Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
An ode to the MAGA base. He will get torched for a it if he ever makes it to a Gen.
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Especially as he has a track record as a congressman of voting for assistance to Ukraine
 
calodo2003 said:
Clashes slightly with his 2014 / 5 statements...

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Which is probably closer to what he believes. He's just pandering to Trump voters at the moment because he thinks it will give him political cachet in his inevitable showdown with Trump.
 
Raoul said:
Which is probably closer to what he believes. He's just pandering to Trump voters at the moment because he thinks it will give him political cachet in his inevitable showdown with Trump.
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Do these people really 'believe' anything?
 
JuriM said:
Not really, but they are very confident at their saying and we saw how successful there were with Kherson's surprise attack, seeing how most of the latest tanks and other artillery isn't even fully got to Ukraine, if they have most of the stuff ready and set - there will be some sort of attack coming.
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Ragnar123 said:
I think they are capable of both at the same time. First of all, offense and defense need different equipment. To hold Bakhmut, they need menpower, artillery, drones and anti armor weapons. But to attack, they need most of all MBTs and IFVs to breach russian defenses. Of course you need significant numbers of troops for both, but it seems like a shortage of troops is not a problem so far. There are also thousands ua soldiers in training in many western states right now. I believe Ukraine has enough reserves, especially because they don't throw them into the meat grinder like Russia does. Development of smart tactics together with Nato, western equipment and a good healthcare greatly increase the life expectancy of a soldier. As soon as the western armor arrives, we can expect Ukraine to take the initiative again. It won't be as easy as the last one of course, because even Russians learn through mistakes, but I think they had more than enough time to prepare a good tactic.
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Cheers, both.
 
JuriM said:
Not really, but they are very confident at their saying and we saw how successful there were with Kherson's surprise attack, seeing how most of the latest tanks and other artillery isn't even fully got to Ukraine, if they have most of the stuff ready and set - there will be some sort of attack coming.
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As soon as Ukraine will get the new stuff, I say they must race through the south with one main target in mind: Sevastopol. That is the prize because it would make a world of difference when it comes to maritime security for Ukraine by neutralizing the main Russian naval threat in the area. It is the modern day version of Port Arthur as a victory there followed by a conquest of Crimea would give Ukraine a far more advantageous position ahead of any peace talks.

Sir Matt said:
More details:

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That fighter pilot must have found his licence in a box of Cracker Jacks.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
As soon as Ukraine will get the new stuff, I say they must race through the south with one main target in mind: Sevastopol. That is the prize because it would make a world of difference when it comes to maritime security for Ukraine by neutralizing the main Russian naval threat in the area. It is the modern day version of Port Arthur as a victory there followed by a conquest of Crimea would give Ukraine a far more advantageous position ahead of any peace talks.
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Tough one. I would think an attack towards Melitopol/Mariupol makes more sense at first. Break through to the coast, destroy the bridge and put coastal defenses in place so that Russia can't resupply Crimea as it would need to.
 
Dans said:
I think it's actually time for a new thread to talk about Russia in a non Ukraine invasion context.

Take this film (not sure where I came across it now) which will probably lead you to the conclusion that it is nigh on impossible to imagine Russia as a "normal" country any time in the next 50 years.

Putin and his FSB are utter scum.

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Oh, I thought that it sounded familiar. Saw some excerpts from that earlier & they were asking the director about Tesak when the latter mysteriously died/was killed in prison.

To be fair if anything this video shows that a change can happen to a country (and did happen in Russia) very quickly. The issue is, that change doesn't always comes for the best.

In the 90's you've had financially motivated mobs (that either killed each other off or got enough power to legitimize themselves and go into politics), in the 00's there was a scary rise of neo-nazism from the ground up and in the 10's Russia ended up getting strangled by siloviki (FSB, police & the rest of them), who almost completely eliminated the threat of those neo-nazi groups by destroying them and incorporating whatever was left of them (not as much in terms of the personnel but more so ideologically — I'm talking about the internal validation of brutal violence, general resentment and feeling of being completely untouchable). And now we have a genocidal war with daily war crimes as the result.
 
Interested in your take here @harms - mine was that all of this rising up of Neo Nazis was actively encouraged by the FSB and therefore very likely with Putin's approval as an effort to ensure an election win. That these Neo Nazi types exist wasn't for me the point here - they are everywhere. It's the use of them that is so disturbing. I do also think that the hooligan rampages at the UEFA Euros in France in 2016 were probably also something Putin encouraged.
 
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Seems like this wasn't covered here before: https://focus.de/politik/ausland/uk...n-der-ukraine-getestet-wird_id_188145854.html

Apparently two Skyranger systems are already in Ukraine and are being field tested. It's basically the successor to the Gepard (both being a 35mm SPAAG), technically it is a mobile version of MANTIS which is used by the Bundeswehr to protect field camps like in Afghanistan.

As SPAAGs are the most cost-effective solution to fight Shaheds and similar systems Ukraine really needs more of them, but there just are only a few left in the world because most switched to missile-based air defense systems.
 
stefan92 said:
Seems like this wasn't covered here before: https://focus.de/politik/ausland/uk...n-der-ukraine-getestet-wird_id_188145854.html

Apparently two Skyranger systems are already in Ukraine and are being field tested. It's basically the successor to the Gepard (both being a 35mm SPAAG), technically it is a mobile version of MANTIS which is used by the Bundeswehr to protect field camps like in Afghanistan.

