What is the benefit to China in helping Russia out here. Surely they recognize that Russia has alienated basically the entire world, an entire world that China happens to do a lot of business with. Are the pros of helping Russia out here really worth the potential negatives to their relationships with everyone else?
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
It is yet more evidence against the neo Liberal thesis trade trumps all other interests.
Why are South Africa doing military exercises with Russia when they export ten times more to the EU than to Russia?
China likewise will exports 10 times more to the EU than they do to Russia.
There is a lot of people in charge who remember a certain world order and feel allegiance to that.
Russia primary sells gas and oil and shitty military equipment.
China sells everything to the rest of the world.
So they have a great deal to lose through sanctions.
In my view, China is playing politics as usual trying to be all things to all men.
And they want to keep Russia as a permanent member of the UN Security Council onboard in the event they decide to invade Taiwan.
Lets not kid ourselves here, Xi is cut from the same cloth as Putin, the difference is that hes not as bold/reckless and China's value as a trading partner far outweighs Russia . The rest of the world is as dependent on China as they are on it and Xi knows the kind of diplomatic/economic sanctions Russia are facing are very unlikely to hit them. China have been commiting atrocities for years without facing any sort of consequences .
I still remember the morning a year ago when I got the news about the attack and sick feeling I got in my stomach. I remember all the things what were happening during Croatian Homeland war and just thought - those poor people in Ukraine, what will they endure now... A year on and the war is alive and kicking, so are people who bought all the Russian lies and are acting as if Ukrainians are somehow at fault for Russians destroying and pillaging their country.
I also believe that China will start to supply the russian army in the near future. They need Russia as a counter weight against Nato and the west. Without them, they would stand alone. Western sanctions are still more tolerable than Putin's fall I assume. And those sanctions won't be too serious, because both sides depend way more on each other than Europe depended on Russia. You can always find other energy suppliers, but you can't find a second china market.
Also it's a good opportunity to test your own equipment. There is only so much you can do in training, but the real war will show results and I bet china is eager to test their own military strength regarding Taiwan.
I think they will start the supply with small deliveries like some drones and watch, how the west reacts. From there they will decide other steps.
Don’t think Russia has alienated the entire world. Beyond the Western and ex-Soviet states it doesn’t seem like the rest of the world is bothered much about what’s happening in Ukraine.
Would this even be allowed? Could scare Polish residents in the area.
I can understand that.
But China is coming from an entirely different position to that of Russia.
Russia is coming from a position of ruling the former Soviet Union with its Warsaw Pact allies. That has gone and Putin is determined to rebuild at least part of that. And he is using the threat from NATO and what he calls the Nazis in Ukraine.
Aside from Taiwan, China is less expansionist. And it has been investigating very heavily to make it far less dependent on Russia for military equipment. It does not have NATO right on its doorstep.
So I think that China position is more about posturing. It needs to show its support for its primary ally of course.
But it has significantly more to lose by openly supplying Russia with military equipment. If it really wanted to, why wait for a year to do that.
This is really grim
Destroyed Russian tank in front of the Russian embassy in Berlin
Sweden will send about 10 Stridsvagn122 tanks to Ukraine, it's basically a Leopard 2A5 with upgraded protection. They also announced that Hawk and Iris-T air defense systems will be sent.
I also think a part of it is simply not allowing the US and European NATO partners a win, which would give the overall alliance a boost in confidence when it comes to their ability and therefore willingness to support smaller nations against larger invaders, and would send a similar message to observers and leaders in the rest of the world.
If we think in terms of hypotheticals for a second, imagine that Ukraine were to secure victory in terms of restoring it's entire territory by end of 2024 (I know that it's probably optimistic). Unclear what happens in Russia politically, but the outcomes are probably more risky for China than status quo. Possibly boosts Biden's re-election chances vs a potentially isolationist GOP candidate (possibly DT), although I won't kid myself that would always depend more on situation in the US economy. But mostly everyone else watching in East and South Asia, Africa, and everywhere else China wants to have influence would likely conclude (at least until something else happens) that the US is the country that you don't want to challenge/whose side you want to be on. Both Russia and China were in one sense enjoying the years since 2003 when the relative power of the US was (rightly) being questioned, China would probably like that to continue.
The first 4 Leopards are in Ukraine!
In my opinion, China has the upperhand, Is true that lots of dependencies exists between the west and China, but the west are democracies with a complacent middle class that is trying to get by with its commodities, leisure and personal growth expectations. While China is an non democractic autocracy that 40 years ago had 3/4 of the population under extreme poverty. So the population can endure more and the government can control more. So in a war of economic attrition, China would win. Also, China's government grip, being stronger than the west is not as strong as before, for the same reason, because its citizens are demanding better standards as they are starting to create a big middle class. We saw it with their protests 1 or 2 months back about COVIC restrictions, so a conflict with the west that would justify a dip in their economy in the name of patriotism, to tighten the grip more and open the possibility to start talking to invade Taiwan, might make Xi the possibility to meddle with Russia-Ukraine war. As well, as someone point out here, test weapons in real war for a possible conflict in Taiwan
I think that China could meddle with the conflict because the west has more to lose than China, that is already being sanctioned technologically speaking, and there is already a cold war going on and the west is already diversifying supply chain to other asian countries. China will never have as much leverage than now.
