Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

The Sun reported that US intelligence estimates total Russian military casualties in Ukraine as 188,000 as of January 20, suggesting a possible 47,000 Russians killed in action in less than a year of fighting.

47k deaths is a far lower number than what some have been reporting, but could well be a closer figure of the reality due to coming from the US intelligence?
US Intelligence isn’t the source of 47k KIA, you’re just dividing a number from The Sun by a random number.
 
Equating Messi and his stay at Barca to Germany and its stance on supporting Ukraine is peak Caf.....

Just when you had thought you had seen it all :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
Did Habeck say in concrete words that Germany wouldn't block other countries?
Habeck said Germany shouldn't block it. Formally his ministry and the chancellor's office both have to sign such a request. Considering how other deliveries went there is little doubt that Habeck would sign and full pressure would be on Scholz.

That's why I think a country that really wants to push the issue should make the step forward and initiate the process. It would ensure that the German chancellor (and let's be clear, he and his party are the problem, no other reasonable party in Germany is) is under pressure both from outside and inside to finally act.

But without such a request the coalition partners have no leverage against the SPD. An export license signed by Habeck would change that, but without that I don't think the topic moves forward.
 
Equating Messi and his stay at Barca to Germany and its stance on supporting Ukraine is peak Caf.....

Just when you had thought you had seen it all :lol: :lol: :lol:

Except that wasn't what was being equated.....
 
Habeck said Germany shouldn't block it. Formally his ministry and the chancellor's office both have to sign such a request. Considering how other deliveries went there is little doubt that Habeck would sign and full pressure would be on Scholz.

That's why I think a country that really wants to push the issue should make the step forward and initiate the process. It would ensure that the German chancellor (and let's be clear, he and his party are the problem, no other reasonable party in Germany is) is under pressure both from outside and inside to finally act.

But without such a request the coalition partners have no leverage against the SPD. An export license signed by Habeck would change that, but without that I don't think the topic moves forward.
Well, Ben Wallace revealed one country has initiated that process. We'll see how that story develops then. Could have been a pressure tactic from Wallace though I wouldn't like it when a British government official would openly lie to pressure Germany. Not the kind of tactics I approve of.
 
Prolonging this war is clearly beneficial for Russia. There are enough helpless people to be mobilized, and economy, while slowly deteriorating, still has enough ability to produce a lot of equipment and support the army.

Hope US and allies have a plan and ready to help Ukraine till the end (which means pushing Russia out from occupied territories).

For now it looks like Russia took the initiative, has nothing to lose and is determined to make another attempt to take full control over Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions at least.
 
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Well, Ben Wallace revealed one country has initiated that process. We'll see how that story develops then. Could have been a pressure tactic from Wallace though I wouldn't like it when a British government official would openly lie to pressure Germany. Not the kind of tactics I approve of.
As I mentioned above noone confirmed that. I believe it has been either a misunderstanding about the nature of a discussion Wallace himself didn't attend or it is an ongoing process that hasn't yet been concluded and is kept confidential until a decision is made. I don't think it is a lie on purpose.
 
US Intelligence isn’t the source of 47k KIA, you’re just dividing a number from The Sun by a random number.
Oh I see. But if one to three ratio holds here, the KIA figure would still be way lower than the 100k KIA figure that showed up a lot online.
 
As far as I'm aware it's due to the restriction of not selling to any nation involved in a war. A provision everyone agreed on until a war they cared about showed up.

Thank you. But it would not be selling. Just a loan.
 
Solovyov: "For a man, war is a lot more comfortable than peace. Everything is clear over there."


 
CNN reporting:
A senior Ukrainian official in the east of the country says the armed forces are in control of current positions but that "moving forward is very difficult" because the Russians have brought up substantial reserves.

Referring to the north-south frontline running between Svatove and Kreminna, Hayday said: "Moving forward there is very difficult because the occupiers have brought up huge reserves. And as I have said many times before -- everything is very thoroughly mined there."

"There are huge numbers of them [Russian troops in the Svatove-Kreminna area]. And a very large number of mobilized. And they are constantly being thrown into the offensive - almost all the time....And the huge problem is that there are just an incredible number of them. That is why every meter of the Luhansk region is extremely difficult to gain."
 
Does she have the decision-making power with regards to allowing/blocking Leopard deliveries?
Anyway, your turn Poland.
I don't know anything about German politics but if a foreign minister goes on record and says they won't stand in the way of the deliveries I would assume some kind of decision has been made.
 
Does she have the decision-making power with regards to allowing/blocking Leopard deliveries?
Anyway, your turn Poland.
No she hasn't. Weapon export licenses have to be signed by the minister of economy and the chancellor.

But these statements make it quite hard for the chancellor to act in another way as she (and economy minister Habeck) did state in public now.
 
Investigators in recent weeks have focused on the Russian Imperial Movement, a radical group that has members and associates across Europe and military-style training centers in St. Petersburg, the officials said.

They added that the group, which has been designated a global terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department, is believed to have ties to Russian intelligence agencies. Important members of the group have been in Spain, and the police there have tracked its ties with far-right Spanish organizations.

 
Prolonging this war is clearly beneficial for Russia. There are enough helpless people to be mobilized, and economy, while slowly deteriorating, still has enough ability to produce a lot of equipment and support the army.

Hope US and allies have a plan and ready to help Ukraine till the end (which means pushing Russia out from occupied territories).

