Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

VorZakone said:
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Never going to happen, especially not with Russia ramping up nuclear weapons programs.

The real problem is that Russia never denuclearized itself quickly enough after 1991 and were seeking for any excuse to get out of all treaties while the West went too far ahead without keeping an eye for proportionality in the mutual denuclearization process.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Never going to happen, especially not with Russia ramping up nuclear weapons programs.

The real problem is that Russia never denuclearized itself quickly enough after 1991 and were seeking for any excuse to get out of all treaties while the West went too far ahead without keeping an eye for proportionality in the mutual denuclearization process.
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wasn't it the trump administration which pulled out of the denuclearization treaty? the one that limited each side's stock? pretty sure it was.
 
VorZakone said:
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To believe that nuclear deterrents are useless at this point in time, you would have to believe that; had Ukraine retained its nukes Russia would still have invaded, that Russia's nukes played no part in the wests thinking around how to respond and that removing them right now to give Russia its win wouldn't encourage further aggression or coercion.

All this following an attack on a previously non aligned non nuclear country.

Great thinking there, we should definitely do this Steve what could possibly go wrong?
 

It’s crazy how few in Europe listened to the warnings from Poland/Baltics that imperialist Russia will weaponize the energy supplies when the time comes, you only needed to have alternatives to switch to quickly and some contingency planning. This is a feck up of enormous proportions.
 
Rajma said:
It’s crazy how few in Europe listened to the warnings from Poland/Baltics that imperialist Russia will weaponize the energy supplies when the time comes, you only needed to have alternatives to switch to quickly and some contingency planning. This is a feck up of enormous proportions.
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You are right. Add to that the simple fact that Russia had a KGB president who crushed democracy in his country. And the fact that Russians tried to cause problems inside many Western countries. And the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. And many many other indications that Russia is a big problem.

After all that, I wonder what did the numerous "security analysts" advice in their reports to the politicians? And what did the Western politicians decide to do and why? It is crazy that in 2021 some European politicians were still enthusiastic about Nord Stream 2. Why did we have so much complacency in the West?
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
To believe that nuclear deterrents are useless at this point in time, you would have to believe that; had Ukraine retained its nukes Russia would still have invaded, that Russia's nukes played no part in the wests thinking around how to respond and that removing them right now to give Russia its win wouldn't encourage further aggression or coercion.

All this following an attack on a previously non aligned non nuclear country.

Great thinking there, we should definitely do this Steve what could possibly go wrong?
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I mean, if it's just about the nukes close to the border, the question is if this wouldn't just be a symbolic act Putin could sell as a victory. When a single MAD submarine is enough to wipe out Russi, it's not as if you'd give up all deterrents you have.

Just for the record, I don't support his idea.
 
frostbite said:
You are right. Add to that the simple fact that Russia had a KGB president who crushed democracy in his country. And the fact that Russians tried to cause problems inside many Western countries. And the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. And many many other indications that Russia is a big problem.

After all that, I wonder what did the numerous "security analysts" advice in their reports to the politicians? And what did the Western politicians decide to do and why? It is crazy that in 2021 some European politicians were still enthusiastic about Nord Stream 2. Why did we have so much complacency in the West?
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$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
 
frostbite said:
After all that, I wonder what did the numerous "security analysts" advice in their reports to the politicians? And what did the Western politicians decide to do and why?
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A lot of it is what Simbo says here…
Simbo said:
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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To look at just one example… I follow UK MOD happenings just as a hobby because I like military history etc. and for years and years security analysts and military leaders warned the government that the British military was becoming a paper tiger in the name of saving £’s, but politicians continued to make decisions to cut capabilities and patch the holes over with “new technologies” that didn’t come to fruition. The 2015 and 2021 Defense white papers have started to try and reverse it, but they’ve got a lot of damage done to overcome.
 
Carolina Red said:
To look at just one example… I follow UK MOD happenings just as a hobby because I like military history etc. and for years and years security analysts and military leaders warned the government that the British military was becoming a paper tiger in the name of saving £’s, but politicians continued to make decisions to cut capabilities and patch the holes over with “new technologies” that didn’t come to fruition. The 2015 and 2021 Defense white papers have started to try and reverse it, but they’ve got a lot of damage done to overcome.
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This has happened in a lot of European countries. Since the end of the cold war most western European countries have masively cut the spending on their armed forces and comletely ignored the security threats that still exist.
 
Simbo said:
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Carolina Red said:
A lot of it is what Simbo says here…

To look at just one example… I follow UK MOD happenings just as a hobby because I like military history etc. and for years and years security analysts and military leaders warned the government that the British military was becoming a paper tiger in the name of saving £’s, but politicians continued to make decisions to cut capabilities and patch the holes over with “new technologies” that didn’t come to fruition. The 2015 and 2021 Defense white papers have started to try and reverse it, but they’ve got a lot of damage done to overcome.
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Yes, it is money and corruption. And Putin definitely invested heavily in the corruption of our societies. Even today, after such a terrible war and so many dead Ukrainians, nobody investigates or blames anyone, like nothing happened at all and all the politicians and decision makers have zero responsibility. I haven't even read any investigative journalism talking about these issues.
 
frostbite said:
Yes, it is money and corruption. And Putin definitely invested heavily in the corruption of our societies. Even today, after such a terrible war and so many dead Ukrainians, nobody investigates or blames anyone, like nothing happened at all and all the politicians and decision makers have zero responsibility. I haven't even read any investigative journalism talking about these issues.
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It’s mad how little coverage it gets. 4 years ago a money laundering investigation uncovered $234 Billion (with a B) was funnelled from Russia into various banks, trusts, shell companies, etc in the west through a single Estonian branch of a Danish bank between 2007-2014.

