Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Purley King said:
Forgive my ignorance but all these Chechen soldiers.
Obviously they are being paid but surely there will be a time where they say “feck that I’m not dying in this shitshow “?
Click to expand...
The issue with Chechnya is that their families are basically held hostage — not literally but if they decide to run away, at the very least they are going to be disowned, at worst their family members can be kidnapped/arrested (sometimes it's hard to spot a difference between the two). Defectors are also going to be in danger for life whenever they flee — if it's in Russia, Chechen policemen can semi-legally steal people even from other regions; if it's somewhere abroad it's obviously much safer but there were still cases of different Chechen defectors (LGBT activists, political activists, women that escaped arranged marriages etc.) getting kidnapped back to Chechnya or even killed (Mamikhan Umarov in Austria, Imran Aliev in France).

I'm not just speculating btw — there are tons of examples on every "punishment". The latest infamous case was with the Yangulbayev family — the father was a federal judge (already in retirement), his sons were political activists (one was a lawyer working for a non-government organization named the "committee against torture"). In January 2021 the eldest son came public saying that around 40 of his relatives are missing, after a few days police raided his house (outside of Chechnya) under the suspicion of terrorist activity, later that month police raided the father's flat (again, not in Chechnya), letting him go (he still had immunity as a retired judge) but taking his wife back to Chechnya — originally as a "witness" but later as a perpetrator of some insane crimes which included kicking the shit out of multiple policemen while resisting arrest. She's still under arrest. Kadyrov has said, openly, that the entire family are terrorists and they'll make sure that their place is either in jail or below the ground.
 
Last edited:
harms said:
The issue with Chechnya is that their families are basically held hostage — not literally but if they decide to run away, at the very least they are going to be disowned, at worst their family members can be kidnapped/arrested (sometimes it's hard to spot a difference between the two). Defectors are also going to be in danger for life whenever they flee — if it's in Russia, Chechen policemen can semi-legally steal people even from other regions; if it's somewhere abroad it's obviously much safer but there were still cases of different Chechen defectors (LGBT activists, political activists, women that escaped arranged marriages etc.) getting kidnapped back to Chechnya or even killed (Mamikhan Umarov in Austria, Imran Aliev in France).

I'm not just speculating btw — there are tons of examples on every "punishment". The latest infamous case was with the Yangulbayev family — the father was a federal judge (already in retirement), his sons were political activists (one was a lawyer working for a non-government organization named the "committee against torture"). In January 2021 the eldest son came public saying that around 40 of his relatives are missing, after a few days police raided his house (outside of Chechnya) under the suspicion of terrorist activity, later that month police raided the father's flat (again, not in Chechnya), letting him go (he still had immunity as a retired judge) but taking his wife back to Chechnya — originally as a "witness" but later as a perpetrator of some insane crimes which included kicking the shit out of multiple policemen while resisting arrest. She's still under arrest. Kadyrov has said, openly, that the entire family are terrorists and they'll place is either in jail or below the ground.
Click to expand...
Thank you for the reply.
Wow , that really is a shitty situation.
Maybe a complete reset is the best option.
 
harms said:
Who knows, really. I doubt that Kadyrov is really interested in independence — Chechen economy is hugely reliant on the financial support from federal government. It’s been the trade-off between Putin and Akhmat Kadyrov (Ramzan’s father) — Putin showers Kadyrov with money and gives him virtually free reign over Chechnya, Kadyrov destroys the internal movement for Chechnya’s (or Ichkeria as they wanted to be called) independence and ensures that the terrorist threat to other Russian regions stops.

Without the money from the Russian federal budget Chechnya would be a very poor and still politically insignificant state and Kadyrov’s personal influence would for sure be significantly diminished.

Another scenario where Kadyrov tries to increase his influence over Russia and, say, tries to become Putin’s successor (I doubt that he’s interested in any other role) is also pretty much impossible to imagine if only because of the innate Russian nationalism — Chechnya & chechens were the boogie men of late 90’s-00’s and there’s still a significant dislike-to-hatred for people from Caucasian republics in general Russian population (denazification my ass).
Click to expand...
I'm aware of the current situation, but I wonder (and I guess Kadyrow does, too) what will happen to him if Putin is gone? Would a successor keep the current arrangement ongoing, or would he (whoever he would be) see Kadyrov as a risk he should get rid off. If it's the latter I guess it would make sense for Kadyrov to be president of his own insignificant state outside Russian reach (assuming the Russian army gets heavily beaten and generally in trouble) rather than being killed for being a political risk. Bit of a "all-or-nothing" experiment for him.
 
Blackouts across the Kharkiv region. Russia hitting the power grids putting eastern Ukraine into darkness.

Somehow knew they'd not leave without a sting in the tail.
 
matherto said:
Blackouts across the Kharkiv region. Russia hitting the power grids putting eastern Ukraine into darkness.

Somehow knew they'd not leave without a sting in the tail.
Click to expand...
Terrorising and killing civilians is what they do best so yeah, no surprises. When they have to fight against the army they run like chickens.
I think it's a given that they will try to destroy as much of the vital infrastructure before the winter as possible, especially the heating plants.
 
matherto said:
Blackouts across the Kharkiv region. Russia hitting the power grids putting eastern Ukraine into darkness.

