gloat in a prediction that Putin/Russia were winning.
I, personally, think the GOP is going to take back congress this year. If someone said I was wrong I would reply with “I really hope you’re right”, not “I can’t wait to revisit this after the election”.

edit: what @Carolina Red said.

 

[Carolina Red]

I naively expected you to read the full post and take from it something other than a facile reduction.

I’m sorry that the truth hurts. It’ll be okay.

 

[Raoul]

As is every country in the world because of this war. And so the question becomes: what does the next 6 months look like? Who holds which cards? Because while the USA is making sure it's getting a monopoly on Russian uranium (while hypocritically bullying the EU into cutting itself off from Russian energy), I'm curious how you think the EU is going to magically transition to "cleaner energy" without buying all the stuff they'll need to do that from Russia. If you seriously think this country can be isolated from the global economy then you don't understand the basics of the issue.

It’s long overdue for the EU to transition to other sources that don’t involve coercion by an authoritarian dictatorship - whether it’s North American shale LNG, supply from the Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, or other sources.

Putin clearly miscalculated wildly when he thought he would swoop in and claim Ukraine in days, just as he did in underestimating global resolve and solidarity implementing devastating and indefinite sanctions on Russia until Putin leaves Ukraine and compensates it for its losses.

Even if he were to improbably call for a ceasefire tomorrow, the sanctions wouldn’t be eased until Russia compensates the Ukrainians for the damage they’ve done. This of course will never happen since Putin can’t be seen as weak and surrendering to the west, which means there likely won’t be any sanctions relief until Putin is dead or removed, and the international community has security assurances future Russian governments won’t prey on their neighbors anymore.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Thank you for writing this. Because yes, the lengthy post I wrote in the Newbies section very clearly stated that I do NOT support Putin (I wrote about the sense of bewilderment that existed here in St Petersburg in the days after February 24th, and how almost everyone here has either a friend, relative or colleague over in Ukraine in danger of getting shelled by Russian bombs now), I wrote that Putin's stupid, rambling, hour-long faux-intellectual lecture on Ukraine's legitimacy as a sovereign state falls apart if you go further back than his convenient starting point of 1922, I wrote about how his promise to de-Nazify Ukraine of its Jewish-installed (Kolomoiskiy) Jewish president was dumber than sh*t, and - it may not have been here but it was certainly somewhere online, I'll write it now anyway - ANY moral authority Putin may have ever felt he had over 'the West' and its war-mongering was napalmed when his bombs killed Ukrainian children in - among many other places - the theatre at Mariupol.

Let me state clearly: Putin is in the wrong here. And I don't write that because of any childish moral bullying in this thread about "you're defending war crimes!", but because my entire reason for posting on this forum having only lurked for 8 years was to offer a perspective that simply isn't getting posted here, but it needs to be. All I have done is offer my opinion on why Putin is going to win this war. And for that, I've been publicly called a "c*nt" by that guy who announced he's putting me on ignore (what is it with proponents of 'freedom and tolerance' and instantly shutting themselves off from alternate viewpoints while calling people "c*nts"? Is this what Western liberal democracy looks like these days? Is this what you're calling upon Russia to become?).

Europe does actually need to start at least considering that Putin is going to win this. And that in the years to come they are going to have extraordinary economic problems because of the decisions they are making now out of emotion and not calm analysis. I'll say what I said earlier: for all the US and the UK are congratulating the EU for irreversibly cutting themselves off from Russian energy (because it suits the US and UK economically that Europe is doing this; Boris Johnson in particular can't believe his luck in how utterly stupid his old enemy the EU is being right now), the US is still quietly buying all it needs from Russia, including Uranium.