As SPAAGs are the most cost-effective solution to fight Shaheds and similar systems Ukraine really needs more of them, but there just are only a few left in the world because most switched to missile-based air defense systems.
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These systems will soon be in series production again. The whole world sees how effective cheap drones are right now and the only efficient way to shoot them down is with bullets, not missiles. The manufacturer with the best system will make billions because of this war, so I expect a race for this and germany has very good chances here because of the Gepard knowledge. Many countries will order them after watching what drones do in Ukraine on both sides.
 
Dans said:
Interested in your take here @harms - mine was that all of this rising up of Neo Nazis was actively encouraged by the FSB and therefore very likely with Putin's approval as an effort to ensure an election win. That these Neo Nazi types exist wasn't for me the point here - they are everywhere. It's the use of them that is so disturbing. I do also think that the hooligan rampages at the UEFA Euros in France in 2016 were probably also something Putin encouraged.
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FSB certainly weren’t controlling them directly but for a while they certainly thought that they could manipulate them, yeah. That ended in 2010 when football hooligans went to Manezhnaya square (which is right in front of Kremlin) after the murder of one of theirs — that scared Putin & FSB a lot and they’ve liquidated more or less any significant neo-Nazi organization & imprisoned a bunch of their leaders.

As for the rampages in Europe — who knows. I’d imagine that FSB most likely knew of these plans at the very least.
 
calodo2003 said:
Confused as to why this wasn’t done months & months ago.
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There is a little nitpick about the Polish MiG-29... they need German approval to deliver them to Ukraine, as those are ex-GDR jets. Same situation as with the Polish Leopard 2 in that regard, albeit much less discussed.
 
calodo2003 said:
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Good idea to release the footage as it will humiliate the Russians a bit after they initially denied the US story of what happened.

This will only further legitimize the need to arm the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated weapons.
 
the hea said:
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Amazing how this was unthinkable a year ago and now it has such broad support. Sometimes it seem like things move far too slowly (and probably that's true) but it's definitely going forward.
 
I think its moved slowly for many reasons but the overwhelming reason is to understand the nature of the response from russia. I believe now its considered that russia are not likely to respond with a nuclear threat.

The other major reason is training, can only assume years of training have been crammed in to months.
 
dal said:
I think its moved slowly for many reasons but the overwhelming reason is to understand the nature of the response from russia. I believe now its considered that russia are not likely to respond with a nuclear threat.

The other major reason is training, can only assume years of training have been crammed in to months.
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I believe Ukraine has Mig-29 among their fleet so not much training needed. I was more a matter of the frog in a warm kettle. They couldn't give airplanes right away due to, as you said, nuclear threat escalation
 
calodo2003 said:
Confused as to why this wasn’t done months & months ago.
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Because the West was afraid that Putin will perceive this as an escalation.

Which I always thought it's completely illogical. For two main reasons:
1. Putin does not need any "reasons" to escalate if he wants to. He has been lying since day one, all his "reasons" for starting this war were lies, and he can manufacture many more. Putin is KGB, and for the KGB lies were an essential tool.
2. It is Putin who should be scared that the West will escalate, not the other way around!

On the other hand, Putin knew that our leaders are cowards, and that's one of the main reasons he started this war. He knew the West are complacent and they would seek "peace" no matter what he has done, no matter how many he has killed. If he believed that our leaders are not cowards, he would have never started this war.


Anyway, it is great that NATO finally decided that giving military jets to Ukraine is not an escalation! I hope they will soon decide to give them F-16s, too.
 
calodo2003 said:
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I swear that Western pilots should perhaps give Tu-95s the same "courtesy" on the next time those planes get near forbidden airspaces. That Russian pilot alone flies that jet as if he found his credentials in a box of Cracker Jacks.

Raoul said:
Good idea to release the footage as it will humiliate the Russians a bit after they initially denied the US story of what happened.

This will only further legitimize the need to arm the Ukrainians with increasingly sophisticated weapons.
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Indeed. Anyone pedalling talking points from the Kremlin now and after watching this should be outright called out as a total idiot.
 
Some quotes from ex-cons who joined Wagner.

He cited limited prospects available in Russia’s civilian economy as pushing him towards returning to Wagner.

“People work hard without days off for 12-14 hours a day, and at best they earn 50-60,000 roubles ($672-$806) a month,” said Yermakov, who told Reuters he has two small daughters. “I will return to the (Wagner) company and I will definitely be able to earn 150,000 roubles ($2,000) a month.”
For others, a return to Wagner offers an alternative to sinking back into a life of crime. Kuzhelev, who has spent almost seven of his 29 years in prison, told Reuters that he hoped that service in Wagner would enable his young daughter to build a career in future, without the stigma of her father’s criminal past.

“My daughter, when she grows up, can go on to study banking, or attend the police academy,” said Kuzhelev. “And she will not have problems because her father was in prison. Isn't that motivation? Of course it is.”
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https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/
 
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