Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[calodo2003]

 

[NicolaSacco]

I think it will not end in a long long time irrespective of Putin falling out of a window. Russia as a nation is so far gone that it would take decades to sober up from the hundreds of years propaganda, and that is assuming their new leader would somehow be different than their former ones which is highly unlikely.

I’d imagine that people said similar when Gorbachev came to power, and yet he was able to push through a huge drawdown of Soviet troops from abroad, and significantly alter their posture. A leader with the right understanding of the situation could feasibly change things. I might be saying that more in hope than expectation though.

 

[the hea]

If you make it into Crimea proper, perhaps, i don't really have a clue about Crimea, but just looking at the map, there is a narrow point of entry, and then a bunch of lakes.

You would imagine getting through there will be anything but easy.

The best way is probably to retake Kherson oblast and take out the Kerch bridge, this will cut off all supply routes into Crimea. After that they keep pressure on them with long range precision strikes and wait for them to give up. Basically what they did in Kherson last autumn.

 

[VorZakone]

Russia again seeking munitions from North Korea.

Russia is seeking to acquire more munitions from North Korea to bolster its war on Ukraine, the White House revealed on Thursday.
The development comes as Moscow has sought help from other countries such as Iran as it continues to expend equipment and ammunition on the battlefield.

In a briefing with reporters, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Vladimir Putin would likely send food to Pyongyang in exchange for the munitions.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/30/russia-seeking-munitions-from-north-korea-00089672

 

[nickm]

The problem is that Russia is a mafia state, so Putin does not have to promise anything to anyone. He will just say that everything is fine, and if someone says it isn't, he will go to prison. This is not different from any violent, militaristic dictatorship.

I guess we will see. He sits on top of a society of thieves. If theres nothing left to steal, that golden throne he sits on is going to look very tempting.

 

[Krakenzero]

If you make it into Crimea proper, perhaps, i don't really have a clue about Crimea, but just looking at the map, there is a narrow point of entry, and then a bunch of lakes.

You would imagine getting through there will be anything but easy.

IIRC the water supply to Crimea comes from the Dnieper river, specifically Nova Khakovka. If the UA secures it, then the region runs dry. It appears to be a good strategy -slowly suffocate Crimea while focusing its forces in the Donbas an Zaporzhizhia. Altough they have surprised us before.

 

[4bars]

Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.

If that happens I can totally see Putin going nuclear and then maybe being thrown out of a window.

He is +70 years old, similar his pals. The "feck it" button is just there and if he can't win, he will go in destruction mode

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

IIRC the water supply to Crimea comes from the Dnieper river, specifically Nova Khakovka. If the UA secures it, then the region runs dry. It appears to be a good strategy -slowly suffocate Crimea while focusing its forces in the Donbas an Zaporzhizhia. Altough they have surprised us before.

Nova Kharkova is where I would aim first alongside the destruction of Kerch Bridge. Nevertheless, I'm still on board with the idea of Ukraine crushing whatever resistance left standing in Crimea. The strategic value of the peninsula is way too important for Ukraine to not go all in; it is Ukraine's Port-Arthur (in a reference to the Russo-Japanese War). Taking over Crimea would also mean Russia losing a large chunk of naval influence in the Black Sea.

 

[Pintu]

After Hungary, Turkey ratifies Finland’s membership… Finland is now all but a member of the alliance… That’s over 1300 km (830 miles) of Russia’s borders now becoming NATO territory…

28 of the 30 countries have ratified Sweden’s. Only Hungary and Turkey left.

 

[frostbite]

‘Vulkan files’ leak reveals Putin’s global and domestic cyberwarfare tactics

Documents leaked by whistleblower angry over Ukraine war

Private Moscow consultancy bolstering Russian cyberwarfare

Tools support hacking operations and attacks on infrastructure

Documents linked to notorious Russian hacking group Sandworm

Russian program aims to control internet and spread disinformation


https://www.theguardian.com/technol...tins-global-and-domestic-cyberwarfare-tactics

 

[Dans]

Possibly. Personally I think if Ukraine is able to push the Russians out this year, maybe take Crimea back, Putin's out the window. Too many losses and losers, in people, prestige, materiel and assets. And Putin won't be able to promise that things will get better given his economy is being slowly suffocated. All those losses, all for nothing, and it'll never improve while he is leader. He's done. Kadyrov or some other chancer with a power base and who fancies his chances, will do him.

I cannot see Muscovites accepting Kadyrov in such a role.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

This isn't going to look good on Paris, France nor the IOC unless they change their stance on Russian athletes.



Seems to me people have forgotten that South Africa (under Apartheid) and Yugoslavia were banned from participating in the Olympics altogether before. This ain't new.

 

[dove]

This isn't going to look good on Paris, France nor the IOC unless they change their stance on Russian athletes.



Seems to me people have forgotten that South Africa (under Apartheid) and Yugoslavia were banned from participating in the Olympics altogether before. This ain't new.

