Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Zehner said:
What's the downsight to Putin getting this footage, though? Right now it doesn't seem as if a lack of domestic support is a problem for him. It is unlikely the Russian population will act anytime soon and if they do it is because the sanctions take their toll on them or because they lose their loved ones on the battle field, not because they think Russia as a state is losing a war.

Russia might have learned a thing or two from its mistakes but at least my impression is that they're still incredibly relentless with the lifes of their own soldiers, they're still fighting a war of attrition and it is questionable how long they can keep that up. A lot probably depends on whether China is going to support them with ammunition and weapons which could prolong the war significantly.

It's also worth mentioning that time is still on Ukraine's side, isn't it? At least as long as the NATO is supplying Ukraine. Economically, this war is much more costly to Russia than it is to the NATO. They aren't going to recover from the setback they'll have to endure. Core industries shrinking 40% within less than a year - especially in a country so reliant on a few economic sectors - is really bad. Especially when it comes hand in hand with losing up to 200k young males that would probably be part of the spine of their working class.
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I think time is more critical for UKR than Russia. This supposed UAF offensive in the spring or whenever that happens will probably have an impact on how this war will go, obviously. If they can kick the Russians out of a lot of areas in the east, it will look good for UAF. Otherwise, it would probably not end well for UKR in terms of supplies, manpower, and, of course, economy. People keep talking about how Russian industries are shrinking while forgetting that the UKR needs to sort out its own economy to keep on defending.

I do think that China will start supplying lethal weapons to Russia one way or another soon.
 
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China is helping to prop up the Russian economy. Here’s how

In the year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been hit by unprecedented Western sanctions and shut out of much of the global economy.

But China, which has declared “no limits” to its friendship with its northern neighbor, has thrown the Kremlin an economic lifeline, tempering the impact of its banishment from the global financial system
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/economy/china-russia-economic-ties-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html

A mysterious fleet is helping Russia ship oil around the world. And it’s growing

Russian oil is still finding its way to buyers around the world. But even those who spend their days tracking its movement across oceans struggle to work out exactly who is ferrying it.

As Western sanctions against Russia have escalated over its invasion of Ukraine, more ships have joined an existing fleet of mysterious tankers, ready to facilitate Russia’s oil exports.

Industry insiders estimate the size of that “shadow” fleet at roughly 600 vessels, or about 10% of the global number of large tankers. And numbers continue to climb.
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https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/business/russia-oil-shadow-fleet/index.html
 
Good piece about the underlying information war on both sides.

 
MadMike said:
First day of spring in in like 3 weeks. Weird Russkies.
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I think it was a huge mistake by the Russians to bank on this happening. It’s also very fortunate for us that it didn’t. If the rest of Europe had had to choose between warming its citizens and powering its industry this winter, I think we’d see huge pressure to normalise relations. As it is we’ve now got 6-8 months of relatively good weather to hopefully drop the price of oil and gas and build up a reserve for the next one.
 
the hea said:
Something very weird is going on in a village in Bryansk oblast.





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Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
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Yeah, video of those 2 with a flag and yellow stripes so nobody cant miss them looks legit.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
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The whole thing is just very weird.
First you have things like this which would indicate it is infact a attack comming from Ukraine.



But on the other hand it makes no sense why a sabotage group would be as big as the claimed 40-50 troops, why would they wear yellow battle markings while operating behind enemy lines and why attack civilians in a small village.
The whole thing makes no sense to me.
 
harms said:
I don’t use it as my main one but I’ve just checked and any of the three ExpressVPN servers that I’ve tried work without any issues.
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In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
 
Weird false flag. Another mobilisation taking place, or more dissent than we’re hearing about in Russia?
 
That didn't take long. Attacking one russian village is a terrorist attack, but bombing, raping and murdering tens of thousands civilians in Ukraine is acceptable. No hypocrisy to see here, moving on.
 
Sir Matt said:
In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
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Yeah, I've seen it and I've tried it with mobile too (I have the same operator as the twitter guy). To be fair expressVPN does their fair share of work to try and stay available so maybe they've switched something between his tweet and my check.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge
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Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?

This one does seem... sketchy to say the least though. Especially since Putin was apparently supposed so go there and now had to cancel his visit for security reasons.
 
harms said:
Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?
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No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
 
the hea said:
No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
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There's a tendency I think to see false flags everywhere when it concerns Russia. Good to just wait for more info.
 
RoyH1 said:
We owe him so much, don't we? Such a wise and kind man.
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At this point, I don't think these propagandist videos are worth posting anymore given that they don't really add anything to the thread.
 
Raoul said:
At this point, I don't think these propagandist videos are worth posting anymore given that they don't really add anything to the thread.
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I disagree. I think it's good to know what's being said on Russian state tv, get a feeling of what's on their mind.
 
VorZakone said:
I disagree. I think it's good to know what's being said on Russian state tv, get a feeling of what's on their mind.
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Nothing has changed from what has been said on state TV from day one. Its getting to be gratuitous spam.
 
Ragnar123 said:
Yeah smells like just another false flag operation like the crimean bridge to justify inhumane actions in Ukraine. Ukraine gets nothing out of it attacking a poor village. But Putin gets his "Ukraine are terrorists" narrative going which is his foundation for civilian terror in Ukraine and support at home. This goes 200 years back to the tsar who set Moscow on fire and told his people Napoleon did it. It's in their veins.

edit: I don't doubt there are partisan groups in Russia working, that's why we saw an unusual amount of fires last year in russia. But those are not dumb enough to attack some meaningless villages and even make photos for Social Media for it.
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I don't think it was a false flag at all. The Ukrainians have been sinking ships, attacking bridges, using drones to attack sites within Russia for most of the war.
 
