Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion




This is more advanced than I expected. Will be interesting to see wether Denmark and Netherlands agree to this.
 
Pintu said:



This is more advanced than I expected. Will be interesting to see wether Denmark and Netherlands agree to this.
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It will be a hard sell in the Netherlands. The government isn't into it and I don't think there is currently a majority in parliament for it either. The line has been that the EU can promise whatever they want and call it whatever they want, but that Ukraine ultimately has to adhere to the same conditions as every other member for every step that goes beyond mere words.

Their compromise might be strong words about Ukraine absolutely being a future EU member, quietly accompanied by a document that sets out what's in reality a rather long roadmap to membership. (Since Ukraine apparently does really not meet many EU conditions for new member.) That wouldn't really change anything to Ukraine's current status and expectations though, and wouldn't send much of a signal to Russia, so that might not work for the others.

This might not be a pretty discussion.
 
cyberman said:
Surely NATO can march on Belarus then?
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I read that Ukraine is drafting up the plans to go on the counteroffensive if Belarus tries to get involved by taking Minsk temporarily. However, I feel that these extended military exercises by Belarus next to the Ukrainian boarder are only there to tie up the Ukrainian armed forces not allowing to allocate them to Donbass.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Why are those countries against Ukraine joining NATO?
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The EU, not NATO.

I don't know about Denmark, but the sentiment in the Netherlands is that all countries need to follow the established process to join the EU, that Ukraine can't be treated differently, and that Ukraine is far off membership by the established criteria for joining. (Underneath that, of course, is the worry to allow poor and/or corrupt countries into the EU, which makes them net recipients of EU money and which is costly for other members.)

In short, they're not against Ukraine being on a path towards membership, they're against a shortcut for Ukraine.
 
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MuFc_1992 said:
Why are those countries against Ukraine joining NATO?
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I think you've misread it, they're not against Ukraine joining NATO, they're against Ukraine joining the EU (as are Portugal and Sweden to name 2 others, and of course the UK, but they are going to fight Ukraine's ascension to their nemesis the EU for very different reasons).

edit: what Cheimoon said.
 
DT12 said:
I think you've misread it, they're not against Ukraine joining NATO, they're against Ukraine joining the EU (as are Portugal and Sweden to name 2 others, and of course the UK, but they are going to fight Ukraine's ascension to their nemesis the EU for very different reasons).

edit: what Cheimoon said.
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Sorry I meant EU. Anyways, what is the general sentiment in those countries towards their govt. being against Ukraine joining EU? I thought Germany and France were the ones who were being weak on Ukraine but it seems like Netherlands, Denmark etc. are getting a free pass from the press. I know due process matters but Ukraine will have to be built from ground up after this so, not sure why they are being so pedantic about everything.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Sorry I meant EU. Anyways, what is the general sentiment in those countries towards their govt. being against Ukraine joining EU? I thought Germany and France were the ones who were being weak on Ukraine but it seems like Netherlands, Denmark etc. are getting a free pass from the press. I know due process matters but Ukraine will have to be built from ground up after this so, not sure why they are being so pedantic about everything.
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LGBT rights, corruption is my guess.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
Sorry I meant EU. Anyways, what is the general sentiment in those countries towards their govt. being against Ukraine joining EU? I thought Germany and France were the ones who were being weak on Ukraine but it seems like Netherlands, Denmark etc. are getting a free pass from the press. I know due process matters but Ukraine will have to be built from ground up after this so, not sure why they are being so pedantic about everything.
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Ukraine, like Russia, is a corrupt oligarchy, and it doesn't come remotely close to reaching the EU's stated criteria for joining. 'Zelenskiy' is hoping he can emotionally blackmail the EU into footing the bill for rebuilding his country into an EU-worthy country ("We fought and died for your freedom Europe, now you all need to go poorer, hungrier and colder to repay us!"). Macron and Scholz are saying they fully support Ukraine's candidacy because they know there is not a chance in hell Ukraine will ever be joining the EU. As you said, Macron and Scholz have come under immense and mostly unwarranted criticism for not giving their full support to Ukraine. Going there today and pretending to want them in the EU (France, Germany and Italy don't want Ukraine anywhere near the EU, it's the one thing they have in common with the UK, though like I said it's for very different reasons) is a very easy way for them to shift future blame onto the likes of Sweden, Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark.
 
