Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rajma said:
What’s the deal with Russia? Pound-for-pound it’s the Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus that have suffered the most as far as countries are concerned from Nazi regime/occupation during ww2. Maybe @stefan92 can elaborate, genuinely interested here.
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I will try, but no guarantee for this to be all correct:

At first you are right when you talk about who suffered the most in WW2 due to German occupation, but even then it's mostly focused on the organised genocide on the jews, not on Poles, Belarussians etc as such. Russians also not. So because of Auschwitz, the Warsaw Ghetto etc Germany has a very special relationship to Israel, not really to Poland. Keep in mind, a lot of what today is Poland historically was the actual East Germany, and what today is called East Germany was Middle Germany - which still is present in things like the "Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk" being an East German regional TV station. So especially Poland is a territory were a lot of Germans actually have their ancestry and were forced to come as refugees into current Germany.

Russia was were it all went wrong in WW2. The trauma of losing a world war started with battles like Kursk or Stalingrad - all in Russia. Those countries you mentioned weren't such a big obstacle, especially not Poland, and therefore are not present as places were a terrible war happened - simply because it was over so fast. Russia is, and that's what the Germans don't want to repeat.

And it's not only about WW2 - at least since the 70s it was believed by many Germans that a strong German-Russian relationship would be key to tearing down the wall through Germany some day. Yes, I am aware that it was the Soviet Union at the time - but I do think we all agree the SU was dominated by Russians and used to oppress other peoples. So while not entirely correct to relate the SU just to the Russians I think it is ok when we are considering the power structure there. And it worked. Economic deals like the first gas pipelines worked for mutual benefit and in the end it paved the road to the peaceful reunion of Germany in 1990. The SU could have tried to bring the GDR back into the fold by force (like it sadly did try with your country) but it didn't. It's difficult to come to terms that a state is fighting cruel wars that here behaved reasonable and peaceful when it mattered most.

Looking further back into history (like to the time of Catherine the Great) you see a lot of German families who were invited to move to Russia - and lots of those moved back centuries later after the SU collapsed. A lot of those still are more or less fond of Russia and would like to see their two countries having close ties.

And finally a lot of Germans are quite critical of the US and see Russia as the natural counter weight. There is more or less of a solid base for them (considering the lies the US used to attack Iraq, their involvement in countless wars all over the world etc), but sadly some of those simply are stuck in a world view that sees Russia as the lesser evil (if evil at all) and necessary to balance the power in the world.

And I am sure there are a lot more facets to the topic of German-Russian relationship and mutual feelings that I didn't think about now.
 
I can only add in Italy there is still some shame (and shaming) in the families of former relevant fascist people, after one full century… just imagine how proportionally bigger (and even more lacerating) it is in Germany.
 
Putin was stationed in Germany when he was in KGB, it wouldn't be surprising if he still has an extensive network of agents in Germany today. We should not forget that Germany also contains the former East Germans. These people, for 45 years, were taught in their schools that Russians are the good people and Americans are the devil. Thousands of them worked for Stasi, for East Germany's police, and for various communist agencies. They had contacts in Russia. When Putin gave all the Russian companies to his KGB guys, and Germany wanted to do business with Putin and the Russian mafia he had created, it was natural for the German companies to hire former Stasi people, to contact their Russian buddies and make business deals with the former KGB agents in Russia, who control today all the large companies there. All these people (both Russian and Germans) are very rich today, and they don't want Ukraine to win because they make a lot of money with Putin. Most of them do not want Putin to fall, because the next President of Russia might make their names public.
 
frostbite said:
Putin was stationed in Germany when he was in KGB, it wouldn't be surprising if he still has an extensive network of agents in Germany today. We should not forget that Germany also contains the former East Germans. These people, for 45 years, were taught in their schools that Russians are the good people and Americans are the devil. Thousands of them worked for Stasi, for East Germany's police, and for various communist agencies. They had contacts in Russia. When Putin gave all the Russian companies to his KGB guys, and Germany wanted to do business with Putin and the Russian mafia he had created, it was natural for the German companies to hire former Stasi people, to contact their Russian buddies and make business deals with the former KGB agents in Russia, who control today all the large companies there. All these people (both Russian and Germans) are very rich today, and they don't want Ukraine to win because they make a lot of money with Putin. Most of them do not want Putin to fall, because the next President of Russia might make their names public.
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Who is "they" ?
 