I think that China could meddle with the conflict because the west has more to lose than China, that is already being sanctioned technologically speaking, and there is already a cold war going on and the west is already diversifying supply chain to other asian countries. China will never have as much leverage than now.
CNN: more sanctions.
Last edited:
A fair assessment that the existence of NATO is the only thing stopping Putin storming into Europe after murdering his way through Ukraine.
An interesting perspective.
A more simplistic view would be it's about money, Russia buys our stuff or pays for it with oil/gas
More and more media picking up on the China story.
From China's perspective they could gain a lot of influence over a country where they share a border of over 4,000km. As much as it's wrong, China would love to hold power over a country that borders Europe.
If the Putin regime falls, nothing says that the next Russian government would do less business and less diplomacy with China. At least nothing yet points towards that anyway.
The parts from General Mark Milley that deal with the real military situation are fascinating and insightful. Not surprising as he is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, but his small offered insights are very impactful. If he ever retires, he should write a book about the conflict
This is at a Ukrainian vigil in Toronto tonight. The anti-vax protestor (sound in the background) got put back in his place with a good reminder that there is a time for anything, but tonight.
"Hey, sir. I think Ukrainians can tell you a little bit about freedom and liberty. So why don't you settle down? This is a night for them, NOT for you! This is a night for Ukrainians, NOT for you!"
"Hey, sir. I think Ukrainians can tell you a little bit about freedom and liberty. So why don't you settle down? This is a night for them, NOT for you! This is a night for Ukrainians, NOT for you!"
Last edited:
If China wants to do that, the US should accidentally drop a shipment of enriched uranium off a ship on the Taiwanese coast. I would imagine Taiwan's nuclear breakout period would be very short.
The terrifying thing that the Invasion of Ukraine (like Gaddafi's downfall) has reinforced is the security that only nuclear weapons can provide. North Korea will never relinquish its nuclear weapons. South Korea is talking about developing its own nuclear arsenal. Once Iran acquires theirs (thanks to Donald Trump), they'll never give it up either, which leads to the Saudis wanting nukes.
@Sir Matt This is worth a read.
Taiwan and weapons of mass destruction (Wikipedia)
Their nuclear program was advancing well until the US told Taiwan to shut it down by 1987, which was 1-2 years away of becoming fully operational with the delivery system. In other words: go feck yourself, Reagan.
Taiwan and weapons of mass destruction (Wikipedia)
Their nuclear program was advancing well until the US told Taiwan to shut it down by 1987, which was 1-2 years away of becoming fully operational with the delivery system. In other words: go feck yourself, Reagan.
This is at a Ukrainian vigil in Toronto tonight. The anti-vax protestor (sound in the background) got put back in his place with a good reminder that there is a time for anything, but tonight.
"Hey, sir. I think Ukrainians can tell you a little bit about freedom and liberty. So why don't you settle down? This is a night for them, NOT for you! This is a night for Ukrainians, NOT for you!"
Good stuff from Trudeau
In the end, the only country that chose to voluntarily disarm itself after the Cold War, is the one that has been invaded. And the one that shut down its program is next on the list. Bleak prospect, and one of the biggest reasons why the russian invasion must fail.
Regarding China selling weapons to Russia, I personally don't think they will. It's better for China to keep sitting on the fence for this one, at least until they are in a better position to face the US. Anyway, the sole rumor of this has helped them counter the PR impact of Biden visiting Zelensky in Kyiv, so I assume they'll keep using the weapons narrative when needed.
It's starting to look really bad in Bakhmut. While the city itself holds, the situation in the north and sourth deteriates further.
Berkhivka to the north was captured yesterday and the H-32 highway to the south is contested and under constant shelling. That leaves only one road into Bakhmut under ukrainian control.
At some point Ukraine needs to make a choice whether to leave the city and give Russia their propaganda victory or risk a complete surround and a Mariupol 2.0.
It's true, that Russia loses thousands of soldiers on a weekly basis trying to capture the town, but they don't care about them anyways and many are Wagner mercenaries. That means they are willing to keep the numbers up. Is Ukraine also willing to sacrifice thousands of it's soldiers to fight for a town that has only propaganda value left? Wouldn't it be smarter to leave the town and use those forces in the upcoming counter offensive at some point? Like they did with Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk?
Berkhivka to the north was captured yesterday and the H-32 highway to the south is contested and under constant shelling. That leaves only one road into Bakhmut under ukrainian control.
At some point Ukraine needs to make a choice whether to leave the city and give Russia their propaganda victory or risk a complete surround and a Mariupol 2.0.
It's true, that Russia loses thousands of soldiers on a weekly basis trying to capture the town, but they don't care about them anyways and many are Wagner mercenaries. That means they are willing to keep the numbers up. Is Ukraine also willing to sacrifice thousands of it's soldiers to fight for a town that has only propaganda value left? Wouldn't it be smarter to leave the town and use those forces in the upcoming counter offensive at some point? Like they did with Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk?
That. And the comments about China not wanting to see Russia lose.