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DT12 said:
Ukraine, liike Russia, is a corrupt oligarchy, and it doesn't come remotely close to reaching the EU's stated criteria for joining. Macron and Scholz are saying they fully support Ukraine's candidacy because they know there is not a chance in hell Ukraine will be joining the EU this side of 2035. As you said, Macron and Scholz have come under immense and mostly unwarranted criticism for not giving their full support to Ukraine. Going there today and pretending to want them in the EU (make no mistake, France, Germany and Italy don't want Ukraine anywhere near the EU, it's the one think they have in common with the UK) is a very easy way for them to shift future blame onto the likes of Sweden, Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark.
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Well it is time for some desperate moves as Russia is slowly started to dominate and will carve off Ukrainian east. It sucks. The same way it sucked when NATO carved Serbia's south.
 
DT12 said:
Ukraine, like Russia, is a corrupt oligarchy, and it doesn't come remotely close to reaching the EU's stated criteria for joining. 'Zelenskiy' is hoping he can emotionally blackmail the EU into footing the bill for rebuilding his country into an EU-worthy country ("We fought and died for your freedom Europe, now you all need to go poorer, hungier and colder to repay us!"). Macron and Scholz are saying they fully support Ukraine's candidacy because they know there is not a chance in hell Ukraine will ever be joining the EU. As you said, Macron and Scholz have come under immense and mostly unwarranted criticism for not giving their full support to Ukraine. Going there today and pretending to want them in the EU (France, Germany and Italy don't want Ukraine anywhere near the EU, it's the one thing they have in common with the UK, though like I said it's for very different reasons) is a very easy way for them to shift future blame onto the likes of Sweden, Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark.
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So how do you recon western world should've reacted to the Russian invasion? The whole idea of west collapses IMO if we stood by doing nothing considering the staggering number of Civilians(20K+ in Mariupol alone) that are being killed in this conflict. Do you really recon there was an option for the western leaders to do nothing? I personally believe they've acted like absolute cowards and are partly responsible for all the deaths.
 
MuFc_1992 said:
So how do you recon western world should've reacted to the Russian invasion? The whole idea of west collapses IMO if we stood by doing nothing considering the staggering number of Civilians(20K+ in Mariupol alone) that are being killed in this conflict. Do you really recon there was an option for the western leaders to do nothing? I personally believe they've acted like absolute cowards and are partly responsible for all the deaths.
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Bar direct war with Russia I can't see what Western countries can do more. Also well, mainly the US gets flack when it does intervene and then gets flack when it doesn't. You could say Germany is dragging its feet too much but that's about it.
 
Fair bit of good footage out this morning...

Another of yesterdays chopper hit in Donesk, like a scene from Top Gun. Demonstrates the effectiveness of flares, then what happens when you run out...

 
Gehrman said:
Bar direct war with Russia I can't see what Western countries can do more. Also well, mainly the US gets flack when it does intervene and then gets flack when it doesn't. You could say Germany is dragging its feet too much but that's about it.
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Russia blockading Ukraine's Black Sea ports affects the whole world, and is enough reason for the west/NATO to get stuck in there. For instance, Sweden is not even a member of NATO but if Russia tried to invade Gotland then NATO would intervene in minutes because of the strategic importance of that island.
 
Eurotrash said:
Russia blockading Ukraine's Black Sea ports affects the whole world, and is enough reason for the west/NATO to get stuck in there. For instance, Sweden is not even a member of NATO but if Russia tried to invade Gotland then NATO would intervene in minutes because of the strategic importance of that island.
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So essentially you want a direct war between nuclear powers? Because that is what would happen.
 
How did Hungary manage to get into the EU?
Were they so different when they joined or were the prerequisites not as hard?
 
BayernFan87 said:
How did Hungary manage to get into the EU?
Were they so different when they joined or were the prerequisites not as hard?
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I think over the years a fair few countries have sneaked in that technically didn't meet the criteria but yes their current president has eroded and corrupted their democracy to a great degree using similar tactics to the likes of Putin and Boris.
 
DT12 said:
Ukraine, like Russia, is a corrupt oligarchy, and it doesn't come remotely close to reaching the EU's stated criteria for joining. 'Zelenskiy' is hoping he can emotionally blackmail the EU into footing the bill for rebuilding his country into an EU-worthy country ("We fought and died for your freedom Europe, now you all need to go poorer, hungier and colder to repay us!"). Macron and Scholz are saying they fully support Ukraine's candidacy because they know there is not a chance in hell Ukraine will ever be joining the EU. As you said, Macron and Scholz have come under immense and mostly unwarranted criticism for not giving their full support to Ukraine. Going there today and pretending to want them in the EU (France, Germany and Italy don't want Ukraine anywhere near the EU, it's the one thing they have in common with the UK, though like I said it's for very different reasons) is a very easy way for them to shift future blame onto the likes of Sweden, Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark.
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Why do you always put his name in quotation marks?
 