Europe needs to ask itself this question: what would America do now if they were in our position? And the answer would be: not this. This is a country that a month after Saudi Arabia chopped up Khashoggi was selling half a billion dollars of weapons to the regime that did it so they could bomb Yemeni civilians. It's a country that invaded Grenada over a fruit company and Panama over a canal. And I don't write that in any condemnatory way but just as a fact. America is as successful and as powerful as it is because everything it does is in its economic interests. They never make cataclysmic decisions based on emotion or morality. Yet Germany is currently doing that very thing. As is France. And as is Italy. Last week the Prime Minister of Latvia was asked about potential economic problems for his country if the 6th round of Russian sanctions went though. You know what he said? "It's only money". An astonishing reply (but more understandable when you recognise that Eastern Europe's hopeful economic strategy is: "the United States will continue to bankroll us until the end of time"). Can you imagine an American politican saying that? "Sure our people are ready to suffer on behalf of another country, it's only money!" His career would be over the next day. This is a country whose elections are essentially decided on gas prices, not morality.

So my points here have been twofold. Firstly, Putin is going to win this war and it is long past time Europe starts to at least entertain this idea and figure out what will come next. And secondly, the prosperity that Western Europe - in particular Germany - has seen over the last 30 years has been due to their supposedly "unreliable" (and oh by the way unremittingly constant) flow of cheap Russian energy (CNN today had an article about how Europe is going to see a shift from the West to the East in terms of power dynamics within the EU). Without this, Germany would not have become the industrial powerhouse it is today. A decade from now Germany and France will be shells of what they were even 5 years ago in terms of the power and influence they have over European politics and business (don't forget, the politically friendless UK is hovering like a vulture ready to swoop in and feed off the EU's weakness). It is a misconception that non-Europeans have that the EU is a united bloc that helps each other out. It isn't, they are all suspicious rivals of one another (you'll notice how silent Poland and Bulgaria have fallen over the last week now that all these Ukrainian refugees are starting to complain about conditions). Putin knows this and is going to create havoc on the European continent in the years to come. And trust me, America is laughing its ass off right now at what Europe is doing, I mean their insane self-sabotage and willingness to float mouth-first onto a massive US energy hook. America is going to profit enormously from this war in the long term which is why they are going to do everything they can to prolong it, against the stated wishes of France and Germany, who will suffer most from it.

Finally: in an earlier post on here I said Donbas would fall to Russia by the end of June. I was mocked for writing it. Today the UK Ministry of Defence projected that Russia will take all of Luhansk within the next 2 weeks and after that Donesk will soon fall. You see, unlike Glaston's tweets, my posts on here are actually based on sober analysis of what's actually going on. For this I'm prepared to be unpopular but I'm not sure I warrant the "war-crime endorsing c*nt" epithet.

I don't make tweets - I don't even have a personal Twitter account. Most of my posts in this thread cite tweets from other individuals or organisations - they are not mine - so again you confuse the messenger with the message.

You claim that "Putin is going to win this war" - I very much doubt that. I also very much doubt that Russia will control the Donbas by the end of June. And further, if Russia is going to take all of Luhansk in the next two weeks (which the UK MoD did not say was definitely going to happen) then they'd better get a move on because first they have to:

(a) Take Severodonetsk (the Russians claimed to have taken it several days ago, but the latest reports say very much otherwise); and then ...

(b) Make succcessful pontoon-crossings over the big river than sits between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk ... all the while being overlooked from the high ground on which Lysychansk sits and being bombarded by artillery from Lysychansk; and then ...

(c) Advance towards (under artillery bombardment) and the take (fighting uphill) Lysychansk - which is very well defended.

And/or they can try to take Lysychansk from the south, using troops that are trying to advance from that direction, but then these troops still have to first get there, under artillery fire from high ground, and then they too will have to fight uphill against well-defended positions.

As for the rest, it's actually classic Russian propaganda - trying to create the impression of mega divisions within Europe, and between Europe and the USA and UK, with all these nations allegedly trying to do each other down and just waiting to claw at each other's throats. Meanwhile, back in the real world, Europe and NATO are more united than ever before, with more countries applying to join NATO and now Denmark wanting to sign up the EU's defence pact. Some differences exist, of course, as you'd expect amongst any large group of nations, but these are minor in comparison to the new found sense of opposition to Russia's fascism.

You are woefully ignorant about EU finance if you actually believe (as you claim) that Eastern Europe' is depending on America bankrolling them. The EU's economy is nearly one-third of global GDP (in comparison, Russia's GDP is less than that of Italy). The sanctions will damage the EU, but Russia's economy will be damaged far more - and the EU is far more able to absorb the economic costs because its economy is vastly larger than that of Russia.