Bepi said:
I can only add in Italy there is still some shame (and shaming) in the families of former relevant fascist people, after one full century… just imagine how proportionally bigger (and even more lacerating) it is in Germany.
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It is probably much worse in Germany because it contains both a lot of families with former Nazi, and a lot of families with former Stasi!
 
frostbite said:
The "businessmen" with Russian contacts. The Russian oligarchs were making deals with Germans, right?
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I don't know. I thought the oligarchs were scattered all over the place and not necessarily in Germany.
 
Here is a Greek story about Stasi and business.

As you may know, the Nottingham Forest owner is Greek. He also owns the Greek team Olympiakos. (I have no idea how the FA allowed this person to own an English team, but anyway, that's a different story.)

The former owner of this team Olympiakos, was Kokkalis. Kokkalis is a billionaire who grew up in East Germany and made most of his money from contracts for German companies. Here is what Wikipedia says:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokratis_Kokkalis

<<German authorities' investigations in the Stasi archives found a 350-page report referring to agent "Rocco" ("953/63") and later "Kaskade" and "Krokus".[4] It was alleged that "Rocco" was the code name for Sokratis Kokkalis, allegedly recruited on 25 January 1963. Kokkalis was alleged to have subsequently bribed Greek officials for the national telecommunications company of Greece to purchase East German telecommunications equipment.>>


This is a public forum, so I cannot write anything else about these two people. I can only say that, in my humble opinion, they are the Greek equivalent of MBS.
 
Raoul said:
I don't know. I thought the oligarchs were scattered all over the place and not necessarily in Germany.
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Of course they are. There are many in Greece and Cyprus too. But the density of former Stasi agents is not the same everywhere, most East Germans stayed in Germany, right?
 
frostbite said:
Of course they are. There are many in Greece and Cyprus too. But the density of former Stasi agents is not the same everywhere, most East Germans stayed in Germany, right?
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I don't know if they did or not. I would imagine most that did assimilated into new lives in a united Germany.
 
Raoul said:
I don't know if they did or not. I would imagine most that did assimilated into new lives in a united Germany.
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Yes, new lives for the Stasi agents. New lives for the Russian KGB, too. But there is a difference. For example, we all know about the new life of Abramovitch, we all knew who he was, but there was no problem before 2022. Many other oligarchs have houses and families in England. All of them probably want Putin to win, because Putin makes them money, and all of them try to help Russia with any influence they may have. However, a politician in England does not worry too much about how many votes they will lose helping Ukraine, because the Russian-loving people are a small minority in England. It is not the same for the German politicians.
 
stefan92 said:
I will try, but no guarantee for this to be all correct:

At first you are right when you talk about who suffered the most in WW2 due to German occupation, but even then it's mostly focused on the organised genocide on the jews, not on Poles, Belarussians etc as such. Russians also not. So because of Auschwitz, the Warsaw Ghetto etc Germany has a very special relationship to Israel, not really to Poland. Keep in mind, a lot of what today is Poland historically was the actual East Germany, and what today is called East Germany was Middle Germany - which still is present in things like the "Mitteldeutscher Rundfunk" being an East German regional TV station. So especially Poland is a territory were a lot of Germans actually have their ancestry and were forced to come as refugees into current Germany.

Russia was were it all went wrong in WW2. The trauma of losing a world war started with battles like Kursk or Stalingrad - all in Russia. Those countries you mentioned weren't such a big obstacle, especially not Poland, and therefore are not present as places were a terrible war happened - simply because it was over so fast. Russia is, and that's what the Germans don't want to repeat.