Eurotrash said:
Yes, because the alternative is worse.
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Part of me wants to see a western coalition too, but first of all the west has fatigue of spending vast fortunes on war and their soldiers dying in foreign countries, but I just think the possible looming threat of nuclear war is more than anyone wants to stomach.

Truth is the government's are there to act in the self interest of their citizens not risk everything for Ukraine.
 
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Pintu said:



This is more advanced than I expected. Will be interesting to see wether Denmark and Netherlands agree to this.
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It's a show of support for sure, but they still have to go through the necessary steps to become a member and, that will be very difficult for them as it was for all the former soviet enslaved nations. I suspect the Netherlands will be the biggest obstacle as they have been in the past for other members with both the EU and Schengen (ironically or not, for Romania). But as long as France and Germany speak the same language, a solution will be found IMO.
 
BayernFan87 said:
How did Hungary manage to get into the EU?
Were they so different when they joined or were the prerequisites not as hard?
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It is similar to Le Pen, and many other political factions in Europe that want to break the EU and become little autocrats. In Hungary it succeeded to gain enough traction to get power. The same danger exists in most other member states. All countries in Europe have their political Putin and dictatorship lovers that use nationalism to support them. Even GB was seduced by the anti EU rhetoric leading to Brexit. The Kremlin propaganda over the last couple of decades has done major damage by convincing a lot of people that everything to do with the west/US/non Christian/ non your nationality/ etc is bad; the strategy is the same, the message of implementation differs to appeal to the characteristics of the people.
 
MTF said:
The only consistent things about Joe Biden are that he is cautious, and that he likes to shift blame to others. The alternative was worse, but he's still so underwhelming.
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Biden is quite terrible. Imagine how bad the other candidate was if he lost to freakin Joe Biden!

I used to be a fan of Biden but it really is turning out to just be "better than Trump" and nothing else. Donating a further billion to the war when shit is hitting the fan here is none sense. Just controlled by military economy.
 
shamans said:
Biden is quite terrible. Imagine how bad the other candidate was if he lost to freakin Joe Biden!

I used to be a fan of Biden but it really is turning out to just be "better than Trump" and nothing else. Donating a further billion to the war when shit is hitting the fan here is none sense. Just controlled by military economy.
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Until the political system in the US is changed, all presidencies will be exactly the same.
 
shamans said:
Biden is quite terrible. Imagine how bad the other candidate was if he lost to freakin Joe Biden!

I used to be a fan of Biden but it really is turning out to just be "better than Trump" and nothing else. Donating a further billion to the war when shit is hitting the fan here is none sense. Just controlled by military economy.
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I do think long term though it’s hard to ignore Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine is the right, albeit hard domestically, thing to do. $1b is a huge amount of money, no doubt, but it’s a drop of water in ocean of the US economy, issue is surely more on policies and things that should be improved before money is thrown in?
 
Gehrman said:
Part of me wants to see a western coalition too, but first of all the west has fatigue of spending vast fortunes on war and their soldiers dying in foreign countries, but I just think the possible looming threat of nuclear war is more than anyone wants to stomach.

Truth is the government's are there to act in the self interest of their citizens not risk everything for Ukraine.
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For me, the failure to act makes nuclear war more likely, not less. This war isn't just about Ukraine, and Putin has said that clearly. If he wins, he moves onto the next target, and before long that target is going to become the NATO member Baltic states. He'll rationalize it to himself as the west are weak, they didn't stop me before, and they won't risk their own safety by trying to stop me now for the sake of a small country no-one really cares about. And he'll be wrong.

It really is exactly the same mentality that led Hitler into WW2. It's important that people realize that.
 
Kentonio said:
For me, the failure to act makes nuclear war more likely, not less. This war isn't just about Ukraine, and Putin has said that clearly. If he wins, he moves onto the next target, and before long that target is going to become the NATO member Baltic states. He'll rationalize it to himself as the west are weak, they didn't stop me before, and they won't risk their own safety by trying to stop me now for the sake of a small country no-one really cares about. And he'll be wrong.

It really is exactly the same mentality that led Hitler into WW2. It's important that people realize that.
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Exactly, it really is this simple. You have to draw a line some time, it's 2022 for goodness sakes, and say every country right now on the map is sovereign - any act of aggression by others to change that has to be stamped out and the aggressor made to pay tenfold. Putin is a throwback to a time humans didn't know better, he's a dinosaur, essentially trying to erase the proof of how much better life can be post Russia.
 
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