Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

If we wanted to surrender Ukraine, we should have done so on Feb 24th. Then we would have all saved billions in military costs and I wouldn't have to endure this shitty inflation for nothing.

If we surrender Ukraine now and Russia reaches Polish borders, then thank god for Brexit is all I say. I would also turn anarchic because I wouldn't trust any European government from here on.
 
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B20 said:
1. I don't think he gives a shit about that.

2. I think would be quite strong. Even China would have to pull the plug on him.

3. Yeah, I think a likely outcome is Nato claiming the airspace over all ukraine and from there blowing up all russian targets inside the Ukraine.

4. His personal power is also tied into his vanity, which is greatly assailed by all this. It's possible that anything but continuous escalation is unacceptable to him in the face of possible failure.

A lot depends on how it is deployed. 3. is the response if it's at a military target. If he strikes at a civilian target, the US won't stop at the Ukrainian border.
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If I die in a nuclear holocaust I'll make sure to think "B20 was right."

Or do you not think Putin will use nukes and you're just arguing the details?
 
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balaks said:
The west could also stop supplying weapons to them. They have more leverage over Ukraine than you think. Not saying this would happen but I perhaps have much less trust in the western leadership and their motives than some.
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But they won't do that, because they want democracy to prevail over totalitarian fascism.
 
Raoul said:
But they won't do that, because they want democracy to prevail over totalitarian fascism.
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And they have no reason to stand back. Russia stopped the gas exports to Europe and therefore now has no leverage left to fight the economic war and force Europe to retreat.
 
balaks said:
I fear you have quite a narrow and short sighted view of this.
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I fear you are close to what Putin and his gang view as the "useful idiots" in the west. No offence meant. But shitting your pants every time the word nuclear is mentioned is precisely what they want to provoke. People lived under actual threat during the 60s and 80s , this is not even close.
 
Raoul said:
:lol:

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Just shows how they're not serious. If they were smart they would only threaten Ukraine, that would scare people. Threatening the end of the world, they talk like Russia would survive after these launches. It's funny not scary.

Nukes have been around a long time. If it was human nature to end the world, it would have ended already.

This is a propaganda show. If you're gonna start a preemptive nuclear war, you don't announce it.
 
The Firestarter said:
I fear you are close to what Putin and his gang view as the "useful idiots" in the west. No offence meant. But shitting your pants every time the word nuclear is mentioned is precisely what they want to provoke. People lived under actual threat during the 60s and 80s , this is not even close.
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I am perfectly content with shitting my pants at the thought of nuclear weapons being used. Any sane person would also feel the same. I say this as someone who also grew up in the 80's. I shat myself then too.
 
nimic said:
Ah, we're back to this now? I am sure you realize this is exactly the train of thought the Russians want us to follow.
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I don't say it because I'm advocating it. Far from it. I just don't trust our leaders as far as I could throw them.
 
The Firestarter said:
I fear you are close to what Putin and his gang view as the "useful idiots" in the west. No offence meant. But shitting your pants every time the word nuclear is mentioned is precisely what they want to provoke. lived under actual threat during the 60s and 80s , this is not even close.
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I remember the 80s. What makes you think the threat of nuclear war was more real then than it is now?
 
balaks said:
I am perfectly content with shitting my pants at the thought of nuclear weapons being used. Any sane person would also feel the same. I say this as someone who also grew up in the 80's. I shat myself then too.
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If Russia really wants to have a nuclear war with NATO, they will have one, regardless of what happens in Ukraine. Ukraine is a mere sidestory.

You could replace 'Ukraine' with 'Moldova' or 'Georgia' or 'Poland' or 'Lithuania' and the nuclear war problem will still be there.

The only way to get out of the problem is the denuclearisation of Russia and that will not happen anytime soon.
 
Raoul said:
Its too late for that imo. By invading Ukraine and subsequently having the Ukrainians gain the upper hand, they are almost certainly going to reclaim all of Donetsk and Luhansk and if the Russian regime is sufficiently weakened, they will retake Crimea (especially if armed with US calibre weapons).
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I agree with the momentum shifting towards Ukraine but if I recall correctly even the Ukrainian military leadership themselves are saying this will at least drag on into 2023. I wouldn't be surprised if Putin can hold onto parts of the Donbas for a couple of years more.

Mind, I'm just thinking out loud what options Putin has left. It's not looking good for him.
 
While in general I don't agree with balaks in terms of what could and should be done to give Putin a way out, I really don't understand how anyone can be so sure nuclear weapons are off the table.

