Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Kadyrov would struggle even to read this out loud, let alone to write it :lol:

We didn't have enough raisins?
It's "Izyum wasn't enough?".
 
It's fascinating that the hawks like Kadyrov or Igor Girkin are so on point in their analysis and yet the actual leadership doesn't seem to have a clue.

In other news: There has been a huge explosion at Belbek air field on Crimea. Looks like a plane didn't stop on the runway but crashed and exploded, so likely not a Ukrainian action (though maybe the plane was damaged and for that reason crashed) and I don't know if there has been any more damage than just this one plane. Still a loss is a loss.

Kadyrov is only coming in after something fails to criticize it. I haven't seen much in the way of him actually proposing things in terms of long term strategy at the beginning of the conflict. I personally think he's frustrated that Putin is only using his guys as cannon fodder in Ukraine and to squash unrest in Dagestan.
 

Not a good look at all

I don’t think they quite understand the way NATO operates, the process and the politics of it all. Ukraine is still years away from joining NATO, even if the war would end today.

Sadly NATO doesn’t operate like Russia, if it did:

Received application on Friday
Review on Monday
Acceptance on Tuesday
Russia kicked out of Ukraine on Thursday

It is a multi-step, long process. And they cannot join while at war. And even if they somehow worked around it, changing protocol etc. Then yeah, Ukraine would simply need to invoke Article 5 and NATO would be forced to act.

This idea of letting them join but not helping with an active war is just absurd.

Didn’t realise Craig David was involved in NATO
 
Kadyrov is only coming in after something fails to criticize it. I haven't seen much in the way of him actually proposing things in terms of long term strategy at the beginning of the conflict. I personally think he's frustrated that Putin is only using his guys as cannon fodder in Ukraine and to squash unrest in Dagestan.
That's true, but the points about leadership seem to make sense to me. Even if he might not have voiced these concerns before it all went wrong, it still looks like he understands some of the reasons why it went wrong. That's more than I see from most other Russian voices.
 
NATO's argument is that its a defensive alliance. That means it can't actively engage into war with someone unless its get attacked first. Since Ukraine is engaged into an active war then it can't join NATO as by doing so would mean dragging NATO into war.

I think that there is a workable walk around that. NATO won't engage into war with Russian troops within the Annexed regions but it would stop any Russian troops from pouring into non annexed regions. If Ukraine is able to to liberate let's say Crimea that such region would be incorporated within the NATO agreement.

Such deal would provide a safe haven to Ukrainians within their territory, it will keep Zaporizhzhia power plant safe and it would allow the Ukrainians to focus solely on the annexed regions as the rest would be protected by NATO. The Kremlin would end up in a situation were they have to be very careful on how to plan their attacks as they risk killing NATO soldiers which in turn would give NATO the casus belli they need to start an open war with Russia. Considering that most Russian soldiers are conscripts and that most of their technology is ancient, then such scenario would severely limit the Russian operations.

Putin is popular in Russia because he has a social contract with his people were they allow him to do whatever he wants as long as he doesn't physically drags them into war. How would they react at the thought of sending their own children to war knowing that they might be the first line in a war against the West?

It's a non issue, since unilateral annexation of territories by Russia means nothing internationally. Plus, as explained before, joining NATO is a long process. Additionally, the "Russian is fighting a war against the West" is being going on for months so it wouldn't have a different impact with today's scenario of partial mobilization.
 
That's true, but the points about leadership seem to make sense to me. Even if he might not have voiced these concerns before it all went wrong, it still looks like he understands some of the reasons why it went wrong. That's more than I see from most other Russian voices.
Girkin to replace Shoigu till the end of the season?
 
Girkin to replace Shoigu till the end of the season?
Girkin for Gerasimov would be one of the few things I actually think would improve the Russian military situation, and if that had happened earlier in the war I am sure we would have seen a much more bloody and gruesome war (and much more success for Russia)
 
It's fascinating that the hawks like Kadyrov or Igor Girkin are so on point in their analysis and yet the actual leadership doesn't seem to have a clue.

In other news: There has been a huge explosion at Belbek air field on Crimea. Looks like a plane didn't stop on the runway but crashed and exploded, so likely not a Ukrainian action (though maybe the plane was damaged and for that reason crashed) and I don't know if there has been any more damage than just this one plane. Still a loss is a loss.

It's easy to be a general after battle, however Kadyrov says nothing about difficulties in other areas? If Lyman was suppliend and reinforced better, would that mean other parts of battle line faltering? Probably. I don't think russia has the resources and logistics to handle such a large front and multiple counter-offensives. As well as trying their own offensive in Bakhmut.

My guess it a lot of orders are coming directly from Putin.
 