Somehow knew they'd not leave without a sting in the tail.
Click to expand...
just heard they've targetted every power plant across ukraine. i thought this would happen in the event that ukraine made any advance. it's where it gets dangerously high alert for eveyone. it's a sign that russia will do things it has not yet done should it find itself on a major defensive.
 
neverdie said:
just heard they've targetted every power plant across ukraine. i thought this would happen in the event that ukraine made any advance. it's where it gets dangerously high alert for eveyone. it's a sign that russia will do things it has not yet done should it find itself on a major defensive.
Click to expand...

Think we now know what they were doing at Zaporizhzhia.
 
Very smart usage of missiles that cost over $10m each just to cause a few hours of blackouts.

 
dove said:
Very smart usage of missiles that cost over $10m each just to cause a few hours of blackouts.

Click to expand...

Electricity is back up again too in affected regions. Hundreds of millions of US dollars that could have gone into making lives of ordinary Russians better end up causing electricity disturbances for a few hours in Ukraine.
 
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
 
Rajma said:
Electricity is back up again too in affected regions. Hundreds of millions of US dollars that could have gone into making lives of ordinary Russians better end up causing electricity disturbances for a few hours in Ukraine.
Click to expand...

Yep, I agree. IF this is Russia's response to a significant collapse (obviously a massive if) then it's more indicative of their own impotence than anything else. However i suspect that there are more serious responses being planned. I might sound pessimistic but what I'm hoping for now is a Hitler 1944 style badly rushed, badly planned, poorly staffed, attack relying on non-existent armies and unrealistic supply lines. I can see that happening if Putin really has removed himself from the reality of the war, or is being deceived by his own generals, both of which seem quite possible. But i doubt knocking out a few power stations really is all Russia can muster.
 
stefan92 said:
I'm aware of the current situation, but I wonder (and I guess Kadyrow does, too) what will happen to him if Putin is gone? Would a successor keep the current arrangement ongoing, or would he (whoever he would be) see Kadyrov as a risk he should get rid off. If it's the latter I guess it would make sense for Kadyrov to be president of his own insignificant state outside Russian reach (assuming the Russian army gets heavily beaten and generally in trouble) rather than being killed for being a political risk. Bit of a "all-or-nothing" experiment for him.
Click to expand...
If the eventual successor is going to be more or less from the Putin's circle (I mean not someone like Navalny who would try to destroy most of the current institutions of power & rebuild them from the ground), I'd imagine that they would try & make the same deal with him. Replacing him would be a monumental task that may lead to the Third Chechen War, I'd imagine — and Kadyrov, the mindless illiterate oaf that he is, will probably see the situation similarly — he'll lose way too much if he'll try and proclaim republic's sovereignty (unless we entertain the scenario where Russia falls apart like U.S.S.R. did but I don't think that it's likely) — not just the finances but Russia will probably try to forcefully replace him in that case. Although trying to rationalize Kadyrov is a moot task, unlike Putin he isn't a smart person and neither does he have any smart people in his immediate surroundings. Plus he's horrendously impulsive.

It's really a hopeless situation where there isn't a realistic way to solve the issue without escalating it to a potential civil war, you can only prolong the status quo and hope for some Black Swan event. Who knows, maybe Ukraine will somehow play a part in his eventual demise.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
Click to expand...
If I had to take a guess I'd say Ukraine pushes back the Russians to pre-invasion borders and they call a ceasefire and that's it. But Ukrainian rhetoric lately seems to indicate they won't tolerate that solution so...
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?
Click to expand...

I think the Ukrainians would be counting on some kind of internal Russian upheaval for that scenario to play out. But it wouldn’t be unprecedented, it’s pretty much what happened to the Chinese in Vietnam in 1979.

It might also have happened in the Iran-Iraq war in 1982 if the Iranians had stopped their counter-offensive at the Iraqi frontier and agreed to a ceasefire (Iraq had initiated the war by invading Iran in 1980). Instead, they invaded Iraq and the war dragged on for another six years, ultimately producing no territorial change.

In both cases, the pre-war territorial status quo was ultimately preserved, although in the case of Iran and Iraq at least, the impact of the war on their societies and governments was immense.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
Click to expand...
It is the big question of this conflict. I'm guessing that the best bet is on demoralizing effect that this hypothetical win will project on Putin & Russian's internal politics. It's hard to try and to objectively predict the possibility of such scenario since I want it too happen quite desperately but if you imagine that, say, a year of this "special military operation" has gone by, Ukraine retook not only the newly-invaded territories but also took back the so-called DPR & LPR (and maybe Crimea, who knows?), while the economy is crumbling, the coffins keep on coming etc.

Otherwise, if Putin's grasp on Russia is still strong, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where he backs down, he's already gone way past a point where you count your losses and retreat.
 
VorZakone said:
If I had to take a guess I'd say Ukraine pushes back the Russians to pre-invasion borders and they call a ceasefire and that's it. But Ukrainian rhetoric lately seems to indicate they won't tolerate that solution so...
Click to expand...