That’s just one instance, how much cash do we think the Russian elite have laundered in total since Putin took control? A trillion is probably lowballing it. There are countless places pretty much set up to hide this kind of money, in the US, UK/offshores, etc and don’t get me started on crypto. This money can be all too easily weaponised. Whenever I hear someone talking some random bollocks that just so happens fits in to the Russian narrative, it’s the first thing that comes to mind.
 
Carolina Red said:
A lot of it is what Simbo says here…

To look at just one example… I follow UK MOD happenings just as a hobby because I like military history etc. and for years and years security analysts and military leaders warned the government that the British military was becoming a paper tiger in the name of saving £’s, but politicians continued to make decisions to cut capabilities and patch the holes over with “new technologies” that didn’t come to fruition. The 2015 and 2021 Defense white papers have started to try and reverse it, but they’ve got a lot of damage done to overcome.
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The UK went with a pipeline to Norwegian gas rather than rely on Russian supply. In the end there is only so much pie to divide up. If you want a national health service you can't spend so much on defence.
 
Simbo said:
It’s mad how little coverage it gets. 4 years ago a money laundering investigation uncovered $234 Billion (with a B) was funnelled from Russia into various banks, trusts, shell companies, etc in the west through a single Estonian branch of a Danish bank between 2007-2014.

That’s just one instance, how much cash do we think the Russian elite have laundered in total since Putin took control? A trillion is probably lowballing it. There are countless places pretty much set up to hide this kind of money, in the US, UK/offshores, etc and don’t get me started on crypto. This money can be all too easily weaponised. Whenever I hear someone talking some random bollocks that just so happens fits in to the Russian narrative, it’s the first thing that comes to mind.
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The West does a terrible job of making sure we all know how criminal the Russia regime is. Isn't it time they start making this stuff front page news? I can see how, in the past, hoping to lull Russia into normalizing relations by offering access to the West, you'd want to minimalist these things, so your own citizens don't demand you hold them to account and apply leverage.
 
Beans said:
The West does a terrible job of making sure we all know how criminal the Russia regime is. Isn't it time they start making this stuff front page news? I can see how, in the past, hoping to lull Russia into normalizing relations by offering access to the West, you'd want to minimalist these things, so your own citizens don't demand you hold them to account and apply leverage.
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The money laundering stuff through a Danish bank was front page stuff here in Denmark for weeks.
 
Gehrman said:
The money laundering stuff through a Danish bank was front page stuff here in Denmark for weeks.
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I think it was the main news in all of the Nordic countries. It wasn't just Danske Bank that got cought either, from memory at least DNB, Swedbank and Nordea have similar investigations ongoing against them just not on the same scale as Danske Bank.
 
Gehrman said:
The money laundering stuff through a Danish bank was front page stuff here in Denmark for weeks.
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I suppose I only check the US and UK news, and not as regularly in the past as more recently.

Even if it was headline news here, I just generally mean that the news will repeat false Russian claims and I don't feel like I hear about their dirt nearly as often as their fake claims. It would be helpful, for the sorts in the US especially on the right who want to pick up Russian propaganda claims as a stick with which to beat the Democrats.

Your average American doesn't know enough about what Russia really is, a criminal state.
 
Simbo said:



Here we go?
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The Russians have been building a pontoon bridge next to it in the last couple of days, after it was heavily damaged by the last strikes. Will be interesting to see if they have taken down both the pontoon and the Antonovsky bridge, if so the Russian troops in and around Kherson are cut off from any resupplies right now.
 
stefan92 said:
Putin himself acted quite friendly to Europe/"the West" in earlier years...
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The film Putin's Witnesses (2018) is absolutely fascinating and has a number of candid interviews from his early presidential years. He openly talks about wanting to ensure that he governs in a manner where he can seemingly step back into society once his term ends and have a family life, not understanding those who want to become a dictator for life. It's quite remarkable and he appears very sincere.
 
TMDaines said:
The film Putin's Witnesses (2018) is absolutely fascinating and has a number of candid interviews from his early presidential years. He openly talks about wanting to ensure that he governs in a manner where he can seemingly step back into society once his term ends and have a family life, not understanding those who want to become a dictator for life. It's quite remarkable and he appears very sincere.
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One of the first things they learn at KGB is to lie about everything. You and me can be fooled, but the various security services of the western countries? I don't think so. Which makes is very strange that western leaders where "surprised" he was lying all along. Like Merkel ( who grew up in East Germany ffs !!! )
 
TMDaines said:
The film Putin's Witnesses (2018) is absolutely fascinating and has a number of candid interviews from his early presidential years. He openly talks about wanting to ensure that he governs in a manner where he can seemingly step back into society once his term ends and have a family life, not understanding those who want to become a dictator for life. It's quite remarkable and he appears very sincere.
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Yeah, but his actions between when he was the #2 guy to Sobchak and then the #2 guy to Yeltsin tell a different story.
 
frostbite said:
One of the first things they learn at KGB is to lie about everything. You and me can be fooled, but the various security services of the western countries? I don't think so. Which makes is very strange that western leaders where "surprised" he was lying all along. Like Merkel ( who grew up in East Germany ffs !!! )
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In a democracy the intelligence services have no executive power. So whatever they advise, its up to the elected officials to act as they see fit. See Trump and his distrust for the IC . That being said, it's indeed possible that the German services have been compromised from the get go.
 
The outrage on Twitter over Zelensky and his wife appearing in Vouge is pathetic.
 
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