Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Dans said:
How are so many drones getting to Kyiv undetected?
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They are relatively small (compared to airplanes) and they fly slow, low and in swarms.

At a complete guess, Ukraine is facing 3 types of problems wrt to air-defence: Firstly, simply not enough of it. Secondly, many separate systems which are not (and cannot be) integrated in ways of sharing data (S-300, Pantsir, Gepards, IRIS-T... did they get NASAMS?). Thirdly, a difficulty in finding cost effective ways of engaging these swarms eefectively.

For example Shahed drones cost, according to military researchers, an estimated $20k a pop. So a mini-swarm of five costs $100k. Meanwhile an AMRAAM costs a cool $1m and an IRIS-T about $500k. Do you fire them at Shaheds? Or do you save them for the Sukhois, MiGs and Cruise missiles?

And to be fair the vast majority of them are shot down, according to UA anyway....
 
MadMike said:
They are relatively small (compared to airplanes) and they fly slow, low and in swarms.

At a complete guess, Ukraine is facing 3 types of problems wrt to air-defence: Firstly, simply not enough of it. Secondly, many separate systems which are not (and cannot be) integrated in ways of sharing data (S-300, Pantsir, Gepards, IRIS-T... did they get NASAMS?). Thirdly, a difficulty in finding cost effective ways of engaging these swarms eefectively.

For example Shahed drones cost, according to military researchers, an estimated $20k a pop. So a mini-swarm of five costs $100k. Meanwhile an AMRAAM costs a cool $1m and an IRIS-T about $500k. Do you fire them at Shaheds? Or do you save them for the Sukhois, MiGs and Cruise missiles?

And to be fair the vast majority of them are shot down, according to UA anyway....
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Ukraine doesn't have Pantsir (unless they captured some)
 
Only 5/28 getting through is encouraging. I wonder where these drones are starting out from? Surely it's Belarus?
 
Buster15 said:
Is that really the point though.
Putin is continually threatening the use of his nuclear weapons against Ukraine. And NATO has said that it takes the threat seriously.
So why would one of the 3 nuclear powers that form the bulk of the NATO alliance supporting Ukraine against Russia reveal his intentions.
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Probably to put his citizens at ease that they won't face Nuclear annihilation for whatever happens in Ukraine. The french population have no obligation whatever to pulled into such a scenario.
 
Gehrman said:
Probably to put his citizens at ease that they won't face Nuclear annihilation for whatever happens in Ukraine. The french population have no obligation whatever to pulled into such a scenario.
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Why. Was there a clamour from the French citizens to be reassured.
 
Russia are doing a good job demilitarising themselves in the last few days.


 
Not sure why Russia bothers with these drone attacks on civilian infrastructure or buildings. It won't deter anyone. It's not scaring off either Ukraine or the West, if creating terror was the goal.
 
How long until the Russians are using these?
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The United States intends to further crack down on Iran for helping Russia in the war on Ukraine, a U.S. official said Monday following reports that Tehran plans to send Moscow missiles to use on the battlefield.

The penalties — likely to include economic sanctions and possibly some export controls — would also target third parties that help Tehran and Moscow.
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https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/17/iran-russia-missile-sales-00062075
 


Any takers? Now that the dynamic has changed with Iran supplying Russia with those drones, perhaps NATO should change the dynamics in arming Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to upgrade their own objectives as well.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:


Any takers? Now that the dynamic has changed with Iran supplying Russia with those drones, perhaps NATO should change the dynamics in arming Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to upgrade their own objectives as well.
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I don't think the US would feel restrained in helping the Ukrainians irrespective of what the Iranians are doing.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:


Any takers? Now that the dynamic has changed with Iran supplying Russia with those drones, perhaps NATO should change the dynamics in arming Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to upgrade their own objectives as well.
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Surely Iran is selling them weapons, not donating them? It might be a subtle difference, but in realpolitik it probably matters.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think the US would feel restrained in helping the Ukrainians irrespective of what the Iranians are doing.
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Biden is the one who’s restraining the military support based on the recent Washington Post article. Apparently he’s being advised to remain subdued in their military support by national sec. adviser Jake Sallivan.
 
Ukrainian technicians working to ensure the safe operation of the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have been told by occupation authorities that they have until Thursday to choose sides in the escalating struggle for control of the reactor complex.

Senior officials of Russia’s Rosatom said Ukrainian staff who sign up as employees of Moscow’s atomic-energy company would keep their jobs and could be offered Russian passports, according to plant workers, Ukrainian officials and diplomats posted to the United Nations’ nuclear agency.
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Raoul said:
I don't think the US would feel restrained in helping the Ukrainians irrespective of what the Iranians are doing.
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I think what Amb. McFaul is referring to is when will Ukraine be supplied with at least a load of MGM-140 ATACMS.