I think that the conversations that happen privately between the West and Ukraine are very different from the current rhetoric about returning to the 1991 borders. I'd bet if today Ukraine were offered an immediate end to the war by not challenging the Crimean referendum and by giving up the areas of the Donbas that have been independent since 2014 they'd jump at the chance. Because that is currently not on offer I can see that it makes more sense for them to keep up the mantra of not one inch of land, etc..

If they maintain access to the Black Sea, and keep Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa, that would be a major win for them, given what they were facing earlier this year.
 
calodo2003 said:
Fingers crossed…

Click to expand...

Yeah, uncross them. It's a sensationalized version of something that had happened a couple of days ago and it is nothing like the name of the article suggests. Municipal deputies are just about the highest in modern Russia that you can get while not being supportive of Putin (and that's going to change after this round of election that ended today, I'd imagine). But they solve issues like park benches and pedestrian crossings, calling them "Kremlin officials" is not even a stretch, it's factually wrong.
 
VorZakone said:
If I had to take a guess I'd say Ukraine pushes back the Russians to pre-invasion borders and they call a ceasefire and that's it. But Ukrainian rhetoric lately seems to indicate they won't tolerate that solution so...
Click to expand...
It really looks like they're going to push back to the 2014 borders, they're not settling for half-measures (like they probably would in the first month of the war when the peace talks were still on-going). The only compromise I can see them going for is not pushing for Crimea but that's simply because logistically retaking Crimea seems like a very improbable task. But with the things going like they're going lately...
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Can someone explain how Ukraine “wins” this war? Like what would be the sequence of events?

Do they push all the invading forces back to the Ukrainian borders and the Russians just say “Well played, lads. Got us good. We’ll be off now. Sorry about all the drama” and life goes back to normal in the region?

I’m obviously being glib but what does the most optimistic end game for Ukraine realistically look like?
Click to expand...
UAf have demonstrated the capability to conduct large scale combined arms offensives, and that ability will only grow since the weapon deliveries will continue. So its not unrealistic to assume that they can push Russia all the way to the border. After that Russians will probably be more concerned of keeping Crimea than trying to get back into Ukraine : their capability is actually getting weaker every day. The best equipment is gone, they have to field mothballed stuff from the cold war. They can't manufacture modern units at scale because they lack the western supplied components Their ammunition is getting low - rumours of a deal with North Korea for artillery rounds stock. They are losing trained men but replacing them with conscripts or almost senior citizens.
The only thing they can realistically do is order full mobilisation. But unless they are planning to use them as a cannon fodder, they need equipment . And as we said, the stuff they are fielding rn is ancient. Also a full mobilisation basically grinds the economy to a halt , and creates very large discontent within the people. It is hard to justify if Russia itself has not been attacked. Which might be why the Ukrainians think twice before invading Crimea.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think that the conversations that happen privately between the West and Ukraine are very different from the current rhetoric about returning to the 1991 borders. I'd bet if today Ukraine were offered an immediate end to the war by not challenging the Crimean referendum and by giving up the areas of the Donbas that have been independent since 2014 they'd jump at the chance. Because that is currently not on offer I can see that it makes more sense for them to keep up the mantra of not one inch of land, etc..

If they maintain access to the Black Sea, and keep Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa, that would be a major win for them, given what they were facing earlier this year.
Click to expand...
I really doubt they would think it is a major win given the country being destroyed, many lives lost, the armed forces being stronger now.
 
harms said:
It really looks like they're going to push back to the 2014 borders, they're not settling for half-measures (like they probably would in the first month of the war when the peace talks were still on-going). The only compromise I can see them going for is not pushing for Crimea but that's simply because logistically retaking Crimea seems like a very improbable task. But with the things going like they're going lately...
Click to expand...
Can Putin still sell a success to the Russian public if they're pushed back all the way to pre-invasion borders? Technically speaking...he would still control the Donbas.
 
harms said:
Yeah, uncross them. It's a sensationalized version of something that had happened a couple of days ago and it is nothing like the name of the article suggests. Municipal deputies are just about the highest in modern Russia that you can get while not being supportive of Putin (and that's going to change after this round of election that ended today, I'd imagine). But they solve issues like park benches and pedestrian crossings, calling them "Kremlin officials" is not even a stretch, it's factually wrong.
Click to expand...
nimic said:
0% chance.
Click to expand...
Well, fart.
 
NicolaSacco said:
I think that the conversations that happen privately between the West and Ukraine are very different from the current rhetoric about returning to the 1991 borders. I'd bet if today Ukraine were offered an immediate end to the war by not challenging the Crimean referendum and by giving up the areas of the Donbas that have been independent since 2014 they'd jump at the chance. Because that is currently not on offer I can see that it makes more sense for them to keep up the mantra of not one inch of land, etc..

If they maintain access to the Black Sea, and keep Mariupol, Kherson, Odessa, that would be a major win for them, given what they were facing earlier this year.
Click to expand...
You couldn’t be more wrong. I don’t know a single Ukrainian who feels that way.

Can’t believe there’s actually people still writing that areas of the Donbas have been independent since 2014. They are Russian-occupied.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.