And it's not only about WW2 - at least since the 70s it was believed by many Germans that a strong German-Russian relationship would be key to tearing down the wall through Germany some day. Yes, I am aware that it was the Soviet Union at the time - but I do think we all agree the SU was dominated by Russians and used to oppress other peoples. So while not entirely correct to relate the SU just to the Russians I think it is ok when we are considering the power structure there. And it worked. Economic deals like the first gas pipelines worked for mutual benefit and in the end it paved the road to the peaceful reunion of Germany in 1990. The SU could have tried to bring the GDR back into the fold by force (like it sadly did try with your country) but it didn't. It's difficult to come to terms that a state is fighting cruel wars that here behaved reasonable and peaceful when it mattered most.

Looking further back into history (like to the time of Catherine the Great) you see a lot of German families who were invited to move to Russia - and lots of those moved back centuries later after the SU collapsed. A lot of those still are more or less fond of Russia and would like to see their two countries having close ties.

And finally a lot of Germans are quite critical of the US and see Russia as the natural counter weight. There is more or less of a solid base for them (considering the lies the US used to attack Iraq, their involvement in countless wars all over the world etc), but sadly some of those simply are stuck in a world view that sees Russia as the lesser evil (if evil at all) and necessary to balance the power in the world.

And I am sure there are a lot more facets to the topic of German-Russian relationship and mutual feelings that I didn't think about now.
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Sorry, but this post is slightly misinformed imo.

The Germans didn’t just commit genocide to the Jews, they also spent several years terrorizing entire populations such as towards Leningrad. The Nazis committed the most horrific crimes towards the general Russian population in Russia occupied or not. The Nazis terrorized entire populations where ever they went including in Germany itself.
The Germans are well aware of their violent history and therefore they tend to turn to pacifism. They are reluctant to get involved in any conflict in any shape or form. They have deep industrial interests & reliance on Russia. Nevertheless, they are very much against Russian aggression in Ukraine.
 
To give some perspective, there were over 4M civilian deaths in what is now Russia directly caused by WWII. That’s excluding another 3M caused by famine. The deaths of Jews caused by the genocide is estimated at 6M. Just horrific figures.
 
Rams said:
Sorry, but this post is slightly misinformed imo.

The Germans didn’t just commit genocide to the Jews, they also spent several years terrorizing entire populations such as towards Leningrad. The Nazis committed the most horrific crimes towards the general Russian population in Russia occupied or not. The Nazis terrorized entire populations where ever they went including in Germany itself.
The Germans are well aware of their violent history and therefore they tend to turn to pacifism. They are reluctant to get involved in any conflict in any shape or form. They have deep industrial interests & reliance on Russia. Nevertheless, they are very much against Russian aggression in Ukraine.
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Well I tried to give an explanation for the German feelings as I perceive them at the moment. While your post is factually true, not everything is present in the German public discussion all the time.
 
stefan92 said:
Well I tried to give an explanation for the German feelings as I perceive them at the moment. While your post is factually true, not everything is present in the German public discussion all the time.
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I’m just pointing out that the Russian civil population suffered the most from the Nazis and not less. I’m not referring to your feelings as you perceive them. Hence I wrote ‘slightly misinformed’. I think it’s important to get the facts right though.
 
Rams said:
I’m just pointing out that the Russian civil population suffered the most from the Nazis and not less. I’m not referring to your feelings as you perceive them. Hence I wrote ‘slightly misinformed’. I think it’s important to get the facts right though.
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Yes, and it's a fact that you can get an emotional response by mentioning Auschwitz or Stalingrad, but usually won't get one by mentioning Leningrad. That Russian suffering simply isn't present in the public discussion and therefore doesn't really influence the opinion Germans have towards Russia.
 
Buster15 said:
That is the spirit.
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Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
 
stefan92 said:
Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
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I think these requests are only put forward formally after receiving the green light behind the closed doors. At this point it’s quite clear that in the meeting rooms Germany has been denying such proposals and countries simply out of political tact are not doing it officially to spare the geopolitical embarrassment.
 
