Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

TwoSheds said:
It's not possible surely. They'd have to be losing 3-4000 people a week.
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He has been utilizing a WW1 style approach of throwing a high volume of bodies into the conflict, so it wouldn’t at all surprise me if the losses were closer to the number published than not.
 
Raoul said:
He has been utilizing a WW1 style approach of throwing a high volume of bodies into the conflict, so it wouldn’t at all surprise me if the losses were closer to the number published than not.
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But as in, 3-4000 people a week since the conflict began. Every week. I mean if they have loads of deserters or something and then they're including them as well I guess it's not impossible but it doesn't seem likely. Where are they all deserting to and why isn't it being reported?
 
TwoSheds said:
It's not possible surely. They'd have to be losing 3-4000 people a week.
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They are losing 700-900 people a day for quite a while now according to Ukraine's ministry of defence daily updates. Losing not necessarily in terms of deaths but them being removed from the combat action, wounded, as I understand.
 
TwoSheds said:
But as in, 3-4000 people a week since the conflict began. Every week. I mean if they have loads of deserters or something and then they're including them as well I guess it's not impossible but it doesn't seem likely. Where are they all deserting to and why isn't it being reported?
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I would imagine a majority of that number are injuries. 100k deaths wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility though imo.
 
goalscholes said:
Concerning



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Raoul said:
That's the problem with drifting towards fascism. Once you begin the process, you're incentivized to consolidate power for fear of being overthrown, which is precisely where Putin is headed and his pal Orban won't be too far behind. As Putin becomes weaker, his aspiring acolytes will become vulnerable after realizing he's no longer able to protect them.
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This does make it easier when the rest of NATO decides what to share with Hungary and how to work with them. At least since Orban has been in power and likely longer, the rest of NATO has to assume that anything shared with Hungary will probably end up with the Russians. Now they know that's the case and plan accordingly. Without the existing relationships and knowledge of the dismissed officers, NATO can reasonably reduce cooperation and information sharing.
 
Sir Matt said:
This does make it easier when the rest of NATO decides what to share with Hungary and how to work with them. At least since Orban has been in power and likely longer, the rest of NATO has to assume that anything shared with Hungary will probably end up with the Russians. Now they know that's the case and plan accordingly. Without the existing relationships and knowledge of the dismissed officers, NATO can reasonably reduce cooperation and information sharing.
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Isn't throwing someone out of NATO easier than throwing them out of the EU? Does Nato also require unanimity in it's political decisions?
Orban is not going to stop his drop into fascism until the price to pay is too steep.
 
I’m not to sure what to think about the scenario of German tanks named after a big car being used in the Ukraine anno 2020’s. There’s something oddly familiar about it.
 
One more heated issue is brewing between Germany and Lithuania regarding stationing of Germany’s troops in Lithuania. There was a mutual agreement reached for German brigade (3,500 size) to be permanently located in Lithuania back in April. However, Germany has gone back on this and then came up with their own “interpretation” of this agreement, where the troops would be based at home and deployed quickly if necessary. Seems like Germany is doing its best to undermine the trust of its partners and regional security, this can have long-lasting implications, and this Leopard fiasco is only strengthening the view in the region that Germany would through the partners under the bus if shit would hit the fan.
 
Rams said:
I’m not to sure what to think about the scenario of German tanks named after a big car being used in the Ukraine anno 2020’s. There’s something oddly familiar about it.
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Which is exactly what explains the reluctance of many Germans in this question.

the hea said:
At what point do we start asking who these German ministers are really working for?
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And it answers this question - they are working for the slight majority of Germans.

No matter what Germany does, we are always called Hitler by someone, we can only choose by whom. Unfortunately many people make the wrong choice on this, but that's how it works.
 
stefan92 said:
Which is exactly what explains the reluctance of many Germans in this question.


And it answers this question - they are working for the slight majority of Germans.

No matter what Germany does, we are always called Hitler by someone, we can only choose by whom. Unfortunately many people make the wrong choice on this, but that's how it works.
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If you ask me she is not only working against any potential tank donations to Ukraine but she is also sabotaging German security with actions like that. How on earth are they going to be able to plan their defences if they can't even do an inventory of existing equipment.
 
Raoul said:
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So what exactly does Corbyn propose? Does he propose for Russia to leave Ukraine? Or does he propose for Ukraine to concede the "annexed" territories? If he had the power, what would his diplomatic solution look like?
 
the hea said:
If you ask me she is not only working against any potential tank donations to Ukraine but she is also sabotaging German security with actions like that. How on earth are they going to be able to plan their defences if they can't even do an inventory of existing equipment.
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True. There is a reason why she was criticised from day one as the worst member of Scholz' cabinet until the pressure on her grew so big that she resigned a few days ago. I am quite sure that Pistorius will get all that in a much better shape (in his own words "wanting to be ahead of the curve to be prepared for any decision that might be made"), although I am not sure which kind of decisions he himself will advocate for. But I see it this way: So far the German military policies weren't good, and their execution was abysmal. He might not improve the general policies by much, but I trust him to execute them much better.
 