Every major event of this sort in history is unlikely to happen, until it actually happens. We are rationalizing Putin right now, the way Hitler was rationalized in 1930s (well, my wild guess is he was). It's not like history isn't littered with thousands of crazy leaders, we have no scale or method to measure just how crazy they are until they do their shit.

Still, as I said before, I don't agree with balaks. I don't really see what world should do other than what it's doing right now. We are all deep in this (obviously count myself as anti-Putin too) and no way should anyone give up. Even at the cost of nukes. When Kingdom of Yugoslavia's government signed pact with Nazi Germany in 1941, partisan protests immediately broke out and a saying "Bolje grob nego rob" was coined. It means "Better the grave than a slave" and coincidentally, it rhymes in both languages.

I'm not really scared that our lives would be endangered, but even if they were, should we just drop our heads down and let ourselves be run over?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I remember the 80s. What makes you think the threat of nuclear war was more real then than it is now?
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Two effectively equal in raw strength superpowers diamterically opposed ideologically, heck of a lot more nukes than now, inherent belief in the Soviet leadership that NATO nuclear attack is question of when not if, geriatric Soviet leaders who died frequently ( before Gorbachov), which every time that happened induced fears within Politbureau that NATO will use the confusion and attack, and on top of that crappy early warning systems that brought war very close several times https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo...petrov-the-man-who-saved-the-world-dies-at-77
 
Bosnian_fan said:
While in general I don't agree with balaks in terms of what could and should be done to give Putin a way out, I really don't understand how anyone can be so sure nuclear weapons are off the table.

Every major event of this sort in history is unlikely to happen, until it actually happens. We are rationalizing Putin right now, the way Hitler was rationalized in 1930s (well, my wild guess is he was). It's not like history isn't littered with thousands of crazy leaders, we have no scale or method to measure just how crazy they are until they do their shit.

Still, as I said before, I don't agree with balaks. I don't really see what world should do other than what it's doing right now. We are all deep in this (obviously count myself as anti-Putin too) and no way should anyone give up. Even at the cost of nukes. When Kingdom of Yugoslavia's government signed pact with Nazi Germany in 1941, partisan protests immediately broke out and a saying "Bolje grob nego rob" was coined. It means "Better the grave than a slave" and coincidentally, it rhymes in both languages.

I'm not really scared that our lives would be endangered, but even if they were, should we just drop our heads down and let ourselves be run over?
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No one is sure that nuclear weapons are off the table, but what can one do about it? A Russian hypersonic or ballistic nuclear missile can reach just about anywhere in Europe. They could nuke the UK for any stupid reason they can make up, and it doesn't have to be Ukraine. The only thing I'm 99% confident about is that we (the 'West') would never be the first to press the button.

If Russia wants a nuclear war, they will have one. The reason for starting one is really quite irrelevant.

I totally agree with your sentiment that we shouldn't let ourselves be slaves to nuclear fear.
 
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Bosnian_fan said:
While in general I don't agree with balaks in terms of what could and should be done to give Putin a way out, I really don't understand how anyone can be so sure nuclear weapons are off the table.

Every major event of this sort in history is unlikely to happen, until it actually happens. We are rationalizing Putin right now, the way Hitler was rationalized in 1930s (well, my wild guess is he was). It's not like history isn't littered with thousands of crazy leaders, we have no scale or method to measure just how crazy they are until they do their shit.

Still, as I said before, I don't agree with balaks. I don't really see what world should do other than what it's doing right now. We are all deep in this (obviously count myself as anti-Putin too) and no way should anyone give up. Even at the cost of nukes. When Kingdom of Yugoslavia's government signed pact with Nazi Germany in 1941, partisan protests immediately broke out and a saying "Bolje grob nego rob" was coined. It means "Better the grave than a slave" and coincidentally, it rhymes in both languages.

I'm not really scared that our lives would be endangered, but even if they were, should we just drop our heads down and let ourselves be run over?
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I'm with you on that. Ukraine shouldn't be a logical reason to use nuclear weapons for either Russia (as it isn't a direct threat to their national survival) or NATO. But if Putin wants to wag the nuclear threat irrationality to get leverage, then it doesn't matter if the issue is Ukraine or something else, the other side needs to be unaffected by the threat. I say this as someone who would almost certainly die in the early stages of an all-out nuclear exchange.
 
Putin using nuclear wars because he is losing (debateable) in Ukraine? I mean I think some of you guys are either scaredy cats or overestimating Putin's craziness.
 
So there will be an hour long speech tomorrow at 9am Moscow time, is that right?