Rajma said:
I think these requests are only put forward formally after receiving the green light behind the closed doors. At this point it’s quite clear that in the meeting rooms Germany has been denying such proposals and countries simply out of political tact are not doing it officially to spare the geopolitical embarrassment.
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True, but that means that still everybody keeps being tactful and no one tries to enforce it.
 
VorZakone said:
100k military casualties for Ukraine is insane. I wonder how many professional soldiers they still have left compared to volunteers.
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I’m thinking an invading force having almost double the casualties is mind boggling.
 
VorZakone said:
100k military casualties for Ukraine is insane. I wonder how many professional soldiers they still have left compared to volunteers.
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That number for the Ukr has been floating since the December 2022. I certainly can't see the UKR to keep it up with the Russians.

Ukr do need better weapons sooner, really as the Russians are not running out of their combat capability for now despite some people kept saying that for months.
 
Raoul said:
I would imagine a majority of that number are injuries. 100k deaths wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility though imo.
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The Sun reported that US intelligence estimates total Russian military casualties in Ukraine as 188,000 as of January 20, suggesting a possible 47,000 Russians killed in action in less than a year of fighting.

47k deaths is a far lower number than what some have been reporting, but could well be a closer figure of the reality due to coming from the US intelligence?
 
stefan92 said:
Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
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Yeah, that's definitely not what's happening at all. Multiple countries and multiple news outlets have all said the same thing. It's evidently clear Germany is extremely reluctant and hesitant to offer the same support as other countries. They are also clearly holding up or even preventing other countries responses too. So it's not a convenient lie, it's more a clear fact.
 
VorZakone said:
100k military casualties for Ukraine is insane. I wonder how many professional soldiers they still have left compared to volunteers.
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The fact that they are adding WIA to the total sum makes it extremely unreliable. We could be talking about 30,000 to 60,000 killed, or 50,000 to 90,000. I don't know for instance if a wounded soldier can eventually return to the battlefield or perform other duties in the war.
 
stefan92 said:
Just to point this out: Still not a single country has come forward and said that Germany blocked their export request. There is only a source in the British MoD that claims that one such request was made and neither Germany nor that country whichever it was confirmed that this is true.

No country so far wants to be the first to deliver Leopard tanks, everyone waits for someone else to at least share the responsibility. Blaming Germany for not delivering is fine, blaming Germany for blocking exports is simply a convenient lie.
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Just a question. Does anyone know what is the reason that those countries who have acquired the Leopard Tanks from Germany have to get permission from Germany if they want to loan those tanks to a third party ?
 
Buster15 said:
Just a question. Does anyone know what is the reason that those countries who have acquired the Leopard Tanks from Germany have to get permission from Germany if they want to loan those tanks to a third party ?
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As far as I'm aware it's due to the restriction of not selling to any nation involved in a war. A provision everyone agreed on until a war they cared about showed up.
 
The United said:
The Sun reported that US intelligence estimates total Russian military casualties in Ukraine as 188,000 as of January 20, suggesting a possible 47,000 Russians killed in action in less than a year of fighting.

47k deaths is a far lower number than what some have been reporting, but could well be a closer figure of the reality due to coming from the US intelligence?
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Russia has basically non-existent medevac, most of their 300s end up 200s. It’s definitely more than 100k KIA alone.
 
