There was a discussion about F16s in here some time ago. This is a good thread on what they can and can't offer in Ukraine.
This is an excellent article to be honest.
Doubtless no one comes remotely close to having the breath and depth of tools the US has for achieving air-supremacy. Equally the F-16 is no panacea, it needs to be part of a combined wings (my term) aerial warfare to achieve optimum results. That said, I don't believe you need U.S. level of tools to achieve that against Russian SAMs and air-force in Ukraine.
Would Ukraine benefit from B-2 stealth bombers, 5th gen stealth fighters, dozens of AWACS and Air Refuelling jets etc. etc. Yes, of course. But does it
need all of that to achieve its aims. I don't believe so. The U.S. doctrine is to have an air force so numerically and technologically superior, with such a breadth of tools at its disposal, that not only can it achieve complete aerial superiority against any enemy but it can do so with such an overwhelming force that it's not even contest. Which crucially means that it happens quickly and that the U.S. doesn't suffer any significant losses in the process. But that obviously isn't and can't be the aim of Ukraine.
Back to the F-16, he is totally right. Alone, it would be limited to low-altitude sorties and be vulnerable to MANPADS. But what the F-16 alone would achieve, is to move the UAF away from its dwindling stock of old MiG and Sukhoi fighters and onto a newer and more widely available platform where they can keep receiving deliveries into the future.Ensuring there is no Russian air superiority in the medium or long term, while would increasing the UAF's capabilities for providing ground support to its troops during offensives. That alone is very important.
Now if you want to give Ukraine more tools so they can start aiming for air superiority, they'll need to receive a mix of platforms and weapons:
- F/A 18 Growlers with HARM missiles for the EW & SEAD role
- Eurofighters with Meteors and IRIS-T for escorting & air-superiority role at high altitudes
- F-16 Block 52s for ground support & bombing
I think it's important to recognise that Ukraine needs these tools, to communicate to Ukraine that they will get them, to quickly set up a training facility somewhere in Central Europe for their pilots to begin training (first on their individual elements and then on combined missions) and to start planning out the logistics for the delivery of those platforms to Ukraine. The target can't be 2023, it should be spring 2024.
Again, messaging is important. Need to get it through Putin's skull that there won't be no easing. That the longer he stays in Ukraine, it's only going to get harder and bloodier for Russia. Currently Russian leadership still thinks they can bleed Ukraine dry before more meaningful support arrives for Ukraine. As Rob Lee says, they are still playing to win.
The messaging to Russia needs to change from "we're going to make this very costly for you" to "you will lose, we'll absolutely make sure you do, and the only question remaining is how badly do you want to get beaten before you come to realise this".