VorZakone said:
Thanks Putin...

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It is mind blowing there are people out there who actually believe this balatantly obvious propaganda nonsense. There's not even nuance to it, it is just obvious and clumsy manipulation.
 
Sir Matt said:
In follow-up responses, it seems that it was impacting mostly data over cell service, rather than home internet.
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As we've seen in Iran and a few other places, its nearly impossible for governments to completely cut their public off from outside information. Even uber-totalitarian North Korea can't do it, since South Koreans are sending balloons into the country with news from the outside. The Russians, who are pretty tech savvy, would have devised all sorts of ways to get around any VPN blocks.
 
the hea said:
No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
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I think they've rebuilt the damage pretty quickly, so I wouldn't speak about strategic consequences but it was always more of a symbolic gesture (and a heck of a symbolic gesture at that — Putin & the goons were fuming).
 
Zehner said:
It is mind blowing there are people out there who actually believe this balatantly obvious propaganda nonsense. There's not even nuance to it, it is just obvious and clumsy manipulation.
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Few believe it, even in Russia. The distinction between 'Pravda' and 'Istina' (both meaning 'truth') perhaps illustrates the post-soviet nihilism concerning truth. 'Pravda' already stood for subjective truth, with moral and legal tones (the ancient kievan rus legal code was called 'pravda'), implying norms of norms and values for behaviour. Then of course you have the broadsheet Pravda, which was the communist propaganda organ of choice throughout the soviet period. In contrast to Istrida, which has more a connnotation of 'objective truth'. Pravda has been stretched to the point of torture for at least a century in Russia by now.

I reckon most Russians hearing all that don't even ponder the believability of it. The takeaway is not facts, but how you are supposed to think about it and react, to either succeed (for the patriots) or not get in trouble (for the conscientious pragmatist). For a lot of russians, all sides lie and 'twas ever thus.
 
harms said:
Ehm, was the crimean bridge bombing a false flag operation? Did I miss something?
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Raoul said:
I don't think it was a false flag at all. The Ukrainians have been sinking ships, attacking bridges, using drones to attack sites within Russia for most of the war.
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the hea said:
No way. If that was the case it would be the most stupid false flag operation in history. The destruction of the bridge has been extremly problematic for Russia and their ability to supply the troops in Crimea and southern Ukraine.
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In my opinion it was. I always ask myself who benefits more if we don't know the truth and for me it's clearly Russia.
The bridge was still usable after the attack. One lane got destroyed and the train track got damaged. The cars used just the other lane for the time being and the train tracks were repaired pretty quick if I remember correctly. Further, they scan and inspect every truck driving on that bridge.

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That leaves a boat? Could be, but pretty unlikely in my opinion, because it had to go a long way around crimea unnoticed and because only one lane collapsed and the other had no damage at all, which makes a truck bomb much more likely. And who benefited most from that attack? Russia of course, because soon after they started their missile terror right before the winter as an answer to that bridge attack. A pretty good trade for a half usable bridge for a few months in my opinion. I think that incident was needed by Putin to justify his civilian terror. He chose a prestige object worth mentioning, but did not hit it that hard for it to become a real problem.
 
Ragnar123 said:
In my opinion it was. I always ask myself who benefits more if we don't know the truth and for me it's clearly Russia.
The bridge was still usable after the attack. One lane got destroyed and the train track got damaged. The cars used just the other lane for the time being and the train tracks were repaired pretty quick if I remember correctly. Further, they scan and inspect every truck driving on that bridge.

FeiFOPWXoAEFzCD.jpg

That leaves a boat? Could be, but pretty unlikely in my opinion, because it had to go a long way around crimea unnoticed and because only one lane collapsed and the other had no damage at all, which makes a truck bomb much more likely. And who benefited most from that attack? Russia of course, because soon after they started their missile terror right before the winter as an answer to that bridge attack. A pretty good trade for a half usable bridge for a few months in my opinion. I think that incident was needed by Putin to justify his civilian terror. He chose a prestige object worth mentioning, but did not hit it that hard for it to become a real problem.
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The train track closer to the highway has still not been repaired and the other one is only open to lighter passanger trains, if I'm not mistaken. It was and to some point still is a major bottle neck for Russian logistics going to Crimea and Souther Ukraine. There is only one other railway that goes From Russian controlled areas into Southern Ukraine and Crimea and that line runs only 18km from Vuhledar, this is most likely why the Russians are so desperate to capture the city and push Ukrainian artillery further away from the railway line.

I just don't see why they would choose to destroy one of their most important supply lines as a false flag when there is thousands of other targets to choose from that wouldn't affect their war effort in Ukraine.
 
The United said:
I do think that China will start supplying lethal weapons to Russia one way or another soon.
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I think the West would rightly see that as extremely provocative by China and it would get a hard response. Nor can I see what China would strategically gain from it. It's one thing to buy Russian oil on the quiet, but this I think would be seen as destabilising. They'd have done it by now if they were going to.
 
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nickm said:
I think the West would rightly see that as extremely provocative by China and it would get a hard response. Nor can I see what China would gain from it. It's one thing to buy Russian oil on the quiet, but this I think would be seen as destabilising.
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But what would be our response? Can we really give them a hard response without absolutely wrecking ourselves too? I think China are holding the best cards here.
 
dove said:
But what would be our response? Can we really give them a hard response without absolutely wrecking ourselves too? I think China are holding the best cards here.
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The obvious answer would be to be more public in western support to Taiwan, possibly including more senior western leader visits to Taipei.
 
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