Reading German-language commentary has been interesting.
Twitter translation to English:
Poland and others have tested whether Germany would even be willing to grant export permits. An official request that would then have been rejected would have meant an open split in the alliance that would be difficult to mend.
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Some quotes from German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung, with Google Translate:
"According to SZ information, security adviser Jake Sullivan called Scholz's foreign policy adviser, Jens Plötner, with whom he actually has a friendly relationship. The US administration describes the protest as violent."
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US Secretary of Defense "Lloyd Austin, who stayed longer than planned in the Chancellery, is said to have gotten into a heated argument with Wolfgang Schmidt. The meeting was said to have been 'tense'."
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"The tone in the US government was particularly sharp. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin tried in vain on Thursday in Berlin and on Friday in Ramstein to obtain a commitment to supply Leopard-2."
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"The information that the federal government publicly imposed conditions for the delivery of the Leopard to the USA before the Ramstein meeting caused particular irritation in Washington."
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Buster15 said:
Just a question. Does anyone know what is the reason that those countries who have acquired the Leopard Tanks from Germany have to get permission from Germany if they want to loan those tanks to a third party ?
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It's a usual clause in weapon export deals that a re-export to a third country has to be granted by the original exporters. No one wants to be killed by his own weapons, so this is basically to ensure that weapons will never get into hostile hands. It applies to basically everything, be it the Leopards that need a German export permission, Patriot and F-16 hat need a US permission etc.
langster said:
Yeah, that's definitely not what's happening at all. Multiple countries and multiple news outlets have all said the same thing. It's evidently clear Germany is extremely reluctant and hesitant to offer the same support as other countries. They are also clearly holding up or even preventing other countries responses too. So it's not a convenient lie, it's more a clear fact.
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No country forced Germany to actively deny such an export license. Everyone so far just accepts that the German government has doubts and doesn’t even ask.

It's obvious that other countries have their doubts as well and by not forcing Germany to really make an official and definite decision they can just hide behind Germany's reluctance.

If a PiS politician critices Germany it is like when @frostbite does it - they just hate Germany and use every opportunity to lash out against Germany. It's becoming tiresome.

But don't get me wrong, I would like my government to be more decisive and supportive of Ukraine, so that we wouldn't have to discuss such diplomatic shenanigans now.
 
stefan92 said:
It's a usual clause in weapon export deals that a re-export to a third country has to be granted by the original exporters. No one wants to be killed by his own weapons, so this is basically to ensure that weapons will never get into hostile hands. It applies to basically everything, be it the Leopards that need a German export permission, Patriot and F-16 hat need a US permission etc.

No country forced Germany to actively deny such an export license. Everyone so far just accepts that the German government has doubts and doesn’t even ask.

It's obvious that other countries have their doubts as well and by not forcing Germany to really make an official and definite decision they can just hide behind Germany's reluctance.

If a PiS politician critices Germany it is like when @frostbite does it - they just hate Germany and use every opportunity to lash out against Germany. It's becoming tiresome.

But don't get me wrong, I would like my government to be more decisive and supportive of Ukraine, so that we wouldn't have to discuss such diplomatic shenanigans now.
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Did Habeck say in concrete words that Germany wouldn't block other countries?
 
stefan92 said:
No country forced Germany to actively deny such an export license. Everyone so far just accepts that the German government has doubts and doesn’t even ask.

It's obvious that other countries have their doubts as well and by not forcing Germany to really make an official and definite decision they can just hide behind Germany's reluctance.

If a PiS politician critices Germany it is like when @frostbite does it - they just hate Germany and use every opportunity to lash out against Germany. It's becoming tiresome.

But don't get me wrong, I would like my government to be more decisive and supportive of Ukraine, so that we wouldn't have to discuss such diplomatic shenanigans now.
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It isn't in anybody's interest right now to embarrass Germany so openly and split NATO by forcing them to publicly refuse the export licence, especially if the end game isn't to just pointlessly embarrass Germany/Scholz but to actually get that export licence. It also isn't in those countries interests to close off a major exporter of military hardware to them in the future by so flagrantly ignoring a contract.

I don't like the phrase 'no smoke without fire' but can't help but feel this is clearly one of those times. Its a bit silly to hide behind the 'nobody has formally asked yet' because its becoming increasingly clear the only reason countries haven't formally asked yet is because Germany have made it clear they will say no.

There were never really transfer stories involving Messi either. It wasn't because he wasn't wanted by others but that his camp and Barcelona I'm sure made it known that they had no interest in moving/ selling.
 
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