 

[DT12]

It’s long overdue for the EU to transition to other sources that don’t involve coercion by an authoritarian dictatorship - whether it’s North American shale LNG,

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

 

[DT12]

Neither of those are facts.

I'll be charitable and assume you're joking here.

 

[Raoul]

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

I don’t care if it’s North American or not (even though the US is now the world top oil producer). There are plenty of other sources they can tap to where they don’t have to bow before a predatory dictatorship to fuel their cars and homes.

 

[Carolina Red]

I'll be charitable and assume you're joking here.

So you’re saying Operation Urgent Fury was for a fruit company and that Operation Just Cause was for a canal…?

Ooookay

 

[WI_Red]

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

Nailed it. I always knew @Raoul was an executive for big oil. I bet he is making millions off this war. I bet he dines on Ukrainian children and washes it down with a crude oil mimosa.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

Laughing is better than wiping them off the face of the planet, don’t you think?

 

[Carolina Red]

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

You’re so right. Not only are we modmins, we also pull the strings on the global natural gas market. Take a bow, you’ve figured us out.

 

[spiriticon]

It is in Europe's best interests to cut themselves off Russian gas, not the US. The more dependent you are on Putin's gas, the more land he can take without so much as a whimper.

Its a seriously flawed assumption to think that he will stop at just Ukraine.

If Europe prefers to surrender one by one because they are all addicted to Russian gas, by all means, but I'm getting the feck outta here before he reaches France.

 

[GlastonSpur]

I don't see a particularly happy future for Europe if Putin wins, or at least if he satisfies his initial definition of winning.

Moldova and Georgia will soon be next, given they are outside of the EU and NATO.

If Putin succeeds in Ukraine they further attempts will be made to subvert Western European democracy. We have already seen attempts to interfere with elections and extra-judicial killings and that is before this war.

There may be more brazen attempts and threats made toward ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then perhaps a new Cold War?

I hate sounding like there is a clash of civilisations, but I do think that this conflict is far more existential in nature than given credit for.

I completely agree. We are living through a pivotal moment in history. Luckily, most of the Western nations have recognised this.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

The EU's economy is nearly one-third of global GDP

No it isn't. The US and EU combined account for about 30%.

It’s long overdue for the EU to transition to other sources that don’t involve coercion by an authoritarian dictatorship - whether it’s North American shale LNG, supply from the Qatar and elsewhere in the Middle East, or other sources.

There really aren't many sources of non-authoritarian oil. None, really, if you count Venezuela as authoritarian (Qatar is authoritarian). The sanctions don't make a lot of sense beyond sending a message of unity against Russia. Hard to see that holding up as winter comes.

As is every country in the world because of this war.

I think it's a war where everyone loses. Ukrainians obviously lose the most, Russians second most, Europeans third, and Americans fourth. It's bad all round.

I don't see a particularly happy future for Europe if Putin wins, or at least if he satisfies his initial definition of winning.

Moldova and Georgia will soon be next, given they are outside of the EU and NATO.

If Putin succeeds in Ukraine they further attempts will be made to subvert Western European democracy. We have already seen attempts to interfere with elections and extra-judicial killings and that is before this war.

There may be more brazen attempts and threats made toward ex-Warsaw Pact nations.

Then perhaps a new Cold War?

I hate sounding like there is a clash of civilisations, but I do think that this conflict is far more existential in nature than given credit for.

The last week or so reads to me like all actors have considered the only way out is a negotiated settlement (that's exactly what Biden said today and what thinktanks in America, which are hawkish, had said before). The thread is more pessimistic than the events of the past week imo. But no one knows what happens yet as Ukrainians are still happy to see what they can get on battlefield for now.

 

[spiriticon]

Of course there must be a negotiated settlement. Even if Ukraine reaches its borders, Russia will not stop shelling them all day, everyday for the next 10 years or until they literally have no more shells.

At some point one has to talk to Russia, but Ukraine needs to be given a chance to seize as much of their land back as they can before negotiations are reached.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

Good grief - your true colours are starting to show now.