Rajma said:
Biden is the one who’s restraining the military support based on the recent Washington Post article. Apparently he’s being advised to remain subdued in their military support by national sec. adviser Jake Sallivan.
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I just cannot stand that snotty little shit whenever he shows his face on TV, but this would be a major reason to hate the guy even more.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
I think what Amb. McFaul is referring to is when will Ukraine be supplied with at least a load of MGM-140 ATACMS.



I just cannot stand that snotty little shit whenever he shows his face on TV, but this would be a major reason to hate the guy even more.
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I think the US policy of supplying the Ukrainians with enough to deal with Russian advances but not enough to where they can strike too far into Russia and in the process cause Putin to escalate with more powerful weapons, is the correct one. If they need more sophisticated weapons to win, I can't see them not getting them. The only thing that has to be rigidly adhered to is not incentivizing the Ukrainians to go after Russian targets further into Russia, as that will 100% be met with massive response from Putin, who will not want to look like he isn't responding with overwhelming force after getting slapped in the face by Ukraine's military (such as the Kerch Bridge scenario and subsequent Russian response).
 
Raoul said:
I think the US policy of supplying the Ukrainians with enough to deal with Russian advances but not enough to where they can strike too far into Russia and in the process cause Putin to escalate with more powerful weapons, is the correct one. If they need more sophisticated weapons to win, I can't see them not getting them. The only thing that has to be rigidly adhered to is not incentivizing the Ukrainians to go after Russian targets further into Russia, as that will 100% be met with massive response from Putin, who will not want to look like he isn't responding with overwhelming force after getting slapped in the face by Ukraine's military (such as the Kerch Bridge scenario and subsequent Russian response).
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Also, we have to take into account that iranian drones are pretty much big model aircrafts with bomb attached, it's just junk that they only manage to make effective by sending 40 of them at the same time. You can't really compare that to what would be long range weapon given by the US like ATCAMs.
 
mariachi-19 said:
He wouldn’t have a clue.
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First, the Thai footballing kids stuck in a cave and now this?

What I don't understand is for someone with his responsibilities in quite a few successful companies, how does he find the time to tweet or even get involved in global affairs other than his existing businesses? You never see or hear from Bezos or Buffett tweeting or blabbing away other than work-related stuff. I have worked for CEOs of major global companies -- they have long working hours.

As rich as he is, why does he feel the need for engagement/affirmation with the plebs on social media? Doesn't his businesses need more of his attention rather than him seeking it from the public?
 
Raoul said:
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Putin hasn't said that about Crimea, are we to understand Elon Musk is the person that is presenting Russian nuclear military tactics to the world? Is he an ambassador for Russia?

The Russian propaganda shows are all talking about how it would be dumb to use nuclear weapons.

Let's say we accept that Putin told Musk Russia's nuclear strategy in that phone call he says didn't happen. Why draw this "red line" in Crimea? Why not draw it in Kherson? If nuclear blackmail is effective, why hasn't he used it to lock in his territorial gains?

Nuclear weapons are a great thing to bluff with, I don't think it's a great tool. This isn't the first time everyone's been worried that Russia is bringing out the nukes. It's a Boy Who Cried Nukes situation at this point, and Putin only has himself to blame.

He would need to detonate a nuke in the Black Sea or some such before anyone would believe him. And it seems unlikely the reaction to that wouldn't be helpful to his efforts.
 
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Beans said:
Putin hasn't said that about Crimea, are we to understand Elon Musk is the person that is presenting Russian nuclear military tactics to the world? Is he an ambassador for Russia?

The Russian propaganda shows are all talking about how it would be dumb to use nuclear weapons.

Let's say we accept that Putin told Musk Russia's nuclear strategy in that phone call he says didn't happen. Why draw this "red line" in Crimea? Why not draw it in Kherson? If nuclear blackmail is effective, why hasn't he used it to lock in his territorial gains?

It's nuclear weapons are a great thing to bluff with, I don't think it's a great tool. This isn't the first time everyone's been worried that Russia is bringing out the nukes. It's a Boy Who Cried Nukes situation at this point, and Putin only has himself to blame.

He would need to detonate a nuke in the Black Sea or some such before anyone would believe him. And it seems unlikely the reaction to that wouldn't be helpful to his efforts.
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I think Musk and one of his pals on Twitter - David Sacks, are tag teaming to push the “we need a negotiated settlement or else there will be nuclear war” narrative. Interestingly, Elon has been pushing this since his call with Putin.
 