Yea I don't see how they can sustain that shocking decision to allow Russians. I think quite a few countries would follow suit in support of Ukraine too if needed.

 

[Ragnar123]

This isn't going to look good on Paris, France nor the IOC unless they change their stance on Russian athletes.



Seems to me people have forgotten that South Africa (under Apartheid) and Yugoslavia were banned from participating in the Olympics altogether before. This ain't new.

But ZA and Yogoslavia didn't buy the IOC back in the days as Russia and China do today.
The west needs to give the corrupt IOC a choice. Without the two warmongering (Russia and Belarus) countries or without us. I hope we don't let Ukraine stand alone on this one. Many russian athletes are officers in their army or support Putin's politics in other ways.

 

[stevoc]

Yea I don't see how they can sustain that shocking decision to allow Russians. I think quite a few countries would follow suit in support of Ukraine too if needed.

Yep I hope other countries pull out in protest.

 

[Ragnar123]

After Hungary, Turkey ratifies Finland’s membership… Finland is now all but a member of the alliance… That’s over 1300 km (830 miles) of Russia’s borders now becoming NATO territory…

28 of the 30 countries have ratified Sweden’s. Only Hungary and Turkey left.

But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.

 

[Bobcat]

But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.

Of course he will, but how much of a "win" for him is it really? Hes been huffing and puffing about supposed "Kurdish terrorists" but do the Turkish people really care that much?

 

[stevoc]

But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.

Isn't there a pretty decent chance Erdogan won't be the president in a few months?

Have any of the other candidates said anything about Sweden joining NATO?

 

[dove]

But didn't they say they will not join without Sweden? It's all for nothing, if Erdogan doesn't allow Sweden to join. And we can expect that he will blackmail and drag Sweden's application to the maximum, until he gets the most out of it.

I think they will once Turkey gets whatever they want in exchange.

 

[Ragnar123]

Isn't there a pretty decent chance Erdogan won't be the president in a few months?

Let's hope so, but Erdogan doesn't seem the type to step down quietly and he has still a strong support in rural areas. Let's see what happens.

Back on topic, it's exactly one year ago when the world discovered russian inhumane war crimes after liberating Bucha and Irpin.





I fear what we'll find out after Ukraine liberates Mariupol.....

 

[dove]

Let's hope so, but Erdogan doesn't seem the type to step down quietly and he has still a strong support in rural areas. Let's see what happens.

Back on topic, it's exactly one year ago when the world discovered russian inhumane war crimes after liberating Bucha and Irpin.





I fear what we'll find out after Ukraine liberates Mariupol.....

I don't think we will find out much to be honest. They had a decent amount of time to hide all traces, and still continue doing so.

 

[Shakesy]

Personally, if I have learned anything from this war, it's that 'hot' wars are not a thing of the past, as I was told in school.

WMDs don't mean anything if a WMD country goes on the attack.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

But ZA and Yogoslavia didn't buy the IOC back in the days as Russia and China do today.
The west needs to give the corrupt IOC a choice. Without the two warmongering (Russia and Belarus) countries or without us. I hope we don't let Ukraine stand alone on this one. Many russian athletes are officers in their army or support Putin's politics in other ways.

I hope that major Olympic federations will send that ultimatum for real this time. The US, Canada, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Poland, and many more among those larger Western/Allied federations should outright threaten the IOC of a full boycott. We already fecked up with the message that had to be sent before Beijing and thus saw some of the worst Olympics in recent memory last year. We can't afford to miss the shot this time.

 

[Maagge]

I hope that major Olympic federations will send that ultimatum for real this time. The US, Canada, the UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Poland, and many more among those larger Western/Allied federations should outright threaten the IOC of a full boycott. We already fecked up with the message that had to be sent before Beijing and thus saw some of the worst Olympics in recent memory last year. We can't afford to miss the shot this time.

The Danish fencing association or whatever they're called cancelled a major international tournament because the international association would allow Belarusians and Russians to compete. Everyone should do the same. It's a shame for all the other nationalities caught up in cancelled tournaments, but if everyone cancels the international association has to do something.

 

[RedRover]

If that happens I can totally see Putin going nuclear and then maybe being thrown out of a window.

He is +70 years old, similar his pals. The "feck it" button is just there and if he can't win, he will go in destruction mode

Why would any one follow those orders at that point? He may have nothing to live for but plenty of others have. He brought this on himself. Who's going to go over the cliff edge with him?

He's a coward who sits at 20m long tables to avoid catching Covid. The nuclear rhetoric died down when the US made comments to the effect that Russia had been made aware of what would happen if tactical nuclear weapons were used, apparently "decapitation" strikes, or the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet and the wiping out of all Russian forces outside Russian borders. When the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile killed the Polish farmer they were instantly denying responsibility for fear of reprisals from NATO.