Russia had better start facing reality: Europe will eventually be buying zero gas, zero coal and zero oil from Russia. There are plenty of other sources of these, and in any case, Europe is moving gradually towards using less and less of these commodities.

Short-term disruption and difficulty for Europe? Sure, but afterwards what remains of Russia's influence in the world will shrink even further and you'll be left as junior partner to China and very much dependent on their goodwill and custom.

 

[GlastonSpur]

No it isn't. The US and EU combined account for about 30%. ...

Yes, you're right ... or 42%% in nominal terms. But the point stands that the EU's economy is huge and in no way depends, contrary to the claim by the poster I replied to, on being bankrolled by America.

 

[alexthelion]

Blah, blah, blah

How exactly is Putin/Russia going to win?

 

[Raoul]

Good grief - your true colours are starting to show now.

Russia had better start facing reality: Europe will eventually be buying zero gas, zero coal and zero oil from Russia. There are plenty of other sources of these, and in any case, Europe is moving gradually towards using less and less of these commodities.

Short-term disruption and difficulty for Europe? Sure, but afterwards what remains of Russia's influence in the world will shrink even further and you'll be left as junior partner to China and very much dependent on their goodwill and custom.

Indeed. It appears each post begins with a “Let me begin by saying Putin is wrong”, followed immediately by a flurry of Putin friendly talking points. How strange.

 

[Rajma]

Aaaaaand there it is.

Don't be fooled, Europeans. Raoul (and the other American mods here) is laughing his ass off at you all. This whole "won't anyone think of the Ukrainian children!" shtick is vomit-inducing. They're playing you, as they always have.

We Europeans will gladly consume US LNG at a premium if that means less money for rascist regime, don’t you worry. I still didn’t receive from you a detailed answer on how exactly Russia finds workarounds for sanctions, meaning you’re happy to support the fascists at the helm. I don’t think you have a leg to stand on here.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Yes, you're right ... or 42%% in nominal terms. But the point stands that the EU's economy is huge and in no way depends, contrary to the claim by the poster I replied to, on being bankrolled by America.

Doesn't depend on being bankrolled by America, no, that's wrong. The problem for Europe is that it doesn't produce oil. The US and Russia produce the most amount in the world. One of those is on Europe's doorstep with pipelines installed and the other is thousands of miles across the Atlantic. I get why the EU imposed sanctions on Russia. Present a united front and see what they can do in terms of weakening Russia internally. Problem is that the world's oil supply doesn't just evaporate if the EU launches sanctions. Russia selling a discount currently is still making more than it did last year because of price rises caused by uncertainty which is directly linked to the war and paradoxically also to the sanctions.

China and India are the biggest winners here imo.

 

[calodo2003]

Still waiting on how a fruit company started the Grenada incursion.

 

[GlastonSpur]

... There really aren't many sources of non-authoritarian oil. None, really, if you count Venezuela as authoritarian (Qatar is authoritarian). The sanctions don't make a lot of sense beyond sending a message of unity against Russia. Hard to see that holding up as winter comes. ...

However, Qatar and Venezuela have not invaded a European nation, nor are they threatening to do so. Authoritarianism is one thing, fascism is another.

IMO the sanctions will remain in place at least until Putin is gone from office and Russia withdraws its forces to their pre-February 24th positions. If it takes many years, then that's how long the sanctions will stay in place. Putin has severely under-estimated Western resolve, just as he severely under-estimated Ukrainian resolve. And Russia will suffer far worse from the sanctions than will Europe and the West - we've barely begun to see the effects on Russia feed through as yet.

 

[WI_Red]

Still waiting on how a fruit company started the Grenada incursion.

they shipped Durians to Reagan instead of apples. If that doesn’t justify a war I don’t know what would.

 

[Rajma]

Doesn't depend on being bankrolled by America, no, that's wrong. The problem for Europe is that it doesn't produce oil. The US and Russia produce the most amount in the world. One of those is on Europe's doorstep with pipelines installed and the other is thousands of miles across the Atlantic. I get why the EU imposed sanctions on Russia. Present a united front and see what they can do in terms of weakening Russia internally. Problem is that the world's oil supply doesn't just evaporate if the EU launches sanctions. Russia selling a discount currently is still making more than it did last year because of price rises caused by uncertainty which is directly linked to the war and paradoxically also to the sanctions.