Would be logical if Putin wants to deflect blame for the entire calamatous campaign from him towards his subordinates. It wouldn't matter much in military terms since nothing short of a tactical nuke will stop the Ukrainians at this point.
 
Would be logical if Putin wants to deflect blame for the entire calamatous campaign from him towards his subordinates. It wouldn't matter much in military terms since nothing short of a tactical nuke will stop the Ukrainians at this point.
Would be risky to take those as replacement. I don't think they can be easily controlled by Putin if they get actual power.
 
About the impossibility of joining NATO at war...
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:lol: perfect
 
Looks like the public blame game has begun in Kremlin, it will collapse soon (Regular army vs FSB vs Kadyrov/Prigozhin and co.). I think the war might end much sooner than some are expecting and the trigger will be from within.
 
Another Ukrainian offensive seems to be in full swing. Morning coffee could be very pleasant tommorow.
 
I hear that referendum just began in the town of Kreminna on joining back the Ukraine after the short but miserable life under Putin. Imagine what local traitors and collaborators must be feeling right now while they see Russian forces advancing backwards.
 
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I hear that referendum just began in the town of Kreminna on joining back the Ukraine after the short but miserable life under Putin. Imagine what local traitors and collaborators must be feeling right now while they see Russian forces advancing backwards.

I actually hadn’t thought about this as a tactic!
 

Listened to so many of these and very often the families sound…uninterested? I don’t know if it’s me not knowing the language, the translations or a combination of both. But I always feel they aren’t that bothered with the situation of their loved ones.

Maybe thinking about what color Lada they’ll be getting.
 
As I wrote earlier now (after losing Lyman) the only reasonable thing to do for Russian forces would be to drop back to the fortifications from pre-invasion defensive line around the city of Luhansk otherwise they run the real risk to collapse in the northeast completely and lose this war almost on the spot with an open flank as they gonna get overrun.
 
I hear that referendum just began in the town of Kreminna on joining back the Ukraine after the short but miserable life under Putin. Imagine what local traitors and collaborators must be feeling right now while they see Russian forces advancing backwards.

They will have to undergo a special course for re-nazification.
 


Deeply ashamed of this.

Whatever our qualms were with the US propping up Pakistan, or Ukraine voting against Indian interests in Kashmir, or the strong trade relations we had/have with Russia - commitment to democratic values and liberty of life should come first and it should not even be a debate.

What is undeniable is that an unhinged autocratic dictator is waging war on a neighboring nation and illegally annexing their lands. People are dying to this war - soldiers, civilians, children. Families torn apart and lamenting losses. Homes lost, lives changed forever. Millions others suffering indirectly through the energy crises and political turmoil. All of this can be stopped if Putin is stopped.

And we abstained from a vote that merely required us to commit to this position. This silence supports the oppressor.

What a fecking disgrace.
 
Deeply ashamed of this.

Whatever our qualms were with the US propping up Pakistan, or Ukraine voting against Indian interests in Kashmir, or the strong trade relations we had/have with Russia - commitment to democratic values and liberty of life should come first and it should not even be a debate.

What is undeniable is that an unhinged autocratic dictator is waging war on a neighboring nation and illegally annexing their lands. People are dying to this war - soldiers, civilians, children. Families torn apart and lamenting losses. Homes lost, lives changed forever. Millions others suffering indirectly through the energy crises and political turmoil. All of this can be stopped if Putin is stopped.

And we abstained from a vote that merely required us to commit to this position. This silence supports the oppressor.

What a fecking disgrace.

Yep. Will look very bad after this is over when the Ukrainians regain lost territory and India will be remembered as having abstained from criticizing Putin.
 
Yep. Will look very bad after this is over when the Ukrainians regain lost territory and India will be remembered as having abstained from criticizing Putin.

Nope. Nobody will remember or care and the world will spin on. I'm Indian and against our stance on this but I doubt it will make any difference.
 
Here's another potential end game:

Ukraine effectively win the war. But since putin can't back down, he continues shelling and border skirmishing indefinitely out of pettiness.
Ukraine then joins nato in this climate. This gives putin his out, saying he had to end the conflict to save the planet from nuclear war.
 
Here's another potential end game:

Ukraine effectively win the war. But since putin can't back down, he continues shelling and border skirmishing indefinitely out of pettiness.
Ukraine then joins nato in this climate. This gives putin his out, saying he had to end the conflict to save the planet from nuclear war.
If Russia is pushed back to their border i definitely think Putin will keep going. If only to kill all the able bodied men in the provinces so they can't rebel after the army is destroyed.
 
Nope. Nobody will remember or care and the world will spin on. I'm Indian and against our stance on this but I doubt it will make any difference.
Am I right in assuming that India abstaining/supporting Russia has to do with Soviet Union subs blocking the US fleet during the India-Pakistan conflict many decades ago?