No doubt the elites will already be planning for life without Putin, who they'll side with when he's gone and the power struggle begins and how they're going to keep themselves out of the Hague. They're all gangsters who enjoy rich living, not ideologues ready to die for a cause. His power and influence has eroded and will continue to erode and eventually, someone will finish him - if the cancer doesn't get him first. He'll end up like most dictators.

 

[Raoul]

I think they will once Turkey gets whatever they want in exchange.

Given their location to Russia, Finland membership is far more relevant than Sweden's delayed entry.

 

[dove]

Putin's cronies are starting to call for piece like clockwork. China's president also mentioned some peace plan during his visit to Russia recently.







Here is a very modest and realistic list of requirements:

 

[Maagge]

Putin's cronies are starting to call for piece like clockwork. China's president also mentioned some peace plan during his visit to Russia recently.







Here is a very modest and realistic list of requirements:

So they still don't want peace apparently.

 

[4bars]

Why would any one follow those orders at that point? He may have nothing to live for but plenty of others have. He brought this on himself. Who's going to go over the cliff edge with him?

He's a coward who sits at 20m long tables to avoid catching Covid. The nuclear rhetoric died down when the US made comments to the effect that Russia had been made aware of what would happen if tactical nuclear weapons were used, apparently "decapitation" strikes, or the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet and the wiping out of all Russian forces outside Russian borders. When the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile killed the Polish farmer they were instantly denying responsibility for fear of reprisals from NATO.

No doubt the elites will already be planning for life without Putin, who they'll side with when he's gone and the power struggle begins and how they're going to keep themselves out of the Hague. They're all gangsters who enjoy rich living, not ideologues ready to die for a cause. His power and influence has eroded and will continue to erode and eventually, someone will finish him - if the cancer doesn't get him first. He'll end up like most dictators.

Hey, Is what I believe not a certainty. Would knows who has in charge of the nuclear strikes and their mentality and how warped is it. Seeing how some russians have this dystopian reality, who knows what they will do for mother Russia. What is clear is that Putin trusts no one and sure non of the elites has much saying on the nuclear decisions as he doesn't trust them

Hopefully you are right. I hope for Ukrainian total victory and a total overthrow of Putin and Russia stop hostilities but I don't see it happening. Or Ukraine will not win, or it can win but it will be conversations behind the scenes with Russia assuring that they will engage with nuclear strikes if they cant get something, anything or Ukraine wins but there is nuclear attacks

with that I am not saying that Ukraine has to surrender to blackmail at all. Is just how I see it.

Might be other fringe scenarios like Putin dies or gets assassinated well before the Ukrainians succeed and the new Russian leader says we let you free. But well. Will see. At this point is just my opinion based on assumptions

 

[Bosws87]

Hey, Is what I believe not a certainty. Would knows who has in charge of the nuclear strikes and their mentality and how warped is it. Seeing how some russians have this dystopian reality, who knows what they will do for mother Russia. What is clear is that Putin trusts no one and sure non of the elites has much saying on the nuclear decisions as he doesn't trust them

Hopefully you are right. I hope for Ukrainian total victory and a total overthrow of Putin and Russia stop hostilities but I don't see it happening. Or Ukraine will not win, or it can win but it will be conversations behind the scenes with Russia assuring that they will engage with nuclear strikes if they cant get something, anything or Ukraine wins but there is nuclear attacks

with that I am not saying that Ukraine has to surrender to blackmail at all. Is just how I see it.

Might be other fringe scenarios like Putin dies or gets assassinated well before the Ukrainians succeed and the new Russian leader says we let you free. But well. Will see. At this point is just my opinion based on assumptions

Nothing like that, it will be solved by peace once one side exhausts all options and realises they are on the way to total defeat then a compromise will be made.

 

[4bars]

Nothing like that, it will be solved by peace once one side exhausts all options and realises they are on the way to total defeat then a compromise will be made.

Hopefully you are right

 

[VorZakone]

Patrushev is one of Putin's inner circle figures.

 

[Raoul]

Patrushev is one of Putin's inner circle figures.

Given Russia's performance over the past year, one would be surprised if they could defeat Poland in a war, much less the entire EU (which of course is nonsensical since most of the EU is also NATO).

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[MoskvaRed]

Patrushev is one of Putin's inner circle figures.

I hope the 52% who voted for Brexit and called the rest of us traitors are proud that they helped implement a key foreign policy.objective of a hostile state. As for destroying the European unity, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has in fact helped revive it to the extent of even managing to re-militarise Germany. Patrushev is, like Putin, a member of the Soviet-reared gerontocracy who will hopefully leave the stage before too long.

 

[Raoul]

So they still don't want peace apparently.

Another good reason why there won't be peace anytime soon.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[JuriM]

A lot so far reliable pro Ukraine channels suddenly posting different videos of very well equipped Ukraine forces moving or on command posts with tanks and other western machinery.

Quite too many to be a sudden coincidence, some sort of info operation underway.

 

[dove]

Some insane footage.

Spoiler: youtube