China and India are the biggest winners here imo.

We don’t give a flying feck who’s a biggest beneficiary, understand? As long we don’t support the the fascist regime with money to facilitate the genocide we’re grand. Energy commodity prices won’t be at the levels they’re now for long anyway. Once China starts to consume Russian oil at a massive discount there will be an excess oil in the market due to this switch.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

However, Qatar and Venezuela have not invaded a European nation, nor are they threatening to do so. Authoritarianism is one thing, fascism is another.

IMO the sanctions will remain in place at least until Putin is gone from office and Russia withdraws to its forces to their pre-February 24th positions. If it takes many years, then that's how long the sanctions will stay in place. Putin has severely under-estimated Western resolve, just as he severely under-estimated Ukrainian resolve. And Russia will suffer far worse from the sanctions than will Europe and the West - we've barely begun to see the effects on Russia feed through as yet.

I don't know. I think internal upheaval will cause cracks. It depends on how good the EU's alternatives are. But if oil/gas rise and keep rising, there won't be much appetite for sanctions among regular people. That's just how the world works. The economy, domestic, matters most. Used to say if gas in the US ever hit $10 a gallon there'd be a revolt. Not expecting a revolt but am expecting renewed efforts to bring this all to a halt before winter.

We don’t give a flying feck who’s a biggest beneficiary, understand? As long we don’t support the the fascist regime with money to facilitate the genocide we’re grand. Energy commodity prices won’t be at the levels they’re now for long anyway.

You don't speak for all of Europe. The alternatives are also somewhat genocidal (seen Saudi Arabia's record recently?). But as I said, I understand why the EU has taken the line it has.

 

[Rajma]

I don't know. I think internal upheaval will cause cracks. It depends on how good the EU's alternatives are. But if oil/gas rise and keep rising, there won't be much appetite for sanctions among regular people. That's just how the world works. The economy, domestic, matters most. Used to say if gas in the US ever hit $10 a gallon there'd be a revolt. Not expecting a revolt but am expecting renewed efforts to bring this all to a halt before winter.


You don't speak for all of Europe. The alternatives are also somewhat genocidal (seen Saudi Arabia's record recently?). But as I said, I understand why the EU has taken the line it has.

You’re right, I speak for all the decent Europeans with a right moral compass. That’s good enough for me. It’s your choice which side you want to be on.

 

[The Firestarter]

Indeed. It appears each post begins with a “Let me begin by saying Putin is wrong”, followed immediately with a flurry of Putin friendly talking points. How strange.

Almost like antihenry back in the day.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

You’re right, I speak for all the decent Europeans. That’s good enough for me. It’s your choice which side you want to be on.

Decency has nothing to do with it. How are you more decent if you use Saudi oil instead of Russian? There's a genocidal war in Yemen, too.

It's about the basic cost of living. There's a pragmatic element which comes into play because people aren't going to accept an endless decline for the sake of the Ukrainian war effort against Russia. That's the reality. All wars start off popular and eventually become unpopular. This will be no different. Not because Russia will have its reputation restored but because of the enormous economic crisis looming on the horizon which isn't just related to this war but is made worse by it.

 

[Carolina Red]

am expecting renewed efforts to bring this all to a halt before winter.

Well, we didn’t send them MLRS and HIMARS for nothing

 

[calodo2003]

Almost like antihenry back in the day.

Forgot about him. He was fun.

 

[Mciahel Goodman]

Well, we didn’t send them MLRS and HIMARS for nothing

Yeah, think that was to see how much Ukraine can win over next couple of months. To put them in best possible position for when negotiation starts. I think the next month is the most crucial one.

 

[Carolina Red]

Yeah, think that was to see how much Ukraine can win over next couple of months. To put them in best possible position for when negotiation starts. I think the next month is the most crucial one.

They are definitely systems built for the offensive. Hopefully they’ll be put to good use. It’ll be more than a month though before they’re in service, if they’re just now training on them.