What is the endgame for Putin? Do Russia's neighbors think Putin's ambition/avarice ends there? Does Putin himself think normal relations will eventually resume, just like after Crimea when Trump just looked the other way (or barked like a good little lap doggy)?

I think we are at the point in the story where the third act begins. Western leaders need to say out loud what they all secretly realize, and that is that Putin cannot be allowed to stay in power. At the very minimum he is guilty of war crimes. I think NATO and the western powers keep hoping Putin will grow tired of the invasion and go back to whatever it is he does in his free time (ride horses while shirtless?). The fact that we keep hearing tactical nuclear weapons discussed should tell everyone that there will be no return to "normal" while Putin is in power.

So what do we do? Seal Team 6?
 
Wing Attack Plan R said:
What is the endgame for Putin? Do Russia's neighbors think Putin's ambition/avarice ends there? Does Putin himself think normal relations will eventually resume, just like after Crimea when Trump just looked the other way (or barked like a good little lap doggy)?

I think we are at the point in the story where the third act begins. Western leaders need to say out loud what they all secretly realize, and that is that Putin cannot be allowed to stay in power. At the very minimum he is guilty of war crimes. I think NATO and the western powers keep hoping Putin will grow tired of the invasion and go back to whatever it is he does in his free time (ride horses while shirtless?). The fact that we keep hearing tactical nuclear weapons discussed should tell everyone that there will be no return to "normal" while Putin is in power.

So what do we do? Seal Team 6?
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The end game for the west has to be removing Putin from within by weakening Russia through a combination of sanctions and internal unrest. I don’t think any western leader will publicly admit this, but they are all thinking it.

I think Putin’s strategy will be to draw this out and rely on a favorable change of government in the US.
 
Raoul said:
The end game for the west has to be removing Putin from within by weakening Russia through a combination of sanctions and internal unrest. I don’t think any western leader will publicly admit this, but they are all thinking it.

I think Putin’s strategy will be to draw this out and rely on a favorable change of government in the US.
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I think even if the Dems lose the House in November there'll still be a fair bit of support for Ukraine at this point. Not sure Putin can afford to drag this war out for another 2 years waiting for Trump or some other stooge. In fairness though, I suppose he could just be banking on Biden's health failing him? Don't think Harris could last very long as President. Perhaps a long shot is better than no shot at this point.
 
TwoSheds said:
I think even if the Dems lose the House in November there'll still be a fair bit of support for Ukraine at this point. Not sure Putin can afford to drag this war out for another 2 years waiting for Trump or some other stooge. In fairness though, I suppose he could just be banking on Biden's health failing him? Don't think Harris could last very long as President. Perhaps a long shot is better than no shot at this point.
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Definitely, however another Trump presidency could be a problem. I don’t think Putin can drag this out that long.
 
MadMike said:
They are relatively small (compared to airplanes) and they fly slow, low and in swarms.

At a complete guess, Ukraine is facing 3 types of problems wrt to air-defence: Firstly, simply not enough of it. Secondly, many separate systems which are not (and cannot be) integrated in ways of sharing data (S-300, Pantsir, Gepards, IRIS-T... did they get NASAMS?). Thirdly, a difficulty in finding cost effective ways of engaging these swarms effectively. Explosions are heard this morning again in Kiev and Dnipro..

For example Shahed drones cost, according to military researchers, an estimated $20k a pop. So a mini-swarm of five costs $100k. Meanwhile an AMRAAM costs a cool $1m and an IRIS-T about $500k. Do you fire them at Shaheds? Or do you save them for the Sukhois, MiGs and Cruise missiles?

And to be fair the vast majority of them are shot down, according to UA anyway....
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While vast majority is being shot down it’s not sustainable in the current format because air-defense rockets have to be wasted in large quantities on these cheap Iranian drones, severely depleting their existing arsenal. Hopefully US and partners doing everything at the moment to develop a cost efficient way to totally neutralize these because as I predicted when this news only started to find its legs it might be a game changer, unfortunately. Some suggestions that zenith artillery systems are needed for Ukraine to shot these downs optimally.
 
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Raoul said:
I think Musk and one of his pals on Twitter - David Sacks, are tag teaming to push the “we need a negotiated settlement or else there will be nuclear war” narrative. Interestingly, Elon has been pushing this since his call with Putin.
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Tesla is depend on aluminium from one of the oligarchs - made a deal with the devil and now he’s fecked.
 
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