For now it looks like Russia took the initiative, has nothing to lose and is determined to make another attempt to take full control over Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions at least.

Yes. And prolonging the war is clearly beneficial for Russia because this is a one-way war. It is only Ukraine that is being destroyed, their civilians, their roads, their bridges, their electricity generating plants, their whole infrastructure.

In April 1942, just 4 months after Perl Harbor, the Americans attempted the Doolittle raid. This was a suicide bombing mission on Tokyo, just to show the Japanese that their mainland was not safe. And of course, the British bombed Berlin in August 1940, even though their bombers barely had the range back then, and they had a lot of casualties. Neither the British nor the Americans are known for suicide missions, but that's what they did, just to show the enemy that they can hit back.

In this war, the Russians can bomb Kyiv whenever they like, but the Ukrainians are forbidden to hit Moscow...
 
Yes. And prolonging the war is clearly beneficial for Russia because this is a one-way war. It is only Ukraine that is being destroyed, their civilians, their roads, their bridges, their electricity generating plants, their whole infrastructure.

In April 1942, just 4 months after Perl Harbor, the Americans attempted the Doolittle raid. This was a suicide bombing mission on Tokyo, just to show the Japanese that their mainland was not safe. And of course, the British bombed Berlin in August 1940, even though their bombers barely had the range back then, and they had a lot of casualties. Neither the British nor the Americans are known for suicide missions, but that's what they did, just to show the enemy that they can hit back.

In this war, the Russians can bomb Kyiv whenever they like, but the Ukrainians are forbidden to hit Moscow...

Its actually more beneficial to the west because Putin doesn't have the resources to prolong this much longer without completely destabilizing himself at home, then still losing in Ukraine. The west would like to weaken or completely overthrow him (by domestic revolution).
 
I don't know anything about German politics but if a foreign minister goes on record and says they won't stand in the way of the deliveries I would assume some kind of decision has been made.
No she hasn't. Weapon export licenses have to be signed by the minister of economy and the chancellor.

But these statements make it quite hard for the chancellor to act in another way as she (and economy minister Habeck) did state in public now.

Just heard on radio that Germany is only waiting for the US to compensate the deliveries by selling their Abrams tank to Germany (So far the U.S. has not made any promise of letting Germany have its Abrams tanks) … Germany wants the US fully associated to the delivery green light before giving it… According to the same person, Germany isn’t going public with the state of its complicated negotiations with US because the relationship with the current US administration (unlike with Trump’s) are very good...

While the Polish government is willing to publicly embarrass Germany for internal politics. They feel that they’ve been swallowing too much “wokism” driven by the Germany-led EU and the German “reluctance” to fully support Ukraine is a great opportunity for some revenge…
 
A few long range missiles sent from the Ukraine to the Kremlin; how would that go down?
I’d imagine retribution would be swift and cause a lot of civilian deaths in the UKR?
 
A few long range missiles sent from the Ukraine to the Kremlin; how would that go down?
I’d imagine retribution would be swift and cause a lot of civilian deaths in the UKR?
They'd be shot down.
 
They'd be shot down.

Maybe, but it’s largely untested. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Russia was so confident that nobody would dare attack Moscow, that they don’t actually have particularly functional or effective air defences.
 
Just heard on radio that Germany is only waiting for the US to compensate the deliveries by selling their Abrams tank to Germany (So far the U.S. has not made any promise of letting Germany have its Abrams tanks) … Germany wants the US fully associated to the delivery green light before giving it… According to the same person, Germany isn’t going public with the state of its complicated negotiations with US because the relationship with the current US administration (unlike with Trump’s) are very good...

While the Polish government is willing to publicly embarrass Germany for internal politics. They feel that they’ve been swallowing too much “wokism” driven by the Germany-led EU and the German “reluctance” to fully support Ukraine is a great opportunity for some revenge…
I guess you misunderstood something - Germany definitely isn't interested in buying Abrams, but Germany would like to see the US deliver Abrams to Ukraine to show that it's a common effort.
 
Prolonging this war is clearly beneficial for Russia. There are enough helpless people to be mobilized, and economy, while slowly deteriorating, still has enough ability to produce a lot of equipment and support the army.

Hope US and allies have a plan and ready to help Ukraine till the end (which means pushing Russia out from occupied territories).

For now it looks like Russia took the initiative, has nothing to lose and is determined to make another attempt to take full control over Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions at least.

Then why are they looking for peace negotiations?
 
Maybe, but it’s largely untested. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Russia was so confident that nobody would dare attack Moscow, that they don’t actually have particularly functional or effective air defences.

More likely is that Moscow is the only city that is properly defended. There are other cities they could go for.
 
Then why are they looking for peace negotiations?
It's just so they are able to say out loud to their partners in the developing world that they are on the side of peace. And never give back the territories that they have already occupied.
I've never seen a government that systematically lies and tries to deceive as much as the Russian one does. Maybe North Korea does
 
Whilst I would never advocate for the targeting and killing of civilians, it does feel like for the average Russian, they probably don’t particularly care about this war because it doesn’t really affect them in most cases.

Perhaps a few strikes on actual urban areas would open their eyes and bring reality home a bit, and therefore put more pressure on Putin. It would be hard to justify though, and would risk causing Ukraines support and morale high ground to dry up. Still it’s ridiculous that Russia can just keep striking Ukrainian civilian centres but apparently Ukraine isn’t allowed to retaliate.