We can dream it’s him stepping down, although we know it will be a long winded drawl as to why mobilisation is happening and how Russia is still really tough and strong and my dad’s harder than your dad.
 
balaks said:
I fear you have quite a narrow and short sighted view of this.
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If you believe this ends any other way than complete Russian withdrawal/retreat from Ukraine territories then I'll turn that comment back on you.

Any supposed 'escalation' people think Putin is capable of will only speed up that process.
 
Vidic_In_Moscow said:
Maybe he told his top 3 advisors 3 different plans and saw which one the Americans knew about first!
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Zeihan says that the US is listening to all his calls and reading all his emails. He hasn't said who his sources are but he's a DC think tank guy.
 
“When the Soviet system collapsed, the then KGB basically had a meeting where they discussed whether they should just release the nukes onto the world, not in terms of launch but sharing, so that then the United States would have to spend the next century dealing with it. They ultimately determined that though they had lost, and that was sad for them, that they didn’t want to be the end of the human condition, and so they kept the nukes bottled up the best they could. Putin was part of the organization that made that decision.”

Peter Zeihan in one of his videos. Thought that was interesting.
 
Beans said:
“When the Soviet system collapsed, the then KGB basically had a meeting where they discussed whether they should just release the nukes onto the world, not in terms of launch but sharing, so that then the United States would have to spend the next century dealing with it. They ultimately determined that though they had lost, and that was sad for them, that they didn’t want to be the end of the human condition, and so they kept the nukes bottled up the best they could. Putin was part of the organization that made that decision.”

Peter Zeihan in one of his videos. Thought that was interesting.
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Watch Navalny's documentary about Putin. The cnut was really well down the KGB ladder in early 90's to be taking part in any decision regarding nukes of USSR.
 
Water Melon said:
Watch Navalny's documentary about Putin. The cnut was really well down the KGB ladder in early 90's to be taking part in any decision regarding nukes of USSR.
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Yes, but it also shows the "Russian view" of such a situation, but it's just interesting, not definitive at all.

Putin hasn't shown the signs of a world ending maniac. He is a gambler, threats cost him nothing, and if it moves the needle, great.

The Russian government already made threats and didn't carry them out during this invasion.
 
His so called Anti-Western friends told him to stop this non-sensical war no later than three days ago, China still needs the West (and a sane world) to trade, India is booming and do not want to waste their window, Lavrov just entered the US to attend UN meeting, his pre-recorded call-to-the-nation has been abrutly postponed… mmh, I may well be a fool tomorrow but Mr P seems nearer to being done than us just now.
 
This waiting for Russia’s next move; I wonder if it was like this during the phoney war, the period between Hitler invading Poland until he steamed through Holland & Belgium. Was there hope then too that Hitler might stop?
 
What does Putin "win" by using nukes? Is there any military goal that using nukes would accomplish, other than causing fear (which can and has been done without nukes)?

On the flip side, they lose their main deterrent, any support or empathy they could have left (it's kind of difficult to disguise a nuke as a false flag operation from Ukraine) and the few economic partners they have left. And that's not even considering the possibility of retaliation.

I'm not saying it is impossible that happens, it's just counterintuitive and unlikely.
 
Beans said:
Yes, but it also shows the "Russian view" of such a situation, but it's just interesting, not definitive at all.

Putin hasn't shown the signs of a world ending maniac. He is a gambler, threats cost him nothing, and if it moves the needle, great.

The Russian government already made threats and didn't carry them out during this invasion.
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Agreed.
 
Beans said:
If I die in a nuclear holocaust I'll make sure to think "B20 was right."

Or do you not think Putin will use nukes and you're just arguing the details?
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I think it is at the least a fair bit further down the road than where we are now
 
Beans said:
I’ll repeat the question, sir. Do you think Putin will use nuclear weapons, gun to your head.
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I think there are scenarios where he would. And those scenarios are on the radar of possible outcomes in all this.

Still think the likeliest outcome is no nukes.
 
@harms I hope you and your loved ones can avoid being called up.
Do you have any idea how these news are received in Russia? Oh and has Putin called it a war yet? "Special military operation" doesn't sound like something you need the reservists for.
 
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The United said:
Putin using nuclear wars because he is losing (debateable) in Ukraine? I mean I think some of you guys are either scaredy cats or overestimating Putin's craziness.
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I don't think he ever could. I very much doubt he has a direct button to himself just in his bedroom. There would need to be approvals from others, even at a basic level of aiming the bomb somewhere. Someone else will know and all will stop him. Even if he is on a suicide mission, the rest aren't
 
Yep, the war is going so well that the next logical step is to call a mobilisation of course.

 
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