What was the last war that ended with “some kind of peace conference”?
 
Germany has a very complicated relationship both with war and with Russia. It is not easy to understand from the outside, even the nuances at regional level.
 
Bepi said:
Germany has a very complicated relationship both with war and with Russia. It is not easy to understand from the outside, even the nuances at regional level.
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And with taking international leadership. The Ukraine war is kind of the perfect storm to show all these issues to the world
 
VorZakone said:
So what exactly does Corbyn propose? Does he propose for Russia to leave Ukraine? Or does he propose for Ukraine to concede the "annexed" territories? If he had the power, what would his diplomatic solution look like?
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He is of course an idiot, as Oz correctly points out.
 
RoyH1 said:
Isn't throwing someone out of NATO easier than throwing them out of the EU? Does Nato also require unanimity in it's political decisions?
Orban is not going to stop his drop into fascism until the price to pay is too steep.
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There's no established mechanism for expelling them from NATO. NATO does require unanimity for admitting other nations though.
 
Raoul said:
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Corbyn is basically as thick as pig sh*t. He formed his world view in the 60s and 70 s and that was the end of it. USSR/Russia = anti-imperialism. If you ever wonder how a destructive, cynical clown like Boris Johnson won a big majority and consequently a mandate to trash the UK through a hard Brexit, the answer is that the only alternative in a two party system was Jeremy.”RT Today” Corbyn.
 
VorZakone said:
40,000 convicts? Fecking hell.


https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/20/politics/us-russia-wagner-group/index.html?utm_content=2023-01-20T18:55:22&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk
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Can you imagine how much of a PR disaster it would be if Blackwater picked their men from prisons, had a similar proportion of their labor force being ex-convicts, did only half of the alleged crimes that Wagner did, and also lost as many men in battle?

nimic said:
Suggests sendsing M1 Abrams

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Gotta agree with him for once here. At some point, it is obvious that a number of those will have to see action. Heck, I would press Japan to send some of their Type 90s (reminder: deemed unsuitable for most types of combat terrain in Japan and yet perfect for large open spaces like in Ukraine).

I know that the U.K. Ministry of Defence denied it a few days ago, but do you think there's enough smoke about the rumor on the MOD potentially sending some AH-64E Apache helicopters?
 
So anyway, with gas prices falling and the EU quickly and successfully replacing Russian gas with other sources, it looks like another huge L for Putin, this time in his energy war.
 
Bepi said:
Germany has a very complicated relationship both with war and with Russia. It is not easy to understand from the outside, even the nuances at regional level.
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What’s the deal with Russia? Pound-for-pound it’s the Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus that have suffered the most as far as countries are concerned from Nazi regime/occupation during ww2. Maybe @stefan92 can elaborate, genuinely interested here.
 
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Bepi said:
Germany has a very complicated relationship both with war and with Russia. It is not easy to understand from the outside, even the nuances at regional level.
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Not to contradict anyone on that point, but so is Japan. Even then, Japan has never chosen to cozy up too openly with China or Russia just for the sake of making up for the past. They are always willing to play hard ball when their own interests are at stakes, including the contentious point of the Kuril Islands and the fact that no official peace treaty has ever been signed between Japan and the USSR/Russia about those since.

I don't know if it's by accident or by design, but I don't have this impression that Germany is willing to play the same kind of hard ball game.
 
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"Tanzanian killed in Ukraine: We told him not to go."
Nemes Tarimo's family in Tanzania warned him against agreeing to fight with Russian forces in Ukraine, but the 33-year-old had a big incentive to sign up.
It is now three weeks since his relatives learnt of the news that confirmed their worst fears. He had died in combat.
Everyone at the family home in the city of Dar es Salaam looks exhausted as they wait for news about when his body might come back.
The waiting is taking its toll.
There are about 15 people in the compound, and relatives are coming in and out all day wanting to hear if there are any updates.
One says they last heard from him in October when he had said he had agreed to sign up with the Russian mercenary group Wagner.

"Nemes informed me and some other family members about joining Wagner, and we advised him not to," the family member, who did not want to give their name, tells the BBC.
But for the young man, who relatives describe as polite, God-fearing and supportive, there was an offer that was hard to resist.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64338677
 
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